ClearValue Tax (Uncut) 12-30-2024

I need to update you on the stock markets and I want to open up with this I’m making this video Simply for one reason to make sure that you are not afraid that you’re not scared the short-term volatility that we’ve been seeing if you haven’t noticed the stock market is now considered too big to fail in the long run the stock market’s just going to keep going up so I know the Federal Reserve is saying one thing but somebody I mean I got to be the first one if nobody has said it already I need to be the first one to call the BS on

what they’re saying so we’re going to get into that okay now I first want to show you this and I’ll give you an update so here’s the stock market performance for 2024 year-to date S&P 500 up 25% the nasdaq’s up 30% Dow Jones Industrial Average up 14% so it’s been a great year for the stock markets now here’s the performance of the S&P 500 for 2024 year to date now here’s the month of December and as you can see it’s been struggling to keep up the momentum upward momentum so the reason is here on December 18th the Federal

Reserve had their meeting and they said that they expect to cut interest rates fewer times in 2025 and of course the market didn’t like that now leading up to December 18th Market expectations were aware of the possibility of fewer rate cuts which is why the upward progress stalled leading up to the 18th essentially the market was cautious so what happened is the Federal Reserve released their summary of economic projections this is also known as their SCP in their SCP they gave their updated projections on

what they’re going to do next year and I want to show you what it says in their last SCP projection so this was back in September they forecasted four interest rate Cuts in 20125 so that would have brought the FED funds interest rate down to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% so it’s listed as 3.4% but in their updated SCP on December 18th they were revised it from four interest rate cuts to just two for 2025 and that would drop the FED funds interest rate down to 3.75% to 4.0% so essentially the market lost its

momentum because of the Federal Reserves forecast the fewer rate Cuts in 2025 but listen I’ll be the first one to tell you that monetary policy is not the only driving force behind the stock markets however yes it is a big one so if the Federal Reserve is saying that they’re not going to have as easy of a monetary policy as people are believing you know fewer interest rate Cuts then yeah that would be a more difficult environment for the stock market no doubt but you know I’ll tell you two things so the

first thing is that the Federal Reserve is not perfect in their ability to forecast far from it so they forecasting two interest rate Cuts next year in 2025 are they going to get it right you of course it’s not guaranteed that they will and listen the second thing is you have to really ask the question can the US government and the US economy TR truly afford higher interest rates for longer personally I think that they’re going to cut interest rates more than two times next year because what is the

other option just think about it so if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer then you have to remember that we have a national debt crisis if interest rates are higher that means the US government has to pay more interest expense on the national debts and that’s going to be crippling for the government’s budget not just for 2025 but going forward as well and the second thing is that if you have higher interest rates that’s going to really slow down the economy if the economy

slows down that means the US government’s going to collect less tax revenues and that’s just going to make the debt crisis situation even worse so listen essentially what I’m saying is that most likely the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates more than twice next year I’m just wondering when they’re going to admit it and what the excuse is going to be I have to remind you that we are currently living through the great melt up so there’s going to be ups and downs and whenever there’s Downs

whenever there’s dips I’m going to be using that as a buying opportunity taking advantage of it so I just want to say that we you and me we’ve been forced into inflation we’ve been forced into financial asset inflation if you think that you can time the markets you know buy buy the dips you know get in perfectly in and out you know I’m not going to try to stop you go ahead and I wish you the best luck but for long-term investors for most people it’s just best to not get scared just hold and just

keep buying the dips using them as buying opport opportunities and I know there’s going to be a lot of people that are saying that oh this is a bubble this is a massive bubble of course it’s a bubble I mean we’ve been in a bubble I mean it’s really expanded since 2008 but yeah who’s going to deny that we’re we’re in a bubble but you know what the truth is the sad truth is it’s just going to get worse it’s going to get more inflated and you’re either going to be in it you know going along for the

ride or you’re going to be left behind that’s the truth anyways I want to show you this I think this is very important so right now the Federal Reserve is going to stick to their story story higher interest rates for longer that story will have cracks it’ll start falling apart shortly but not that soon in January they’re going to they’re going to stick to their script they have their meeting and they’re not going to cut rates at the January meeting in January there’s an 89.3% chance that they do not cut interest rates so this

is according to the CME fed watch tool they’re not going to Cuts so their next meeting it’s going to be on March 19th but I’m not going to show you the odds because it’s too far outs it’s going to change drastically it’s just going to be a waste of everyone’s time so essentially what happened is the Federal Reserve said that they’re expecting fewer rate Cuts in 2025 so that slowed down the party it didn’t stop the party just think about it as like a intermission it’s going to keep going up longterm but shortterm I mean who knows

what’s going to happen if you ask me what’s going to happen short term you know who the hell knows nobody has a crystal ball but long term the Market’s just going to keep going up in the short term if the market goes down if there’s a pullback if it goes down 10 15 20% what’s the difference as a long-term investor yeah use that as a buying opportunity but the Federal Reserve you know that they’re going to come in there and they’re just going to rescue the situation the Market’s too big to fail and we’re going to get a v-shaped

recovery long term it’s going to be up anyways that is my input for the stock market that’s also going to be my last video for 2024 thank you so much for all the support and I wish you a very happy new year take care