Did Trump Trade War Just Set Off (Uncut) 04-10-2025

Did Trump Trade War Just Set Off a GLOBAL BUST OR MELT UP? | David Hunter

There’s a good chance we’re going to go into recession on this. We’re going to have negative GDP in the second quarter, I would guess, and who knows about third quarter yet, but so I think you’re going to have as you move forward in the next weeks and a couple months ahead, you’re going to have weaker economy. I think it could be explosive in terms of, again, it may not last, but for a period of time, we could go from a narrative that says, oh, wow, Trump is blowing up the world and this is going to end up in a depression to, oh, wow, you know, he’s actually negotiated some good things here.

We’re looking at freer trade around the world and things are going to actually bloom out of this. Whether it happens or not, that could be the narrative for several months. You’re watching Capital Cause, and my name is Danny, and today’s guest is David Hunter.

David, thank you for coming back on the show, my friend. Yeah. Hi, Danny.

Great to see you. I think we are right on the, you know, there’s so much going on. This will be a fun one.

Yeah. We scheduled this interview, actually, I think like a month and a half ago or two months ago ahead of time. I think it was January, actually.

Yeah. We scheduled it back in January. Little did I know that we were going to have all of this spicy content to talk about as it relates to the ongoing tariff wars.

The markets are extremely volatile and it’s been an extremely volatile week. But I want to get your take here. Is this the end? Is this really the beginning of the big market crash that we’ve all been kind of speculating on here on Alt Finance? Or can we see greener days ahead? So I want to get your take on all this here, David.

But before we get started, I’d like to remind you guys to hit that like and subscribe if you haven’t already. It’s a small and easy way to support the channel, and it really does go a long way. All right, David, I’ll let you take it from the top.

What is the most topical? Obviously, the market crashes, but is it the trade war with China? We have this 104% tariff that’s been enacted on China. China retaliated back with an 80 some odd percent tariff. How do you want to kick things off? What’s the signal from the noise here? Yeah, let’s address the trade negotiations first and the tariffs.

Obviously, you know, Liberation Day didn’t quite liberate anybody. But I think what we saw in reaction to that was a huge overreaction. What Trump is trying to do is not easy.

It’s reversing policies that have been in place for 40 years. When I was in college and taking economics courses, you know, there was a theory out there, basically comparative economics, comparative advantage. The theory was that you allow production to go wherever it can be done most efficiently, and you do other things.

So, you know, somebody else can make steel cheaper than the US, let them do it. If somebody else can make iron ore cheaper than here, or aluminum, which takes a lot of water power, let it happen. And ultimately, that was used over the last 40 years or more, to basically watch us lose our industrial base.

Wall Street loved it, because basically, we were able to farm that stuff out elsewhere, keep the ownership here, the companies were most of them based here. And then they had production facilities around the world that were, you know, far lower cost of production. And they made lots of profits on it.

And people were not the wiser by it, because they said, hey, look at, you know, America’s doing fine. You know, these Wall Street’s booming, you know, this is okay. And Trump, I think, is coming in recognizing, and he’s not the first one to recognize it, but he’s really the first one to do anything about it, recognizing that what we did was we gutted middle America.

You know, we destroyed the auto industry, we destroyed the steel industry, we destroyed a lot of heavy industry in this country, among other things, in farming it out, textiles, certainly. And the consumer benefited from getting cheaper product. Walmart benefited from selling cheaper product.

But we also saw our cities decay, we saw huge drug abuse, drug use, and as middle America basically went from, you know, solid middle citizens earning good livings, to where they, you know, they had to go and be a greeter at Walmart or whatever, or at least make far less wages. And, you know, our cities declined, we had a lot of crime in those cities, because of particularly unemployed males. And I think what Trump is seeing is, and what also happened was, we had a huge, huge, I mean, people really should step back and look, a huge build up in our government, we, you know, both both state, local, and particularly state and and federal, and particularly federal.

And through all that government spending, we were able to kind of disguise the fact that without that, we’d be seeing a decline in our standard of living. For most people, as it is, we have a have and have not economy where half the economy, half the people in this country, live paycheck to paycheck, and basically are trying to put food on the table and make sure they have a shelter over their head. And beyond that, they don’t have a lot, whereas those at the top end, particularly the top 10%, you know, they don’t have any worries, everything’s great stock market until this past week, or two, was at all time highs, and is up, you know, 20, 30 fold in the last 40 years, or more.

So and obviously, real estate’s gone up, etc. So, so those, those people are doing fine. But our country is getting more and more bipolar.

And there’s a real problem if more than half the country is sinking and losing standard of living, while the other half is doing well, we kind of made up, we kind of disguised that by all this government spending, a lot of, obviously, welfare and, and other entitlements, etc. But what Trump is understanding, I think, is that we’re at the point where that can’t continue. I mean, we can’t afford our debt, as it is, we can’t finance our debt, if rates go much higher.

And so I think that that spigot is going to get shut off pretty much. And meanwhile, unless we bring back industry to this country, unless we restore production facilities in this country, just being a service economy is not going to make it, you know, you’re going to continue to see us decline. And, and frankly, from a national security standpoint, we could not do what we did in World War Two, we could not shut down our, our, you know, private economy and say, we’re going to a wartime economy and building tanks and planes and missiles and everything else we need.

We just don’t have facilities or the materials anymore. So he is right to understand that this is, we’ve kind of closed our eyes to this for far too long, and it has to be reversed. The problem is reversing something like this after 40 years is near impossible, certainly very difficult.

And to do it in the timeframe he has to do it in because, you know, he’s, he’s pretty much the only one that is willing to do this and take on the crowd. He’s the only one with the backbone, I think, of any politician we’ve had in the last 40 years that is willing to take the flack and be called an idiot for doing this, etc. Most of our politicians don’t have that kind of constitution.

So, so I think he has a couple years to accomplish a lot, and he’s trying to do it. Now, in the process, it’s messy. In the process, it’s scary.

In the process, people panic, particularly on Wall Street. But I think if people step back and understand what he’s trying to accomplish, and if they understand what he understands, which is that he holds the cards, our market is by far the largest market in the world. And everybody wants a piece of it.

Everybody’s trying to sell into our market. Meanwhile, we’ve been closed from China. We’ve been closed from a lot of markets.

So we don’t have nearly the same problem if they shut down their access to their markets. He understands if you play in poker, he’s got the hand. And as somebody, I think, said the other day, China’s holding a pair of twos.

And so, you know, we have the leverage. He can basically say, this is what we’re going to do. They have other levers they can use, and they’re trying to use maybe, you know, maybe sell some of their treasury bonds or do things.

But ultimately, I think he’s trying to force people to the negotiating table. In the end, I think his goal is to have lower tariffs, to have a freer, I know it is, to have a freer trade world. And he’s trying to get that done.

But he also knows that it’s going to take some time and there’s going to be some pain. The problem with Wall Street is they shoot and ask questions later. You know, they look and they say, you know, this is insanity.

We were rolling along. Everything was fine. Why is he disrupting things? Well, you know, you have to go through this to get to the other side.

And in the meantime, it obviously caused in the last week, you know, a lot of turmoil, a lot of dislocation, a lot of lost money in Wall Street. But I do think we’re searching for a bottom there. And I think, you know, we can talk about that in terms of where the market’s going.

But I think people need to understand this isn’t as insane as all the speculation out there tells you it is. There is a method to this madness. There are a lot of countries that are understanding what has to be done, understanding they don’t have the leverage and are willing to negotiate.

And just you got to you got to kind of let it play out is what I keep saying to people on X. Right. Isn’t another objective to also try to bring down interest rates to in the process? And despite that, it seems like we’re seeing sell off in the bond market. I’m looking at the 10 year right now.

And last night it had a whopping four point five percent after dropping below four earlier in the week. What’s what’s your view on this is? Why? Why? I mean, why are bond yields spiking in a time where they should be coming down? Is there a like a foreign seller in the market trying to tit for tat Trump or what’s your what’s your view on this? Yeah. So so keep in mind that this is true across all markets, not just the bond market, also certainly stocks.

There’s a lot of rumor and speculation going around and there are all kinds of narratives out there. You know, there was a narrative that Trump and Besant were trying to push the stock market down to get treasury rates down so that they could fund the deficit, that this was all deliberate, that he wanted the market down. He wanted to crash and he’s trying to get interest rates down.

I think that’s a false narrative. That’s not it at all. Certainly, Besant said a couple of two or three weeks ago that, you know, the the goal is to get the 10 year rate down.

That’s much more significant than Fed fund rates, which control, you know, which are the overnight rate for bank interbank lending. You know, the 10 years what mortgages are priced off, a lot of loans are priced off the 10 year. So moving that down is good.

I don’t think that the government is why the rate’s going to go down, and I don’t think it’s why the rate’s going up. You know, it’s and and the other speculation that’s out there, the big one, is that China, in retaliation for what Trump is doing on the treasuries. I don’t, you know, I don’t I don’t have any way to know whether that’s true or not.

But I know that what we’re getting out there is a lot of just rumor. What I think happened now, two weeks ago, maybe less than two weeks ago, the 10 year was at 437. And I had said, probably three weeks ago now, I had said, there’s a clear head and shoulder top on the right shoulder on the 10 year at 440 to 450.

450 was the, you know, the kind of exact right side of a head and shoulder. 440, there was a gap, it had gapped down from 440. So I said, it’s going to probably go.

And this was when the rate was down. It was under 420. And I said, it’s probably going to go back to at least 440, it might go to 450.

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You won’t be disappointed and make sure to tell them Danny sent you. You know, give it time. It just had moved down quickly from, you know, 435 to 419 or something.

And sure enough, it went back. I think overnight it might have touched the 440, but on the charts, it’s like get up to 438 or 9. So it just missed that gap. And then we got the tariff story and it fell all the way down to what you said, just below 4%, I guess.

And then in the last, you know, this week has backed all the way back up and overnight, as you said, went to 450. So it went right up to that right shoulder. That’s a weird shoulder, you know, it went below the neckline and then came back into it.

So I don’t know whether you call that head and shoulder still or not, but I think all this move was, was filling in that right shoulder was, you know, filling back in where it had just about been. And even ignoring the chart pattern, you know, it was, it was almost 440 a week ago or a week and a half ago. And, you know, it’s below 440 today.

So, you know, I think people got too caught up in the day-to-day movement and particularly chartists and particularly traders. And all of a sudden the word out there was, you know, treasury, China’s dumping their treasury. We’re going to 5%.

Maybe we’re going to 6%. And I keep saying, my call on bonds is that we have pretty much seen the highs on rates or forming that, that top in rates. And that over the next six months, you could see below 3%, maybe even two and a half percent.

So I think rates come down. Certainly what Trump is doing and what’s going on with trading partners, there’s a good chance we’re going to go into recession on this. We’re going to have negative GDP in the second quarter, I would guess.

And who knows about third quarter yet. But so I think you’re going to have, as you move forward in the next weeks and a couple months ahead, you’re going to have weaker economy. Oil just went to $55 and dropped $17 in a matter of days, six days.

And so you can have lower gas prices, lower oil prices. So inflation, I don’t think is, everybody’s worried about tariffs and the impact on inflation. I think that’s more than offset by weaker economy and big drop in oil.

Housing, I think is, because of this bounce back in rates, it was already weakening. This is only going to prolong that weakness. Now, as rates come down, you could get a bounce in housing, but for the next several weeks and months, a couple months, I think you’re going to have a story that has inflation rolling over, not going higher.

So that means by May, when you get to the Fed’s meeting, you might actually see the Fed cut. Because I think the economy is going to be weaker. Inflation is going to be lower.

And you’ve got turmoil. So I think there’s a decent chance. Powell’s certainly not indicating it now.

And it’s very possible that the Fed’s going to stay in their kind of wrongheaded worry about inflation when they should be worrying about, I think, a bust that’s coming down the road. But I think there’s a decent chance that we could see a rate cut in May. Not before.

We’re not going to have an emergency cut or emergency easing, I don’t think. But I do think when the May meeting occurs, I think we could have a vote for a rate cut. Interesting that you mentioned that we could still see a global bust sometime down the line, kind of implying that what we’re in right now is not part of that global bust.

So you don’t think that’s the case? Yeah, great, great point. Yeah, I have. And everybody knows that I’ve been calling for a global bust for several years.

I’m not saying it’s, you know, my forecast was never that it was imminent. I was always saying we have to get through the end of the cycle. And then on the other side of the cycle, I think we’re going to have a global deflationary bust.

We’re getting ever closer to it. I still think it’s possible we get it by the end of this year. And it may come out of some of what’s going on here, because certainly, even though I’m predicting a big recovery in the market and everything, there’s damage being done while we speak, you know, both here and abroad.

So it’s possible this will play a role in it. But I do think what we’ll see is a recession begin maybe even in the second quarter. And, you know, it might bounce back up from that or it might just keep going lower and ultimately morph into a bust.

And the bust could start by the end of this year as possible. It doesn’t have to. It could, you know, could prolong a little bit.

But ultimately, I think we are heading for a global bust. And I define a global bust as something we haven’t seen in 90 years. It’s basically 2008-9 on steroids, where we actually go over the cliff, where we kind of pulled it back from the cliff in 2008-9.

And it means big financial crisis around the world, big bank failures, probably in other places more than here, you know, Asia, Europe. Canada’s got their banks are in far worse shape than they were back in 2008. Australia’s got a huge real estate, leveraged real estate situation in their banks.

So there’s other places that I think are more vulnerable. Our banks are going to get hit hard, too. It’s a small world.

So I think you could have potentially the biggest financial crisis in history, which would be bigger than 2008-9 as early as late this year. Like I said, it doesn’t have to be in the fourth quarter, could be first quarter next year, what have you. But I think we’re not far away.

And but this is not it. And people mistake. They see the term bust and they think I’m talking about the stock market.

There will be an 80 percent bear market, in my opinion, accompanying the absolute biggest bear market since the 2009 crash. But bust refers to the economy and the financial system. But it’ll be accompanied by a bear market that will be pretty historic.

Could this trade war between the U.S. and specifically China escalate to a point that no one’s really anticipated? Again, we have seen reciprocal tariffs on top of reciprocal tariffs now. It’s 104 percent on the part of the U.S. to China, and China’s now raised their reciprocity to 84 percent tariffs. And now you’re getting things from Scott Besant saying that maybe we should ban Chinese companies from our stock market, too.

So, yeah, from a game theoretical perspective, is China more inclined to keep escalating or is it just one big game of chicken between the two sides? Well, it certainly seems like that right now. And you’ve got two big powers and two big egos going at it. She isn’t inclined to back down from anybody either.

Trump certainly isn’t inclined to back down. And everybody can point to personality and everything, but I think Trump’s process is rational. It’s basically understanding we hold more of the cards and a lot more of the cards.

The problem is, it’s a communist country you’re dealing with. She is probably going to try to find other levers and do things like selling the Treasury. It’s certainly one thing.

But how many options does he have? And I keep hearing from people within China saying, everybody kind of assumes that we’re the open society and Trump’s the vulnerable one. But they say over there, she’s got a lot that he’s got to be careful about. They’re already in a recession.

They’ve already got a huge real estate problem on their hands. A lot of their industrial capacity has slowed down a lot. They’re in danger of actually having negative GDP, which years ago we were told if So I’m not sure that he has many cards and he’s playing what he can.

It’s unpredictable and uncertain in terms of how this will all play out. My guess is ultimately, there’ll be negotiations and ultimately both sides will recognize at some point that they can reach a common agreement in a way where we both win. China’s not going to have probably the free access to our markets, of course, that they had.

But it doesn’t mean China’s going away and they’re not going to be able to have decent access here. We need things from them. They need things from us.

I think ultimately, cooler heads will prevail. But right now, I don’t think it’s a hot head in the form of Trump that’s playing this game. He’s playing poker.

The one thing people have to step back and look at honestly with Trump—everybody wants to portray him as kind of a guy that will never back down, a guy that is all ego and all superficial ego. That’s not what it is. He understands the art of the deal.

Now, maybe the other side has read that book and says, oh, I know what he’s doing. I’m not going to fall for it. But you don’t have the cards.

So I still think in the end, if people let this play out, it’s not months away. I think you’ll see the narrative will turn from, oh my God, we’re blowing up the world, to actually, there are several trading partners that have already negotiated deals. It looks pretty good.

Others are starting to join in. And China and Europe are playing hardball, but they can’t do that for much longer. I think you could have that kind of a narrative before this month is out.

And just to be clear, that doesn’t mean the market waits for that. The market will anticipate that. I think as we’ve seen already the last couple of days, if there’s any word that there’s negotiations or that some of the countries are coming around, this market starts to move.

So it doesn’t take China and Europe, they’re kind of the last ones to fall. I think you’ll see this market reverse maybe this week. I mean, we’re certainly trying to find the bottom here.

I don’t know where it is now, so famous last words. But yeah, I think we’re in a bottoming area, trying to find the bottom. It doesn’t mean it’s straight off to the heavens, but I do think we’re, you know, bottoms are a process.

And I think we’re near a bottom, if not at one. I have probably seen the lows and the reversal is not very far away. Yeah, especially you mentioned Europe.

Europe just tacked on a 10 to 25% tariff, retaliatory tariff to our tariff. And from a European standpoint, do they really think they can, I mean, what cars does Europe have in this regard from their perspective? Like, because I can’t think, I can’t really, I’m not trying to be mean to Europe, but what cars does an entity like the EU truly have? Yeah, well, you know, Prime Minister Maloney is coming here to negotiate a deal with Italy. I can’t imagine Germany’s going to be content with all of the market dependence they have with BMW and Mercedes and Volkswagen, et cetera, among other industries.

I can’t imagine they’re going to be able to sit back and say, hey, we don’t need them. We’ll sell our cars elsewhere. We’ll sell our goods elsewhere.

So I think the ECB or the, not the ECB, but Euroland has to worry that they may not be able to hold Euroland together. I mean, at some point, these countries may say, what are we doing? So I think it may be easier in China as a dictator to kind of play hardball. I don’t think Europe’s going to be able to do that for very long.

You know, maybe they’re trying to get the best deal they can by playing hardball for a little bit. But again, I think they fold before China folds. Yeah.

And Europe’s already kind of on Trump’s shit list. I mean, sorry for the language, but I don’t, I mean, I just, I just don’t see the strategy, strategy, like the long-term strategy here, because it just, it’s, it appears that it’s only a matter of time before they do fold. And again, I think people keep thinking, if we win, they lose.

If we go back to a freer trade world, you know, free trade policies, where we’re not only do we drop tariffs way down, if not eliminate some, many of them. But we also start saying, hey, some of these trade barriers are really, you know, the whole world can grow more if we get away from this. And there’s things that you’re going to benefit from this too.

I think it could be explosive in terms of, again, it may not last, but for a period of time, we could go from a narrative that says, oh, wow, Trump is blowing up the world and this is going to end up in a depression, to, oh, wow, you know, he’s actually negotiated some good things here. We’re looking at freer trade around the world and things are going to actually bloom out of this, whether it happens or not, that could be the narrative for several months. And that’s why I’m still not, that’s not really the only reason, but that certainly is part of why I think we can still, you know, have a final parabolic melt up into a much higher high.

But isn’t there still a decent chance that we could see, you know, some sequence of unintended consequences from these actions that could potentially spark the global bust, you know, maybe as a result of this. Could the global bust manifest itself because of the trade war that we’re seeing now? Yeah, that’s, if there’s anything where I think Trump and Navarro don’t understand, it’s that, you know, yes, the bigger picture you’re doing, you know, I understand why you’re doing it, you’re doing the right thing. What we can’t really know yet, and certainly there’s a risk, is in the meantime, if enough things get disrupted, companies get hurt, it may be harder to come back from it.

And when that happens, along with central banks not understanding what they need to do, because they don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past cycle. So they say, we’re not, you know, we’re not going to print money like we did in the past, when it really is needed. That’s why you get a bust.

That’s what I think is coming. And so, you know, some of the uncertainty that’s created here, and we talk about it from a, I mean, it’s kind of the whole Musk-Navarro feud. We talk about it from a big picture standpoint, you know, Navarro can talk all he wants about the ultimate goal, and, you know, you just have to kind of let it play out.

Well, some of that takes, you know, a long time. And in the meantime, there’s a lot of fallout. Companies can’t survive on theory, you know.

And so, you know, Musk is right. He’s saying, you know, he may not be saying specifically this, but he’s certainly worried, you know, you do this to me, I got a lot of my engines or my batteries and things coming from elsewhere. And yes, I’ll adjust to it.

But I can’t adjust to it in three months, you know. So, hopefully, when these negotiations happen, that’s all factored in. And I think a lot of it will be.

So, that’s why Wall Street goes to the worst case, you know. Oh, my God, if they’re going to do all this, they’re not going to understand it. We’re going to lose companies in the meantime.

We’re going have companies’ earnings go through the floor. Well, if, you know, there’s a period of time where you’re trying to get everybody to the table, where you got to hold fast and talk tough. Once you get to the table, you know, you can say, well, this isn’t going to all play out in the next three months.

This is, as long as we agree to the plan and sign on to the plan, and everybody’s on board, you know, we can give it some time to actually, you know, to deal with the friction points. So, I think that will happen. And that’s the problem, is Wall Street shoots first.

I mean, you know, shoots first and thinks later, you know. Right. And whatever your view is on the trade war and, you know, the corrections that we’ve seen so far, I think one thing that we can all agree on is, my God, gold is indeed acting like a safe haven asset during this time.

I want to get your views on gold currently at $3,100. It did take a little bit of a haircut, but from a relative basis, gold held up fairly well. I mean, it’s exactly as you would expect from a safe haven asset.

So, what are your views on gold? And then broadly speaking on the precious metals in general, including silver? Yeah, gold, monthly, I don’t think it even undercut the March lows. You know, we’ve gotten up to where it was, you know, $31,000, almost $3,200, I think. And so, it came back under $3,000, but it really didn’t undercut the March lows.

And now, it’s turning back up again. Gold looks great. I actually am raising my target, which had been $3,400.

My letter came out today significantly higher. I’ll leave that to my subscribers. So, I can’t say the number at this point, but I raised my gold target for sure.

My silver target is $75, and I kept that the same. It’s a long ways from here still. You know, gold obviously is the safe haven, as you say.

It factors into uncertainty, et cetera. It’s a place where people do look to kind of park. Silver is a much more volatile metal that can be disrupted by the economy, et cetera.

So, silver is a little harder, but even silver looks okay here. You know, I’ve traded all the way up to $35,000, and then, you know, after Trump’s announcement, you know, traded down, I think, certainly through $30,000, down into the low $29,000 area, I think. But I think you’re going to find both metals will do very well.

As I’ve said, I’m extremely bullish right now of the stock market, the bond market, and the metals market. I think all three are going to do very well. If you look out the next quarter, the next two quarters, I think you’ve got, you know, a huge upside in all of those.

Interesting. Well, this has been a fascinating interview here, David. Anything else that we haven’t put on the table yet that you want to talk about before we sign off here? Yeah, the one that’s kind of gotten forgotten because of all the excitement out there is oil.

I mean, oil, as I say, back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil spiked from, you know, below $100,000, it was $85,000 to somewhere just over $85,000, I think, spiked to $130,000 overnight. And at that point in time, there were a lot of oil analysts saying it’s going to $150,000, it’s going to $200,000, and they continued that viewpoint for the next few months. Right when it was $130,000, I didn’t see the $130,000 coming, but right there, I said, this is a high watermark, it’s going down, it’ll go back to $85,000 at some point.

And then as it broke $100,000 and started towards $85,000, I lowered my target to $60,000. Well, we hit $60,000 overnight, or a couple days ago, I guess. And overnight, last night, it went to $55,000.

And I think I was the only one anywhere close to that kind of a call. Everybody else, most of Wall Street was still looking at energy as a kind of a safe haven and a place to buy that oil in spite of Trump’s policies would go up. Obviously, Saudi Arabia changed the story.

But I’ve been saying $60,000 for month after month after month, I probably said it on my last interview with you. I just want to point out to people, we’re there. I would presume from here, we bounce and we’re in a trading range between the mid-50s and maybe the high 60s.

Until the bust, and the bust, I keep saying it’s going to 30. And then post-bust, it’s a little early to talk about. But post-bust, because ultimately, even though I think central banks will drag their feet in responding and we’ll get the bust, ultimately, they won’t have a choice.

And we will see a money print, unlike any money print we’ve seen even bigger than 2020, could see the Fed increase the money supply by $20 trillion. And likewise, proportionally around the world, that will jumpstart a big commodity cycle. The other side of the bus, the bus might last 12 to 18 months.

So by late 2026 and 2027, I think commodities will be turning sharply higher. And I think by the early 2030s, you could see gold at $20,000. You could see silver at $500.

And you could see oil at $500. So if you see 30 in the bust for oil, once you see that, or once you get through the bust, I think oil is going to be a huge story on the other side. I always point out to people, every cycle has different leadership.

So you end one cycle and the leadership that got you there becomes kind of laggards of the next cycle, typically, because they get hit hard in the bust. Everybody owned them. For example, right now, technology, they get hit so hard in the bust that every time they lift their head, there’s another layer of sellers that say, I want to get out, whether it’s at cost or just to get out because they’re frustrated.

So you have a long distribution period. That’s what happened from the early 2000s after the dot-com bubble until probably 2010, I would guess, is the tech, the dot-com and all the big tech, Microsoft, et cetera, they spent almost a decade or certainly seven or eight years working through that distribution. That’s what you’ll see of the leadership that we have this cycle when we go on the other side of the bust.

It’s not that they won’t go back up out of a trough, but they’re not going to go to new highs easily because they have a lot of overhead resistance. Meanwhile, oil, which has not been a big player in this cycle, will be a huge beneficiary, as will most commodities in the next cycle because of all that money printing that leads to a huge demand cycle for industrials, but also industrials as we reshore will demand commodities to build steel and iron ore and tin and et cetera. So you’ll see a huge commodity super cycle, and oil will be part of that.

So people just need to kind of understand the bigger picture, not get caught in these, I call myopia at this point, the day-to-day, week-to-week stuff. It’s like, this will pass. You just have to kind of take a deep breath, hopefully not be too margined, and you’ll get through it.

And on the other side, there’s first the melt up, then a bear market, a historic bear market, and bust, and then another cycle after that with whole different leadership. Yeah. Well, it seems like you’ve laid out the chart and the map really well.

So for anyone that’s interested, that route is already charted out. So much appreciative of your time here, David. Where can people find you if they want to hear and see more? Sure.

Yeah. I’m on X every day. I still have a hard time not calling it Twitter, but I’m on X every day.

I get people on there saying, how come you’re not here when all this is happening? We could use your voice. And I’ll go, that’s your problem in your settings because I’m on here. I’m responding to a hundred people a day these days.

Yeah. I see it. Yeah.

So if you’re not seeing it, it’s because your settings aren’t set for replies. Most of my communication is replying to other people. So I’m on there every day.

My handle is at Dave H Contrarian. As somebody pointed out, I haven’t seen him in a while, but somebody pointed out the other day about a fake account where somebody had changed contrarian to contrarian. So they have an M instead of an N. And they had, I don’t know, four or 500 followers, but it had my picture, my profile, and lots of my quotes.

That’s a sign you’ve made it big. You’ve made it big, Dave. Yeah, that’s right.

I’ve got 215,000 followers. When you have big followings, as many do out on X, people want to put up fake accounts. I don’t really understand what that game is, but they do it just to be a nuisance, I guess.

Maybe some of them make money doing it, but just realize I have 215,000 followers. So if you see an account and it looks like me, just check the followers. And if it’s less than 1,000 followers or a few thousand followers, that’s a fake account.

I only have one account. So you can find me there. I also put out a quarterly letter.

I just put it out today, my second quarter letter. What else today? It comes with a price. It’s a subscription.

But if anybody has a potential interest, they can direct message me on X and I will provide details. Excellent. We’ll have the link to all that stuff down below.

So be sure to check it out, guys. Also, I’m always looking for ways to give you guys the best deals and discounts on some of my favorite products. And that’s why we have a special $1,000 discount on one of my favorite newsletters, Capitalist Exploits, as well as Gerald Salente’s Trends Journal.

That’s a 10% discount for Trends Journal, either of which are both of those links are down below. So if you are interested, be sure to check those out as well. David, thank you so much for coming on, guys.

Thank you for watching. If you’d like to support the channel, be sure to hit that like and subscribe, comment, go, Dave, go in the comments section. If you agreed with Dave’s analysis, if you disagreed with anything, that’s fine too.

Let us know what you disagreed on. We do read the comments. And so with all that said, finally, check us out on Substack, capitalcosm.substack.com, where you get early access and ad-free versions of all of my videos, as well as uncensored versions for the ones that warrant it.

And so, yeah, that’s all we got for you today, guys. I hope you enjoyed it and stay strong. See you later.

Bye. Thanks, Danny.