Is The Market Crash OVER? (Uncut) 04-09-2025

 Is The Market Crash OVER? (here’s when they start money printing) | Simon Hunt

One of my closest Chinese friends talking to him this morning, he said, watch out for wars. I said, you mean in Iran? He said, no, I mean Taiwan. So, you know, I mean, it’s an obvious, you want to play tough with us, we’ll play tough with you.

I think that we were having a dead cat bounce now. I think the markets will then retest the recent lows in maybe end of this month, the central banks and the governments will introduce major monetary and fiscal stimuli, which will lead to an 18 to 24 month huge rally in equity markets, inflation. Inflation goes back to where we were in 1980, 13% in the USA.

But what does that mean for long bond deals? Double digits. What does double digits do to financial markets and the world economy? Crash. You’re watching Capital Cosm.

My name is Danny and today’s guest is Simon Hunt from Simon Hunt Strategic Services. Simon, thank you so much for coming on, my friend. Well, my pleasure.

Good to see you again. Yeah, likewise. It’s been, I think we’ve got like a monthly program going on, you and I, Simon.

So it’s always a great pleasure having you on, a great pleasure hearing your insights, invaluable stuff there. It seems like each time I have you on, there’s just way more stuff for me to talk about. Like I have to cram in so much stuff on the table for us to talk about.

And this month is no exception. We have the launching of the Terra Force. We are on April 8th, about a week removed from Liberation Day, and it looks like the markets have rebounded.

So we’ll get your take on that, whether you think this is a dead cat bounce or are we heading up for another crack up boom, so to speak. And then we’ll also talk about some geopolitical happenings going on, more specifically as it relates to Iran. That’s the hot button issue right now.

We saw Netanyahu make his way into the Oval Office yesterday and field questions with Trump. So we’ll dig into that as well. So with all that said, Simon, thank you for coming on again.

Where do you want to start here? What is front and center for you right now? I think let’s give something of a background and the main points that I see emerging from not just the tariff war. The tariff war is part of the geopolitical war. They’re both interlinked.

So let’s go through this briefly and then try and answer any questions that you have. Very many. So let’s kick off.

Fear and uncertainty abound, reflected in the fall in stock markets. Trump’s shock and awe tariff policies, though well thought through, are dividing the world between those countries which want a negotiated trade settlement in return for a security umbrella and those countries that don’t want to grow into being satellites of America. The divide is basically between America and her dependent countries and the BRICS group of nations.

What is becoming clear is that Russia and China have taken decisions to stand firm against America. Just a few days before Trump’s statement of tariff policy, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, was in Moscow. On his return, China announced their imposition of a 34% tariff on the import of all American goods into China.

China is not going to back down, even if America imposes more tariffs on Chinese exports. Nor will Russia agree a quick fix to the Ukrainian war. Now Trump is talking about negotiating directly with Iran, whereas Iran states that they will be in indirect negotiations with America.

The terms that Trump has laid out on the 4th of February are based on a national security presidential memorandum, so a legally binding document that requires government agencies to carry out specific actions. The demands are basically the following. That Iran be denied a nuclear weapon, denied intercontinental missiles, denied other asymmetric and conventional weapons, imposing maximum economic pressure on Iran, and drive Iran’s oil exports to zero.

In short, if Trump keeps to these demands, and if Iran accepted them, the country would be open to anybody just walking into Iran and taking over power. That is exactly what America and Israel want. Regime change, backed by the late Shah’s son, who lives in Virginia.

Of course, Iran will decline these demands, and so the risk of an attack on the country rises. Russia and China will support Iran, of that there is no doubt. Iran is central to the BRIC strategy, as both the north-south corridor and the east-west one is linked directly into Iran.

China’s long-term vision for Iran is to build the country’s manufacturing sector, sector using their own SOE companies, and then have Iran as their new export base. Cheaper labor plus China’s manufacturing prowess will be an unbeatable combination. Coming back to the possible, if not probable, trade war between China and America.

China has done their homework. No way will America be able to rebuild a new industrial base in anything less than 5 to 10 years. They don’t have the skilled workforce.

It will take months of planning before companies will decide whether to rebuild in America or locate plant offshore. Meanwhile, America does not have the capital goods equipment capacity to furnish such a transition, and most of them anyway are imported from China. Here are a few examples that I picked up of the percentage of China’s imports into different sectors of America.

Consumer electronics 39%, home appliances 24%, textiles and clothing 26%, construction machinery 60%, electrical equipment 23%, transport equipment 10%. So, you have a trade war between China and America. Who is going to win it? I think that the odds are very high that it would be China that would win a trade war.

The big question is, will a trade war move into a real war? We come back to Iran. Perhaps the big objective of Trump’s proposed attack on Iran is to deny China such a large percentage of its oil imports, something between 80 and 90%. How then would or could, some of my Chinese friends say, would China react? And it would also be a liability.

Can I finish? This is important. America denies China a large part of its oil imports. If China blockaded or invaded Taiwan, China would stop most of America’s chip imports that originate from Taiwan.

Do we get there? It’s a toss of the coin. Yes, and it would also be a liability for Russia as well, because now they have a wild card near their southern border, who they may not know would be friendly with Russia too. So, Russia doesn’t stand to benefit with a new regime in Iran, neither does China.

I found it particularly interesting that if you looked at when all these armaments started building up in Diego Garcia, which is a couple thousand miles away from Iran, essentially striking distance to Iran, you started seeing Chinese ships encircling Taiwan, almost as if to say, if you hit Iran, we’re going to take Taiwan. Yes, that’s it. That’s why one of my closest Chinese friends talking to him this morning, he said, watch out for wars.

I said, you mean in Iran? He said, no, I mean Taiwan. So, you know, I mean, it’s an obvious, you want to play tough with us, we’ll play tough with you. And the basic message is China and Russia are standing firm.

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And on top of that, you have the new Afghani Taliban led government supposedly allowing the CIA to use Bargham Air Force Base, which is interesting because it is within, again, striking distance to Iran. So, you know, we had this narrative that the U.S. left Afghanistan, but it seems like we’re pretty much still there to, I mean, to a degree. A little bit of a background.

Afghanistan and Iran don’t have a, you know, much of a positive history with one another. The Afghanis don’t look at the Iranians in a positive light. Iran may have done some unsavory things to Afghanistan.

So this is kind of a tit for tat on the part of Afghanistan. It appears that the U.S. is kind of exploiting that hatred that. Yeah.

So the U.S. also has a presence in Afghanistan. Go ahead. Yeah, I mean, they’re doing everything they can to create issues for Russia and for China.

And there was a report I read this morning that obviously with American backing, not the Houthis, but the Yemen army are moving into attacking the Houthis. Well, I know who would win that one, but it’s just another one of these covert operations that America intends to launch to try to create where the biggest, most powerful nation in the world. We are the exceptional country.

So many parts of the world are not buying into that. I mean, Trump has said, or his fellow cabinet ministers have said, we’ve got 50 countries coming to us to negotiate trade policy. Who are they? Who is not going? That’s the big question.

Who’s not going? Are the BRICS group of nations and a bunch of others. The problem is you go to negotiate, but what are you going to get? And the countries that did agree to come to the table were pretty much on side with the U.S. to begin with. So it’s not like you’re bringing any new members.

It’s very weird because I suspect that the Trump administration by now would have expected to have the Ukraine peace deal signed and delivered by now, which is a huge contingent if they did want to go to a kinetic war with Iran, right? They had to be able to, from a logistical standpoint, they had to have been able to redirect their efforts and energies and resources from Ukraine to Iran. But given the fact that that war is still hot in Ukraine, doesn’t this kind of throw a monkey wrench into the plan, so to speak? It seems like it’s delaying the war in Iran. Yes, to some extent.

But what is Trump trying to do? He’s told the Europeans, the war is basically yours. You get on with it. So whilst America continues to send military equipment, money and operatives into Ukraine, really the real support for Ukraine now must come from Europe.

That’s what Europe seemingly, stupidly wants to do. And they’ve enthusiastically taken up the mantle. You’re seeing these videos of Macron marching onward like he’s the new reincarnation of Napoleon.

You’re seeing all these news items talking about conscription and rearmament of Europe within the next five to 10 years, which is kind of funny because if you’re Putin and you’re the Russian leadership, are you just going to sit there for five to 10 years to let your opponent get stronger? Yeah, so like, are they kind of… Go ahead. The real question is, by going on an attacking policy to build up a defense army, etc., what actually are the governments hiding? They are hiding one, hidden debt. If you look at the debt structure of the UK, it’s pretty ominous.

The same applies to France, other countries. Another issue is the migrant issue. Then you’ve got the electorate getting tired, I’m being polite, tired of being governed by unelected officials in Brussels.

So the whole EU structure is under strain. Many of my friends in Europe give the EU less than five years before it breaks up. So, you know, war with Ukraine against Russia is hiding much bigger problems.

Do you think we actually get to that point? Do you think we actually get to that? I mean, if Europe is in such dire straits and they’re pretty much clinging to life on their last leg, I mean, what are the chances Europe just implodes before they can even go to war? I think the chances are very high. I think watch out second half of this year. I think that’s when the cracks will really start opening up.

Because a lot of the more optimistic tone from industry is, oh, the war in the Ukraine is ending tomorrow. Well, it’s not going to. I literally had from one German friend, an email from him, Ukraine war ends tomorrow.

I laughed. So there’s a lot of too much hope and not enough realistic attitude. What is the linchpin, so to speak, of this implosion? Is it the banks in Europe? Is it, I don’t know, the stock market, the debt? In your view, what is kind of like the first domino to fall and set up this chain reaction for the implosion of Europe? The banks.

I mean, I’m not a financial analyst, but I talked to those that are, and they say it’s actually pretty dire. I see. Well, does that risk the potential for a worldwide contagion? If the banks in Europe begin to fall, could we start seeing banks elsewhere start to fall as well? That’s what we see in two to three years time.

I mean, we’ve seen the primary correction in equity markets, but primary falls always lead to secondary corrections. And the secondary correction is always the damaging one. So where are we at now with today’s market? Where are we? Sorry, where are we at currently with today’s market? Because we had this big sell-off last Thursday, Friday, and yesterday, Monday.

Today, we’re rebounding. Is this a dead cat bounce? Is this the latest episode of the, are we going to see new highs from here? Where do you see markets going from here? I think that we’re having a dead cat bounce now. I think the markets will then retest the recent lows in maybe end of this month, early May.

Sorry, end of, I’m getting months and years all muddled up. We get a correction back to the recent lows by the, at the end of this month, and possibly into, probably into early May. Then the central banks and the governments will introduce major monetary and fiscal stimuli, which will lead to an 18 to 24-month rally.

Huge rally in equity markets, inflation. Inflation goes back to where we were in 1980, 13% in the USA. But what does that mean for long bond yields, double digits? What does double digits do to financial markets and the world economy? Crash.

So, I mean, my basic message to our friends is play the cycles. Don’t invest for the long term, because the long term, beyond three years, you’re going to be in a, basically, depression. Doesn’t this go against the Trump team’s strategy, which is to lower the 10-year? I mean, what we’re also seeing today is not just a bounce in stock prices, but a bounce in the 10-year.

So, what we see first is a fall in the 10-year. How do they refinance the debt at that level? That’s when they will finance debt. We’ll probably get 10 years down to 3%.

But don’t they need it sooner rather than later, because you’ve got this $9 trillion? Yeah. The drop in the 10-year comes quite quickly, like by the end of this year. So, you think they will be able to bring the 10-year substantially down to roll over that $9 trillion debt? Yes.

But what follows will be the inflation we take off, particularly if there is an attack on Iran. And that means, obviously, spiking oil prices and most likely spiking the precious metals prices as well, no? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But, you know, the world is going to be in recession, in our view, probably until the early months of next year.

The markets will bottom before then. So, we’ve got the equity markets bottoming probably in the third quarter. Gotcha.

So, that’s not too far away. We’re in the second quarter now. No.

But then, as I said before, it’s the second fall that is the damaging one, which will take us back to $4,200. So, it’s probably seven and a half in by early 2027. And just for reference, we’re at $52.55 right now on the S&P.

So, that would be what? Another 20-some-odd percentage haircut from here? We will go back end of this month, early May, into the lows that we saw last week. And then we have the big recovery. Especially after you start seeing some of these trade deals being made, I presume, right? Like with Japan and India and all these other countries that are now coming to the table.

Granted, they were partners with the U.S. beforehand, but now a lot of these trade imbalances, at least in the minds of… Yeah, but hold on a moment. As soon as Trump announced his tariff policies, three bad bedfellows got together to start the process of establishing a free trade zone between them. Those bedfellows, Japan, South Korea, and China, who have not been good bedfellows, yet they’ve come together.

Why? Because the future growth, whichever way you cut the cake, is not going to be in America. It’s going to continue to be in Asia. Yeah, I believe it was Jim Rogers that said something along the lines of investing and being in Asia right now is equivalent to being in the United States in the 1920s, I believe, and equivalent to being in the UK in the 1800s.

So basically implying that better days are ahead for that part of the world. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.

Well, what do you make of… Let’s go ahead and talk about gold right now. Gold is held up fairly resiliently amidst the corrections that we’ve seen over the last few days here. I mean, doesn’t this… What does this mean for you? What’s going on here with gold? Very good question.

I think there are conflicting forces. The first one, I think gold is short-term overbought. Secondly, these high prices are a destructive influence on jewelry, which is the next.

If you are a big buyer, you would like a correction. And I think that America remains a big buyer. So we have a nice correction in the gold price over the next maybe six months down to $2,500.

And then we see the next leg of the bull market, which will probably take us close to $5,000 in 2028. But I think that when I can remember, God, it must be about a decade ago, that based on something, a word that suddenly dropped into my ear, he said, long-term, Simon, they’re going to be $2. It’s going to be a dollar for domestic use only backed by gold.

The offshore dollar will be allowed to find its own price level. So maybe what we are seeing is, first of all, I think Scott Besant would not be lying when he says that the gold is still in Fort Knox. I think what happened is that a lot of it, if not all of it, was leased out or hypothecated.

That’s why you’ve seen such panic buying to cover those shorts. But I think the next leg is to take America’s gold reserves from $8,000 to over $10,000. The ultimate objective may be, I was right 10 years ago, of creating a domestic dollar based on gold.

And what we also probably at some stage will see is that the Treasury will revalue gold to something closer to what the market is saying. Whether that’s going to be this year or next year, or when the gold price goes much higher, it remains to be seen. So our advice is, if your gold is leveraged, de-leveraged, wait for the price to come back to $2,500 or around $2,500, then buy again.

$2,500? $2,500. You think it’ll come back down to that level? Yep. Over the next six months.

Interesting. And you think it’s simply because it’s overbought? Overbought. These prices are destroying jewelry demand, which is big.

And if you are a big buyer, you will encourage a correction. So we go back down to $2,500. And then over the course of the next year, two years… Well, over the next… 2028, very close to $5,000.

Very close to $5,000. Gotcha. Doubling in the price, more or less.

Yeah. All right. I think we’ve covered pretty much everything.

Oh, one more thing to add on to your point of who the gold at Fort Knox actually belongs to. You had this news story come up recently about Germany wanting their gold that they’ve leased out to the United States back to the tune of $120-some-odd billion. So what’s going on here? Well, I think it’s a Trump bargaining point.

You don’t fall in line, you’re not going to get your gold. Yeah. They’re just going to keep the gold.

America keeps the gold. And Lord knows Germany does need that money. It does need that gold.

Well, probably does, actually. Yeah. It’s got a lot of financing to do.

Mm-hmm. And with the new parliament, they’re not going to have an easy ride. I mean, what is the risk? I mean, are we on the cusp of seeing a revolution in Europe? Because say what you will about the politicians there, but arresting Marine Le Pen, arresting the Georgescu guy, the Romanian candidate there as well, it seems like they’re creating all the conditions for like a… As I said before, I think that’s what we’re going to see.

The electorates are demanding change. And you go throughout history in France, it’s always the peasants or modern day terminology, the farmers who lead revolutions. Yeah.

And the farmers revolted last year. And it’s always a reaction. It’s always a reaction to something.

So they’re essentially creating the environment for revolution. Like revolution doesn’t just happen in a vacuum, there has to be something to react to. And they’re making the conditions.

Well, they’re reacting to Brussels, unelected officials telling farmers how they should farm. I mean, come on. Definitely.

Well, hey, Simon, it’s always a pleasure having you on and hearing your insights. Always a treasure trove of information. Anything else you want to talk about before we sign off here? No, I think we’ve covered everything.

Until next time, when more changes will have taken place. Yeah, who knows what we’ll be talking about next month. But go ahead and tell us where people can find you if they want to hear and see more.

Yeah. Simon-hunt.com. Okay. Simple enough.

We’ll have that down in the description box down below, as well as the pinned comment. So be sure to check it out, guys. It’s Simon-hunt.com. Simon, thank you so much for coming on, my friend.

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Thanks for watching. Bye.