Gold’s Rise Warns of Dollar’s Demise (Uncut) 04-18-2025

Gold’s Rise Warns of Dollar’s Demise – Ep 1022

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The Peter Schiff Show. Hello, everybody. The big story of the week continues to be the relentless rise of the price of gold, hitting new record high after another.

We just finished this holiday shortened week and tomorrow is Good Friday. And so this Sunday is Easter. I got my Sundays mixed up on the last podcast, but gold managed to rise 2.7% this four day week.

Gold yesterday hit a new record high above 3,360. We closed the week, I think at 3,330. That is a huge move.

In fact, yesterday, gold had its biggest one day price increase dollar wise in history. At one point, I think it was up $114. I think it closed up about $109.

Now, you know, I’ve been in the investment business for over 30 years. I’ve never seen the price of gold rise by $100 in one day. I’ve now seen it three times, although it didn’t always close that high, but three times since Liberation Day.

So we really liberated gold on Liberation Day. But this is a big deal to see gold moving up like this. And, you know, I was forecasting years ago that one day we would see gold moving in much bigger increments.

Now, I know as the price of gold gets higher and higher, when you’re talking about $3,000 gold, $100 is not what it used to be. When gold was $300, $400, $500, right? If it moved $100, it would be much bigger. But, you know, I think we’re going to see days where gold’s up $200, $300.

I mean, those days are coming. But, you know, what’s more significant even, you know, than the increase in the price of gold is the fact that nobody cares. Nobody pays attention.

You know, I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. When you don’t know there’s a bubble, you don’t see the pin. And that, you know, is something that I came up with that line during the housing crisis.

Because a lot of people, even after 2007, after the subprime market really started to collapse, most people just shrugged it off. They didn’t care. They thought it was nothing.

They thought it was contained. I knew it wasn’t because I knew we were in a bubble. And I knew that subprime pricked it.

But because the mainstream had no idea that we had been living all those years in a bubble, they didn’t notice the pin. I did. Well, gold is the pin.

And Trump is the one that inserted it into the bubble. Now, gold was already rising before Liberation Day. But Trump really stuck it in there.

And the bubble is deflating. But if you don’t know that there’s a bubble to deflate, well, you don’t realize that it’s been pricked. And so you kind of make excuses for the pin, which is what CNBC is doing again.

I mean, they did it before when I was coming on their air, back in 2006 and 2007 and 2008 even, warning about the housing market and the financial crisis that would ensue when it popped. And they just labeled me Dr. Doom. And they had a lot of fun laughing at me and making fun of me until all my predictions came true.

And then they kind of stopped inviting me on, although they still invited me on a little bit, just not as much. And then they eventually, you know, once the Bitcoin advertisers, you know, showed up, they basically banned me completely. Maybe those things are just a coincidence.

I don’t know. But it’s interesting that the talking heads on CNBC are oblivious to gold and the bubble that’s been pricked. There is oblivious to this one as they were to the housing bubble.

But anyway, so I’m watching. I get up early in the morning. And, you know, sometimes I’m not sleeping that well.

So much stuff is happening at night. You know, I get up and I check the markets. And then, you know, it piques my interest.

I try to go back to sleep. Sometimes I do. And, you know, so I need to get more sleep.

But in any event, I’m up early. And this show Squawk Box comes on. And it starts at 6 a.m. New York time.

So it goes six to nine. And so I get up. And the price of gold is up $100 an ounce or 90 at that.

Maybe it was only 90 at that time. And I’m like, God, I got to, you know, this is a new record high. We’re, you know, we’re above $3,300 or, you know.

And I’m like, OK, yeah. I mean, this should be the lead story, right? I mean, you’re supposedly this financial news channel. You’re going to be bringing your audience the big financial news of the morning.

And you got gold up almost $100. You would think that this should be the first thing that they talk about. Because, you know, this is not just some commodity, some random commodity.

This is gold. Gold is special in the world of finance. Gold is the canary in the economic coal mine.

And it’s even yellow, right? So you’re supposed to pay attention to gold. And so I’m watching in bed. And, you know, I don’t want to wake my wife up.

So I’ve just got the earpiece in. And I’m watching it, you know. And the whole hour goes by.

And they don’t mention gold once. Not once. Now, yeah, there’s a ticker on the bottom that’s, you know, going by, you know, gold hits a record high.

But the on-air anchors who are talking about all kinds of stuff that they feel is important, they don’t mention gold once. Now, they actually mention Bitcoin. They didn’t dwell on it.

They said, hey, let’s check Bitcoin. Oh, Bitcoin is, you know, Bitcoin is flat. They didn’t bother to check gold, which was anything but flat, which maybe is why they didn’t want to mention it.

They don’t want to call attention to the fact that gold is way up and Bitcoin is not, right? Because they’re trying to get their audience to buy Bitcoin because they’re telling them it’s digital gold. So they don’t really want the audience to know. So anyway, I post on X. Hey, I watch for this whole hour and they haven’t even said anything on Squawk Box.

And I tag, you know, Joe Kernan. Now, it’s his show. Then the second hour goes by.

They don’t mention it again. We’re two hours into a three-hour show. Now, gold’s above.

It’s up more than $100 an ounce. It’s gone up more. So gold’s up more than $100, something that rarely happens.

The big financial news of the morning. And the whole second hour goes by. Not one mention of the price of gold.

So then in the commercial, you know, I post it up there again. I tag in Joe Kernan. I can’t believe these guys are not, they’re still not mentioning gold.

Right. So then the very first thing they talk about at the beginning of the third hour is gold. And I know they’re only talking about it because I goaded them into it.

Because the first thing that Joe Kernan says is, well, you know, there’s people out there, you know, gloating now, you know, doing victory laps about gold. Right. So he’s talking about me.

Right. It’s not that there’s some random people out there. There’s just me because I’m posted on X and I’m tagging the guy.

And, you know, I’m getting you know, I get it. I have a lot of followers on X. So but now I’m not making this stuff up. So they start talking about gold being up.

And so there’s there’s a woman, you know, it’s not just Joe Kernan. There’s you know, there’s a woman up there. I don’t know her name.

I don’t want to insult her. You know, I just don’t know her name. Right.

But anyway, so she makes an observation. She says, yeah, you know, gold’s really going up. It’s kind of acting like a meme coin these days.

A meme coin. She thinks gold is a meme coin. I mean, that shows you how little she knows about meme coins and gold.

But so she really believes and this is the on air expert. Right. The anchor.

Right. She’s not a guest. She’s a regular paid correspondent that just is there.

Right. And she thinks that foreign central bankers. Right.

These, you know, smart guys, older seasoned people that are working at these central banks and these other sophisticated investors around the world who are buying gold. They’re the same as kids buying fart coin. I mean, she thinks there’s no difference between gold and and fart coin.

There’s night and day. This is a significant move. But rather than saying, hey, gold’s really going up.

I mean, should we be concerned? You know what? What warning are you know, is gold giving us? She says, well, it must be like like fart coin. It’s acting like a meme coin. It’s just going up.

You know, meme coins go way up because there’s very little liquidity. There’s massive liquidity in the gold market. When you move gold, a hundred dollars an ounce, that takes real money.

I mean, you can move fart coin with a with a with a quiz, a tweet or a post, you know, just a little bit of money. There is no comparison. So why is she even comparing Bitcoin? I mean, gold to to a meme coin because she’s trying to dismiss it, make light of it, of the fact that it’s up.

And in fact, as soon as they started talking about it and they talked about, you know, gold is up. The next thing they talked about, the same segment is they said, well, but, you know, Bitcoin is up a lot more. I mean, had you bought Bitcoin, you know, I don’t know, 10 years ago, you’d have you’d have much more money than if you bought gold.

So it really is insignificant because gold is not even caught up to Bitcoin yet. So they’re trying to minimize the significance of the fact that gold is going up as almost the only reason they’re talking about it is to dismiss it and to laugh at and say, hey, look at all these fools buying gold. Right.

They’re just they’re just chasing this market. Right. It’s just going up for no reason.

Like this. Why does a meme coin, why does fart coin, you know, go up? You know, because people buy it. I mean, I mean, that’s the only reason.

Why do they buy it? Because they think some other idiot is going to buy it. They don’t care how much fart coin stinks. Right.

They’re they’re just buying it. And but gold is being bought for real serious reasons by serious people who are moving real money. Right.

Not, you know, the money, the people that the money that’s going into these meme coins. This is gambling money. You know, there are people that are buying five or ten dollars worth of fart coin.

I mean, there is serious money. There is millions, tens of hundreds of millions, billions of dollars moving into the gold market. And what is it moving out of? Because that’s also significant.

It’s not just that people are buying gold. What are they selling to get the money? Well, they’re selling their dollars. They’re selling their treasuries.

Right. The other big story that they dismiss on CNBC is the dollar. The dollar is getting clobbered.

The dollar hit a new three year low against the euro this week. It hit a 14 year low against the Swiss franc. You got all all these people, they say, oh, the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper.

Well, no, it’s not. The Swiss francs in that hamper. And it’s a hell of a lot cleaner.

And in fact, the Swiss franc is only a few percentage points away from an all time record high. You know, you need about a dollar twenty five, I think, to buy a Swiss franc right now. In 1971, you could buy one for twenty three cents.

So that is a huge drop in the value of the dollar relative to the Swiss franc. And of course, even the Swiss franc has gone down relative to gold. But it hasn’t gone down nearly as much as the US dollar.

Now, this year, year to date, the Swiss francs up about 11 percent. So is the Japanese yen. But the Japanese yen was beaten down.

But it’s made a big rally. The euro is up 10 percent this year. It’s gone from 104 on January 1st.

It’s at 114 where it closed the week. These are big moves. And what’s even more significant is that this is happening during a time of turmoil.

Trump basically started it with these tariffs, launched this global trade war, created all this economic uncertainty. No one knows what the hell is going on. Trade is a big part of the global economy.

And again, remember, all of these so-called experts predicted that tariffs would cause the dollar to go up. That’s why the dollar rallied right after Trump won, because the markets were saying, oh, we’re going to get tariffs. That’s good for the dollar.

And I kept saying no. In fact, you know, when the polls were swinging before he won, the dollar would go up when they thought Trump was going to win because they were saying, well, Trump’s going to be good for the dollar because he’s going to slap on all these tariffs. I knew the tariffs would not be good for the dollar.

But one of the reasons, too, is that people thought, well, you know, it’s going to be people are going to want a safe haven. Right. You know, they’re going to want a safe port in the storm.

You know, that’s going to be created by this trade war. Well, they’re not buying dollars. They’re selling dollars.

Gold is the safe haven. They’re not buying treasuries either, because I’ve said this before. When inflation is the threat, there is no safety in treasuries.

But the other problem, if the world now has moved away from dollars, away from treasuries and away from Bitcoin, not that they ever embraced it, but I’ll get back into that. Gold is the only safe haven standing. But what that means is if we have another financial crisis, which I believe we’re coming towards one quickly.

In 2008. The world responded to the financial crisis by buying dollars, and that’s what enabled QE to work. Right.

Because of foreign demand for dollars. That’s what kept the inflation that QE basically was. It kept it out of consumer goods and redirected it into financial assets.

So we didn’t have to suffer big rise in prices, even though we created all this money. Well, based on what’s happening now, if we have a crisis and instead of buying dollars, the world sells dollars and then the world, the Fed does QE and there’s no escape valve. Right.

That QE is not going into our bond market or our stock market. It’s going into the supermarket. Right.

Then we’re going to see the immediate consequences. So the Fed’s not going to be able to bail out the economy if the rest of the world is not cooperating, if we can’t export those dollars. Because remember, that’s what Trump wants to get rid of.

And I’m going to get back to that in a later segment here about the trade deficit. I want to stay on point on the markets for now. But so the dollar is going down and the fact that it’s going down means that the next time the Fed tries QE, it’s going to backfire because it’s going to fuel consumer prices rising, not financial prices rising.

So this is what gold is telling you. This is a huge warning sign. This is not a meme coin.

When gold moves like this, it means something. It’s up 25 percent this year and we’re only halfway through April and it’s 25 percent. And it’s happening when the market is down.

The S&P 500 is down 10 percent this year. So it’s down 35 percent priced in gold. This is a big decline and it is highly significant.

And the mainstream media is completely oblivious. We’ve got a quick commercial. We’re coming right back.

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That’s shopify.com slash gold. All right, so I want to talk to a little bit about the markets on the week. I mentioned what happened to the price of gold up about 2.7% on the week.

The stock market had another down week. I mean, we had some up days, but the Dow was down 2.7% on the week. And it’s now down 7.7% on the year approximately.

S&P 500, not as bad. The Dow got hit pretty hard. UnitedHealth got whacked, I think almost 20% today, and that really dragged down the Dow.

So that caused, I think, some extra weakness. But the S&P down 1.5% on the week, but it’s down 10%, as I mentioned, on the year. But the NASDAQ is down 16.5% year to date, and many stocks are down much more than that.

Down 2.7% on the week. The strongest of the indexes was the Russell 2000, got a little bit of a bounce up at 1%. So now it’s only down 15.8%, but it’s further from its high than the NASDAQ or the other indexes.

But now year to date, the NASDAQ is the biggest loser. But gold stocks had another good week, although not nearly as good a week as they should have. Gold was up 2.7%. The GDX was only up 2.4%. Should have been up a lot more.

Now the GDXJ, which has some of the smaller ones, not small in an absolute sense, but just smaller than the biggest ones, was up 4.7%. But listen to these year to date returns for those indexes. The GDX is up 51% this year. 51%.

The GDXJ is up 43%. Now I’m telling you, I’m watching the CNBC, and they’re talking about, hey, what should investors buy? I’ve been watching it for the last few weeks very intently, and nobody comes on the show. I mean, maybe a rare occasion, somebody on Fast Money, but throughout the day, during the day, and all these shows, and they have analyst after analyst coming on, and like, what should people buy? What should people buy? Buy Meta.

Buy Netflix. Buy NVIDIA. Nobody, nobody has come on that show and picked any of these gold stocks that are in this index, even though a lot of them are hitting 52-week highs.

The only ones that haven’t right now are Newmont and Barrick, but all the other stocks have made new highs on the year, and they’re way up. And they’re not even talking about these stocks. And so they’re just going to keep on rising.

You know, that’s why I’ve been telling people, and I got the special report. If you haven’t downloaded it, go to EuropePAC.com and get my special report, the best way to buy gold, which is to buy gold that’s still in the ground. How do you do that? You buy the gold mining stocks.

Because, again, the gold mining stocks are not priced for $3,300 gold. They’re not even priced for $2,300 gold. The whole rally, nobody believed in gold, so nobody wanted to buy the gold stocks because gold stocks are the present value of what you expect the company to earn.

And if you expect the gold price to collapse in the future, then you’re not going to pay up for a gold stock. Well, all these investors have been wrong in their expectation that gold would fall. The whole time it kept rallying, everybody waited for it to drop because maybe like these CNBC anchors, they didn’t know the difference between gold and a meme coin.

So they just figured, well, it’s a bubble. It’s just going to collapse, so let’s not buy these gold stocks because they’re just mining a bubble. So at some point, the naysayers in the investment world are going to throw in the towel on their negativity, and they’re going to have to come to the conclusion that gold’s not going back down to $1,500.

And that even if it goes down to $2,500, who cares because these stocks are very cheap with $2,500 gold, especially with $63, $64 oil, and especially where the dollar is against the Canadian dollar or the Australian dollar because that’s where gold is mined. The dollar went way down against the euro and the yen and the Swiss franc, but that’s not where the gold mines are. That’s not where the miners are getting paid.

They’re getting paid Aussie dollars. They’re getting paid Canadian dollars. Those currencies have actually gone down since Independence Day or Liberation Day.

So gold companies are going to earn a fortune, and that’s why I’m just telling people keep buying them, even though they’ve gone up a lot. And, of course, I was telling people to buy them pretty heavy last year. And so it’s 50% higher.

You’d have been better off buying them last year. But if you didn’t buy them last year, even though they’re up 50% this year, they’re still cheap. In fact, you could argue that gold mining companies are even cheaper now than they were before the 50% rise because of how much gold has gone up and the fact that the stocks have not kept pace with the increase in the price of gold.

So you’ve got to go and you’ve got to buy these gold mining stocks. And, you know, instead of talking about how well these stocks are doing and gold, they’re still talking Bitcoin. And, in fact, I’m not making this up.

What they’re talking about now, Bitcoin was probably up about 1% on the week, right? So not as much as gold, but it didn’t go down. And what are these guys on CNBC talking about? How resilient Bitcoin is, right? Instead of saying, hey, wait a minute, gold’s gone up massively and Bitcoin’s gone down. Maybe we’re wrong here.

Maybe it’s not really digital gold. Instead of focusing on the fact that Bitcoin didn’t go up when it should have, they’re like, oh, this is great because it didn’t go down. Well, first of all, it already went down, right? It’s down.

Bitcoin is down on the year about I think about 11%, so pretty much in line with the S&P, but a little less than the NASDAQ. And that’s the silver lining they’re finding in the Bitcoin cloud is that, hey, over the last couple of weeks, it hasn’t gone down. And that’s what they’re saying validates it.

They’re missing the fact that the failure to rally invalidates it. But also, yes, Bitcoin hasn’t gone down in dollars, but it’s been killed in euros. It’s been killed in yen.

It’s been killed in pounds. It’s been killed in Swiss francs. So the people in those countries are not seeing any store of value in Bitcoin, but they are in gold.

So what’s happening right now repudiates everything that they’ve been selling their audience. Yet instead of questioning that, they’re talking about how resilient Bitcoin is and missing the real picture in the fact that it failed to rally during the precise circumstances it was supposed to rally. And now I even hear people say, well, we never said Bitcoin was digital gold.

Well, of course you did. That’s why everybody bought those Bitcoin ETS. But, you know, also, it’s not just gold that’s going up.

I’ve been talking about my fund, remember, and my gold fund, Europe Pacific Gold Fund, EPGIX. Some people have pointed out, hey, you know, your fund is underperforming, right? Why should we buy your fund? It’s not performing as well as these competitors. It’s still up a lot on the year.

It’s just not up as much as most gold funds. And that’s because we have built a huge overweight in the juniors and not like the fake juniors in the GDX. They’re not real juniors.

They’re just junior to the seniors. But we own stocks that are too small to be in the GDXJ. And what’s happened is the big stocks have outperformed.

And you can see that year to date, the GDX is up 51 percent. The GDXJ is up 43 percent. So the juniors haven’t moved as much.

And the junior juniors have moved even less. And we’ve built huge positions in those stocks. And they’re not very liquid.

It took us a long time to accumulate. And a lot of them we got on private placements where the companies, you know, were raising money. And so we bought placements.

And we’ve also got warrants, which are not even really being valued. And so when money really starts coming into the sector, and I believe a lot of money is going to come into the gold mining sector, when it tries to get into the juniors to get that leverage, these things are going to really move. So I think my fund, my gold fund is going to go, you know, from the bottom to the top.

But the key is to buy it now before it goes to the top. A lot of other people are going to send us money after they see that we’ve got the number one gold fund. But before it gets to number one, you want to buy it so you can participate in that outperformance that will bring it to that level.

Now, again, you know, it’s not a guarantee. But I trust Adrian. I think he knows what he’s doing.

And I think the stocks that he is buying, because he knows, you know, the ones to avoid, right? There’s a lot of land mines in these junior gold mines. So you have to know what not to buy, you know, as much as which ones to buy. But I think we’ve got a great portfolio that nobody can really duplicate.

And all the bigger gold funds that have a lot more money, they probably can’t even play in that sandbox. So it’s a great time to buy my gold fund, EPGIX. But another fund that I have that’s in first place year to date, which really shows this, is my dividend payer fund.

It’s now up 21 percent on the year. This isn’t a gold fund. This is a value stock dividend paying fund that’s up 21 percent year to date.

It’s the number one fund in its category of large cap value. There’s 373 funds that are in that category. This is Morningstar.

My fund is number one. The average return on the funds in the category is 7 percent. And I’m at 21.

So I’m triple. I’m triple the average fund. So we’ve got a great portfolio.

We do have a few gold stocks in there. That’s helping. Most of our competitors probably have no gold stocks.

So the gold stocks have helped, obviously. But even if you Xed out the gold stocks, we’re still doing really well. But the symbol on that one is EPDIX, Euro Pacific Dividend.

That’s the no load advisors class. So at any of the discount brokers where you buy my gold fund, you can also buy my dividend payer fund. Because I think a lot of money is going to be flowing out of U.S. assets into foreign assets, particularly because of the return differentials.

Now, I think the initial money is going to be foreign money leaving the U.S. market because of the losses. See, there’s been a lot of foreign money in our markets because they’ve been making a ton of money. But now they’re getting killed because the S&P is down 10 percent year to date.

NASDAQ down 16 and a half percent. But not if you’re in Europe. If the dollar is down 10 percent and you’re a European and you look at your brokerage statement, which is in euros and you own the S&P, you’re down 20 percent.

If you own the NASDAQ, you’re down 26 and a half percent. That’s a big loss. So I think what’s going to happen is foreigners are now going to pull their money out of U.S. assets because they’re doing lousy.

And when they look at valuations, their own stocks are much cheaper. They have lower PEs and they have higher dividend yields. Now, that’s been true for a while, but nobody cared about the fundamentals when the U.S. stock had momentum.

So when the U.S. stocks were outperforming, people excused the valuation because they weren’t buying U.S. stocks because they were a good value. They were buying them because they were going up. But now that they’re not going up, they’re going down.

Now, valuation matters. So I think a lot of the foreign money is coming out of our stock market. Obviously, it’s going to come out of our bond market because foreigners are taking an even bigger beating in our bonds than they are in our stocks.

If you’re in Europe and you bought U.S. treasuries, you’re down 10 percent just on the forex. Now, the yield on a treasury is only 4 percent. So I bought a 4 percent investment and I’ve already lost 10 percent on a foreign exchange.

I’ve wiped out two and a half years worth of my coupon in a matter of months. No, thank you. Right.

So the returns on our bond. So the world is selling bonds just when we need them to buy more because we’re running these massive deficits that are about to get even bigger. So the world’s going to take money out.

But then Americans are going to be taking their money out of U.S. markets, too. Not for the same reason. The foreigners are trying to avoid losses in the U.S. But Americans are going to be seeing the huge gains, even bigger gains than the foreigners.

For example, one of the reasons that my my fund is up so much is because of the foreign exchange. I mean, I think the German market, the DAX, maybe is only up a couple of percent this year. But when you factor in the euro, maybe it’s up 12 percent.

So when Americans look at European stocks. From the vantage point of a U.S. dollar based investor, they see even bigger gains. So as the dollar makes you a falling dollar, it makes U.S. investments less attractive to the rest of the world.

A falling dollar makes foreign investments more attractive to Americans. And so these dynamics, once they’re in play, they are going to feed on themselves for years and years to come. Which is why I’m telling everybody, you know, get out of these U.S. stocks.

They’re overpriced and they’re going down. And get out of the dollar because it’s overpriced and going down. And you buy foreign stocks.

You buy gold stocks. The emerging markets are going to be the next one. I got an emerging market fund and that’s really not doing anything.

I think the emerging markets are going to be the last to move, but they may move the most. Because I think the emerging markets have the most to gain from the dollar’s demise, which is coming. And still so many people don’t understand this.

They think that, you know, de-dollarization is going to lead to a stronger dollar. Because they look at all this debt, right? All these foreign countries have debt and the debt is dollar denominated. And they’re like, well, how are they going to get the dollars to repay their debt? If, you know, there’s smaller trade deficits and the world is de-dollarizing.

Well, they’ll buy them. They’ll buy the dollars that are going to be a lot cheaper from all the people who are going to be selling their dollars. And, you know, most of the dollar debt that is owed by foreign businesses is owed to other foreign lenders.

They’re not owed to Americans. You’ve got somebody in Indonesia borrowing money from somebody in Germany, and they made the loan in dollars. Now, when the Indonesian company, and maybe they’re earning rupee or other currencies that are now appreciating, but they’re earning these currencies and they have this dollar debt, and they pay off the dollar debt, what is the German going to do the minute he gets those dollars? He’s going to sell them to get euros.

Meanwhile, when the world stops hoarding our dollars and buying our treasuries, what does that mean to the supply of dollars? It goes up because now the Federal Reserve has to buy all the bonds. I mean, it doesn’t have to, but it will to stop everything from imploding. So if foreigners don’t want to buy our bonds, the Fed will.

But the Fed creates new dollars. When foreigners buy the bonds, they use dollars that already exist. But when the Fed buys bonds, it creates more dollars out of thin air.

So de-dollarization is negative for the dollar. I don’t know how people were able to concoct this theory that somehow people moving out of the dollar was going to push the dollar up, not down. But there’s so many foolish things that I hear people saying now about trade and about the U.S. You know, I was reading this editorial in the China Daily, you know, and it’s ironic because, you know, people say, well, the Chinese rip off our intellectual property.

Well, in this case, it was true because they plagiarized my ex posts because they basically word for word took everything I’ve been posting and they put it in this article to explain that America was not screwing over. I mean, China wasn’t screwing over America, that America was taking advantage of the world, that it was getting a free ride on the global gravy train, that we were living beyond our means, that we had an artificially high standard of living that was not commensurate with our productivity. I mean, all the things I’ve been saying, this guy put it in his article.

But, you know, I got to counter all the the nonsense. That I’m hearing out there about about trade, like. One of the things that that was Trump or, you know, one of his advisers said that, you know, China is desperate to make a deal was probably Trump.

China needs to make a deal because China wants what we have. The American consumer, right, so China wants consumers. There’s a billion Chinese.

Why would they need consumers? They got more consumers in China than we got in America. Like, what’s so special about the American consumer that China needs us? Right. Well, it’s all because we have dollars.

But the dollar, again, only has value because countries like China give it value because they’re buying it. They’re holding it. Right.

But if they stop doing that, the dollar is going to tank. And meanwhile, the American consumer is loaded up with debt, record household debt, record credit card debt. And a lot of them are about to be unemployed.

Now, I keep talking here and on that same CNBC. All they talk about is how strong the consumer is. How can the consumer be strong when savings are at a record low and debt is at a record high? That’s not a sign of a strong consumer.

A strong consumer has paid off all of his debt. That’s strength. Right.

I have a lot of buying power because I’m out of debt. When you when you can’t buy groceries unless you put it on your credit card, when you can’t order Uber Eats without, you know, financing it over installments. That’s not a strong consumer.

That’s a desperate consumer. And China needs us like they like they need a hole in the head. We need China.

China’s got what we want. What is China have factories that we don’t have? And what are those factories produce all these goods that we want, but we can’t produce. So China has what we want.

You know, Bessett said that China can’t sit at this table with us because they got deuces. They’re holding deuces. And Trump has got a royal flush.

Right. Like Trump’s got the nut. Right.

He’s got the hand that can’t lose. And China’s got nothing. I mean, that shows you how they don’t understand this game.

We don’t have the cards. Having the factories and the infrastructure supply chain. Those are the cards.

That’s the strong hand. Having nothing but debt laden consumers who can only buy if the people with the cards lend them the money. Right.

They are the strong ones. It’s not it’s not us. And I also hear people say, well, you know, China is not going to sell their treasuries.

Right. I mean, that would be shooting themselves in the foot. Yeah.

But they’d be shooting us in the head. But they don’t really shoot themselves in the foot, actually. But they say China is not going to sell its treasuries because that would make their currency go up.

That would push the dollar down. And then it would make it even harder for them to export to the United States. Well, we’ve already made it impossible.

Right. With our one hundred and forty five percent tariffs. So, I mean, a 10 percent appreciation, 20 percent appreciation.

Do you want is it really going to move the needle? Oh, I didn’t want to buy that product when it was one hundred and forty five percent more expensive. So I’ll buy it at one hundred twenty five percent. No, doesn’t matter if they depreciate the currency.

So even if the currency goes up and now stuff is one hundred and sixty five percent more instead of one hundred and forty five percent more, you’re still not buying it. But here’s the reality. What China needs.

Right. They’re saying, well, China needs the consumer. Well, you know how China gets more consumers with real demand is dump their dollars, dump their treasuries, dump all their dollar denominated debt and just buy more gold.

Right. With that money and then back their currency with gold and have a really strong currency. And then all of their workers and savers and there’s a lot of savings in Japan and all of that, I mean, in China.

And all of that savings is going to gain value from a stronger yuan. And what’s going to happen when Chinese consumers are a lot richer? They’re going to buy more stuff. And it just so happens that they’ve got the stuff.

They got all the stuff that they were sending to America that they can now send in China. You know, they’re saying like, oh, you know, all these shoe factories, right. Like, OK, yeah, the Chinese need, you know, American feet, right.

To sell these shoes. Well, they got feet in China. I mean, maybe they don’t have to make as many size 12 or size 13.

You know, maybe the Chinese are a little smaller feet. I don’t know. But, you know, they can make it whatever size they want, you know.

And so they got plenty of feet in China. Right. And they’ll buy these shoes.

They’ll be happy to walk a mile in our shoes. The problem is we’re going to be walking barefoot. Right.

You know, it’s going to be a good occupation in America. Shoe repairman, cobbler, right. People are going to be fixing their old shoes because they can’t afford to buy new ones because the Chinese are going to have them.

And, of course, not just going to be the Chinese, because the Chinese are going to trade more with countries like Brazil. And so, you know what? When China buys soybeans from Brazil, now those Brazilian farmers can buy some, you know, Nikes or whatever, you know, whatever they’re making over there. Now they have more money.

The world is not going to miss a beat without the U.S. In fact, they’re going to be better off because we’re a net drag. Right. There’s if you figure this whole global pot, pot.

Right. And every country puts in like when you produce, you’re adding something to this global pot. Every time you produce, you put something in the pot.

And then when you consume, you take something out. Right. So America puts in a lot less than it takes out.

So what does that mean? That means there’s a lot less left over for everybody else. So if America gets shut out of global trade, even if they got shut out completely. Right.

So we’re not putting anything into the pot, but we’re not taking anything out of the pot. But because we took out more than we put in, there’s a lot left. There’s a lot more in that pot for for everybody, everybody else.

But, you know, probably one of the dumbest comments I’ve heard made from Scott Besson in his in his critique of China. And he said, you know, China’s got the most imbalanced economy in the world and they have to fix that. Right there.

Their economy is imbalanced. Now, why did he say it was imbalanced? He said because they have too big a surplus. They have a big trade surplus.

So they’re they’re imbalanced. He said they they produce so much more than they consume. Yeah, well, so what? It’s they’re imbalanced in a good way.

Like, yeah, China is just too productive. Right. They’re making so much stuff they can’t even consume at all.

And so they can exchange it with other people and get assets. It’s like, you know, they’re making way too much money in China. Right.

Their economy is so successful that they produce more than they can consume. And they’re able to help satisfy the demands of the rest of the world and collect assets, bonds, stocks, real estate. They’re producing their their way to wealth.

It’s imbalanced in a good way. But our economy is even more imbalanced because we got a bigger trade deficit than they have a surplus. So we’re actually the most imbalanced economy in the world.

But it’s not just the pot calling the kettle black because they’re imbalanced in a good way. We are imbalanced in a horrible way. We are the world’s biggest debtor nation.

We consume way more than we produce. That is the problem. That is a sign of weakness, not strength, because we are incapable of producing the goods that we need.

Therefore, we rely on what the rest of the world produces to satisfy our demands. China doesn’t need that. China is self-sufficient.

They’re more than self-sufficient. They make more than they need. What is better, if you can make more than you need or you can’t make as much as you need? Right.

If you make too much food, what’s the worst thing that’s going to happen? Some of it’s going to rot. If you don’t make enough food, you could starve to death. Right.

So what do you want to have? A surplus? Do you want to have abundance or do you want to have scarcity? See, according to the secretary of the Treasury, supposed to be one of the smartest guys. Right. That’s why he got the job.

Right. According to him, scarcity is better than abundance. China having too much is a problem.

Us having too little is great. Right. We’ve got all the cards.

We’re the envy of the world because we don’t have enough. Our economy is so inefficient that we can’t produce enough stuff for ourselves. Now, just even watching today, again, a fisherman was talking about, you know, hey, he wants doge to, you know, let’s have some deregulation in the fishing industry.

Yes, we have way too much regulation in the fishing industry, which is why we import 80 to 90 percent of our seafood. But what does that mean? It means that, you know, we don’t produce enough food and at least seafood. And so we rely on foreign fishermen because we don’t catch enough fish ourselves.

That’s a problem. And again, it’s not because other countries cheat. We import fish from China.

It’s not because China’s cheating. Our government’s cheating us. We have too much regulation in our industries.

We can’t complain. Well, we can’t compete with them because they don’t have enough regulation. Well, yeah, that that’s good for them.

We you know, we crippled our fishers, our fishermen, and now we can’t compete with China’s fishermen who their government didn’t cripple. Well, of course we can’t blame their government for not doing the same dumb thing to their fishermen that that that we did to our fishermen. You know, the other thing, too, is China’s got trade deficits.

I mean, with at least a dozen other countries. Right. So if the reason that we have a trade surplus deficit with China is because China’s cheating.

Well, why do so many other countries have a surplus? I mean, do they just cheat Americans? Is China being fair to all these other countries and just decides to cheat Americans? They’re not cheating. We’re blaming China for our problems. You know, we have a surplus with China in services.

Are we cheating China? You know, we have a surplus in services all over the world. Are we cheating? No, we’re actually competitive in services. We’re not competitive in manufacturing.

That is our problem. That ain’t China’s problem. Right.

It’s like, you know, the Democrats, what they like to do is they they play the victim card. Right. That’s how they get votes.

They convince people that they’re victims, that the reason they can’t succeed is because the deck is stacked against them. Right. You know, if you’re black, why can’t you get ahead? Why are you know why? Why can’t you hold down a job or get a job or why? Why? It’s because of racism.

Racism is keeping you down. Right. If you’re if you’re a woman, it’s it’s a misogynist society.

It’s sexism. That’s why you haven’t achieved your goals. Right.

It’s not your fault. It’s because this sexist society is oppressing you. Right.

You know, you’re gay. Oh, it’s the homophobes. That’s why.

Right. You got to figure out, you know, how you can convince somebody that they’re being oppressed as an excuse for their own failure. And again, I’m not saying not every African-American, not everyone.

There’s plenty of them that succeed. But the ones who aren’t succeeding and who aren’t succeeding because of what they’re doing. Right.

But that makes them feel better about themselves. Yeah. It’s not my fault.

You know, it’s not my fault that I’m poor. It’s racism. It’s sexism.

I was screwed. I had no chance. Right.

So you can make excuses for your own failings. But now the politician gets your vote because he says, you vote for me and I’m going to punish those racist, sexist homophobes. Right.

And and and that’s how you’re going to get even. I’m going to level the playing field by taxing them and taking their money and giving it to you because you deserve it, because you’re so oppressed. Right.

That’s that’s their playbook. And that’s that’s how they get votes. And the Republicans, right.

You know, they want to make fun. Yeah, they don’t do that. Well, that’s what they’re doing right now on a global scale.

The Republicans are trying to tell us that the reason we have a trade deficit is because the rest of the world is cheating us. The rest of the world is screwing us over. They’re not.

We did it to ourselves. And the problem is when you make excuses, you don’t actually solve problems because solutions. So excuses are not solutions.

Right. So to solve the problem, you have to reflect on what’s causing it. This is a sideshow.

If we pretend that it’s cheating, then we’re not going to get to the root cause of our own lack of competitiveness. And all these supposed trade deals that Trump is working on right with 70 different countries, none of them are going to move the needle. Even if we remove all the tariffs, which we won’t do, but even if the world went to zero tariffs, which which would be a win.

Right. I mean, that would be better than where we are now. But that’s not going to make our trade deficits go away.

Not even close to going away. Right. But it’s a distraction from from the real the real economy and the real issues that are not being addressed.

Because Trump is spending so much time trying to negotiate trade deals and ignoring the actual the actual problems. You know, the only way only thing that anybody is criticizing Trump for on the Republican side is the fact that they’re talking about raising taxes on the rich, meaning allowing the tax cuts to expire on the top bracket so that the top rate would go back up near 40 percent or maybe just for, you know, millionaires. Right.

And the the Democrats, the Republicans are saying, oh, this would be a disaster. We can’t raise taxes on the rich. This is going to crush the economy.

Oh, yeah. But they have no problem with raising taxes on the middle class, the poor with these tariffs. Right.

So they won’t criticize Trump’s tariffs. But no, no, no. Is any talk about letting the top rate go from 37 to 40? Now, of course, look, I like marginal lower marginal taxes as well as as much as the next guy.

But that’s not what’s going to destroy the country. Right. I can imagine if we do do that and everything falls apart.

Right. They’re going to say, ah, you see, we told you so. Raising taxes from 37 to 40 percent.

That’s what crashed the economy. Right. That will have nothing to do with what’s going to crash the economy.

It’s all the other stuff that the Republicans refuse to criticize Trump for that are going to be the big problems. And, you know, it’s also a front string. I’m watching like a lot of these Bitcoiners, maybe not all of them.

Oh, and by the way, I did agree. I’m going to speak at the Bitcoin conference. Their annual conference is coming up in in May, put on by Bitcoin magazine.

You know, the owners, they live here in Puerto Rico. So that’s how I’m friendly with these guys. But I agreed to come down and speak.

And it’s going to be to me. It’s like I’m doing the mortgage banker speech in 2006 where I went to Vegas. They talked to a bunch of mortgage bankers telling them that the mortgage market was going to collapse.

So now I’m going to the Bitcoin community and tell 30,000, you know, deranged Bitcoin cult members, you know, that, you know, their religion is all wrong and that Bitcoin is about to collapse. So I think it’s going to be maybe like a similar thing. So so if you’re going to be there, I’ll see you there.

But that’s coming up in late May. But a lot of these Bitcoin guys who were saying the same the same stuff I was saying. And they were saying the same stuff as me because a lot of them got it from me.

Right. But as I was talking about the deficits and the debt and, you know, a dollar crisis and inflation and all that stuff. And I was telling people, that’s why you should buy gold.

The Bitcoin guys were saying the exact same thing right up until the point where I said, and that’s why you should buy gold. And they just substitute it. And that’s why you should buy Bitcoin.

Right. So they were pretty much, you know, repeating my talking points, which weren’t just talking points. They’re things I actually believe and things that are true.

But they were saying the same thing and just saying buy Bitcoin. Well, now a lot of those guys are saying the opposite of what I’m saying, but they’re still saying buy Bitcoin. They’re saying that we don’t have to worry about inflation.

We don’t have to worry about debt because Trump is solving that. Right. We’re cutting spending.

We’re going to reduce the debt. The tariffs are going to work. Right.

We’re going to, you know, Trump keeps talking about, you know, I listen to him today. He talks about all the money that he goes. He goes, we’re being we’re getting all this money from tariffs.

Right. We’re getting money. We’re making money on steel.

We’re making money on cars. What’s this? We when he says we, he doesn’t mean we like us, like me and you, the American people. He means we like the government.

Yes. The government is making money off of tariffs because the people are paying those tariffs. Right.

But a lot of these Bitcoin are saying the same nonsense that the Trump administration is saying. The foreigners pay the tariffs, external revenue. Trump’s a genius.

We’re going to pay down the debt. Inflation is not an issue. Right.

Hey, the Fed can cut rates because inflation is not an issue. Right. I’m saying the Fed should be hiking rates.

And but they’re basically saying all this stuff. They’re the ones that kiss in Donald Trump’s ass. Right.

Donald Trump is pretending that the foreign leaders are calling them up, kissing his ass. They’re not kissing his ass. The Bitcoin are kissing his ass.

Why are they kissing Trump’s ass? Because Trump is all that stands between them and a Bitcoin crash. Because he’s the Bitcoin president. He’s got the strategic reserve.

So they have to, you know, basically back everything this guy says in their mind to secure his continued support for their token. Right. So now, you know, there’s nothing to worry about.

But if that’s true, if Trump’s really going to solve all these problems, then what the hell do you need Bitcoin for? Right. You don’t need you don’t need Bitcoin, by the way. You know, Powell talked yesterday as the market was going down and he talked in an interview and his words made the market go down even more.

And because he basically acknowledged that, you know, we might not be able to cut rates as early as we thought, because, you know, the tariffs are bigger than we thought and we’re really not sure how big the effect is going to be on inflation. And we have to make sure that inflation psychology. So he was kind of acknowledging that there’d be more inflation, which, of course, there’s gonna be a lot more inflation than what he’s acknowledging.

And he should be raising rates based on what’s happening with gold, what’s happening with the dollar. But this infuriated Trump. And Trump was interviewed today and he was like, you know, chastising Powell for, you know, not cutting rates and talking about, you know, the ECB just cut rates a quarter point.

And he’s like, you see, they should be more like Europe. And he said, no, no, because Powell is just, you know, he’s playing politics, he’s being political. And that’s why he’s not cutting rates, which is ironic, because if Powell was being political, he’d be cutting rates.

That’s what being political is. All the political pressure on central bankers is always to be too easy. Politicians want cheap money.

They always do because they want to buy votes. They want to spend more money. So the whole purpose or one of the purposes of having an independent central bank is so it’s above politics.

And so if a central bank is political, you’re cutting rates. In fact, when Donald Trump ran against Hillary Clinton, he accused Janet Yellen of being political for Obama by keeping rates too low. And he was correct.

Keeping rates artificially low when they should be higher is a political move. That’s what Powell is doing now. Powell should be raising rates.

They’re too low. The fact that he’s not raising rates is political. But so Trump has got it backwards.

You don’t you don’t you’re not tight because of politics. You when you’re tight, the politicians hate you. Right.

If that’s what Volcker did, Volcker didn’t play politics. He hiked rates. All these other central bankers are.

But Powell is not playing politics. If he was, he’d be cutting rates, which is what exactly what what what Trump wants him to do. But he is indicating that as soon as as Powell’s term is is finished, he is going to replace Powell with somebody who will be political, who will do what what the president wants.

And that’s and that’s cut rates. And so that is that is what’s coming. And I mean, that is the bottom line.

Right. Massive QE. We are heading to another financial crisis.

Only it’s not a global crisis. It’s going to be a U.S. crisis. We’re going to liberate the world.

Because they’re not going to be dragged down. They’re not going to be buying our dollar and buying our debt. They’re going to be taking their money home, keeping their goods for themselves.

And so the world is going to be better off keeping its stuff and investing its savings in their own economies rather than giving us their stuff and investing their money here in America. And a lot of the investments were just in the bonds. They can invest far more productively at home.

So. The bottom line is we don’t have the cards and all of this is a distraction from the crisis that’s happening in plain sight. I mean, I was amazed at how obvious the 2008 financial crisis was, yet how oblivious everybody was to that crisis.

Well, the one that we’re heading for now should be even more obvious. Yet the same people who couldn’t see that crisis coming, they don’t see this crisis coming either. Anyway, I wish everybody have a happy Easter, Easter weekend.

I’ll be back, you know, next week again. We’re going to be doing more podcasts. You know, I did a four hour spaces on X one of these days during the week.

May was Tuesday or Wednesday. So make sure you follow me on X. Sometimes I just feel like going on and then I just stay on for hours and people come up and they ask me questions. So it’s a lot more interactive than my than my podcast.

And of course, if you didn’t listen live, you can go to X now and you can hear the whole four hours of that spaces. It’s up on my on my feed. Just got to scroll down and and you and you can see it.

But anyway, don’t also go and subscribe to my newsletter at chip sovereign dot com. Go to your pack dot com. Get my special report on the best way to buy gold.

Look at my gold fund. E.P.G. I.X. Look at my dividend payers fund. E.P.D. I.X. You know, just if you just want to play it safe and buy some conservative stocks outside the United States, which is where all the money I believe is going to be flowing.

That’s what you got to do. You could do some homework, read up on these funds, read that report over the weekend and get ready to redeploy some of your investments on on on Easter Monday, which is not a high. You know, I just heard some politicians talking that not only do they want Good Friday to be a day off.

Now they want Easter Monday. We you know, we don’t celebrate Easter money, Easter Monday in the United States. I know they do it in some countries.

We do get a three day week and they want to turn it into a four day weekend. Sure. Let’s give all our government employees another day off.

So that’s also in the works. You know, we’re broke. Right.

And we’re talking about, you know, wasting more money on on more holidays. But we’ll be back in business. The U.S. market will be trading on on Monday and it’ll be a regular week.

And I’ll be back with another podcast or two, depending on my mood. But anyway, take care, everybody.