Economists Uncut

Are the Trump Tariffs about to COLLAPSE Multiple Countries? (Uncut) 02-02-2025

Are the Trump Tariffs about to COLLAPSE Multiple Countries?

The danger is that it leads to a trade war. The danger is that it leads to what happened in the 1930s with the smooth poly tariffs. You get a trade war worldwide on economies that are already over leveraged and what happens is the economies are slowing down so there’s less cash flow and that means there’s less cash flow to go around to pay debt service, et cetera.

 

A trade war could turn into a disaster. So I don’t know. I’m skeptical of the tariffs.

 

You’re watching Capital Cosm. My name is Danny. Today’s guest is the one and only Bill Holter.

 

Bill, thank you so much for coming on the show, my friend. Thanks for having me back, Danny. For sure.

 

Let’s dive right in here, Bill. What is the most topical story on your radar screen at the moment? I think it’s got to be gold. Gold’s over 2,800 this morning.

 

Silver’s barely keeping pace with it, but gold is in the spotlight. Yeah. So let’s go ahead and dive right into some of the rationales behind this recent gold move.

 

What do you think is driving this move up? There’s clearly chatter about these tariffs hitting Canada and Mexico as of the time of this recording tomorrow on the 1st of February, a 25% tariff. Many are attributing it to that, but what’s your view? Well, first off, if you put gold as cargo, if you put it this week, it’s not going to be here before the 1st. I think that the tariff story, it’s a convenient excuse.

 

It may shine a spotlight on gold, but I really don’t believe that it is the tariffs. Actually, I think you need to go back a year and a half ago, or not quite a year and a half ago, when the United States sequestered the 300 billion of Russian reserves. I think that’s when you saw gold bottom, I think it was October, November of 23, gold bottomed.

 

And then from there, it’s been like a tractor in first gear. And I think you definitely have, and we know this because they’ve tracked it back through Switzerland. China has just been a methodical, voracious buyer.

 

And metal from London, those are 400 ounce bars, and China likes kilo bars. So what happens is that the metal goes from London to Switzerland, it gets recast, and then shipped out to China. And China has just month after month, even though they went, what, three, four, five months without even reporting.

 

So it was said that China was no longer buying. I don’t know that either. I think China has bought all along.

 

As I said, I think the tariff explanation is it’s convenient. And I think really what’s happening is the gold is finally running low. We went for years, probably five, six, seven years, where the EFPs, the exchange for physicals in both silver and gold in London exploded.

 

And those are, they’re hard to see through, to see the actual settlement, as opposed to Comex. If Comex doesn’t deliver, it’s one way or the other, either they deliver or they don’t. The EFPs are behind the scenes, and you really can’t get a paper trail as to whether they actually got settled or didn’t get settled.

 

And there’s been a premium, as we’ve seen, there’s been a premium in China as high as $3, $4 in silver and $50, $60 in gold. Now that premium started to emerge. And yes, it did widen when the tariff talks began, but there is premium now in London over New York.

 

So it’s kind of, it kind of doesn’t really smell right, because what you would have in a true arbitrage, the buyer would buy at the lower cost zone, which is New York, and they’d be delivering into London. Whereas what it looks like now is London is delivering to New York. And again, I think that’s because of the February Comex deliveries for gold.

 

And I think you’re going to see the same thing in March with silver. So silver is going to be right behind gold and the premium on London silver is over a dollar now. And that’s way, way, way too much.

 

Why is there this lag between the gold and silver emptying out? Well, you got to understand that they’re staggered. I think there’s only two months or three months where both gold and silver have the same month of active deliveries. Some months, there’s like no deliveries at all.

 

They’re just, they’re throwaway months. But the next month for gold is February and the next big delivery month for silver, I believe is March. Understood.

 

And where do you see the end game of all this? Do you see gold being slammed back down after we’ve seen this rise here in the price or what happens next from here? Well, I would first ask slam down by who? The slammers over the last 20, 30 years? No, they’re going to be lost. They’re going to be out of power. In other words, you have to have metal to deliver if you’re going to slam the price.

 

They do slam the prices with naked shorts, gold nor silver behind the contracts. But let’s say we run to 3,000 or get through 3,000. They can sell paper contracts and yeah, that’ll hurt the price for a day or a couple of days.

 

But if they don’t have that metal to deliver against it, we’re going, logically, the market is going toward a, if you want to call it a cash and carry mode, where in the past, there were very few deliveries. Now there’s more deliveries. And you’ve got China siphoning gold out of London.

 

And now you’ve got gold being siphoned out of London to come to New York. I don’t think you’re going to see a big slam on gold this time around, simply because the big buyer happens to also be the strongest hands. That’s China.

 

And China is not going to let gold go, let’s say, pick the number $3,000. China has too big of an appetite for gold to allow the price to drop to say 21, 22, $2,300. I don’t see that in the cards at all.

 

China being the biggest holder, and they are the biggest holder. I could have shown you five, six, seven years ago that China had already amassed 25,000 metric tons versus the supposed 8,300 tons that the US has. There’s not been an audit done since the 1950s.

 

And we can clearly see the paper trail of metal being delivered into China. And basically, for the most part, gold does not exit China. They are the ones who are going to be able to control the price.

 

And you’ve got, call it, pretty close to half the world in the bricks. All these central banks have been buying now, going back to when the Russian reserves were stolen or sequestered. We don’t call it stolen.

 

Russia calls it stolen. And the rest of the world views it as stolen. And that’s why central banks are buying gold as opposed to holding treasuries.

 

Because if the US can do it to Russia, who on the planet could we not do it to? Or who would we not do it to? We would do it to anybody and everyone. Could we do it to China though? Could we do it to China? We’re a lot more dependent on China than we are on Russia though. Correct.

 

It would be very difficult. That would bring in meltdown scenarios on both sides of the Pacific. Financial meltdown.

 

Because I mean, China is extremely levered up just as the US is wildly over-leveraged. What is a free market gold price due to the rest of the… I mean, there’s obviously been a reason why a lot of us have speculated that the metals prices have been suppressed. What was the reason of suppressing these metals prices? And now that they are seemingly becoming let loose into the wild, what are some of the effects of that? Yeah, very simple.

 

And this goes back at least to the late 1960s with the London gold pool. For what reason did they want to suppress the gold and keep it at $35? And the simple answer is because it’s the direct competitor to the US dollar. And as the price of gold goes higher, that’s a vote or more and more votes for a lack of confidence.

 

And when we went off the gold standard in 1971, had we not gone off the gold standard in 1971, there’s no way the debt buildup that we’ve seen over the last 50 years could have occurred because gold was the anchor. You could only basically lend what you had. Now you can conjure dollar bills up out of thin air through borrowing.

 

So really, I mean, the reason for suppression is simple. It was to allow the US government to borrow unlimited amounts of capital. And that’s exactly what we did.

 

I mean, we blew the biggest debt bubble in the history of history. What was the second part of the question? Yeah. What happens now if they do become released, right? If the price is no longer being suppressed down, what are the effects of that moving down the line? Why does it matter that the price is no longer being suppressed? Well, it matters because an exploding gold price exposes all of the fiat currencies for their worthlessness.

 

I mean, it’s just as simple as that. Is that gold is the direct competitor to fiat currencies and a high and rising gold price illustrates the reverse, a low and collapsing purchasing power of fiat currencies. I guess you could look at it and say that it’s the ultimate end battle or end game between Austrian economics and Keynesianism.

 

Does it hurt the one as well? Does it hurt the who? Sorry, the RMB, the Chinese currency. Well, it should not because they own so much gold. I mean, if they’ve got, my guess is they probably have 35,000 metric tons.

 

That makes them by multiples, the largest holder of gold and holds more gold than the rest of the central banks worldwide collectively. So what that does is once that becomes known and widespread, what that does is it makes China basically the navigator of the gold price because they are the biggest player, they’re a continual buyer. And it basically shows the world that the BRICS half of the world Hey Bill, can you rewind back 10 seconds? You froze there for a bit.

 

Yeah. It basically illustrates that the fiat currencies are collapsing in value and China being the largest holder by far of gold, it makes them, they are the captain of the ship as far as the price of gold is concerned because they own so much of it and they consistently month after month accumulate gold. So unless China wants the price to drop, you’re not going to see the price drop.

 

And because they do own so much gold, I mean, that obviously makes the yuan, the Chinese currency, more, there’s more confidence in it because we know that, or the world knows that they’re sitting on the largest stockpile of gold. I see. And what about silver? They have been using a lot of silver as part of their consumption into building out this electrification agenda that they have.

 

Do they stand to benefit from a higher silver price? It doesn’t seem like they, it seems like they’re kind of motivated to keep the silver price down. Yeah. Just from the industrial, all the applications, the uses of silver, but remember silver, silver is going to anywhere from a three to 450 million ounce annual deficit.

 

So the supply and demand on silver is really batshit crazy as far as going, you know, four years, five years with the deficits that they’ve run. Silver, I’ve said all along, once this goes to fruition, in my opinion, silver is going to be gold on steroids. It seems like this is the perfect scenario for the mining stocks because you have this rising gold price, you have this rising silver price, the oil price seems to be pretty much constant.

 

So if you have a rising gold price going like this, and then an oil price that’s like this, the delta between the two is getting bigger and bigger and bigger. But yet these mining stocks haven’t gotten off the mat yet. I mean, doesn’t this mean that their input costs are coming down while their revenue should be going up? Why are they kind of like still subdued? Yeah, that is the theory.

 

And I go back to the 1930s, the best stock, the best company to have owned in the 1930s was Homestake Mining, because the price of their good, gold, was revalued from $20.67 up to $35, and their cost of production dropped. So yeah, that was, you know, illustrated exactly what you’re talking about. The problem is for the last since 2011, the mining industry has done a lot of wrong things.

 

I mean, they overspent, they got fat. They didn’t run the businesses correctly. And of course, that also led to less and less exploration, which means, you know, even with, say, a $5,000 or $10,000 gold price, you’re not going to see a lot more production because the deposits have not been found to be dug out of the ground.

 

Theoretically, you’re absolutely right. The mining shares should be absolute moonshots. I’m not sure what the catalyst will be, but I do believe they will wake up again.

 

And they may even put NASDAQ to shame when all is said and done. Yeah, and when they do moonshot, it’s very important to be able to choose which… Because not all of these are going to be lottery tickets. A lot of these things are going to be landmines as well.

 

And that’s why we at this channel have partnered up with Capitalist Exploits. They have a number of different resource based stock picks that they’ve outlined for their members here. And I’ve used them for over four years.

 

Super happy. They’re the ones who got me educated into this resource investing space. So if you guys want a $1,000 discount on their newsletter, I have a link to that down below for those of you that are interested.

 

Bill, let’s go ahead and shift over to some of the changes that we’ve seen given the new Trump administration. What have you seen so far that you like? And if there’s anything that you don’t like as well, let me know. And what are some of the implications of that down the line for the economy? And America as a whole.

 

Yeah, I think the executive orders by and large have been fabulous. I think some of his cabinet picks leave a lot to be desired. I mean, just an example would be Marco Rubio.

 

There’s the Secretary of State and the guy’s a war hawk. He would sign on to, in my opinion, sign on to attacking Iran overnight. I’ve not seen what’s actually in the anti-semi executive order, but I think that’s very dangerous.

 

If a president believes that he can turn off the First Amendment rights of citizens, if they’re speaking regarding, in this case, Israel. So I think that’s a problem. And I really thought it was a super bad look for Trump to come out with the two crypto coins, the Trump coin and the Malania coin.

 

I mean, I thought that looked like PT Barnum reincarnated. Yeah, what was up with that? What was the motive behind those coins? Was just a quick cash in before he was president? I don’t know. You’d have to ask him.

 

What do you make of his tariff policy though? Because I usually get mixed responses from my guests. Some of my guests are in favor of the tariffs and they don’t see them as inflationary whatsoever. Some do.

 

Where do you kind of stand in this debate? Well, I mean, without a doubt, there’s going to be some inflation. If we have tariffs, there will be inflation in some goods because the supply will slow down. If a country is being tariffed on their goods, why not sell it somewhere else in the world where it’s easier to sell? So there’s going to be a supply issue of whatever.

 

I don’t even know. I don’t think anybody knows what exactly is going to be tariffed. But the danger is that it leads to a trade war.

 

The danger is that it leads to what happened in the 1930s with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. You get a trade war worldwide on economies that are already overleveraged. And what happens is the economies are slowing down so there’s out less cash flow.

 

And that means there’s less cash flow to go around to pay debt, service, et cetera. A trade war could turn into a disaster. So I don’t know.

 

I’m skeptical of the tariffs working. And they’re talking about doing away with income taxes. I mean, wow, in such a short time frame, has anybody really thought through what any or the collective actions, what this is all going to lead to? Yeah.

 

What do you make of that? Can we actually remove income tax from our revenue stream? Because it’s like in the trillions of dollars of revenue annually, and surely tariffs can’t make up for the revenue that the government takes in just purely. Tariffs can’t replace the income tax revenue that’s coming in. So what’s the reason there? Yeah.

 

Tariffs, they cannot totally replace income tax. But remember, it wasn’t until what, 1913 that we actually had an income tax. Tariffs are what supported the country.

 

But we’ve become so bloated. And speaking of bloated, that’s another thing, the DOGE, you know, Department of Government Efficiency. And I’ve talked about this several times now.

 

And not many people, I don’t think, you know, I’m not hearing really anybody else talking about it. So maybe it’s not as important as I think. But let’s say that DOGE actually does find a trillion dollars, or $2 trillion.

 

And remember, these are probably going to be on annual basis because they’re funded every year. So let’s say that they’re successful, and they find a trillion or $2 trillion that they can cut. What does that actually do? Yes, it cuts out waste.

 

But that’s a couple trillion dollars that doesn’t get borrowed. And more importantly, doesn’t get spent. Because when it gets spent, it’s part of the GDP, right? So if we’re running around saying, you know, look at us, we’ve got, you know, 2%, 3%, 4% growth, and you take $2 trillion out, now you turn the negative, the number negative, we would actually, I mean, there’s a case to be made that you could go back 20, 30, 40 years.

 

And if we were not deficit spending, we would add negative growth every single year. Yeah. But wouldn’t that also be offset by the removal of the income tax? So if people have more money to spend, because they get to keep their income and not have a tax, wouldn’t that kind of level things off? That sounds nice.

 

But then what happens to the existing debt service, which this year is going to be $1.5 trillion? How’s that going to get paid? Yeah. And the stuff is already in place. That’s the problem.

 

All of this is already put in place. The debt is already there. You can’t erase it.

 

You can’t ignore it. You have to pay it. Yeah.

 

And it’s being rolled over at much higher rates than it was, that it originated from. Right. Right.

 

And that’s the, that’s the problem. That’s the problem with, with the, and I failed to mention before, when you cut money out of a Ponzi scheme, what happens? It collapses. And that’s what, what higher interest rates effectively does.

 

When rates go higher, you’ve got less people that can afford to buy a house because they can’t afford the debt service. You’ve got fewer and fewer entities that it makes any sense to refinance. I mean, that’s how this bubble blew up.

 

Interest rates peaked in 1982 and was a jagged edge down all the way until what, 2021, 2022. And then they started, every time they tried to raise interest rates, they would pop something. They would break something.

 

And then once something broke, then they would reflate. They’d lower interest rates again, print money, put it into the system and things would, you know, things would start to reflate. That’s the problem with a Ponzi scheme.

 

If interest rates are going higher, that no longer allows the, the mortgages to be refinanced. And what has that done to the commercial real estate market? You’re already seeing that is completely crushed. I think there’s a trillion or a trillion five this year alone.

 

It’s got to be rolled over and it’s not going to, it’s not going to roll over on favorable terms. Is there any way to, to remedy this or is this kind of like an inevitability at this point? I think it’s an inevitability. That’s what I mean when I say the math is the math, you cannot change the math.

 

In my opinion, the best thing that could happen is the system collapses and then we start brand new, but we don’t start with a federal reserve that lends money to the government and the government has to pay it. Why doesn’t the government just issue money itself? We take that point for granted. What was the reasoning behind that? What was the reason that the Fed gave for that process? What is the reason for the creation of the Fed? Is that what you’re asking? Why do we have to get a loan from the Fed to create our own money? Because the Fed was created in 1913 and from that point forward, they created money and the reason behind the creation of the Fed basically is so that the bankers can get paid by governments all over the world for borrowing money as opposed to issuing debt-free, interest-free money.

 

The world would be a much better place now if it was not for the central bank and your government. I believe there’s only two or three countries in the world that don’t have the same system that we do. I think every other country pretty much follows the same rules and procedures.

 

Right. That’s why the entire world is a Ponzi scheme. If you thought about it, and it was thought about in 1913 when the Fed was created, but if you think about it, where we stand today is exactly and the only place we could have gotten to is too much debt, where the debt service at some point can no longer be serviced.

 

The only place we could have gotten to is debt saturation and that’s where we are. Is there any country that is in a similar predicament as we are that could come out ahead after a collapse? The first one that comes to mind is Russia because I think Russia is what, 17% debt to GDP. The US is 130% debt to GDP.

 

If the whole system collapsed and all banks across the globe collapsed, including Russian banks, Russia is a hard asset country. It’s not a financialized country. The West has become completely financialized and one of the offshoots of that, we’ve seen this for 30 years now, is that the manufacturing has been offshored to cheaper jurisdictions.

 

What is the West left with? A highly financialized system where if something started like the L.A. fires, the system burns up, but what’s left? There’s no manufacturing. It’s gone. The countries like Russia that have manufacturing, they’ll be able to start up very similar to what the US was after the Great Depression and going into World War II.

 

We were the manufacturing base or becoming the manufacturing base of the world and now we’ve relinquished that completely. By that same token, we’ve become the consumer base of the entire world. If you cut off countries from the US market, that’s a pretty big deal as well, isn’t it? Then what happens in the US? I guess the best way to put this is you can never borrow or spend your way to prosperity long-term.

 

The bottom line is long-term prosperity is through manufacturing growth. It’s through growth of the real economy as opposed to the financialized economy. Does debt to GDP matter if there’s someone out there willing to buy our debt though? As long as there’s someone out there buying USTs, debt to GDP could be 150%.

 

It wouldn’t be material, would it? Yeah, it would be material because the size only gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Where’s that capital going to come from? The capital to fund the US deficit has come from foreign nations and at this point, we’re very close in my opinion to a point in time where the last and only buyer of any resort is the Federal Reserve and that is pure outright monetization. You can’t monetize your way to prosperity.

 

That’s the bottom line. You can hyperinflate your way out of it, I guess, but that’s transferring the debt burden from one party to another. Yeah, but think about hyperinflating.

 

What does that do? It’s a wealth transfer from- That destroys them completely. It’s a wealth transfer, but it’s going to affect pension plans. It will affect insurance companies, insurance rates.

 

You’re talking about these assets that have been based on a foundation of US treasuries. What you’re doing is you’re destroying the foundation. Now, does the economic or financial house stand after the foundation has been zeroed out? I don’t think so.

 

Yeah. What do you make of the current health of the markets right now? They seem to have gotten a bit of a spook earlier this week after the big deep seek reveal. It seems like it’s cooled down a bit now, but have we hit the highs of 2025 or not? That’s hard to say.

 

Could they blow it higher from here? Yeah, of course they could, but I think the deep seek scare should illustrate to people that it’s not a one-way ride. In today’s world, and I know you’re younger than I am, Danny, but in today’s world, people expect to make an investment today because they’ve seen Bitcoin, they’ve seen Nvidia, they’ve seen things go from zero to 100 in two seconds. Instant gratification.

 

The average person, exactly. That’s what I’m getting at. I mean, you go back 50, 60 years ago, 100 years ago, 200 years ago, it was slow and steady that won the race.

 

Speculations happened, but they only really happen when there’s credit available to fund the speculation. What I think we’re getting at is it’s going to be a world that’s going to move away from debt and the instant gratification, well, they’re going to be completely crushed mentally that I bought it today and wait a minute, I’m down 50% in three weeks. Yeah.

 

I’m also hearing these claims that China may have just stolen some of OpenAI’s code and leveraged that, but even so, it’s still- Yeah. I mean, even so, it still performs at a higher level than OpenAI. It may be the case that OpenAI might be stowing away more advanced models from the public, which I wouldn’t doubt, obviously.

 

It’s very interesting. We had this rollout of Alibaba’s new model, which surpasses DeepSeek now. I don’t think anyone really knows what’s coming down the pike, especially with AI in the mix because AI can just change the game entirely and we don’t know in which direction it’ll go.

 

Well, and so much capital here in the United States had been put into AI, which those investments were rendered useless the day they were made because they’re behind the curve. In other words, the technology was already outdated before the investment was even made. Yeah.

 

And the technology advances at a level not seen before in regards to any other technology. I mean, just from 2022 with the initial rollout of ChatGBD to now, there’s a huge difference in the images created, the videos created. Do you remember Will Smith trying to eat not a hot dog, but like a pasta bowl or something? The running joke was, until we figure out how to get Will Smith to eat noodles correctly, then we haven’t figured out AI.

 

Well, we’ve done that now. Right. And so it’s moving at a rapid pace.

 

And I am personally of the belief that in four years’ time, we’re going to look back and it’s going to be a different world, much more different than- Yeah. One way or another, that’s going to happen. Yeah.

 

I think the advancements are going to come really, really quick. Because when this stuff goes, it goes exponential. Right.

 

And you mentioned there’s talk that China stole the technology. I would say, well, if you were China or if you were a BRICS nation, you would look at it and say, okay, so they stole it. You already stole $300 billion of Russian treasuries.

 

You have weaponized the SWIFT system. That’s your big stick. Yeah.

 

You’ve lost the moral high ground as the rules-based order. There are no rules if you’re living the law of the jungle. Well, yeah.

 

I mean, if you go back, this goes back pretty far to when I was in college in the late 70s, early 80s, what you just said, a rules-based society, capital flowed into the United States because we were viewed as the most stable nation and had a hard and fast rule of law that if you broke, you were punished. But now it’s the nation, it’s the government itself that’s breaking the rules, breaking the laws like a bull in a China shop. And it’s like, it doesn’t matter.

 

We make the rules. Who cares? But it does matter. It matters to the rest of the world.

 

The world does not revolve around the United States. It did in some respect for many, many years, but we’ve lost the edge in so many different areas and militarily included. I mean, we still don’t have, we really don’t have hypersonic weapons.

 

Yeah. If you’re a foreign investor, you’re definitely less incentivized to put your capital in the U.S. versus 20 years ago, especially back then you had the confidence of the U.S. court system to not be abused and politicized. And your capital was safe because if you knew the rules, you knew that your capital was in good hands.

 

But that’s slowly being eroded away. I’m not saying that the U.S. isn’t a good place to put capital, but certainly there’s still capital being flown into the U.S., but go ahead, Bill. Right.

 

And that illustrates, you go back 30 years ago or even 10, 15 years ago, if something bad happened internationally, capital would flow into the dollar. The dollar would immediately strengthen. Now that illustrates what we were talking about at the very, very beginning of the dollar versus gold.

 

You’re asking, why has gold been suppressed? Well, I can remember back in the late 90s, early 2000s, where things would happen that absolutely no ifs, ands, or buts, two plus two equals four. If something happened, the price of gold should rise and you’d see it go down one or 2% in a day. And that’s the illustration right there is it’s the dollar, the dollar on one side, gold on the other side.

 

Where are foreigners going to flock to? What is the world’s safe haven asset? And what’s happening is that the belief system is becoming gold. Exactly. Gold is coming into the system, not going out.

 

Yeah, totally. Well, it’s been a fascinating interview here, Bill. Anything else you want to mention before you wrap up? Not really.

 

I mean, the pace of change, as you just mentioned, is just unbelievable. I mean, think back, we’re not even, what are we, 10 or 11 days into the administration, it seems like he’s been president for six months already, just because so much information hits day after day. I mean, you’re getting bombarded with 10, 12 important pieces of information every day.

 

And what used to take 10 years is now happening in two weeks time. Yeah. I mean, I have personally contemplated just doing all of these interviews live from now on, because there’s a one to two day lag between me recording an interview and getting it out.

 

And in some cases, just having a lag of two days makes the video kind of fail. Yeah. Right.

 

Yes. And I mean, that’s with so many different things in society today. Like we were just talking about AI.

 

It was obsolete before it started. Yeah, totally. So for people who want to see and hear more of your work, Bill, where can they find you? Sure.

 

Yeah, you can go to my website. It’s just BillHolter.com. If you are looking to do a precious metals business, that’s what I do. I’m a precious metals broker.

 

You can reach me directly at my business email. It’s bholter at proton.me. Excellent. We’ll have the link to that down below.

 

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