Why Banks & The American Dream Are Failing In 2025 (Uncut) 03-29-2025

Why Banks & The American Dream Are Failing In 2025 l Todd Horwitz

The fiat currency system is the most manipulated criminal system in the world, because none of the currencies have any backing. They’re all backed by the central banking system, and central banks have screwed England since the 1600s. The only thing that’s going to help this country is when they get back the drill baby drill and get the price of oil back down into the 40s, because 80% of everything in this country relates directly to fossil fuel.

And if they can get that price down, you could then see inflation come down, and actually the average American have some money in their pocket, because they weren’t spending so much. Inflation is nowhere near 2.8%. He’s a brilliant, brilliant guy. I really enjoy my conversations with him, and we’ll have lots to chew through here.

Of course, he’s a trader, so we’ll talk a bit about market momentum. What are the charts telling us, and where does he see things heading? Last time we spoke, he predicted a 2008-style crash. Question is, are we already in it? Are we seeing this? Is this just a correction in the S&P 500, or is there more to it? What is gold telling us? What’s the US dollar predicting? Lots and lots of questions, and we’ll run through this rather quickly with him, as we always do.

Looking forward to this. Before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously, bring in phenomenal guests like Todd on the program.

So thank you so much for doing that. And now, Baba, it’s great to have you on the program again. It’s good to see you.

How are you? Kai, always great to be on with you. I’m looking forward to a good conversation. Absolutely.

Same here. They’re always a pleasure. They’re always fast-paced as well, so we’re just fast, fast-paced, hard-hitting, of course.

Todd, let’s start right at the top here. We have to frame the conversation a little bit. How do you see the economy doing right now? What’s the state of the financial markets? I think the economy sucks.

I mean, I think that if you’re a middle class, if you’re making under $200,000 a year, you’re in a recession. I think that people are struggling to get by. You see the price of eggs, the price of beef, interest rates.

I mean, inflation is soaring higher. Interest rates aren’t high enough to slow down things. And you’ve got a Fed that has totally lost their mind at what they’re trying to do here.

But again, remember that the markets and the economy don’t necessarily have to go in the same direction at the same time. And the markets are still, although I think this is the start of the next big collapse, I don’t think we’re there yet. I think there’s a lot of things going on.

I think there’s some work to do in the market, but I would certainly think that we will see that 2008 collapse this year at some point. I think the banks are overleveraged. I think they’re in trouble.

I think the debt is resetting. And I think that Americans at least have never been in this much credit card debt. Again, the numbers are unimportant because again, with inflation and where we are, you go from one year to the next.

When I started trading, the Dow was 800. So now it’s 40,000. But the amount that they’re in debt, the amount of people that are at the max limit paying the minimum payment has never been this high.

And that will tell you why markets are slow, why volumes are light, and why there’s a lot more trouble coming before it gets better. Yeah, just a fun fact. I saw that on X pop up sometime today is 62% of Americans can only afford a $2,000 emergency per se.

That’s apparently the highest it’s ever been. So it’s telling you something. People are hurting and you brought up credit card debt, but there are other sectors as well, mortgage rates, but also auto loans, the delinquencies are extremely high as well.

Is that a sector you look at, by the way? Well, I mean, I look at all those and I think you just have to recognize that this is the same symptoms we watched in 2008. That’s when they started the 0% financing that it really wasn’t. But listen, they have a way of trapping people into debt.

And because the banks and the backers don’t need all the lenders to pay back the money, they still make a profit if 50% of them pay back. Their problem is going to be that probably only 20% will be able to pay them back when this is all said and done. And because they’re so dramatically over leveraged, when the bank lends money, if people are not familiar with in fractional banking, they can lend 10 times out what they have on deposits, supposedly.

Now we know they do more. We know there’s some funny business there because when they borrow from the Federal Reserve, they take that liability as you and I would take it and they turn it into an asset and then they lend out 10 times. So they’re actually printing dollars at the same time.

It’s a very bad form. It’s a very bad system. And of course, that’s why I’ve been a big believer of at least auditing the Fed or at least ending the Fed would be my choice.

But again, I don’t think that’s going to happen. But I’d love to see a true audit because the things that they do are moronic in nature and they have no clue at how the actual everyday American and how free markets really work. Yeah, let’s get back to that in a second.

I just want to stay on the auto loan topic for a second because just last night, President Trump came out and said, well, auto loans on or interest on auto loans on American made cars should be tax deductible. How do you put that into context to what we just discussed? Is that just QE? Is that cash for clunkers 2.0? How do we frame this? Well, I mean, I think I think it should be deductible. Listen, you know, we didn’t always pay income tax and we certainly didn’t always pay the rate we pay now.

And I do think that there’s a lot of things that should be deductible because it will create new business. It’ll create an economy that will work. You know, you take away these deductions.

You know, you have to do something with the tax code. That’s what we’re really talking about. And if you don’t if you don’t fix it or at least give people the reason to go out and buy, you know, I might go out and buy a new car and finance it if I knew the payment was deductible, at least a portion up.

Those are big things that come down because, of course, not only do you pay taxes on it, but now you have to you get no deductions or you’re paying interest with no deductions. It goes back to when they took off the Homestead Act and they allowed only X amount of deduction for your mortgage payments. I mean, there’s a whole bunch of things that should be done that they’ve taken away, which really what does that do? It takes away from the economy.

It takes away from spending. It takes away from a lot of things that middle-class Americans can do. Isn’t that just another form of subsidies, though, Bubba? Self-pity? No, self-pity as well, probably, but no subsidies.

I think that the government charges too much taxes to begin with. You know, again, you look at this country and you can break it down state by state. The states that are always driving, Texas, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, what do they all have in common? They don’t charge a state income tax.

That’s why I live in Nevada, because I save 13 percent a year on my income. I basically got a free house in Nevada because the amount of taxes I saved from moving from Illinois. And why is it that California, New York, Illinois, and Connecticut are always busted and want to raise your taxes? If you live in California, New York, you’re paying about 60 percent of your income between state, federal, and city taxes.

It doesn’t make sense. That is not a subsidy. The politicians are robbing the citizens blind with all these tax structures and are giving our money to Ukraine.

They’re giving our money to everybody but the people here. It’s about time they cut down the tax rate. It’s about time they cut down and let us have our deductions and take care of Americans, not take care of the rest of the world.

No, I agree. And I’m sitting in Germany, so I’m at the short end of the stick here, obviously. But I’m pragmatic.

I do get it. The world has changed 80 years later. I think it’s time to look at things a little differently.

So I agree on that front. I wish the Fed would do that, because the Fed’s been doing the same thing they’ve been doing since 1913. It’s 112 years and they’re still running the same model.

You can compare it to the Ford Model T. It came out the same year. Look at cars now and look at the Fed. More valuable, though, that Model T now than the Fed, at least, perhaps, right? But let’s stay on the Fed, though.

We have to address them. We had a Fed conference or FOMC meeting just last week, so not too long ago. I think we’re still allowed to talk about it.

You said interest rates are still too high. Where should they be? I think they’re too low. Oh, too low.

Sorry. Yes. I didn’t catch that earlier.

Sorry. That’s okay. Too low.

Where do you think they should be and why should they be higher, for example? Well, I think the tenure should be about 6%, okay? Because let’s face it, most people… Well, first, let’s go to the beginning so everybody understands. The Fed funds rate is what the banks borrow from the Federal Reserve at. The banks then take that money and they lend it out to the people.

They make money on the spread between what they borrow from and what they lend it out at, okay? Well, they’re lending it out at a lot higher than what the 10-year notes are telling us are. And again, if you take in the peer-to-peer lenders, the Prospers, the Cabbage, all those guys, they’re getting 14%, 15%, 16% for money. So, the free market would tell you that rates are too low.

The free market would tell you that people are paying more anyways and it’s more of a mirage that rates are really low because rates are not low and mortgage rates are already 7% or 8%, especially like you’re in Nevada. Mortgage rates are set. You have to qualify for a 7.5% mortgage.

Now, that is still relatively low compared to what I paid for my first mortgage, which was 15%. Yeah, that’s 15%. That’s increasingly high.

But talking about that as well, like the auto industry is really fascinating. I had a couple of conversations about it. That’s why I keep coming back to it.

But 15% APR, it seems like there’s a lot of default risk priced in. Is that priced in in the mortgage rate these days as well? Because it is trending higher than the Fed funds rate right now as well. Is there enough risk premium in it to maybe cushion a bit? I don’t think they have enough yet.

They may have enough now. But what you’re seeing now, for example, is some builders, I think, are sensing that there’s problems coming. Now, for example, I could pay for a house myself, but I just bought a new house.

Why did I buy the new house? Because they gave me a finance deal, 2.5% for year one, 3.5% for year two, and I lock in at 4.5% forever. So, I’d be a fool not to take that deal when everybody else is paying 7.5% if I go out and buy a house. So, again, I think that the housing industry is telling us there’s trouble.

I think they don’t have enough premium because they have too many bad loans. And the packaging of what they did in 08 is no longer being done because it’s being much more scrutinized now than it was back then. But there are other problems that they created.

And one of the biggest problems was created when the Fed allowed banks to go past that 10 to 1 lending rate back during COVID. All those loans are coming and get ready to reset right now. And then we’ll really see if there’s a problem.

I mean, I really do not believe that the banks could pass a true stress test. If we sent in forensic accountants, I would venture to say we’d find that these banks are in trouble and way over leveraged. I was going to say last time you mentioned that in our conversations, again, that the banks will start to crumble and start to fail, the zombie banks, you called them.

Are you seeing more specific signs there or has that somewhat muted? Well, the regional banks have gotten into a lot of trouble already. That we’ve already seen. And I think the bigger banks are going to start to recognize that trouble.

Remember, they get helped out much more by the Federal Reserve. They get helped out and caught behind before the real problems get. You know, we go back to 2008.

Again, I hate to keep referencing it, but in 2008, September of 2008, Paulson went on Face the Nation and said, the banks are fine. A month later, they weren’t so fine anymore. OK, this is the same thing.

They continue to try to convince you that everything is fine so that you continue to spend, you continue to borrow, so they can hope they can kind of borrow their way out of debt. OK, the real issue is, is that’s not going to happen. It has never worked.

It’s not going to work this time. And this is all due to the Federal Reserve and trying to bring interest rates down in a market that we have no business bringing rates down because inflation is still going through the roof. Yeah, I know we touch on inflation.

I just want to stay on the banks for a second because I’m trying to figure out we’ve started installing like things like Basel regulations, Basel 1, 2 and 3 here. Do you think that wasn’t enough to support the banks here? Do you think that just the regulation was what do you call it, putting lipstick on a pig? I don’t know. I think that’s a pretty good explanation.

Again, I don’t think that we really get the proper scrutinization of what banks actually do. And I think that, you know, again, you think about this for a minute. What other business could you make billions of dollars? OK, and then if you go out of business, the Federal Reserve bails you out, which really isn’t the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve is the American taxpayer that gets to bail you out. What other business can you have there? If you go out of business, are they going to come and bail you out and give you some money and say you’re too big to fail? No, they’re not. And again, this is the issue that we constantly deal with and that has allowed the big banks to get bigger.

It’s wiped out a lot of the smaller banks. So we’re wiping out competition, which, again, then destroys borrowing rates and lending rates because now there’s fewer people in control. There’s fewer pieces of the pie.

And so they can be more. I’m not going to say collusion, but more collusionary when it comes to it, because they can force rates to stay higher because they don’t compete that hard against one another. If you were a betting man, and I know you look at the NCAA in the basketball tournament that’s going on right now, where would you put your dollars, like credit card defaults, student loan defaults, car loan defaults? What will topple the financial system this time? Well, I think that housing will be the start of it again and cars.

I think housing first, because I do believe that there’s a lot of default and a lot of the mortgages are ready or starting to. I think that when some of those loans reset, that same old game they played, you get a lower rate to start with and it goes to Pluto. Autos, I think, again, is another part of it.

But it’s the overall lending space. But I would start with the housing market because I think that there’s a lot of issues there and there’s a lot of new construction going on that you’re seeing less and less building going on, but a lot of sites that have already started. And let’s see if we end up in the same mess that we ended up before.

We have all these unfinished developments because the builders went broke, couldn’t afford to continue to build. Using you as an example, 2.5% for the first year, 3.5% second year, 4.5% forever. Isn’t that just kicking the can down the road? And wouldn’t they be offering that to others as well, just sort of prolong the suffering and maybe not cause a crash in the housing market this time? They might try.

But again, what you got to remember is that they can’t afford to do that. When they were trying to close some homes, they were making some deals and they might have been trying to get ahead of the curve. But even at those rates, the average consumer doesn’t have the money for the down payment.

They don’t have the money to get there and they don’t have the funding behind them. So again, you have to be able to at least come up with a down payment to get a deal. And if you can’t, who’s going to underwrite the mortgage? That’s one of the things we always have to look at, because there are people that are going to underwrite it.

And they’ve made a lot of exceptions in the past, but once the trouble starts, it’s always the same thing. The trouble will start with the banks and they’ll start looking to call on some loans. It’s the same thing they do with farmers, Guy.

Farmers borrow a tremendous amount of money from the banks. They pay about two to three percent more than anybody else over because it’s considered risk capital. But what happens when the crops look bad? The banks start their forced liquidation.

That’s their first step. And that’s what I think you’ll start to see happening. They’ll start forcing people out.

They’ll start looking to move things. And I think that they’re going to fail because I don’t think there’s enough capital around in the people that they’re dealing with. Listen, the wealthy love these times because they get to capitalize on the misery of others.

And I think when you watch this, you’re going to see that these houses, they can give them away for free. People can’t afford the insurance. They can’t afford the rest that goes with it.

There’s a lot more of expense than just the mortgage rate on your house. Todd, I’m enjoying this. And I’m going to challenge you just a little bit more here on this topic, because like in Germany, where I live, 52.4 percent live in, and that’s the highest rate, by the way, in rented apartments or in rented housing accommodation.

Did you see a structural change coming up where the American dream is maybe not owning a home anymore, but owning a condo or so instead? Might there be a structural change coming up in the U.S.? Again, I have to ask you the question, why would you want to own a rent if you could potentially afford to own, because then you have control over your own residence? You know, I get that argument. I love this, by the way. Sorry, this is quite interactive today.

But the fun fact that I shared earlier today, 62 percent can only afford a $2,000 emergency right now. So down payments are not an option for many. I mean, renting is way up.

When you have, when you force everybody to rent because they can’t afford the down payment, what happens to rents? Ask BlackRock how much money they’re making right now with all the property that they own. Because they sucked all this property, all this rental property, and they’re just making a fortune because of the monster rents that people have to pay. So again, I go back and say your first expense, I mean, this goes back to basic time and value of money, is that your first expense should be pay off your credit cards before you invest, before you do anything.

You should have no credit card debt because the interest rate you’re paying on the credit card, you’ll never make that much money investing. Then you got to go and find a home and build a home because most people don’t know how to save their money. Let’s be honest.

Most people end up at 65, 66, 67 years old, and they’re working at Walmart and pushing shopping carts because they couldn’t save enough of their IRA. But the nice about owning your own home, at least you’re building equity. No, you’re not making a great return on the home.

Because again, if you did the math and you could invest it properly, you’d make more investing. But it is like a forced savings because you do build equity. And it does give you access to emergency cash if you need it through a line of credit through your house or whatever.

So again, I think that we look at this in a backwards way. And when too many people are renting, all that’s really happening is rents are going higher because people can’t afford it. They do have to have a place to live.

That’s how we end up with so many homeless in this country because they can’t afford the rent. They can’t afford a house. What do they do? They live in the street.

No, it’s an interesting discussion. I appreciate you humoring me and going on this excursion here with me, Todd. Hey, what do you want, guy brother? We’re good.

This is fun. This is fun. I’m enjoying it.

But we have to talk inflation now. You mentioned inflation will be ticking higher. Personally, I was very surprised to see the February number dip below the January number, only 2.8%. Those are the official numbers that I have to go by, not the felt inflation or paying a dollar for one egg, right? Where’s inflation headed? Let me first ask you a question.

We know the numbers that are reported. Do you, Kai Hoffman, believe those numbers? No. I don’t know if I can say BS on here, but I call BS.

Inflation added 10 to that, so it’s 12.8%, and we’re still higher than that. Look at the price of food. Look at what happened to the grocery store.

The only thing that’s going to bring inflation down is not the morons at the Fed trying to manipulate and play with interest rates, not the fiat currency system that is totally cartel-based. The only thing that’s going to help this country is when they get back to drill baby drill and get the price of oil back down into the 40s because 80% of everything in this country relates directly to fossil fuel, from the manufacturing of some products to the delivery of other products. If they can get that price down, you can then see inflation come down and actually the average American have some money in their pocket because they weren’t spending so much for heating, for gas, for their products they buy at the store.

Inflation is nowhere near 2.8%. That is a stupid number to come out. It’s kind of like the jobs number, though. That’s all garbage as well.

I love this. I’m going to take this in another interesting direction. From my perspective, from Germany, your gas is half the price.

Depending on where you are in the States, California is more expensive, but some places the gallon is like $2.70. I looked it up last week, between $2.70 and about $3.20 is sort of the lowest range I’ve been seeing. I get the case for lower energy costs. The question is, though, in a global comparison, how much lower should it go to make a meaningful impact? $2.70 a gallon, in my opinion, and that’s, again, the European perspective where we pay twice as much.

You get a lot more benefits in there, too. That’s true. The point is, where is cheap? What is cheap for you? Let’s say even 10-year average, $2.70 is still a very cheap rate for a gallon.

A lot of times, in Texas, gas was under $2. Even in Nevada, gas is high because we have no pipeline. We have to truck it in, so we have to pay for that.

We get the pleasure of paying for that. I believe that you can get gas down to $2.20. Again, it depends on who you are. I don’t drive all that much.

I drive the 10 miles of the golf course or the casino. That’s about my driving. I fill up about once every two weeks.

For the average guy who’s out, got to be in his car driving, you knock gas down to $2 or $2.20, and all of a sudden, they’re putting an extra $50 a week in their pocket. That doesn’t count, the amount of plastics. Water bottles take oil to make.

Delivery from the trucks to the store takes money. Everybody adds on their surcharges or whatever it is because of the money and because of the price. If they bring all that down to everybody, it’s going to bring down the prices of everything that we do.

It puts us in a better, stronger position. I think that’s why we need to see energy come down. Again, energy is 80% of our economy.

I don’t believe in the Green Environment Bill. I don’t buy into climate change. I think that climate change is a way to tax people and to create governments to steal money.

That’s what I think of climate change. If you do really believe in climate change, then we shouldn’t be dealing with electric. We shouldn’t be dealing with solar or wind.

Go to nuclear power. Just because of Three Mile Island, we have a problem. Nuclear is the way to go.

If you really want green energy, go to nuclear power. I agree. I absolutely agree.

I had a question that escaped my mind, but let’s move on. Let’s talk U.S. dollar real quick. Where do you see the U.S. dollar headed? $1.04 right now on the Dixie roughly.

Is that good? Is that bad? What’s it telling you? Where do you think it’s headed? I think the dollar should go higher, but I do think that one of the things we continue to hear about the tariffs, right? That’s the new buzzword now, April 2nd, tariffs. A, I think tariffs are good. I’m a big fan.

I think that Trump’s using them very well into negotiating certain deals. But let’s say that there’s tariffs. Well, the dollar’s dropped from $1.08 to $1.04. That more than encompasses the cost of any tariff that was put on.

So it’s basically a zero-sum game. I don’t get it. I think the dollar should be stronger.

It’s certainly higher than it was. But again, it’s usually going to fluctuate somewhere between $0.90 and $1.10. And we’re somewhere mid-range right now. And I don’t think, I think it’s, unfortunately, until they decide to put a backing against it again.

And there’s a lot of rumor about that, that we could go back to the gold standard, or even they’re talking about Bitcoin as a backing of the U.S. dollar. Until you back these currencies with something other than air and central banks, they’re really worthless. All they are is paper.

And they really, all they are is a system of exchanging paper for paper. But are they, is it real? No. I mean, the fiat currency system is the most manipulated criminal system in the world because none of the currencies have any backing.

They’re all, they’re all backed by the central banking system. And central banks have screwed England since the 1600s. So, you know, that’s where we are.

Back my currency with something that has value instead of nothing and the full faith and credit of the government that just prints more money and makes my dollar worth less. I’m interviewing Judy Shelton, I believe, on April 10th. So that should be interesting because she was talking about a 50-year gold-backed bond.

That’ll be an interesting conversation to have with her on that topic. Talking about bonds, actually, you know, the root of all evil, some people call it, the bond market. What do you make of it? Four point, what is it, 4.3 roughly for the 10-year? A bit undecided, it almost seems like.

The bond market doesn’t really know what it wants to do, it seems. One day it’s 4.10, the next it’s 4.30. It’s been highs up at 4.8 already. Where do you see it headed? I think I see it headed to 6%.

I mean, I don’t know if it’ll be this year, but I do think it is a good chance. I think that a lot of this stuff is going to collapse and interest rates are going to have to be higher. And I think that we do see a 6%.

You’re already seeing it in a lot of the CDs that are being offered right now. I mean, there’s even, you know, I mean, I’ve got some of my money in CDs at five and a quarter. OK.

And, you know, of course, the 10-year is going to want to compete with that as well. Right. They want the money.

So I think that you’re going to see higher interest rates. Again, all that’s keeping them right now is the hopes and dreams that the Federal Reserve is going to make some more cuts. But everybody forgets that that’s really not a cut to the bond market or to us.

It’s only a cut of the lending rate to the other banks. So I think that you’re going to see interest rates run higher. And if the Fed would step away and let the free market trade, you would see 6% in a heartbeat because there is a demand for money, but not everybody can get it at the rates that they think they should be getting it at.

Yeah. Higher interest rates. What should drive that higher? Of course, inflation is a factor.

Unemployment seems to be steady right now. Just just today, I saw a number that new jobless claims was like a thousand below expectations. So what? Potato, potato doesn’t really matter.

If you believe the numbers they report. Yes. But look at the amount of homeless around the street.

And the real problem is, Kai, is there’s many different forms of unemployment that you can look at. You know, there’s the U3, which is what they use, which you fix, which counts people that are actually giving up. The number of people that continue to give up looking for jobs continues to rise, but that doesn’t show up in the U3.

It only shows up in the U6, but they don’t show that. So that’s again, there’s there’s always a story. And we know that government as a rule is going to tend to report things in their favor.

Now we’re going to see how it works under President Trump now. And again, as I’ve said before, I’m glad he’s in office. I think he’ll do a great job, but he can’t fix everything that all the damage that’s been done in a short period of time.

And a lot of these numbers that are coming out are still based on what was happening during the Biden administration. But there’s going to be some pain before we can see prosperity again. Terrorists haven’t really trickled through yet.

Maybe follow up question to the whole conversation here. When do you expect them to hit? April 2nd is another date. We’ll see what happens when it comes and goes, of course.

Will tariffs push bonds and the Fed interest rate higher? I don’t know if the Fed will go higher. I think it’ll push bonds higher. I think again, I think the demand for money, you know, if you let the bond market trade freely, the demand would push them higher.

And of course, the bond futures have been going lower and they’re down again today, which is pushing rates higher once again. I think that, again, we have to allow the free market to trade. And if we allow that, then you would see the correct pricing because asset classes will price themselves.

Right. You know, you sell your house, you’re offering it for X. Somebody offers you Y. You’ll usually meet somewhere in the middle. That is called price discovery.

Unfortunately, the new Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve that was actually built by Alan Greenspan, so we go back to 1980, has been not a true free market. That is that has been the problem in the interest rate market over the years and has really allowed that was the big benefactors are the people that have money that we can borrow. I mean, a guy like me that I could pay for my house, but why I can make more than what I borrowed.

So why wouldn’t I take the money and use it, which is a big problem that they don’t count for. And those are the issues that I think and I wish they would just allow free markets to trade. I think that’s why you’re seeing a lack of volume in the regular markets right now, because nobody can really afford to trade and they’re really not letting it letting them trade freely.

And I think those are the bigger issues. Yeah, bond vigilantes came to mind when I asked you that question because they can force the Fed’s hand for higher interest rates. That’s why I threw that into the same question.

That was sort of what I was thinking about. You just phrased the next question for me. Asset price assets are pricing themselves.

Gold marked a new all time high as we’re speaking. Is gold pricing itself? And B, is it finally a free market? I don’t know that it’s still a free market yet. I think that right now you’ve caught some shorts.

You’ve got some people that are buying gold. I think you now have the to me, this looks like the final case for a while. The last of the shorts are trying to get out now because they’re now afraid that it could go to four thousand and higher.

You know, again, I said, look, I love gold. I think gold is a great asset to own, along with silver and platinum. But we’re talking about gold.

I think that gold is a little bit overbought in here. And I would expect to pull back with an opportunity to buy. But remember, gold is telling you that inflation is going higher.

Gold is telling you possibly that when you go back to a goldback security or a goldback bond, then that would also create the demand. And the other thing is that, you know, people are starting to buy gold because they’re afraid, because there’s other issues going on. And because at some point, if the world continues the way it’s going, you may need gold as a real currency again, as actually we go back into the eighteen hundreds when you would carry a little pouch with the gold and silver.

Phenomenal. Bubba, last we spoke, gold was about twenty three, twenty four hundred, maybe even a little higher. Twenty five also almost.

We’re at thirty fifty five. It’s unbelievable. So the trend is our friend here.

But I tend to agree. I think it feels a bit overbought. I’ve mentioned in other conversations and again, basing purely on gut feeling, I haven’t looked at volumes or anything.

It feels a bit like the Crypto Reserve announcement. A lot of mainstream media looking at gold, Elon Musk, Joe Rogan and others talking about it. Is that the case? Maybe just to sort of summarize what you said earlier.

I think so. Again, it’s like when the gold starts popping up, you know, the top center, right? I mean, I said I think last time we talked, I said I thought this year we could trade as high as thirty three hundred. I still believe we’ll get there this year, but I do believe and listen, I give you my position.

OK, I own physical, so we won’t count that because I’m never selling. OK, but from a trading standpoint, I’m short gold right now. OK, and I will sell more.

I’m not afraid to sell more because I’ve seen enough markets to know that they’re extremely overbought. And when the last buyer is in, I think we’re going back. I would say by the time you and I talk again next, gold will have traded twenty seven fifty.

I can’t disagree with that. I’m a gold bull. I get it.

The gold thesis, easy to understand. Everything’s in our favor. But I tend to agree.

I’m not sure. Twenty seven fifty. I’m not a technical analyst.

I’m not a trader. But I tend to agree that we’re over overhyped and overbought a little bit. So it’ll probably get me a lot of hate in the comments down below.

Remember this. If we’re right, it gives you a better opportunity to buy at a lower price. And anything is buying physical gold now to sell it tomorrow.

You shouldn’t be buying. OK, that’s the point. If you’re truly want to own gold, you shouldn’t buy paper gold because I don’t think there’s enough gold in the world to cover the amount of paper that’s written on it.

You really want to be a gold owner. Buy it. Put it in a safe.

Hold on to it. Don’t worry about the day to day fluctuations, because 10 years from now, it’ll be probably double what it is today. Absolutely.

Baba, what a wonderful conversation. Really, really appreciate your time. Where can we send our audience? Where can we find more of your work, Baba? BabaTrading.com. You can send them there.

And I don’t know if I’ve ever done this with you before, Kai, but I’ve written two books on options. And if anybody wants them, they can have a copy for free. I’ll email you a PDF file of the two books I’ve written on options.

And all you have to do is email me at Baba at BabaTrading.com, and I will send you the book immediately out. And you’ll have a weekly options manual and a guide to trading options in general. Fantastic.

That’s awfully kind. Thank you so much for offering that. And we’ll have to chat again the latest in six months.

So we got to do this more regularly. I love our conversations. They’re fun.

They’re fast paced and hard hitting. So really appreciate that. Baba, thank you so much for your time.

And stay on for a second and everybody else. Thank you so much for tuning in. Really appreciate you watching.

If you haven’t done so, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously, getting guests like Todd Baba Horowitz on more regularly. Really appreciate you.

Thank you so much. Put some comments down below. How do you think the market will behave? Is the Fed funds rate too low or too high? I think that’s a big debate the last seven days.

Should the Fed be more hawkish or more dovish? Really curious what you think. So thank you so much for tuning in. We’ll be back with lots, lots more.

Take care.