Gold Buyers Need to Hear This! (Uncut) 03-15-2025

Gold Buyers Need to Hear This! Central Banks Are About to Shock the World – Alasdair Macleod

The reason that central banks are buying gold is that they’re actually selling fiat. And, you know, that is a very important point to understand. So we are on the beginning of that curve as well.

In fact, we were on the beginning of that from 1971, you know, when we started in 71 with $35 an ounce and we’re now close to 3000. But I mean, obviously the way people think, they’re not thinking like that. So they’re trading it as if it was a stock or, you know, whatever.

And I would personally think that 3000, there could be some consolidation around about that 3000 level. Central banks gold buying in 2025 is reshaping global investment strategies, reflecting growing concerns over economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. As nations reassess their monetary reserves, gold has become a key stabilizing asset.

The World Gold Council reports that central banks have added over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, indicating increasing confidence in the precious metals ability to preserve value over the long term. In 2024, central banks accumulated 1045 tons of gold with the National Bank of Poland leading the way by contributing 90 tons. Alastair McLeod observes that central banks are not only purchasing gold, but are also moving away from reliance on fiat currencies.

This shift can be traced back to 1971 when gold was priced at just $35 per ounce and the subsequent surge to nearly $3,000 per ounce highlights the erosion of trust in traditional currencies. The main driver behind this growing gold demand is the weakening of fiat currencies, which diminishes their purchasing power rather than an inflationary rise in commodity prices. McLeod argues that if policy uncertainty continues, coupled with ongoing concerns over tariffs and other global risks, the demand for gold will likely increase.

In contrast to gold, silver has been trading at a historically high gold to silver ratio of around 90, suggesting that silver’s true monetary value remains underappreciated. While often seen as a more accessible alternative to gold, silver has yet to be fully recognized for its potential in a monetary context. The silver market has also been significantly impacted by supply shortages and price suppression.

However, these pressures appear to be easing and rising demand for silver is emerging due to global financial challenges. The increase in premiums and the reduction in open interest on futures contracts suggest a developing short squeeze, forcing investors who had bet against silver to cover their positions. This dynamic could lead to further upward price movement for silver, amplifying its upside potential.

We present the clips of Alastair’s latest video. Before we continue to discuss this, please subscribe to our channel and activate the bell icon for timely updates. The first thing I would say is it’s not gold and silver going up so much.

I mean, there is an element of that. You can’t disentangle it, but it’s basically paper currencies going down. And this is actually what the central banks see.

The reason that central banks are buying gold is that they’re actually selling fiat. And that is a very important point to understand. Ultimately, when everybody understands that it’s fiat going down and not prices rising, and we’re not just talking gold at this stage, but we’re also talking about groceries and everything else, then the currency’s doomed.

So we are on the beginning of that curve. Well, in fact, we were on the beginning of that from 1971, you know, when we started in 71 with $35 an ounce, and we’re now close to 3,000. But I mean, obviously, the way people think, they’re not thinking like that.

So they’re trading it as if it’s a stock or, you know, whatever. And I would personally think that 3,000, there could be some consolidation around about that 3,000 level. It’s a view I wouldn’t sell on the basis that it’s gonna consolidate and it might tip back and you might be able to do this, that, and the other thing.

Why? Because if I sell gold, I’m buying dollars. I don’t wanna buy dollars, for goodness sake. I wanna get the hell out of them.

And as far as silver is concerned, I think with the gold-silver ratio close to 90, that to my mind is far, far too high. Silver does have a monetary role. There is absolutely nothing in the price for a monetary role at the moment.

But I think when you get the collapse of currencies, silver has got two advantages. Firstly, it’s, you know, somebody said it’s the poor man’s gold. I think that’s actually, you know, a sort of a reasonable description for the role of silver in terms of being useful for smaller transactions.

If you think that the politicians might try and ban ownership of gold and politicians are stupid, let’s face it. You know, when it comes to economics, they are on a completely different agenda. But then you ask the question, okay, if they ban ownership of gold, are they likely to do so with silver? And I think the answer is no, because it’s not regarded as a monetary metal anymore.

So on that basis, there is some justification for going for silver. And my view is that, I mean, traditionally, when you get a rise in the price of gold, silver tends to rise about twice as fast. The problem with silver is that when gold stops rising, it falls, you know, probably not only twice as fast, but it keeps on falling when gold goes nowhere.

So that’s the sort of problem you’ve got with silver. But having said that, it’s got left way, way behind. And we’ve had, particularly if you ignore the, you know, sort of selling of ETFs about five years ago, silver ETFs, we’ve had about seven years of supply deficiency.

That’s according to the Silver Institute’s numbers. And I think it’s also been a very managed commodity. I point the finger at China for managing the silver price.

And, you know, whether I’m right or wrong, I have no doubt that it has been very, very suppressed. And on that basis, I think the suppression has probably come to an end. And I also think that the bullion banks, you know, they’re desperate to try and bring their shorts in.

I mean, it’s interesting. And I think to some extent the sudden premiums that we saw on Comex, and we saw the price rise something like $200 while open interest fell 75,000 contracts. I mean, that’s a bear squeeze.

And who are the bears? The bears are the establishment. They are being squeezed. And I think they want out of this short position.

So that is another factor which is likely to really affect the price. If we get up to that sort of $3,000 level, then there could be some panicking on the short side, as it were. Because it’s not really the longs who have been buying futures too much.

I mean, I think it’s, you know, it’s shifted a little bit because I see open interest on Comex has risen to just close to 500,000 contracts. I mean, that’s not overbought by any means. And we could go another 100,000 contracts to the 600,000 contract level before you say this market is overbought.

So yeah, I mean, I think there’s quite a lot of bear squeeze potential still in there. And 3,000 could be a Rubicon, I think, for quite a lot of the bullion bank traders. Interesting position.

Recently, global markets have shown increasing signs of anxiety and uncertainty as investors brace for a potential disruption in major economies, particularly the United States. As the U.S. economy grapples with shifting trade policies and stock market volatility, concerns about a potential recession are growing. President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, which includes aggressive tariffs and deregulation efforts, has created uncertainty among investors and businesses.

While some indicators point to a slowdown, others suggest resilience. The debate over whether the United States is truly on the brink of a recession remains unsettled, but key warning signs are emerging. Concerns over a looming U.S. recession are growing as financial markets react to Trump’s latest trade policies and economic strategies.

Trump recently said he would not rule out the possibility of a recession. Key indicators such as GDP projections, consumer confidence, and stock market trends paint a mixed picture. Experts remain divided on whether a full-scale recession is imminent, but uncertainty rattles investors and businesses.

Alasdair Macleod suggests that gold has once again proven itself to be a safe haven asset in such an uncertain economic environment. With the growing risks of inflation, market instability, and potential financial crisis, investors increasingly turn to gold for protection and as a store of value. I mean, the point about the credit bubble is that this is the largest credit bubble in history.

And the easiest way to understand that, I mean, most people don’t understand that we are in a credit bubble, but if you tell them that we’re in a debt bubble, ah, now that makes sense. But credit is the other side of debt. Credit equals debt, always, always.

It’s two sides of a balance sheet. So if you’ve got maximum debt around, then obviously you’ve got maximum credit around. What the Austrian economists call the business cycle, in fact, is actually driven by bank credit.

And it’s when banks not so much destroy credit because it’s the only way credit can be destroyed is basically through defaults, if you like. What they will tend to do is they’ll tend to move their lending away from the private sector to safety. And the regulators say that the safest place to lend, of course, is short term to your government, which is why, you know, the government is selling so many T-bills, is particularly growing evidence that the global economy is slowing.

The U.S. economy is slowing. I mean, I think it was Atlanta Fed produced some quite alarming figures the other day, last week, suggesting that, you know, in the last quarter or the fourth quarter, whatever, things have actually slowed very, very sharply. And we’re now in a recession.

If we have another quarter like that, it’s going to be a technical recession or an official recession. But I mean, they’re only saying half the story, Danny, because if you take the budget deficit, which is roughly 6.5% of GDP, out of GDP, you’re then left with the private sector. And on the Congressional Budget Office’s own figures, total GDP, they expect in this current year to be growing at 4.5%. So on their figures, the private sector is already contracting by 2%.

And that’s in nominal terms. And then if you put in inflation adjusted or just CPI adjusted, you know, let’s not use any fancy numbers, just the official numbers, then quite clearly it’s contracting at the rate of about 5%. Now that, by any definition, is sort of verging on a slump.

So that is the background to it. And I think investors are beginning to get sort of concerned that this indeed is the case. I mean, they’ve ignored it so far.

They’ve ignored it because of greed. I mean, you’ve got all this credit. You know, a trillion dollars of leverage in the US stock market.

And the bulk of that, I guess, we don’t know for certain, but the bulk of that, I guess, was sort of chasing fancy tech stocks. So, you know, this bubble, when it bursts, I think could be rather nasty. And the other point I would make about it is that not only do we have a mega, mega, mega credit bubble bursting, we also have smooth-hauling mark-two tariffs being brought in by Trump.

And already you see, you know, the new prime minister in Canada saying, you know, we’re going to hit back with our own tariffs and all the rest of it. We’ve got exactly the same combination, but this time it’s actually a lot more violent. This is not good.

So I am extremely pessimistic on the outlook for stocks. I think that they will fall so much that stocks value is collateral, will start, if you like, upsetting the banking system. And, you know, we already have the commercial real estate disaster in America.

I also think that, I mean, obviously the Fed is going to do what it can to try and rescue this situation, but the extent to which it does it is going to undermine the dollar. So what are the foreigners going to do? The foreigners are going to say, you know, we don’t want our dollars anymore. It’s quite simple.

Now, their own currencies, I have to say, are in a similarly powerless condition. So what do they do? I mean, the only thing they do is just get out of credit and get into real money, which is gold. And so a brief summary of the current situation as I see it.

Clearly the rise in gold prices so far this year has been impressive. Still, market strategists believe this outperformance could continue, leading to upward revisions in their gold price forecasts. Factors such as ongoing global monetary easing, central bank purchases, particularly from the BRICS plus nations, and the demand for safe haven assets driven by geopolitical tensions will likely support gold’s upward trajectory.

As the global economic landscape remains uncertain, with rising concerns over inflation, political instability, and trade conflicts, investors may increasingly turn to gold as a store of value. Despite the strength of the US economy, which has bolstered the dollar and slowed expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, fears of an impending recession and economic slowdown could prompt gold prices to rise further. Should global economic conditions continue to deteriorate, gold will likely benefit as a safe haven asset, leading to an even more significant increase in value.

In this volatile environment, strategists expect gold to retain its appeal and further revisions in price forecasts are expected as market conditions evolve. That’s it for today. Share your thoughts on Alastair’s analysis of gold price prediction in the comment section below.

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