Kinesis Money (Uncut) 01-17-2025
Experts’ Predictions for Gold & Silver in 2025 Feat Schectman, Hemke & Kientz – LFTV Ep 206
It’s going to be interesting times, you know, Chinese say, may you live in interesting times. We live in interesting times for sure. It’s just been interesting to see how all of this plays out.
They now have to keep printing or we crash. We’ve got this ticking time bomb. Talking gold with the one and only Andrew Maguire.
Welcome to Live from the Vault. Hello everyone, my name is Shane Moran and welcome to this very special episode of Live from the Vault on this landmark 2025 occasion. We’re diving deep into the heart of the precious metals industry, exploring the truths and uncovering insights that shape our global economy in these unprecedented times.
Today, we are absolutely thrilled to celebrate not just with one or even two, but we have three remarkable experts who will be joining Andrew Maguire in the vault to pull back the curtain on the world of precious metals. So first, of course, we’ve got the one and only Andrew Maguire, a renowned precious metals expert and whistleblower, whose analysis have often sparked significant conversations within the global precious metals industry. Now joining Andrew today, we have an extraordinary lineup of guests, starting off with Andy Sheckman, President of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, whose deep understanding of the market has made him a favorite amongst our audience right here at Live from the Vault.
We have the one and only Craig Hemke, founder of the TF Metals Report, known for his meticulous research and forecasts in the precious metals sector. And last but certainly not least, we have Rob Keentz, a notable figure in the precious metals discussion, bringing his unique perspective to the table here today. So before we dive in to what promises to be an enlightening discussion, I want to encourage each and every one of you to help us celebrate this milestone event here by hitting that like button, not now, but right now.
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We’re ready to explore the nuances of the precious metals market, discuss strategies and perhaps even reveal some hidden truths about this very industry. So without further ado, let’s head over to the vault. And for this special roundtable discussion with the one and only Andrew Maguire, Andy Schechtman, Craig Hempke and Robert Keentz.
Over to you, Andrew. Thanks, Shane, for the intro. And yes, we have we have our trio of superstars here today.
And I’m not going to even use surnames here because you know them as Craig, Andy and Rob. And if you remember, they were kind enough to come in on the it was actually recorded on the 11th of December, but it was the last episode, the real episode we did. And and they really gave us a good summation of what was going on and some good ideas of what they were thinking about going ahead.
But, Craig, if I could just start with you, mate, I saw something a really great piece that you that Gata had relayed, really well thought through, so much stuff in there to digest. So basically, you I think it’s kind of summed it up, but you kind of discerned that we were in a recipe, as you put it, for another year of strong gains. So can you can you kind of I know you can’t go through it all, but, you know, what do you see? Well, thank you, Andy and Andy and Rob.
Good to see you guys. I would caution all three of you to ever, never get start writing a an annual forecast. Because I did this like about 10 years ago.
And it’s first of all, it’s it’s a losing proposition, right? Because anything you get right, it’s like, well, anybody could have seen that coming. What’s the big deal? And then everything that you get wrong is right there in the public record for all the everybody to criticize. So there’s not a lot of upside in doing it.
But I’ve been doing it now for at least 10 years. This year’s forecast I wrote between Christmas and New Year’s. And what was different about it is the initial working title became the actual title.
And I called it Inversion Reversion. Anybody can go to my TF Metals Report homepage and read it. You can go to my it’s a pinned tweet at the top of my Twitter profile, too.
So if you go to at TF Metals on Twitter X, you’ll see. I mean, anyway, it’s free to read. It’s long, but it’s done.
Inversion Reversion. What do I mean by that? I think the key to the whole, at least, you know, all these unknown unknowns. And you don’t know where the year is going to go.
But as we stand here now and look ahead, I think the key point to this is the U.S. economy, which admittedly, I’ve been expecting to roll over now for like the last two years. But when I talk about Inversion Reversion, I think most folks know the yield curve was inverted where the yield on the two year note, the short end was higher than the yield on the longer in the 10 year note for like 800 days a record. That is for whenever that happens, that foreshadows recession.
But the recession typically doesn’t begin until you uninvert. And the 10 year moves back above the two year. There’s all kinds of historical record that Fred Fed prints charts that show this, and I included one.
Well, we uninverted that inversion reverted late last year. So to me, that means we are on the doorstep if we’ve not already begun a recession in the U.S., then you could just kind of knock over the dominoes from there. If that’s the case, you know, the Fed cut back their rate cut forecast from four to two back in December.
Well, actually, we’re probably leaning more toward four or five, if that’s the case, even more maybe. And then it all goes from there. You know, that means a weaker dollar.
We may even see the Fed talking about yield curve control and things like that by the time we get to the end of the year. So you put all of that together. And again, what we know now is the year begins.
I think it sets the stage for another solid year in the precious metals. And that’s just working off, you know, the machines that buy the COMEX futures. Andy and Rob, I’m sure we can talk a lot about current market statistics as well that sure make it look like things are tightening up and God knows where all that’s going to go this year.
So anyway, thank you for pointing that out, Andy. I keep Andrew and Andy. So we know which… I’ll be Andy, I’ll be Andrew, I’ll be Andrew.
Right. You know, I invite everybody to go read his big, long thing. Talks about the macro, the gold, silver, the mining shares, that kind of stuff.
Labor of love, if you want to call it. And you can find it on that Twitter page. That’s probably the best place to look.
Yeah, I would say that was a really ballsy assessment. But I think, again, as you preface it with, that’s what you see. And I think this is for the people to make their minds up.
But you need some form of a counterintuitive narrative to what we’re seeing in the mainstream media. Andy, could you… Anything that really stands out for you? And I was going to ask you, particularly from the Miles Franklin side, from the precious metal side, and we’ve seen, you know, this divergence between strong, very strong physical wholesale demand, massive shortages of wholesale demand, wholesale bars. And yet, I know that you’re experiencing, and I think Rob too, people forced to sell smaller amounts of silver.
What’s happening there on the retail side versus that? The retail side is as slow, I guess you could say, as I’ve seen it since 2017. 2017 is kind of the Bitcoin coming out party when it really accentuated. There are larger orders that are being done by more sophisticated investors.
And I use the term sophisticated carefully. It’s not that they’re smarter than the average person. It’s just that they’re perhaps paying a little bit more attention to their finances and have accumulated a little bit more than the masses.
But in general, I would say it’s eerily quiet. And it’s interesting because we hear all of the issues with tightening on the LVMA or on the COMEX or 55 million ounces delivered off of COMEX and silver in the month of December. All of these things anecdotal that are on the wholesale side up a few steps above up the ladder are disconnected from the reality here in the United States retail.
Andrew, I think it’s Andy. I forgot which one I am right now. Anyways, I would say that a lot of it has to do with the euphoria surrounding the Trump win and rightfully so on many levels.
We’ve lived through what is considered bizarro world. And to get our culture back is a big thing. To get normal back in order is a big thing.
And, of course, he’s being touted as the crypto president. And so there’s been a lot of, I think you can say, attention moved from precious metals into other areas. And what I find most interesting about this, I’ve always been a big fan of misdirection, the art of war.
It’s pervasive. It’s used everywhere, especially at the highest levels. And as the public has been misdirected for really almost a year, if we’re being honest, into things like Nvidia, Bitcoin, and Apple, and cryptocurrencies in general, XRP, and all of these meme coins that are making people fortunes and moving away from precious metals, we see the central bankers doubling down on their efforts, doubling down over the last two months of the year, twice what the 12-month moving average is, China and Saudi Arabia doing all they can to covertly, privately, although they’ve been caught twice now, accumulating gold and listing far less than they’re actually buying.
In other words, the biggest money in the world, the central bankers who know the playbook, the biggest money in the world who’s draining the exchanges off of Comex and the LBMA, the biggest money in the world that is creating shortages in industrial-grade bars are ahead of the curve where the retail consumer is, again, being misdirected largely into areas that you could argue on many levels are overvalued and are oversold or overpurchased, overbought. And I don’t know. It’s an interesting dichotomy, Andrew, for sure it is, and one that I think if anyone was saying that business in this industry is really brisk, they’re not really quite being honest.
Wow. Okay. And Rob, and again, you’re exposed to a lot of sides, retail side, wholesale side, and also you’re in the very powerful movement about making gold a safe haven asset again.
So what are you seeing, my friend, especially from, you have people, you report, I remember on one of the episodes we did before, I think it was middle of the year, you mentioned that there were also people coming in forced to sell small amounts of gold and silver to pay debts, basically. So what do you see, mate? Well, I’d like to refer people over to the Capital Cosm channel, not my channel, but an interview I did recently, I think that video’s up to about 200,000 views now. And the reason I mentioned- Amazing video, by the way.
Sorry to interrupt you. It was amazing. Everyone should watch it.
I watched it twice, by the way, Rob. Sorry to interrupt you. So the reason I mentioned it’s not to say that I had that great video.
It’s nice to have that, by the way. And that’s all due to his channel. He does a great job on it.
But the reason I mentioned it is because Craig was mentioning earlier doing like a State of the Union. That was kind of my year-end 2024 deal on his channel. And for whatever reason, I’d planned on doing it on my own, but for whatever reason, we just got into it.
And what I see is as I travel the world, certainly I’m traveling the world to produce some content for the Sound Money Movement, for Citizens for Sound Money, where I sit on the board. And I was recently in Istanbul, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. I was at Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi there.
Previously, I was in Spain and the UK. And we may make some additional trips as well this year. So as I go around the world, it’s interesting to see that a lot of the underlying fundamentals are weak everywhere.
And it’s causing, I guess the term I’ll use is fear. People are fearful everywhere. And not only are they fearful for the financial future, they’re fearful for the security of the culture of their nations.
It’s not only do we have a financial crisis, it’s in line with a cultural crisis that we see. And geopolitical too. We can certainly talk about that with what’s going on with the wars and things.
It seems like everything’s sort of turned upside down. And I’ll use Stranger Things, the TV show, The Upside Down when I talk about we’re in the upside down. We’re in just stuff is bizarro world.
It’s just weird. It’s not what people are expecting. Yeah, it’s a different sort of thing.
And as I talked to, I had a friend that was in Abu Dhabi that he had actually been the one to come on my show. And he exposed the Perth Mint scandal. He was the CFA that did Daniel Bagario.
We did that great series. I remember that. Yeah, I met him in Abu Dhabi and we sat down and had dinner.
And it was interesting, you know, his comments about what he sees going on in the world. And it’s echoed with some of the business leaders I spoke to in Istanbul while we’re out there as well about what they see. And certainly, you know, that area of the world, we’ve seen a lot of stuff going on geopolitically.
And you can see in their minds and the way that they speak that there’s a little bit fear over there, not only economically, but what’s going to happen around us. You know, are we generally safe? You know, what’s happening to our democracies or our forms of government? And then, of course, you got Trudeau, which supposedly resigned yesterday, although some people saying he’s not. And, you know, I don’t even know, did he or didn’t he? I’ve seen different things in the media.
It seems like there is a crisis and the crisis is not just economic. And if you look at history as economic crises deepen, so too do cultural and geopolitical crises right along the line. They go hand in hand.
Gerald Salente is famous for saying when all is fells, you know, they take you to war. And certainly we’ve seen an uptick in that. And I don’t want to speak that over the world.
But, you know, what we’ve seen has certainly got a lot of us looking at is this just economic or is there something else going on? Where’s the rock coming from? Where are the problems coming from? And I would say probably cultural is as strong as any. And, you know, it behooves us to look at the cultural underpinnings and look at the relations between nations and how we treat each other, certainly. And it goes beyond economic.
But just to get to the economic real quick, what I’m seeing is a weakening, like the jobs reports are coming out and they’re weakened. A lot of the sentiment is weakened. Now, against all that, the dollar is rising and the DXY it is.
And I mean, rising against the other basket of currencies, not rising against gold or inflation. But the DXY is strong. And I think that’s the fear trade, the coming back to the dollar and forms of treasuries and things like that.
At the same time, however, that treasury market is not as strong as it was, say, in 2008 or 2000 or even in the 1970s, late 1970s, when they had that big inflation event. According to Bloomberg, the 20 year just crossed 5 percent for the first time, as I look at the chart for the first time since it briefly touched on it in 2023. But the last time it did, it was way back in 2007 before the great financial crisis.
So, you know that you’ve got the repo market losing a ton of liquidity at the yield curve inversion. I think Craig talked about a few minutes ago, a lot of the underlying signs of the economy and the strength of the economy are pointing recession, recession, recession, recession. And when you tie that into what’s going on in the world, geopolitically and culturally, I think you can see that the world’s in a bit of trouble.
And really, the problems are pretty deep that we’re that we’re trying to solve here. And it’s going to take a lot of work to solve them. And, you know, it’s going to be interesting times.
You know, Chinese say, may you live in interesting times. We live in interesting times, for sure. It’s just been interesting to see how all of this plays out.
Yeah. And it’s really interesting. As you say, it’s good to look at the whole picture.
It’s all interrelated. And it’s funny sort of looking at the and a lot of people saying, well, yeah, but, you know, how does that affect me today? What should I do, et cetera? Well, of course, if you’re a stacker, who cares? You’re just going to keep buying, aren’t you? But I think, you know, when we looked at the open of 2024 trading, gold was trading around below 2000, around 2000 bucks, rose 600 bucks. And the dynamics are still there, as Craig was alluding to.
But I think what’s interesting is what caught my attention and it’s sort of spreading out and there’s a reason for it, I’m sure, is that Goldman came out the other day and said, oh, well, hang on, I think perhaps we would push our 3000 dollar gold price projection out to 2026. And that’s based solely on synthetic market expectations, that a rising dollar, rising bond yields would cap gold from rising to 3000 bucks in the short term, which is ludicrous because what’s not factored in, and I’m sure you guys, we’ve talked about this before, what’s not connected into the current gold and silver price forecast is both gold and silver are increasingly breaking free of their inverse dollar bond correlations. And we’re seeing, we know openly, we even see Swiss pension funds, we see other than what’s going on in the BRICS countries, et cetera, they’re openly swapping US treasuries for gold.
And so obviously that drives the bond yield up. You’ve got this concatenation of effects and anyone that’s reading that, oh, well, if a bond yield is higher or the dollar is higher, we should sell gold, FX gold. How ludicrous is that? Because you’re seeing them rise together now.
Any comments? I mean, yeah, I’ll take it real quick and I’m sure these guys will jump on. But you look at, for example, the BRICS, which we’ve, Andrew, you and I have talked about a lot, we’re very close to issuing their unit gold-backed currency over Enbridge. But at the 12th hour, the BIS and Augustus Carstens pulled the plug.
The BIS Innovation Hub was helping China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE develop Enbridge and also to run the unit settlement token, who Delma Rousseff, the former president of Brazil and the head of the New Development Bank, said, we’ve agreed in principle to this, basically Sergei Glazyev’s idea that has now materialized. And at the 12th hour, the BIS says, well, you know, we can’t be involved with any country like Russia that’s being sanctioned by the West. It’s as if they just realized over the last four years that Russia was the R in BRICS.
And so they’ve pulled back from this. But in essence, what they are doing until they get a more cohesive settlement currency and a platform to trade over, I think that they realize that the need for the US Treasury is fleeing. And instead, they would use gold as a neutral reserve asset to settle their trade surpluses.
So in essence, what you’re seeing are these countries who realize the West, whether it be the United States through what he calls, President Trump calls tariffs, they’re actually sanctions masquerading as tariffs. You don’t say 100% tariff if you don’t do this. That’s a sanction and that’s a threat.
And instead, they’re accumulating gold, which has doubled the performance of the 10-year treasury for the last 25 years, but has no counterparty liability. It’s also been reclassified by the BIS as something Tier 1 or high-quality liquid asset. And all of these things, you put them all together and it becomes very obvious that these countries have chosen to shed treasuries and to accumulate gold instead of those treasuries.
And I think that is a trend that will continue. Absolutely. Yeah.
And I wanted to piggyback on that. Ever since Basel III, and Andy and I have had conversations about that dating back a few years ago, and we’re covering it from Basel III and explicitly introducing gold as a high-quality liquid asset. Some people call it a Tier 1, whatever you want to call it.
There has been this move to gold and central banks have been buying it. You see the 2023 World Gold Council survey that central banks are dumping dollars, and now there’s pressure coming on the treasuries. It’s clear that everybody’s moving away from the dollar.
And as Andy articulates all the time, they’re moving to the CBDCs in that format, the unit currency umbrage and all of that, but they’re not quite ready. And if you think about it, even though this could be a worldwide currency framework, you have to deal with the regional powers, the BRICS, the Blue Dot Network, the individual nation states and making sure that they feel like they’re integrated, protected. So it’s not 100% agreed upon system, though that is the next system that they want in place.
But everything’s not quite ready. So in me looking at the system, is it all going to collapse tomorrow? When’s the big day? All the signs point to them still working on some of the solutions and still getting some pieces in place. And so they’re slowly sort of moving out of the US dollar as that world reserve currency, but they’re not 100% ready to move into the new one.
And a lot of it is not the technology. It’s not the idea that’s there. It’s the political side of it.
Okay, now you got the tech, you’ve got the system, as Andy articulated, the political side of it is what they’re working out. And really what it is, is how are they going to divide up the pieces of the world? And that goes back to the trade unions and things. So all of those things need to kind of develop.
So I feel as though they’re injecting stimulus into the system to keep the zombie alive, to keep it from dying. I think that was a lot of the reason why there were two rate cuts leading into the end of the year. And even though Powell keeps saying they’re not going to rate cut anymore, I feel as though because he takes his marching orders from the BIS, which he does, because all the central banks do, regardless of which nation they’re in, I feel as though they’re going to continue to do what they need to do to keep this system alive until it’s ready to fail.
However, there are warning signs that some of liquidity has been pulled out. You look at the repo market, you look at things like that. So I think we’re really, really close to that point at which the system tips over.
But I feel as though there are a couple of pieces are not 100% ready. And so we’re sort of in that twilight time before something big is going to happen. We’re all just sitting there waiting on the other shoe to drop.
But you can see the manifestation of it. But it hasn’t happened yet. And, you know, going back to gold and silver, now is probably a good time to get into that because the report from North Star, I know they’re on the Kinesis channel and they do a trade show, a trading show every week.
One of the charts they put up on X or on Twitter recently was saying that they expect the stock markets to fall 50 to 80 percent, Bitcoin to fall 90 percent and for gold to double and then double again. And that everything that they’re seeing in the market and the wonderful charts that they put out is leading up to that. OK, and this is from the data technical view.
So looking at the fundamentals, looking at the technicals, it’s like we’re leading up to that big event. We’re not quite there yet, but we’re really, really close. And if you line everything up in terms of the currency and the trade union, the political union, the technicals and the fundamentals, we’re sitting on the edge of it.
Nobody knows the exact day, but we’re just sitting on the edge of when that that event comes, that’s going to when the dollar dies and the dollar will die. And when it dies is when all the rest of this stuff kicks off, all the other things that they’re working on. Andrew, would you mind if I ask a quick question to the whole panel about what Andy, what Rob just said? Because something that’s driving me crazy that I can’t quite figure out, Rob, maybe you’ve wrapped your head around this.
But what you just said about gentlemen saying Bitcoin would fall 90 percent, it’s widely known that the treasuries are heavily invested in all of the stable coins, which are, in essence, backing Bitcoin or the whole crypto sphere. If that were to happen, what does that mean in your guys’ mind to the bond market? Well, if it’s true that there is this incestuous relationship between Tether, U.S. government and treasuries, then that means that that’s one of the reasons the government’s getting into the Bitcoin trade. One of the reasons we talked about after the Nashville conference, I talked about quite a bit when Trump announced, I was there when Trump announced that they’re going to buy, was it 70 million Bitcoin? They’re going to inflate the price and use it to support the dollar.
The ulterior motive that now is coming out as we talk about the stable coins and talk about what you just talked about, the treasury market is, are they doing it to support a scheme that they’ve already been running surreptitiously in the background to support treasuries and the dollar using so many stable coins in the crypto markets? In other words, as we get to the end of this fiat system, they’re grasping for a similar fiat asset or fiat currency that would allow them to maybe bridge the gap to the CBDCs, I wonder. They’re certainly not doing it in gold. Now, they’re getting gold for their own banks, but they’re not telling the people to go buy gold.
And so I’m wondering if their play is to get pushed into the digital. And that’s what I felt when I went to Bitcoin Mina. I felt like they were pushing getting into the digital and not promoting people going into gold because that’s where they’re going to go.
And the short term is like the Bitcoin, the privates and cryptos until they’ve got their CBDCs ready. Maybe what they’re doing, I don’t know, as I put the pieces together, that’s sort of the thought in my mind. I don’t know what you think, Craig.
Well, Craig, you get a huge amount. You’ve got such a diverse group of live people who come and provide you feedback all day long about the inputs. So what are they saying? What’s kind of the distillation of are people bullish? Are they bearish? What are they? Are they confused? What’s going on? On the precious metals, Andrew? Yeah.
Well, in general, the people at my site, you know, are kind of long term bulls, right? Looking to buy the dip, that sort of thing. And I think and I kind of, of course, lead them that way because I’m a long term bull always looking to buy the dip. And a lot of people on my site were like, God, I’d have given up in 2015 if, you know, you weren’t so emphatic.
And I’ve always been emphatic because the math is the math. A lot of what you guys have been talking about. If I can kind of steer off in a different direction.
Yeah. Andrew, because there’s something I do want to get your opinion on. What day was that we got together? Is that back in early December, right? 11th.
OK, there was a story that came out early in December. I was look, reach down, look at my phone because I wanted to pull it up because I thought this was significant back then. China vows massive stimulus and embraces moderately loose monetary policy.
Do you guys remember this? It was December the 9th. And this was a big change because they had been since 2011 pursuing a what was called a prudent strategy. But in 2010, a year before that, they had had this and they were public about it, this monetary loose or moderately loose monetary policy.
And I thought 2010, huh? That’s interesting. I wonder what was going on back in 2010 and 2011. Right.
And so about the same time that happened, and I’m sure we discussed this when we were together last month. Remember, Andy, that the spreads between spot versus futures were blowing out? Doing it again right now. And right.
And silver got to like a dollar. Yeah. And gold was 20 somewhat.
Well, even so, then this massive smash came. Silver got all the way up to 3330 or something like that. And it looked like, oh, we’re going to finish the year so strong.
And then this massive smash came and the FOMC came and it driven down. And we finished here at 20. Here we are now again.
As we record this for three weeks away from the February gold contract going off the board. Yeah. And the spread from spot to February is 15 bucks.
Now, people may listen to us, may go, OK, so Andrew, you know, that’s a very wide spread. And there’s no reason arbitrage should close that. If there was trust and faith in the delivery, because you got to sell here and buy here and deliver it versus yourself.
If there was trust in that, that spread wouldn’t be there. And in silver, it’s 65 cents versus the March, which will go off at the end of February. So we’re back in this really wide contango premium thing, which to me is a stress within the system of a lack of trust in the system that you can actually do if you’re going to sell, buy here and sell there and close that gap.
Well, you better be able to deliver where you sold. And that’s why that gap isn’t closing. And so I look at that.
I look at this China thing that they’re pronouncing this moderately loose policy. As we record this, copper has been in a downtrend since late September. It just broke out.
It’s actually above its 50-day moving average and out of that downtrend for the first time, really, as we record this. And so there’s all these other things that are going on. I just find it, wrapping all the way this back around to your other question, Andy, I think, what was Goldman saying a year ago at this time? Because here, gold went up 26 percent while rates were rising, while the dollar index was going up.
And yet they’re trying to now say, well, gold’s going to struggle this year because rates are going to rise and the dollar index is going to go up. Well, what the hell changed? And then one last thing, putting this back together with China. They took, allegedly, what, six months off from May to November where they weren’t buying any? Yeah, really.
You know that’s not true, Andy. We’ve seen those reports that maybe they were buying 50 tons or 55 tons in November. What they publicly stated is they came back in November and bought five tons.
And now they just reported that in December they bought 10. OK, so there’s a real fundamental underpinning to this that goes far beyond what some egghead CFA analysts working sell-side research at Goldman seems to think that gold’s going to do. And so I just, you know, all the way back around to your question, what do people on my site think? We’re thinking for ourselves.
We’re connecting these dots. We know the math is the math. We can see the underlying physical fundamentals.
And just like the central banks, if the bullion banks are going to try to press price lower so they can cover some of their shorts, you know, in this two step forward, one step back stuff that always seems a definable market, then we’re buying the dip because the fundamentals and the math is undeniable. How’s that, man? Yeah, but basically you’re talking about spreads. So let me just talk about spreads for a second, because the age old, the 50 year old, age old price suppression scheme, it boils down to this one thing.
For example, take the February contract as a perfect example. When it launched on the 29th of July, there was a $70.90 contango premium to the 23.90 spot price. So what do they do? They send, they asymmetrically hedge, they sell it, asymmetrically hedge it, 96% and flog it into the market, right? Now, as long as the price doesn’t rise, then they’ve got a guarantee locked in profit.
And so when it expires six months later on the 30th of January, which we’re heading into now, silver, $1.37 at exactly that moment. That is 6,800 contract, you know, that is 6,000 odd dollars over the price. But as long as the price didn’t rise above 29, because by the time you factor that all in, it means as long as I can keep it at 29, then I can play this position game and I’ll play along the way.
But, and that’s why I believe that’s why 2,600 in gold held and cannot be breached. And why 29 in silver cannot be breached because it doesn’t serve them to have the price below that because they’ve asymmetrically hedged it to the point where they can offset it against the momentums who think the Lord have exited most of these guys have exited to Bitcoin and good riddance to them because they’re going to play that game and get rinsed. But I think it’s interesting because what you’ve just mentioned is the age old game.
It’s coming to an end because as Rob says, Basel III, as Andy says, Basel III has forced, what it’s does is created the ability to EFP this bullshit price into a fully backed NSFR compliant T plus one deliverable contract. And that’s the, this game is ending because the liquidity to keep those casino chips circulating around is evaporating. So it’s interesting you should mention that.
Well, and again, it’s a sign that there’s a lot more going on than what, you know, Yahoo finance summarizes with their article at the end of the day about, well, gold was up one and a half, 1% as the dollar fell. And, you know, it’s a slightly more complicated than that. And you guys all do a great job, Andy, with these weekly videos you put out in educating folks and bringing this to their attention is tremendous.
And again, that’s what underpins this market. And that’s what keeps the banks from being able to correct all these forecasts. Well, gold’s going back to 1800.
So probably not. Yeah, I think it’s interesting. Gold did really well, even though it kind of traded off at the end of the year, it had its best year since 2010.
And that’s considering the, at one point, it was an eight to one short to long ratio by the bullion banks, which we know both from the COT report and the Office of Comptroller of the Currency report, which names the banks that, you know, they’re the ones that have the large short and certainly gold and silver as a percentage of having a concentrated short position, a few players compared to the rest of the commodities markets. They’re right up there, right? Having the highest concentrated short position. So, you know, that short pressure that they put on there really has kind of kept gold and silver from long term breaking out.
And if you go back to 2000s, just use this 24 year time frame, gold has relatively speaking kept up with the CPI. It’s been an inflation hedge. So it’s held true to that.
I wonder if you release that tremendous eight to one short pressure by the bullion banks and just let it trade without all that derivative paper. It’s not legitimate hedging. Just take that derivative paper off of it and just let it trade on the markets what it’s going to go to, you know.
And so the question really becomes, when does the influence of the bullion banks, when is that, when do they reverse their position or when does their influence wane in these markets? There’s a couple of headwinds towards what they’re able to do. You start to see a shift to the east of the BRICs creating their own market. I think we’ve maybe talked about that last time.
But I think you’re also starting to see that they’re having to dump more and more paper to get to keep that price within certain trading ranges, you know, as a percentage. So it seems to me that, and again, I think it goes back to the timing of the financial system. You know, once the dollar is over in terms of world reserve currency, which in November, again, first time that I can remember the SWIFT transactions, the dollar based SWIFT transactions were under 50 percent in November.
So that’s a sign that, you know, as we go, the use of the dollar is decelerating. Now, it’s still the predominant currency, but it’s decelerating. And as we get to that inflection point, I think that’s probably where it makes sense to let gold revalue, that the whole world would want it, because especially if you’ve got, I mean, the BRICs would because they’ve got a ton of it.
They’re developing new markets. So I think, you know, as we look at when that might happen, when this massive derivative shorting that’s going on in the American market is finally going to stop dictating the price is when we get to the point at which people are ready to say, OK, the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. And now you’re going to have like China, Russia, all those guys saying, OK, now we’re going to back our currencies with gold, whether explicitly or implicitly.
And I think that’s probably when you’re going to get it. So I know a lot of people have been extremely frustrated. You know, I put out a tweet the other day about silver breaking 30 again, how that was positive.
And somebody said, yeah, they’re just going to smash it down. It’ll never end. Well, it will end because the whole reason why that suppression scheme is allowed to occur is because the dollar once the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency, that’s gone, at least the comics version of it, you know, and then will we reach some sort of true market? So for those that have been extremely frustrated, hey, just know that this isn’t going to go on forever.
Just know that there’s going to be a day in which it stops, you know, and just be secure in your position, be secure, you know what you’re doing. Don’t get too jaded about it. I know it’s been a long wait for people.
People thought 2008 was it. Then they thought the 2021 was it 2016. We’ve had these little blips along the way, but it is coming.
And it, you know, when it happens, it’s going to be hard and fast if history tells us anything. So, you know, I do think it’s coming. So people, you know, shouldn’t be frustrated.
They should look at this as a buying opportunity. I know that’s an old trope and precious metals, but it’s true. And it’s not going to be long before that dollar goes away.
We talked about the beginning of this episode. CBDCs are there, the unit currency, all of it’s there. And it’s just a matter of them lining up all the events the way that they want before that trigger is pulled.
And remember, what led to the Great Depression was a pulling back of liquidity in the market and the crashes of the markets. That’s all they got to do is pull that liquidity back. That’s the big trigger.
So I don’t, you know, I don’t foresee it being too long. And I foresee that some of this frustration that people have in the precious metals market eventually will be relieved, you know. But you want to have your position there, because if you don’t, then when all these other risk assets fall, you know, like Northstar is predicting, when these risk assets fall, if you don’t have the gold and silver and those types of productive commodity assets, you could be in trouble.
Andy, your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I couldn’t agree more, you know, and talk about how they’re doing it. And you look at what’s going on right now, like, for example, on the LBMA, and the LBMA numbers are so out of whack, it’s crazy. They have pretty darn close to $4 billion of London cash spot silver claims with total vault holdings of about 850 million ounces.
So you’re talking, you know, and there are people there that are saying they’re trading upwards ends of 2.9 billion ounces of silver per day, which is three and a half times annual global mine supply. I don’t have the exact numbers in gold. I think they’re trading roughly two and a half times annual global mine supply in gold.
And I think what changes things now is that the big, big money across the globe, in particular, the Southern Hemisphere, the BRICS, they understand what we’re doing. And they’re using it against us. We saw 55 or 45 million ounces delivered off of COMEX in December.
There was an interesting comment by the gentleman who is working with the BRICS Grain Exchange. And I would draw a parallel to the Precious Metals Exchange. Rob talked about this on Danny’s Capital Cosm show about the exchanges in Brazil, in Dubai, in Russia, in Moscow, in Shanghai, and how they will build a BRICS Gold Exchange.
But listen to the comment the gentleman said about the Grain Exchange. He says, we produce more grain and consume more grain than the folks do in the West, yet we can’t control the prices. It’s controlled on COMEX.
But with the development of the Grain Exchange, that will change. They know what we’re doing. And they’re not bitching about it, probably even adding to these short positions with paper in order to drain the exchanges slowly and methodically, do the exchange for physical off of other exchanges.
Rob talked about that in that interview with Danny. He said, look, they can buy and take stuff off of other exchanges, but it doesn’t disrupt the price the way it does when it’s taken off COMEX, which is the price setting mechanism. You see China going around the world and buying dore and concentrate.
75% of all their industrial silver is now concentrate. They’re buying it directly from the miners, disintermediating the marketplace. And this comes from the second largest producer of silver in the world.
I said that to David Morgan. He says, well, they’re actually the first. That’s what they told me.
Well, it doesn’t matter. It’s semantics. First or second.
And now net importers instead of net exporters flying around the world buying concentrate and dore directly from the miners, which doesn’t affect the price. Or it’s very opaque as to how much they’re getting and virtually no effect on the price. They’re pulling out all of the stops, knowing that we’re doing this.
And the only reason they’re not bitching is because they’re the ones that are accumulating it. And that’s really the key to all this. We’re being played by it.
And we’re being played by our own stupidity. And Rob has always talked about the London gold pool. And Craig has.
I’m sorry. Craig is the one who’s always talking about the London gold pool. But if you go back that far, and you go back that far, the LBMA is 140 years old and the COMEX since 1974, all the way until just maybe a decade ago, all of these countries were third world.
They weren’t challenging or standing for delivery. Nobody did. But now they’re sophisticated.
They’re coordinated. And they’re motivated. And they’re doing it just fast enough so that we can see it.
Public doesn’t see it. And they’re doing it not too fast to disrupt the apple cart. But I think the key to all of this is seeing the deliveries and the length.
Look at Saudi Arabia and China hiding how much they’re buying, not reporting it to the IMF. You know, if the PBOC buys it, it has to be reported. But if the PLA, the People’s Liberation Army, buys it, it doesn’t.
Remember, they’re buying all the Dory? If it’s not 995 pure, it doesn’t have to get reported to the IMF. Look at Saudi Arabia. Oops, sorry, we didn’t report it.
You got caught on the import-export numbers. All of these countries are doing all they can to exploit the delivery mechanism and buy it around the globe at these stupid fugazi prices that we continue to portray to support the illusion of strength of our Western system and of our bond markets. And it is coming to an end.
And that’s why I named my podcast Little by Little, because it refers to logarithmic decay. Little by little by little by little, bang, all at once. And where are we in the all at once? Where are we on this chain? They know what we’re doing.
If they know what we’re doing with grain, they know what we’re doing with precious metals, and they’re using it against us. And it, too, will change. Well, the more open interest they create, and I mean, let’s face it, there is only one central bank, one global central bank that is actually really trying to cap the price of gold, trying to defend gold from rising higher.
Every other central bank is long physical gold and it would behoove them to have a higher gold price. So there is only one central bank and we know who it is. So there comes a point, though, where when you’ve got to stem, you know, ultimately, when we look forward, there’s a point where it just doesn’t work anymore.
You can’t create enough open interest because the demand is so strong. And yes, while silver is you can’t see what’s going on in the silver market, you can’t immediately define what is tightening supply. Same in gold.
So there comes a point when to stem de-dollarization flows into mispriced bonds, overpriced dollar versus gold, that is, and silver. I mean, surely the BIS cannot remain the sole outlier to all the BIS compliant European, Asian BRICs facing central banks. And so there has to be a point where there is simply no, there is no alternative, but to at least partially back U.S. Treasury gold with some amount of gold.
Well, what’s your thoughts? Well, that’s probably coming at some point. Just to maintain some authenticity, some gravitas, right, to the current system. But it is, I mean, all of that, like you said, Andy, that these are problems that the central bankers are going to face.
You mentioned the one you talked about the BIS, but I’ll just talk about the Fed. You know, the Fed does all their work mainly through job owning, right? They know that their little, their little dial on Fed funds has a lagging impact. You know, they can’t just make something happen overnight.
So they try to get this message out. They get this message out, you know, or if the headlines off the FOMC meeting and that statement doesn’t get the market reaction they want, then they wait three weeks and they roll out the FOMC minutes in a way that maybe they get the reaction they wanted in the first place, you know. Problem for the Fed, and they’re going to feel it this year, is they’re going to have to pick at one or the other.
They can either try to control inflation for the regular folks, or they’re going to side with the banks and the markets and the liquidity that’s necessary to keep the government afloat. And that’s what they’re going to say. That’s the greater good for everybody.
And so inflation is not going away and money printing is coming back with a vengeance. Andy, Andy and Rob, $624 billion deficit in just the first two fiscal months of the year. We’re a couple days away from getting the December numbers, which I’ll obviously add to that.
We’ve got $1.1 trillion in debt service costs now on the annual budget. All of these things are getting out of control. And so I mentioned, and I just want to work this back in, yield curve control is where this is headed.
Because at some point, interest rates will continue to rise, you know, just whether it’s buyer’s strike or whether it’s just people demanding higher interest because of the attended inflation that everybody sees. But that’s going to be an untenable situation and someone’s going to have to be buying the debt. It’ll be the Fed, and the Fed has done this before.
This was their policy from about 1946 to 1951 or two, yield curve control, where they basically just say, we are buyers of everything over whatever, 4%. And they just cap that long end. Fundamentally, as it relates to the gold price, that enshrines, that lays a foundation for negative real interest rates for everyone to see.
And again, this is a choice that the Fed will be forced to make. I think it’s quite clear that they, what side they’re going to come down on for the reasons you guys have mentioned. The liquidity needs that could, if that were to be withdrawn, Rob mentioned Northstar’s projections, you know, of a 90% collapse in some of these things.
Well, that would come from a liquidity crisis. And the Fed trying to walk the line, trying to keep all these plates spinning and balls in the air and whatever other metaphor I can come up with, at some point, they’re going to have to make a choice. They’re going to be forced to make a choice, or we’re either going to try to be hawkish or however you want to put it, austere in our monetary policy, or we’re just going to try to keep it all going, you know, everyone else be damned.
And again, history has proven, I think we know what side they’re going to fall on. And that, again, does that factor into Goldman’s price projection? Probably not. Yeah, the reason is a lot of these banks trade in and facilitate a lot of the government trade, so.
Yeah, they’re all primary dealers. Yeah, primary dealers and, you know, right-hand separator from left. And so when they issue a report on gold, even though that bank overall understands that, the guy releasing the report doesn’t understand it, right? It’s kind of like how the IRS is arranged to where nobody really knows the whole story.
It’s all the segregation. And so you don’t, you know, depending on what sector you’re in finance, you get a little part of the story and it’s up to you to kind of put all the puzzle pieces together. And, you know, it’s a wonderful thing about shows like this is we’ll give you the broad picture that you’re not going to get out of that because they’re not going to tell the truth.
The US government would be all over them if they told the truth, and they don’t even want maybe even their own employees to know the full truth, honestly. I mean, we’ve certainly we’ve all had friends that work on Wall Street that said, wow, I figured out the truth and I quit Wall Street. And the reason we’ve all had friends do that is because they see the big picture.
You know, they don’t train you on that in classical economics and finance. They don’t train you on that. And the traders don’t even know it.
So it’s really you have to look at all the big pieces. But, you know, going back to that in terms of, you know, what those guys are doing, yeah, the rest of the world is using our system against us. You know, we have no choice but to perpetuate the system because if we don’t, it’s depression and collapse.
Right. So and it’s the politicians losing their power of the currency. Right.
So nobody. So they’re going to perpetuate until it ends. And the rest of the world’s figured out the jig.
It’s like, you know, leading up to 1971, come off the gold standard. They figure the European nations figured out we overprinted the dollar. We had more dollars in gold.
And they said, OK, we’ll go right back to that gold window and we’ll take the gold off your hands. And we lost two thirds of our holdings. Well, they’re now doing that.
But as you know, Andy so graciously said, they’re doing it in all the markets. It’s not just the gold and silver markets are doing grain markets, you know, the energy markets. So the world has figured out, hey, this time we can really take advantage of the United States and really who’s being taken advantage of is the people, because it’s the people that are going to pay the price for this.
We’re paying it in inflation. The government numbers are wrong. You just look at shadow stats or you can just go to the grocery store.
The government numbers are wrong. But the people are ultimately going to pay the price. And now what you have to if you’re a viewer or a listener of content, are you going to listen to Goldman Sachs? Are you going to listen to U.S. government? Are you going to listen to people that don’t have you know, they aren’t trying to perpetuate that system, trying to tell you the truth.
And this has led to the rise of the alternative media and shows like this one is that we’re telling the truth that they won’t tell. At the end of the day, do you want to be a victim of all this or do you want to come out and somehow, you know, not losing everything and having some chance at maintaining your lifestyle and things like that? So, you know, it’s that’s why these discussions are good, because we’re giving you the picture that they’re not going to give you. And you’re not going to get all those fancy reports that you’re going to pay all that money for, you know, and this is what’s happening.
And there will come a time in which the rest of the world is ready to move on. And as soon as they’re ready to move on, it’s over and nothing that the U.S. government does is going to stop it. They can’t stop it.
It’s the rest of the world now controls that game. And when they’re ready and they pull the trigger, either that or the Fed pulling the trigger on the liquidity. Those are the two things that you really need to look for.
Those are the two big ones. And I’m just wondering if we’ll have a return this year. Last comment.
I’m wondering this year if we’ll have a return to liquidity problems and the banking system, because the repo market’s been drained. You know, we know what happens when that happens. We have a freeze up of the banks.
We have a freeze up of the corporates not being able to get their liquidity. Is that about to happen? The equity in the markets crash, and it’s because of yield curve control. The yield curve control the Treasury recently did.
There’s a good tweet about that that I retweeted a couple of weeks ago because of the way that they were issuing longer dated treasuries. It drained, you know, that repo market. So now we’re lacking that liquidity so that yield curve control could flip the switch accidentally.
Right. So are we going to come back this year to the bank failures? Are we going to come back to talking about the repo market? To me, that’s probably where you’re going to see, you know, the canary in the coal mine. That’s the one thing I’m really looking at.
What happens to repo? What happens to the banks? If we start to see issues there, I think that means we’re right on top of maybe this is the last time, you know, the dollar can take this before it finally collapses. Also included in your 2025 macrocast at TF Metals Report. Yeah, that’s a big, that’s a very big looming piece of the puzzle.
No doubt about it, Rob. I’m glad you brought it up. It is.
Major driver. The easy way to summarize it, Rob, just says they’re trying to save the bond market at the cost of the dollar’s purchasing power. I mean, that’s what it comes down to.
Either that’s going to force a change, it’s going to force inflation, or it’s going to crash the economy completely if you pull that liquidity out. And it’s amazing if you think about how much liquidity is needed just to bring a loaf of bread to the store, you know, from the farmer planting a field with this combine and the seeds and the diesel fuel to deliver it to the flour mill, to have it refined, delivered then back to the baker who’s on, everyone’s on credit. Everyone’s on credit.
You start to pull the credit and just something as simple as putting a loaf of bread from farm to store becomes a real problem. And that’s just on the most basic level and exacerbates what these guys just said was spot on, spot on. Kudos.
Buy gold, buy silver. Mic drop. I guess the Fed is so deep in, as you’ve mentioned, they have little option but to double down.
And the trouble is, and when we relate that to gold, because people say, you know, look, obviously, a lot of the subjects we talk about ultimately relate to gold and silver, people making their decisions, whether we buy now, whether we add, whether we deplete, all that kind of stuff. But essentially, the problem is, is by doubling down, what they’re really revealing is a weak poker hand. I mean, what do you call a bluff hand? A busted hand, isn’t that in poker, where you throw this hand down and you hope no one calls you.
And ultimately, someone’s going to call them. And as far as gold’s concerned, most definitely, as Andy just went through, of course, they’re taking it. Every single central bank out there, and as you say, little at a time, they’re working it, they’re taking it.
And the more you double down, the more they’ll simply be able to take. And this is, to me, this is an inflection point where it’s even better than when we started 2024 trading and we ended up with a $600 rally, even though it went higher and was pulled back and one thing or another. We are talking about how many dollars it’s going to take to buy this same ounce of gold, the same ounce of silver.
How many more dollars is it going to cost? Because the dollar hasn’t, the gold hasn’t gone up, the silver hasn’t gone up in price. It’s just been what it’s been for the last 5,000 years. So to me, these dollars are being printed.
Certainly, they’re having to print a lot of dollars to create enough open interest to eventually be robbed at the back end by a Basel III compliant marketplace. We got nobody who knows what to say. No, you’re right.
Hey, you’re making me think, Andrew, about the prop I often use when I’m in my office where I’m not today. But my wife gave me a piggy bank in the shape of a London Good Delivery bar and I keep it on my desk. It looks like the 400 ounce bar, you know, but it’s not.
I always tell people I can put my finger in the hole where the cap goes. Okay, don’t come to my house thinking you’re going to walk out of it. I knew you’d say that.
Yeah, it’s not real. Anyway, the moral of the story is even under this pricing scheme, which vastly overestimates the amount of actual gold with clear title and the amount of actual silver with clear title that’s in there. You know, and Andy and all the unallocated, there you go, like that.
Can you put your finger at the bottom of it? Yeah, there you go. Go to Andy’s house. Well, I’m the only one that doesn’t have one.
Rob doesn’t have one. We got to get you on board here, pal. Now, if you’re looking for gold, go to Andy’s house.
Anyway, moral of the story is that everybody’s seen that bar. Hold that baby up again, would you, Andy? Everybody’s seen these, right? It’s a London Good Delivery bar. 400 ounces, give or take, right? You see these things stacked on pallets in cages, that sort of thing.
All right, when Nixon closed the gold window, you could have bought one of those babies for $14,000. You could have, right? 35 or 40, whatever that is, 35 times 400, right? You could have walked right in, bought yourself, take $14,000, had one of those babies. 25 years later, it was about $1.1 million.
No, I mean, I’m sorry, $110,000. Today, at $2,600 gold, it’s $1.1 million to buy one of those things. Now, has the gold changed? Is that bar the same? I mean, you can’t hedonically adjust it and say, well, this is a much more efficient bar.
None of that. It’s the same damn bar. You have to now have $1.1 million to buy the thing, okay? So you can extrapolate that forward.
Another 25 years, is it $10 million of those? We’re talking $26,000 for an ounce of spot, even under this current pricing. We talk about all of these fundamental things that are legitimately happening, that are taking place, that are underpinning the gold price and sending it higher. But even outside of all that, just over time, look at what has happened.
Nothing can protect your purchasing power like that physical gold can. So, boy, you mentioned, who was it? Andy, I think it was you talk about the Chinese or these other countries that use our markets against us to accumulate what they want. I remember this back in the late 80s.
The rumors on the Chicago Board of Trade that the Chinese had come in and short a whole bunch of soybeans. And then a month later, they’d, you know, the Chinese are now going to be importing 100 million bushels. You know, they got the price down.
They’ve been doing this for years. They’re happy to do it. They see what’s going on, and they see the lower prices and how artificially low they are.
They’re happy about it. We all sit here and bitch about it, right? I can’t believe this is still going on after all these years. We need to make sure we’re happy about it, too.
Because especially anybody that’s still not, maybe this is the first time they’ve ever thought about accumulating metal. Maybe they’re just beginning to build a stack now because they’re starting to figure out what’s going on. Hey, this works to their advantage.
They still can get some metal, and they can get it at a low price relative to what it really should be. Well, and I’d like to put an exclamation point on that comment made by Pierre Lassonde. And, you know, recently, the cumulative volume on the Shanghai Metals and Futures Exchange combined surpasses that of the COMEX, making it the number two most actively traded center for metals.
Pierre Lassonde just came out and said, the day the Shanghai Gold Exchange surpasses the COMEX in transactions will mark a seismic shift. Gold’s pricing power will move decisively from the west to the east. Summed up, the gold price will ultimately be decided not in the United States but in the east.
How close are we from that moment where these fugazi numbers that you can trade at such massive distorted levels of paper contracts to physical behind it? At what point, like you said, is it over like that? And now the nations who understand and accumulate and respect what these assets really are and what they mean, the pricing will move that way. And what does that say for the LBMA and for the COMEX and for this country, for the whole Western system? You could argue, if Pierre is right, we’re close to that happening because those two exchanges combined, the Shanghai Metals and Futures combined, has now surpassed COMEX. So how far away are we? I’m not sure.
But he would tell you probably closer than most people think. Well, Andrew, you track this every week with your great videos. I mean, most people remember just back in last May when all of a sudden the Shanghai price was about $3, more than 10% higher than the COMEX.
And you started to wonder, well, who’s really got the pricing power here? Because if the Shanghai price were to go to $35 and COMEX still at $30, you’re like, well, wait a second. What’s the real price? They got to somehow keep them closer together. And so you wonder, will we get a couple of other surges like that even in just speculative buying in China this year with this moderately loose policy? What if all of a sudden there’s a big surge on the Shanghai exchanges of new speculator buying? And there is, because if you look at the data reports from the Shanghai in the last couple of months, and I noted this on a video a few weeks ago, as a percentage of transactions, the Shanghai has a higher physical percentage.
I think in gold it was 78% and silver, I forgot what it was. Very high. But then in the last report, I think in December’s report, those had come way off.
Meaning there is more speculative positioning going on in Shanghai. As a percentage of transactions, physicals come down. Why? Because all that paper’s entering.
So you’re starting to see that paper entering the Shanghai market. It was in the last data report. And I don’t know when January’s out.
It’s probably not out yet. But they do those reports every month. You can look at them on Google and pay attention to the percentage of physical delivery.
And not only had the percentage gone down to physical delivery, but the amount of trade, the notional trade had gone up as well. So that’s people coming in speculating on that market. Is those people in the West speculating on that market? Who’s doing that? Somebody’s coming over.
And we also seen a little bit in dip this year, dating back to the summer, in terms of Comex trade as well. So maybe that’s signaling a shift from West to East in terms of that speculative positioning. And think of it this way, too.
The Fed floods liquidity. And all that ends up in all of our markets. And we know it’s not gone into gold and silver.
And the mining shares have been in Bitcoin and the big seven or whatever they’re called and all that kind of stuff. Well, they can’t trade Bitcoin in China, can they? Right? Isn’t it a little illegal? They’re not supposed to be able to. OK, so China issues all this moderately loose liquidity.
It’s going to go more into, again, silver contracts in Shanghai, gold contracts in Shanghai, copper contracts in Shanghai. That kind of that’s where that liquidity is going to flow there. And again, forces the banks to go, oh, man, what are we going to do here? They have to let price rise so it doesn’t get detached.
So, again, all part of these forces that are underlying the markets is here as 2025 begins. Yeah. And you’ve said it all.
It’s about liquidity, because let’s face it, if you are trading on an exchange, which is a physical exchange like the SGE physical exchange, I have to buy that bar. I have to own that bar before I trade that bar. OK, so if that’s the case, then literally someone, if I want to buy that bar, there has to be a physical seller of that bar who is happy to sell it at that price.
And they sure as hell ain’t going to sell it at the paper price. So therefore, you’re going to get this continued spread as liquidity flows into those physically separate markets. Of course, it’s going to expose.
And of course, they’re going to drain what they can get out of these synthetically priced markets. And I think the COMEX is dead in the water, ultimately, because no matter how much open interest you create, it ultimately results in someone wanting to buy a physical bar. And as that liquidity flows into those physical exchanges, simply there comes a point where the COMEX cannot continue to play this game.
It’s interesting. And what you just said, you know, on COMEX, everything’s rehypothecated. In Shanghai, you buy the bar first, as you alluded to, from one of the six or seven refiners.
And the bar is then laser etched with a serial number that is attributed directly to your contract. So it’s one to one rather than one to 30 or whatever they’re doing. It’s a sad state of affairs, isn’t it? Where we look at communist Chinese as having more authenticity, you know.
Better free markets than we do, right? Yeah, geez, isn’t it? It gets back to what you said at the beginning, Rob, the decline of the West, right? And the values of the West, what manifested right there and what you were just talking about, Andy, geez, unbelievable. I honestly suggest people do listen to these, your sage advices. But it’s not advice, it’s education.
This is about education so that people come in and they can make their own minds up. They can, it’s about taking, I always say this is about taking responsibility for ourselves and therefore, and that’s the only way. And then obviously that leads into gold and silver.
If you’re looking from the monetary side of things, then obviously you need to protect your wealth. We talked about that. We’ve also talked about the bigger picture.
Rob, Andy and Craig has talked about the bigger picture here. It’s all interconnected. And so I would honestly suggest some of the stuff that just got said, just in quick succession is worth listening to more than once.
So I really recommend people do, because if you want to understand the bigger picture and why you should be protecting your wealth at the very least, if not trying to feed, if you’ve got available dollars, any fiat currency for that matter, then obviously as you held up that bar and people say, well, yeah, it’s 2650. I mean, you know, really, but should I wait? No, baby. Well, why would you wait? Because it’s going to take more dollars to buy that same bar and it will continue to be that way.
And so bottom line, I’m just saying to people, please listen to this, make up your own mind what you’re going to do. No one’s telling you what to do. No one’s, this is not financial advice.
It’s simply saying, look, here are three sage people who are exposed to different areas of the market and therefore you’ve got information now, which obviously we have to cut the episode at some point because people don’t like anything that goes over an hour, no matter how sage it is. And I’ll play it back fast, but nevermind. Thank you guys for coming in and sharing your valuable time with us.
And I hope people really appreciate it. Well, I happen to love the channel, a lot of great content on the channel, by the way, with what you do, Andy, and with the trading stuff. Can you stand a really good job of building that channel? Excellent.
Of course, we know that Andy and Craig have their channels as well. Also very, very good content. So people, if you’re new to this, I know Greg mentioned this earlier.
If you’re new to this and you’re trying to find resources, you know, the four guys on the screen are a good place, certainly to go find a ton of information to go visit our base channel, please, you know, and then of course do your own research. We’re not saying we’re the experts and everything, but use that as a jumping off point. There is a ton of not only great quality content in this particular podcast, but in all the content that the rest of us do, and you’ll get different angles.
So that’s the other benefit to it. Hear, hear. Go watch Rob on Danny’s Capital Cosm.
It’s one of the best I’ve seen in a long time. And I’m serious about that, Rob. So good to be with all you guys.
Yeah. Thank you guys. Thank you so much, guys.
Honestly, I really do hope people appreciate what’s being talked about today. Thank you, guys. All right.
Thank you, Andrew McGuire, Andy Sheckman, Craig Hemke and Rob Keats for another in-depth discussion. And remember to our entire Life in the Vault community, buy physical and make sure it’s back to one to one and understand the difference between what Andy calls the casino paper, gold and silver markets and the actual physical gold and silver markets. They’re not the same.
Don’t be fooled out there. So there you have it. That’s all we have for you today on another episode of Life in the Vault.
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