UBS Forecasts $38 Silver (Uncut) 03-10-2025

UBS Forecasts $38 Silver

UBS has come out with a report liking the silver more than they admit we feel. The report reiterates their positive view of silver for 2025 and extends it out to 2026 for Q1 of a price of $38 an ounce. That’s conservative, but it’s also realistic.

Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning.

I’m Vince Lancey. Today, we’re tentatively titling the GoldFix Morning Rundown as the UBS likes the silver more than they admit. Let’s start with the markets.

10-year yields are 4.23, down 7. The dollar is 103.70, down 20. The S&P 500 is 56.88, down 75. The VIX is 26.32, up 3 percentage points, which is 12% in volatility terms.

Not small. Gold is 2904, down 4. Silver is 3249, unchanged. Copper is 464, down almost 1.5 cents.

WTI is 67.46, down 26. This is getting very interesting, the way it’s showing up, by the way. We’ll come to that in a second.

Natural gas, 468, up 19. Bitcoin, 83 and change, up 2,500. Palladium, 953, up 8, almost 9. Platinum, 968, up a half a buck, give or take.

Gold, silver stable, slightly softer. Soybeans, corn, wheat. 10, 11, 461, 562, unchanged offer, up 4 cents, up 9 cents.

Okay, interesting. Why? Because just starting with the 10-year yields and going through, say, just the financials, that’s a recession. That’s a market saying, pronouncedly saying recession.

Yields are lower because people are putting their money in bonds, out of stocks. The dollar is weaker because it anticipates Fed funds beginning to lean towards easing, whether they do or not is a different story. And you could also look at it as people taking their money out of cash and putting it into bonds.

The S&P 500 is, of course, the one that tells the story, down 77. Excuse me. The VIX, 2634, up 12.6%. And you’re like, oh, 12%, that’s a lot.

Yeah, it is a lot. But it is a lot because the VIX is volatility. And volatility is up 3% itself.

That’s a massive move for volatility. When you trade options, a 1 percentage point move in volatility in a day is pretty big. 3% in the VIX and the fact that they’re letting it.

I’m looking at this and I’m saying, in echoing something that was said two years ago and six months ago from various people, and we’ve said it as well, the Fed put is no longer under stocks. And oh, yeah, stocks are lower. Of course, I’m going to say that, right? No, it’s because the volatility in these markets was massive in the bond market, measured by something called move.

And although I don’t think the volatility has decreased that much in move or in bonds, it has markedly increased in the VIX. So I feel like it’s official. The Fed is no longer going to put a put option under stocks.

They’re going to put a put option under bonds, because bonds are more important than stocks. You’ve got to show that stability in bonds, which is going to accelerate attraction into bonds. Anyway, I’m bullish bonds.

There you go. All right, so let’s get to the main events here. These are the stories you put out since Friday.

Gold, the gun bankers pretend they don’t need but can’t live without. Listen, Dave Kranzler and Eric Young on metals, miners, and more. That’s a hour and 40-minute discussion, interview discussion with those guys.

That’s part one. Part two will be out later on today. The end of American empire and rise of German autonomy.

That’s not a proprietary piece, but that’s from a really smart CIO who we read frequently, and he’s got a neoliberal bent, but he knows markets really well. So when you read this, you might disagree with it, as people that I’ve been talking to about it disagree with it. But the factual things stated, you can’t be argued with.

Tom Lewanda, Martin Olmstead, and Alex Cranor. These two posts, side by side, this is Europe rising, okay? And this is Europe disintegrating. So I think these are two interestingly juxtaposed.

Hartnett, for the founders, we sent out, I’m sorry, that’s for premium. We didn’t do a Hartnett discussion this weekend. We sent out a couple of additional reports with that.

Sunday, founders discussion. There was no discussion, but there was plenty to give the founders there. Recession dominoes start to fall.

That went out this morning in Goldfish PM, oil, copper, and gold. That’s in the last three days. Here’s the front page.

You can see the podcast. That’s unlocked, the gold gun image. That’s paywalled, and the institution placed big bets.

We’re going to leave that there, because by the time, no, the media is catching up. Let’s put it that way. They’re talking about Goldman suggesting 3,300.

No, they’re already putting out bets for 3,500. So let’s catch up, folks. All right, UBS likes the silver more than they admit.

Now, UBS, which has been bullish and accurate on gold while being responsibly conservative for the past 18 months, we’re not big fans of UBS historically, so we’re being honest here. They’ve been constructive and also very, very conservative on silver. The latest missive that they have remains conservative, but their needle is moving ever so slightly to the upside without actually saying it.

And in the context of prior reports, we think much more than they admit. We cover that report here and offer fresh insights into its contextual importance in premium today. So the title of that report is Reiterating Our Positive View.

UBS sets a first quarter 2026 silver price target at US dollars 38 an ounce, extending second half of 25 forecast and suggests selling downside risk for yield. We would just add there right up front, not for the faint of heart. Global silver demand is expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2025.

Driven by industrial applications, silver supply is increasing, however, for the first time in a long time, with mine production increasing by 2%. So that’s significant, and there’s implications as to where or how you put your money into silver. All right, US tariffs have increased US silver gold prices, creating front-loaded demand, but this effect may not last.

US tariffs cause global deflation and domestic inflation is what we add to that. We will discuss all these concepts in more depth in premium. The gold-silver ratio is projected to decline from 91 to below 80, assuming gold trades around three dollars an ounce.

Okay, there you go. A little bit more on that. There’s their forecast.

You’ll notice that all they did was they added Q1 for March 26, and they tacked on 38. So it’s not an upgrade, but it’s an extension. And you don’t extend unless you’re about to come out with something more.

I don’t know, I could be wrong, but I have not been wrong about UBS for the last 18 months. And for the record, UBS in December of 23 put out a report, the night gold was spiked and slammed by the BIS, and they put out a tremendous comment. And they said, we’re constructive and we’re bullish on gold, but don’t buy it after this.

And I was like, oh my goodness, it was completely honest. Anyway, so there you go. And that’s where we became enamored with UBS again.

All right, the Fed put is a bond option, but we’re going to discuss more of that at bottom. The Fed put is a bond option, to our point in the morning a little bit earlier. First of all, the U.S. House Republicans unveiled a stopgap funding bill that would keep the government funded through September 30th.

They always do that. It took just a few hours for Frederick Merz, as I say, to conduct one of the sharpest U-turns in recent political history. It’s two coalition parties, Germany, I’m sorry, agreed to loosen the country’s constitutional debt break and inject hundreds of billions into Germany’s military and aging infrastructure.

The FT is hilarious. And this is the end of conservative stuff. It’s an end to conservative dogma.

But ideological bullshit aside, it’s a big deal. It’s a big deal. This is a Berlin Wall type of thing.

I’m not saying it’s going to do what the Berlin Wall did, which by the way, is bullish for stocks and then bearish for stocks. I think. It could have been the other way.

It’s been, I’m old. But it has an effect. It creates deficits.

It creates spending. You just have to pay attention, right? It’s flexible. It’s a big deal.

Germany’s going to replace the U.S. and Europe. Let’s look at it that way. If the U.S. is not going to defend Europe, Germany is.

Because Germany just said, we’re going to spend a shit ton of money on infrastructure and military. And the rest of Europe said, thank you for saving us. So as Germany goes, so goes Europe.

With all the implications and risks of that. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell laid down concerns over U.S. growth after U-turns by Donald Trump’s administration. Disappointing jobs numbers and a tumultuous week in financial markets.

Hence, the bond put, in my opinion. And you can read that. We’re done with the mainstream media types talking about that stuff.

All right, geopolitics. There’s a lot, but we just want to go through one of these. China on Saturday announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, adding that a 25% levy would be placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada soon.

That’s CNBC. First of all, rapeseed is huge. It’s important, but it’s not irreplaceable.

So I think something like 80% of China’s rapeseed imports come from Canada. So if you cut that off, that hurts Canada. Can rapeseed be replaced? Well, yeah, they’re going to get more of it from Russia, right? Anywhere you grow wheat, you grow rapeseed.

So Ukraine, out. Canada, you know, Ukraine’s off the market, right? Think about it that way, right? So Russia’s going to be exporting more rapeseed to China, is my guess. But when you don’t have a lot of things that you’re exporting, right, if you want to simplify it, Canada exports oil and food, right? So if you stop buying one of their products, you’re not buying a big portion, potentially, of their GDP.

And, well, why are they doing that? Well, we believe, I believe, that it’s a game of flexing before negotiations, right? So what are we doing? We’re trying to weaken the periphery around China, right? If the BRICs do something, we’re going to tariff them. Basically, you make China have to shoulder more of the responsibility economically for the region. And Trump’s style with allies is to play bad cop and then good cop, hopefully.

So he’s playing bad cop with China, right, which is, you know, neither here nor there, but that’s what he’s doing. And so China’s saying, OK, then we’ll play bad cop with China. So what China’s doing is they’re attacking the periphery, weakening the core, right? So Trump, if he continues to play bad cop with Canada, he’s really exacerbating it.

And we have to live with Canada, right? You have to live with each other. So at some point, I think if Trump’s doing it right, he’s going to go from bad cop to good cop. And then all of a sudden, China looks like an even worse cop.

Hopefully he does something like that. Anyway, there you go. Data on deck, CPI and PPI this week.

CPI is expected to be 0.3% for February expected. Previous was 0.5%, sorry, right? And PPI is 0.3% expected, 0.4% previous. So let’s do a quick summary and a final market check before going through the premium section.

Right, so there’s the markets there, right? And on a Monday, I like to look at the weekly and then look at the weekly. So the euro top left-hand side continues to strengthen. So the dollar continues to weaken.

Because Europe is going to spend money and the US is going to have recession. You’re like, OK, that makes sense. Bottom left-hand side, the bund bounces a little.

That’s not the yield, that’s the actual bund. The bund bounces a little bit, which is pretty encouraging. It’s only one day, but to give you an idea, there is a bounce from the bund.

Maybe it’s a dead cap bounce. But there is a continuation in the euro strengthening. And so taken together, you can look at that and say, well, it’s good for Germany.

It’s good for Europe. And the euro is going to continue strengthening because the dollar, the bloom is off the rose on the dollar. That ship has sailed.

Trump needs a weaker dollar, and he’s not unhappy about it. Silver top right-hand side starts off the week unchanged with stocks down 80. The precious metals S&P 500 portfolio is done.

I mean, I could be wrong. But I think that whole MAG 7 AI, I say AI cube because I have that short. I think miners are, look, I’m just, if you need to own stocks, you should be long miners.

If you want to own precious metals, you should own miners. That’s it. With a nice dose of short stocks, short a basket of other stocks against it.

Silver’s weak, great recovery, unchanged. Gold’s weak, good recovery, unchanged for the three weeks combined. Not bad considering.

1. Individually speaking, so we’re going to talk about silver from the UBS perspective. But this was, you don’t rarely, you rarely see trends in silver, right? You see volatility in silver, right? So this is a volatile trend, rejected, and now touching at the bottom area of the trend.

I mean, this is, when’s the last time you saw a really, I mean, we’re seeing more and more, but V-shaped bottoms in silver? No, that’s something you see in gold, right? So gold, trend gets a little bit ahead of it, stops down, back on the trend. Draw your line, back on the trend. You’re like, oh, it’s back on the trend.

But that’s the point. When you have a trend line and it’s been violated, and then it goes back up above it, that reaffirms the trend. It doesn’t weaken the trend.

It reaffirms it. It means that whoever was buying in here said, all right, let’s come back and buy it again, right? Of course, you can have a downtrend here, but I’m not looking at that yet until I see a market that gives up the ghost in different areas. Okay, all right, so stay with us.

Before we go into premium, just as a summary, UBS has come out with a report liking the silver more than they admit we feel. The report reiterates their positive view of silver for 2025 and extends it out to 2026 for Q1 of a price of $38 an ounce. That’s conservative, but it’s also realistic.

They’ve also released reports on platinum and palladium, which we will discuss over the next couple of days. All right, I’m Vince. Catch you later.

Thanks for watching.