MASSIVE Signal Found Triggering ONCE IN A GENERATION EVENT for GOLD

main point to note really I suppose is that we have broken out through a major resistance line here that goes back all the way to to 1980 and these um big breakouts when they happen in these gold bll eras that developed during the 1970s and the early 2s were kicked off by this recessionary um period shown by the green the green bars so clearly we’ve had a major breakout here and clearly there are a number of technical pieces of evidence why a recession is pretty likely um during the next let’s say few

months hey guys welcome to Capital cosm today is a special episode where we have three of my favorite ta analysts guess that’s redundant ta analyst ta chartists uh Kevin wodsworth and Patrick Kareem of Northstar bad charts finding values uh Andy anyways no hey guys thank you so for coming on thanks it’s great to be here all right well let’s just Dive Right In fellas uh markets are closed today it is President’s Day so what better time to look at the the charts when they’re not moving uh let’s kick

things off here with you Andy what are you seeing out there what is the the topof thee line news item or or what is most topical for you let’s say well I mean when I when I go out there and I look Gold’s been ripping it’s it’s going on up that’s our leader for commodity bull market so Gold’s been making new highs it’s breaking um downtrends against other asset classes uh so I think I think the commodity bull markets you know just starting it’s alive and well and and Gold’s our leader and it’s it’s

leading um other things are other sectors that I think look notable copper looks like it’s trying to break out uh it looks like platinum’s trying break out a lot of commodity sectors looking like they’re squeezing up and trying to break resistance lines and uh trend lines so I think everything’s intact I think everything looks good um the overall S&P 500 and NASDAQ they seem to continue to drift higher um at some point I’m looking for them to roll over and it just hasn’t happened yet so that’s kind of where where I’m at what

I’m looking at so I you know silver looks good too that’s ready to to rip and break out so I think everything looks good I think it’s more of just sitting there being patient waiting for these things to all kind of break out materialize in front of our face here so I think a lot of stuff looks really good any key charts you want to look at before we uh start digging into the nitty-gritty because I have something I want to show you if you don’t well go for it first and always come back and grab something yeah so this is the

NASDAQ divided by the M2 money supply and obviously what you’ll notice is we just hit the same high that we did in 2000 what do you make of that have we because just kind of put a little color on it for people watching it just me Supply is a total amount of money sloshing around into into the system obviously there was there’s way more money today than there was in 2000 so this kind of controls for the flow of money into the system uh when you when you control for the money supply relative or relative to the

NASDAQ you’ll notice that the NASDAQ is valuated at just about the same level that it was back in 2000 yeah so my my opinion on all this is that it’s just telling us where money has flowing into so money is flowing into the NASDAQ that’s where it currently resides and that more than likely the NASDAQ is overvalued in relationship to the M2 money supply given history so the the way that I view it on like a big picture view I think that money is all pushed over into Financial assets um originally it went

to bonds and stocks we had a 40-year downtrend in interest rates that ended in the total bottom was 2020 and started to break and move higher the bond market sold off in 20121 and forward it broke its uptrend to the downside money started to rotate out of the bond market it went into uh still stocks and financial assets still like the NASDAQ and S&P it started to work its way into Commodities a little bit um so when I look at all this and we look at all the ratios and all the metrics I think because of interest

rates and the 40-year decline it all got jammed into Financial assets the bond market was the first to basically sell off interest rates are going on up interest rates at some point will have an impact on the stock market it may not be immediately but usually when it goes above about 5% uh that’s when the stock market really starts to feel it and eventually I think the stock market like the NASDAQ and S&P 500 will roll over and gold does real well during that rollover so you’ll see gold start to break out against

these other asset classes and then when you see that ratio start to break out like gold breaking out against the S&P 500 breaking out against uh the NASDAQ that’s the usually the beginning of the commodity bull market and money starts to flow out of stocks and out of bonds interest rates will continue to creep higher and money will start to move into precious metals uh and other commodity sectors so that’s that’s like oil copper Platinum all those different areas uh and that’s exactly what we’re

seeing in all the charts we’re seeing these big squeezes in the corners the big squeezes of or or horizontal breakouts of copper trying to break out um we’re like right at the beginning of all of this money rotation but it looks it it’s going to be very frustrating for a lot of people because you get in the beginning of these big bull markets you get lots of volatility and a lot of sideways chop um people get frustrated with it you’re you’re trying to break through like a billion different trend

lines you get stuck all the time trying to break of all these bottoming patterns so people get frustrated and they give up and I think that’s the wrong approach or attitude um Commodities when you price it against anything else is is it’s Dirt Cheap we’re coming off the bottom and all of the quote market conditions that I look at like interest rates and stuff are all improving in a positive way for this to eventually play out over the next say decade the only tough part that I would say that I have

in the short short term is are we going to get a recession or a big pullback or something like that in the short term which is a tough read a lot of this was being held up by fiscal spending so they’re pumping money into the system fiscal you know fiscal government spending is what fiscal spending is so government spending government spending government spending and then we’ve got Elon Musk and Trump that just came in and they’re like we’re going to cut all this spending and I’m like is this is this the beginning of of

of a potential SL slow down a recession um through Unemployment through governments and and less spending it could be it could be um that’s the only difficult part is the path between where we are today and this commodity bull market is there going to be a pullback in interest rates because usually you break the big downtrend then you get a pullback in interest rates and then and then we go from there so it it’s just what does that look like is the pullback in inflationary like it’s a stagflation

type movement or uh is it more of a uh a pullback recession and things sell off that’s the only thing that I think a difficult read in here in the short term right longer term everything’s intact everything looks good right Kevin what are you seeing out there what is what is front and center for you and if you have a response to any of Andy’s comments go for it feel free to share any charts you’d like as well yeah sure okay well a picture does paint a thousand words so I’ll uh I will share a couple of charts

here um let me just share my screen with you um give me a moment to make sure I’m sharing the right screen okay just bear with me a moment Patrick give us a joke or something well yes look everything that Andy he said there it’s good good I could add some stuff like part of some evidence we’ve gathered is we have like this this concept called the CR Capital rotation event but Andy was expressing it but just in a different way but we’ve like tried to to to like brand it so it like really focus on these events where like the 1970s

where gold breaks out in the new uptrend versus SPX gold breaks out in 2000 versus SPX right and the same thing we’re waiting for that again he mentioned the NASDAQ but SPX same thing there’s always or like it doesn’t mean it has to be but there’s always been a recession exactly on the candle on the monthly candle that gold breaks out or practically on these C events it’s it’s like you almost need that that depression you need you need that that that fear or the you need the markets to anticipate that crazy amount of money

printing that’s gonna be required to save the the US equities you you kind of need that recession to to uh Kevin’s going to show you to kick that stuff off but and every single recession has the SPX drop every single one so you got you cannot have a capital rotation event without having the the the stock markets drop like even gold outperforming let’s say SPX on the way up I don’t trust it as much I want I want to see rollover so once I get that rollover like a five 10 15% rollover but the market thinks the

rollover is going to be even more than that like the Market’s going to start pricing hold on this is not a random 15% correction for the SPX that we’re going down for the count for longer for me once the market realizes that that’s that’s it it’s that’s the point of recognition that’s a capital rotation event and that’s when you buy the dips copper is probably going to break break out or copper could even break out before and if there’s that recession then it’s going to come and retest that horizontal breakout line because copper

has a great chart so it’s again how are these lock steps levers are we going to get a breakout but then a retest and then off it shoots but for me to have this true long-term Bull Run in oil this true long-term uh Bull Run in silver and even gold even if Gold’s done great it’s in a bull market for it to have a crazy bull era I’m angling right now we need a SPX drop we need a recession and that’s gonna that’s gonna crystallize that Capital rotation event yeah so I what Pat’s been talking about that I just got

the gold chart on here and uh the main point to note really I suppose is that we have broken out through a major resistance line here that goes back all the way to to 1980 and these um big breakouts when they happen in these gold bll eras that developed during the 1970s and the early 2000s were kicked off by this recessionary um period shown by the green the green bars so clearly we’ve had a major breakout here and clearly there are a number of technical pieces of evidence why a recession is pretty

likely um during the next let’s say few months and not least of that is the not you know not the least of those reasons is the yield curve inversion this is the yield curve inversion chart which we’ve looked at before and it’s the 10year yield minus the 2-year yield and each time the yield curve becomes uninverted once more you get a um a major Market event of some kind and it could be the early 990s recession with the um with the recession shown there by the the green uh column it could be the Asian

crisis the do com bust again another recession GFC subprime recession occurred a few months after the yeld curve uninverted the repo liquidity crisis and that brings us to where we are at now um we are or have uninverted um we are really staring down the barrel of a named event and uh and a recession of some type now this all ties in with um the high likelihood of a a high impact event so that’s a high likelihood of a high impact Market moving event and that is also backed up by the capital rotation evidence whereby uh gold has

put money supply into a bare Market dxy into a bare Market CPI PPI currency in circulation the equal weighted S&P the New York Composite Index the Dow Jones the welshire and the Russell are all in um bare markets versus gold okay and I’ll just pick one of those this is the Dow Jones uh versus gold and you can see it’s given four signals uh in the last 100 years the first one was in 1930 breakdown Dow Jones fell something like um 85% um or more actually versus gold and the S&P fell 85% and it took 24 years

for the S&P to recover during which time gold had to be reped 70% higher even though it was um a fixed exchange rate between gold and the US dollar it had to be rep pegged 70% higher because of the forces of the capital rotation event there the second capital rotation signal in favor of gold came in the period 1968 to 1972 when again the chart broke down the Dow Jones broke down versus gold and it fell um more than 50% in fact the SPX fell 50% and took it decade to get back to where it started gold rose 2,400 per.

uh the same thing happened in the early 2000s the S&P fell 50% twice in this period and it took 13 years to get back to where it started during which time gold doubled and then it doubled again and then it doubled again so I showed you this chart last time we spoke and it was just starting to approach the critical support level well guys it has now broken below critical support the road map continues um and we are one step closer to a major Market uh event something I want to point out just whilst it’s on my mind is that Silvera

gets mentioned a lot and you ask you’re asking um Andy there you know major sort of comments he had you know what he saw as being particularly good at the moment and I would have to say silver is it’s not the time for silver yet and it probably won’t be for at least another year and Alex explain why it’s because silver and I’ll just pop up the silver chart for you if I can uh get it on the screen here silver is Meandering its way very slowly from sort of I don’t know $15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to it’s

heading to basically it’s heading to $50 but it’s not doing it in a in a very exciting way you know it has a little move to the upside then it goes sideways for months everybody gets frustrated then it has another little move and goes side for months it it’s Meandering its way towards $50 $50 is not the target it’s the initial Target but it’s not the target all of this is one massive cup and handle pattern that has been forming since the 1970s and what we’re going to have in my view is this cup and handle

is going to be down here in the bottom left hand corner of the chart and when silver really has its time to shine it’s going to do something like this okay so whether it whether it moves to $150 $200 or or whatever number it goes to that is um not going to happen until we have the recovery because silver is a recovery metal Silver does not outperform gold before the stock market has fallen 50% so this Capital rotation event that we’re talking about this period period in time where um all of these things

roll over versus gold in and in particular the S&P and the NASDAQ once they have fallen 50% in nominal terms and the NASDAQ probably more than that then it’s during that recovery phase and and bear in mind the drop for the stock market probably takes a year to two years so and it hasn’t even started yet the stock market hasn’t even started to fall yet and that’s a critical part of the capital rotation process it’s got to drop for a year or two and then after that is when silver is highly likely to

outperform gold can I share my screen while because I have the visuals for exactly what you just said there yes you do that I’ll just share just share screen oh goodness it is uh complicated the sharing screen I don’t know what to do share screen at the very bottom Andy do you have any uh thoughts on what Kevin just shared oh there it is okay I’ll I’ll get to you in a second Andy let yeah it won’t be long this guys on the top is the gold silver ratio right everybody’s always looking for you have

gold the gold silver ratios tells you I’m a stacker I want to either hold gold or silver at all times which one should I hold so if this thing is going down you want to hold silver because silver is outperforming gold if that thing’s going up you want to hold gold instead of silver now look at this every time the gold silver ratio goes down so that’s the time to hold silver instead of gold these crazy meaningful runs where silver outperforms drastically gold they happen on the instigation of a huge Market draw down so here’s the the

Market’s going down 58% when as soon as the market bottoms and the aggregate of Market participants realize this is the bottom of course in hindsight we we’ll know this but as soon as it starts breaking out look what happens with go ratio it goes down here again the markets in the early 70s they go down 47% when they bought them and they start moving up look at the gold silver ratio bam that’s when you had that crazy run right same thing again markets go down after that at the exact bottom of a huge

27% draw down in the on the monthly close basis for SPX gold to SPX R uh gold silver ratio does the same thing the 2000s right the 90s here the 2000s the market look exactly practically at the bottom in 2003 when it started going back up that’s when silver outperforms gold this is what Kevin’s been saying look here 2008 it’s when the market bottoms that’s when you silver goes Bonkers right it doesn’t mean silver can’t go Bonkers nominally it could go up like Kevin said there it could go up uh you know um uh to to $50 but the true

endgame melt up crazy mode is after the markets break down after we had the recession and once they bought him like Kevin said it’s a recovery medal that’s when you go along silver it’s it’s it’s early now yes you could make money yes it has some higher up targets that’s fine but the true crazy moves they’re they’re not here yet guys and exactly the same thing with with Platinum if you look I said this last time we spoke Danny gold is in a bll market vir on a bull era bull era comes after the capital rotation event has

been confirmed that puts gold in a multi-year bull market versus stock markets that’s a gold bull era okay so we know that that’s the case so stop pricing things in dollars right forget about your dollar related charts forget about looking at you know stock X or stocks y stock wine dollars you know gold minor silver minor Platinum okay I’ve heard a lot of people talking about Platinum don’t price in dollars because just because platinum’s going up doesn’t mean you should be positioned in Platinum if Platinum priced in gold is

going up great if it’s broken out buy your platinum but if Platinum has not broken out versus gold above major resistance what are you doing staying gold because gold is the winner so we know gold is going to win for the next 10 years get this in your brains gold is g to win for the next 10 years if you do nothing but put your hard-earned savings in Gold you know if well if you done nothing except put it in Gold when it broke out above $22,000 and just leave it for a decade you know that it’s going

to double it’s going to double again and then it’ll probably double again and for most people that is brilliant you know you’re you’re smashing inflation you’re watching your Capital growing and you’re having to do nothing in the meantime except just sit back relax and watch it grow that’s what happens in a gold bll era and we have the evidence for that so do not then start getting distracted with Platinum Palladium Lumber lithium uranium whatever the hell is people are talking about on social media unless

it’s broken out versus gold broken out versus gold great put some of your Capital into to you know to work in that my strategy my suggestion would be keep the bulk of your your savings whatever you want to call it your nav park it in Gold don’t park it in dollars park it in Gold because we’re in a gold bull market then from that maybe have I don’t know 20 30% to play around with with trading you know whatever percentage might only be 10% depends on your you know your personality and if you want to trade

trade stuff that is in a bull market versus gold nothing else yeah perfect uh perfect analys uh segue actually into uh our our sponsors for this episode which is itm trading for all of your gold stacking needs check out my partners over there who will set up a strategy call free at cost and no obligations or commitment necessary check them out prices are really great the people are great to top top analysists and experts on the call with you at all time I have the link to that down below as well as

the phone number for all of you guys that are interested uh Andy any uh response to what either Patrick or Kevin have uh have kind of spoken about so far regarding silver do you do you share the same Viewpoint that silver is a you know Silver’s time comes after certain capital rotation event after the market kind of bottoms out well yeah so what I think drives a lot of the movements of the majority of this stuff is currency exchange rates and the value of the dollar so if I think if the dollar drops that’s where a lot of these will

take off um and then your currency exchange rates against the dollar will cause Capital to rotate out of dollar denominated assets so you’ll see emerging markets and stuff like that also go up as Commodities go up because Commodities are priced in dollars so gold is the leader of it generally gold is like a realtime accounting mechanism of we’ll call it liquidity or inflation so gold usually runs first and then the rest follow um as that liquidity Works its way through the system so what we saw in 2020 almost

real time when they printed money and came out with that stimulus gold took off very quickly in that March April time frame it just shot right up and then about you know some with some time delay behind it then you saw oil and silver and some other stuff kind of go behind it Platinum so what I think is occurring is the market condition which could be a Slowdown that’s where gold uh gets its Safe Haven asset you know name it’s these yield curve invert un inverting and and stuff like that gold generally front runs liquidity uh to

some extent because there’s Pro there could be an event coming uh and gold would be a signal signaling that but let’s just take another approach and a different strategy is what I I’ll talk about right here so let’s just say that I don’t try to time or predict the market at all let’s just say we take the the good old approach of Warren Buffett or or some of these guys so Warren Buffett and and a lot of these guys like Peter Lynch where they try to find Value they try to find a discrepancy between price and value in

ratio charts for the most part is that discrepancy between price and value compared to history taking for the most part the dollar out of it the dollar pricing so if you could you could take like a silver or platinum or oil or whatever right now and price it against gold gold is moving that’s correct and it is the better play in in the short term here for sure but from a valuation perspective against the against gold uh oil silver and platinum would be better Investments uh for the long term if

those ratios were to revert to the mean you have a larger margin of safety because gold is now well above its cost curve um Platinum is below it so if you were to take a longer kind of approach to the to the markets you could say well Platinum has historically an anomaly compared to history on the ratio front against all the other metals almost and you’ve got the largest margin of safety from a ratio perspective and also from a cost curve perspective because the largest mining companies in the world can’t make money at the price

that it is currently at so from a from a statistical probability of success you’re going to win because they they’re going to have to cut production so you’re buying it at the least risk area irrespective of what maybe a a chart will tell you I’m just talking about kind of the fundamentals behind it and it’s very well true that it hasn’t broken out of its chart yet and it it hasn’t moved so oil is the same case um and and I’m not stating that oil can’t go lower or platinum can’t go lower um what I’m stating is just from a risk

reward perspective and what the companies can do the higher cost producers in oil they can’t make money at $70 a barrel so what you’re seeing is you’ll see Energy service companies you’ll see offshore and and rigs get pulled uh which is happening right now and the ratio against gold is 40 to1 so 40 barrels of oil to 1 ounce of gold so the question then becomes if you can play oil and it becomes a waiting game in a patience game because the price of oil with time has to go higher um it can go lower in the short term it doesn’t

mean it can’t go lower but it has to go above 70 to produce more Supply is what I’ll say and if demand continues to go up and inventories continue to get depleted like they are uh then it becomes a waiting game in a Patients Game so I’m not stating that it’s that you can necessarily if you take a strategy where you take prediction or or potential outcomes like out of it like like let’s say you don’t know the future at all and then you say well how could you play that game without using any sort of predictive

function you would play it with value discrepancies and those are the spots that have the value discrepancies is what is what how I resp respond um but that doesn’t mean that it will outperform it in the short term so there’s a there’s a market component to it and Gold’s obviously broken out it looks fantastic I totally agree I think it’s the leading indicator of what’s to come behind it and I’m positioning I would position in the stuff that would be the cheapest and most potential upside that I think has a

high probability of of occurring so that’s kind of my Approach it doesn’t mean you know and there could be things that are unforeseen in the future so for instance I’ll just tell the unforeseen things um so I purchased silver from you know 2018 2020 when the ratios were really cheap I purchased Platinum when it was really cheap um 2020 uh 2019 2021 you know when it was below a certain price I kept kind of cost averaging in I don’t know what the future looks like necessarily but there could be things

that change dramatically out in the future so it’s a it’s a function of diversification to get out of the system is number one and number two I don’t know if the premiums will stay the same I don’t know if you know when an event could occur where people run at this stuff uh it’s a function of like preserving and protecting wealth and I do it across Gold Silver Platinum and all these different Metals um so I’m diversifying across and I take into consideration the valuation of the metals that I’m

getting it at and if it’s below the cost curve so I’m buying all these Metals below the cost curves and I’m just sitting in them and waiting and being out of the system to protect myself and diversify myself against the system so that’s kind of my strategy and approach I know it’s not gonna you know I know that Platinum may or may not rip immediately but it doesn’t matter because when it starts to move I don’t know what that world necessarily looks like we’re seeing in the markets with gold right now that they’re having

problems delivering it on major exchanges like the lbma and all it takes is you know our people to kind of panic and then it’s like you go you had physical metal available to you very easily and then in the future it’s like is that still going to be there at the same premium what’s going to happen there’s so many unknown on I don’t know so what I do is I say is it cheap yes is is it cheap historically on the ratios yes and then is the premiums cheap yes and then I just buy it and then I hold it uh and then in trading accounts I

have other stuff that you may trade or whatever I don’t really trade too much to be honest um I just find Value discrepancies and and and invest based off the value discrepancies that’s really my main my main goal and my main focus and that’s how I’ve made a lot of the money um like for instance in 2020 the bottom there uh we we had that huge crash there’s a lot of fear in the market and all of your value discrepancies from a ratio perspective like just peaked out like anomal total anomalies in history uh oil went

negative it’s like what the heck so I waited for it to come back up and pause and then I bought a bunch there they obviously printed money uh which was you know the stimulus money but the value discrepancy was there and you can do a bunch of fundamental analysis on stuff too so the technical look good the fundamentals look good it kind of all aligned in that that time frame so I’m I’m trying to find that alignment but I’m overweighting the the value out of it the ratio discrepancies um there’s also other

things too when you look at like really long-term big picture charts like Platinum is just it’s never been this cheap against anything now someone could say um there’s a reason for it you know there’s obviously reasons that somebody could make up a narrative or whatever but um what I’ll say is the market conditions determines that ratio uh when gold outperforms um Platinum stocks generally go up and then when that reverses stocks generally underperform uh it was a study done by um people at Yale can’t remember

their names but uh when the platinum gold ratio outperforms which I do think is coming um the stock market will underperform and that generally occurs during certain market conditions um are we transitioning from that one market condition to another I think we are in the future we’re just not there yet so it’s coming though so that’s that’s where I’ll kind of end it hopefully that answered most of the question yeah uh Patrick anything else you want to add otherwise we can move on to uh energy here in a

second no no let’s uh let’s go to energy man that’s an interesting uh interesting a chart there yeah yeah so what’s your view on the current price action of oil all right let’s do it I’ll share my screen share it share it I’ll go I’ll do it live yeah that we’re looking at Smith and Wesson right look at that thing anyways all right let’s look at let’s at oil guys let’s look at oil so th this is the uh maximize all right here is the oil chart all right so this chart guys look it’s th this line here a monthly close

below 68 bucks 68 67 like a solid close here not not good right but right now it’s it’s not good on the upside either it’s like oh it even tried to to break out here so here you have a resistance area here and you have a support so it’s coiling and you got there’s no look that could be a topping pattern it could be a continuation pattern we’re you have to wait until the market Market tells you what’s going to happen so we a bullish case would be go up here maybe retest that three-year moving average 36 month and then after that

zoom up right because it’s there’s so much damage done because it because it went down guys higher higher low higher high lower highs lower highs it’s creating a whole bunch of resistance here so for it to get out of this rut and break out to the upside we could be in 2020 in June six months later seven months later it’s crazy I said 2025 like it’s next year we’re already in 2025 what do you what do you make of the commodity index uh appearing to rip higher while oil is is doing the opposite which one the crb because or

the CR let’s do the Thompson Reuters one yeah because well you have to look at the um the crb no CBR what is it it’s TR it’s trj uh EF FCB I got it all right this one new price SC yeah well what’s the composition of that thing you have to look at the uh yeah you would have to look at the the composition of it right it’s one of the better ones where it’s not oil heavy that’s right well probably explains why it’s starting to move up there yeah that’s pretty good though actually so so what’s going on there why

why are commodity prices appearing to rise while the oil price he’s going down that seems like it’s a it’s an exception well what hold on well what’s oil telling you there if it’s not ripping higher is it telling you that it’s sensing a recession is it telling you that um like look at the recessions look what happens to oil here before the crash look at that before the recession look oil was already showing lower highs kind of what we have today and then it fell off a cliff before the whole thing

imploded right so that’s what happens here it went up during the recession but after that here it went it went crashing down here it trying to go up but then after that it failed and that’s the the the 200000 recession 911 yes 911 right here so that’s a CR right that’s when gold broke out versus SPX that’s when SPX stopped this is like this is a major major event right here so what do we what’s happening here it’s like the yield curve on inverting it’s all all these all these observations Ken and I or Andy are are saying they they

add up guys and it’s our job like we do it regularly it’s like there’s something happening here there’s not um look the crb could be going up but if oil tanks if oil tanks here what could be happening to the crb is it could just be and retest and then shoot up right it’s just going to re-shoot up from a from a higher from a higher price point right it’s gonna it could do that that could be pretty impressive if oil decides to I’m going to remove that one yeah my point is is that for for a very long

time the crb tended to be correlated with the oil price if I zoom out yes but what you got to look is I’m going to remove all indicators hold on I’m going to take my crb here check it out and remove all indicators remove all drawings then I’ll just overlay if you zoom out from these things they H hold on new price scale okay here it is remove that one so if I zoom out I the crb with oil sure they track but this is nothing a few months of Divergence it could it happened a whole bunch of places right it’s it’s they’re not locks

at these things right if I put the correlation coefficient you look here it was even trying to break out that’s pretty you also have to bear in mind that crb contains a lot of things that are doing very well at the moment like like like gold and silver for example um you know includes coffee we know what’s happened to coffee and cocoa as well so some of these commodities that have been exploding upwards are and and I think there’s another one there lean Hogs is it um I think cattle and lean Hogs have been

going um Gang Busters as well so that there’s a lot of stuff in the crb index that is doing incredibly well and in fact it’s alltime highs so that’s driving the CR crb index higher oil in isolation is is not and it doesn’t have to necessarily follow the path of of those right commodities look the correlation seriously but the correlation usually it’s high but there’s periods where the correlation well man this is a historical uh look at that the correlation there these rare low isn’t it yeah yeah very low so you

you so there will be some type of reconnect eventually statistically Something’s Gonna something’s gonna happen so they so it’s who’s gonna so either oil goes blasting up or the rest of the commodity index comes crashing down yes so imagine that okay the cor exactly that’s that’s exactly what’s happening what Kevin told you you can’t front run this stuff you got to be careful here because if you think like let’s say doge is going to start cutting unemployment and uh whatever the reducing the the the public debt all

that stuff’s recessionary right so is oils the Market’s not stupid you gotta you got to really listen to this stuff right if oil is not blasting upwards it’s telling you that something could be happening you gotta you gotta we’re a few months from this resolving like coill has to go somewhere it’s like it’s close to the Apex I don’t like something is gonna there are there are a lot of similarities with the 1970s which bear consideration because just look at the 10year bond yields they’ve risen to 5%

and they’re still hovering somewhere near four and a half percent and inflation hasn’t gone away in this in the way that a lot of people perhaps expected that it that it would so inflation is just kind of hanging there you know not going away um in the early 1970s that was you know very much the situation and oil was of course in the early ’70s about to go completely Bonkers so that that breakout of the 10-year yield that we’ve just seen a couple of years back is very analogous to what happened during the 1960s with a

10-year yield when it broke out through a very long period of downtrend so there are quite a lot of sim similarities and parallels to the to the 1970s but what Pat just said there really just wait for the oil chart to either break support or break through resistance because there’s there’s actually not much distance between the resistance and the support level on on the oil chart at the moment so it doesn’t have to move up very far or down very far before we’re going to get our answer so why why front run that

we know Commodities are going great but we don’t you know there’s there’s a little bit of a question mark over is that going to continue I mean gold is as I said gold is in the crb index gold has had a very strong run and there is an argument to suggest that if we do head into a recession you know clearly we’re likely to see some pullbacks in these things that could well be the CR event it could well be the point at which stock markets Start Tumbling and we do get a significant pullback in Precious

Metals maybe I don’t know 20% or so 15% and at that point with a a rapidly falling stock market that’s where you’re going to be exposed if you’re holding precious metals mining stocks precious metals mining stocks are going to be much more susceptible to a larger pullback than than gold and that’s you know if you look historically at the these past events oftentimes gold and silver don’t really pull back particularly severely during this you know this rollover of the stock market but you know there’s certainly times

there where the where the gold and silver miners do and do for quite a lot initially at least so you know yeah yeah what what’s going on there with the mining stocks because you’re you have a nominally high gold price uh as well as a silver price and the oil price appears to be subdued so the Delta between the input cost and the actual you know price of the metal is getting wider and wider but these stocks are and that was a problem for miners in the 1970s if you study this in the 1970s the miners did

not outperform gold uh in that massive Bull Run that gold had it biggest bull run ever in history the miners did not um outperform gold in fact the miners did particularly poorly and I suppose the reason the fundamental reason for that not that I spend a lot of time thinking about fundamentals is the is the oil the oil cost and then not just oil but labor as well so rapidly Rising labor costs labor disputes strikes um high oil prices that’s an absolute disaster for miners so that is no doubt why the miners massively underperformed

gold during the 1970s Bull Run that wasn’t quite the case in the 2000s Bull Run in that bull market for gold the miners just about kept up with gold so in the 12E period from 2000 to 2012 that entire ball run gold and the mining indices like GDX performed roughly equally there were points in time where the GDX and the miners massively outperform gold but that didn’t that didn’t persist so that by the time he got to the end of the precious bull market and precious metal bull market and gold reached its peak the miners had

given back all of that Advantage now I know there are individual exceptions and individual mining stocks will outperform all of those and do incredibly well and that’s our job to spot those but if you’re talking about the index GDX gdxj s SJ the Hui those sort of indices over the full period of the precious metals ball markets so far that in in in the big major ball markets so far they have failed to overall outperform gold which is another reason why if you’re a nervous investor and you don’t really

know what you’re doing it’s far better just to stick your money in gold and then wait until you get the evidence that the gold ball Market is is nearing its end because trying to time the getting in and getting out with the miners is even for people who have a you know a little bit of an idea what they’re doing which I would like to think I do it’s still very very difficult it’s it’s not an easy game at all you know your stop loss gets hit you know halfway to your pro to your profit limit and suddenly there’s a pull back

stop loss is hit and the gold forecast doesn’t change you’re still motoring on towards $10,000 gold but you get some uh some sort of turbulence along the way and all of your all of your trades get knocked out so you know it’s a FR miners are inherently frustrating they’re inherently fraught with risk so for that reason I personally wouldn’t put a huge proportion of my nav into them but as Andy just said from the from the value point of view at the moment there’s a big discrepancy between the price of

gold and where where miners are sitting at at the moment and that applies to right the way across the mining sector whether it’s gold miners silver miners um what you know it’s it’s a it’s a generalized um condition at the moment in the mining sector and if oil does start to Trend rapidly upwards I wouldn’t touch miners with a 10- foot pole if it does start to look like we’re replicating the 1970s forget miners just just go just go for the metal because we know what happened to the miners in the 1970s they

did not outperform gold you would be having to pick one or two very isolated diamonds amongst all of the rest of the crap that’s in there to find the ones that are really going to outperform gold and when when you know gold is going to do so well so if if oil breaks out I would be very nervous about going long the miners for any period of time um and if it starts going if oil starts going aggressively upwards then that does start to raise questions over over what the Min is are likely to to do yeah it kind of makes sense because

if you have all this upside in the metals themselves why do you need to go further out the wrist curve and get a little bit more torque to your upside yeah you could probably snag an extra a 2X multiplier or 3x multiplier if you pick the right Mining stock but at the end of the day it’s also a lot it could be a lottery ticket by but by that same token it could also be a landmine so very good points here Kevin anything else you guys want to talk about before we wrap up I think we’ve covered all the

key points I just just a quick a quick honorable mention for Uranium uh the uranium miners uh have not been outperforming gold for three years okay so anyone who’s in the uranium sector if you look at the ratio chart there it’s been three years 2020 2 2020 late 2022 2020 early 2023 I think anyway best part of three years the Uranian minus have not been out performing gold they’re stuck in a sideways to slightly downtrending pattern versus gold so another example of exiting when the targets reached

waiting for the pattern to play out and then by the breakout now you could argue that Uranian miners are undervalued or or whatever but it’s been a very long there’s a lot of opportunity cost there in being involved in the uranium miners whilst you know you could had your money sitting in gold and massively outperforming um so just you know use those ratio charts um and also one other thing to mention of course anybody who’s into crypto watching this the capital rotation event is not going to be a

friend of crypto either how dare you how dare you say that but we may have enough time we may have enough time for crypto and Bitcoin to reach those those targets first but of course they’re they’re hesitating at the moment as well just like oily is going to head into a bare Market the less said about fcoin trumpcoin and Milan amem coins the better as far as I’m concerned but hey go for it if that’s if that’s that’s anti-American you’re not allowed to say that anymore if that is your thing then

slap on an extra tariff all right guys that was a regular podcast now we’re gonna talk about conspiracy theories that’s how fun guys yeah take it away sorry Danny we might have just got your Show cancelled can I show an oil chart go ahead real quick I know you were talking energy I’m an oil guy so I’ll just I’ll just share a chart here real quick yeah sure go through all these uh tabs here hopefully it shows up yeah so just just to share my opinion on what I think oil is I think oil it consolidates has an

advanced phase consolidates it consolidates in the three-wave consolidation patterns one two three moves on up and we’ve gone through the consolidation phase is the one two three pattern there that you guys can see repeating over and over so I think what’s coming is the bottom was 2020 which was here of the bull market this is the last fractal of the last bull market from 200000 to 2008 and I think that it’s basically going to do something on the lines of that um it’s just going to repeat and go

up again now could there be a recession before this occurs have we gone through this recession already it that’s really really difficult to know that’s where I’m like I just don’t know in the short term they’re they’re selling Bonds on the on the on the short end like mad it could be distorting the curve for all I know and that’s where I’m kind of like I don’t know on that the yield curve and if it’s going to reinert it’s difficult to say but I think this is what will eventually occur and you I’ve got these

horizontal lines here so we basically trade between these horizontal lines like this guy here we established a new high broke through it established a new level I think we’re going to break through it and establish a new level up above it at some point so this is kind of the bigger bigger picture longer term view that I think is going to occur and during these time frames every single one of these Advanced phases um Gold’s been a leader and has really ripped um and I think icing on the cake here is

the interest rates going up too um you were talking about the precious metals and the miners I I’ll do a quick thing on that too um I think that money hasn’t rotated into it because the NASDAQ and crypto is still working so money’s just continuing to chase it’s a bunch of fomo people retail investors they just continue to move over there you can see it on Twitter these these people are DieHard crypto nuts I will call it maybe not nuts but they’re just DieHard crypto people and they they will attack you if you say

anything negative about their their their precious I don’t know precious zeros and ones that they’re huddling is what I’ll say it they’re not coins they’re just zeros and ones but I think this is an indicator of where we’re located in the bull market of all this stuff um intangible assets is a function of financial assets and remember when I started off that all the money is pushed into Financial assets because of the declining interest rate environment over the past 40 years this isn’t this is a

an outcome of that so crypto is an outcome the intangible asset is an outcome of people jamming their money into the intangible asset classes or financial asset classes interest rates broke up out of that 40-year downtrend and I think it’s all going to change because of that it just hasn’t changed yet uh so I think the discrepancy in the gold miners versus gold I think it’s an opportunity it hasn’t moved yet but I think if interest rates continue to move up uh we very well could see Capital rotate out of

crypto and out of the NASDAQ and all that stuff and then it will be a glorious time for those that are positioned in hard assets Commodities and the equities uh of those areas there’s one there’s one thing that I just want to say to balance the um you know I’m aware that people will be watching this who are fans of particularly Bitcoin but perhaps other cryptocurrencies as well there’s a question mark during the capital rotation event I fully expect cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin to be for want of a better phrase is crushed okay

Bitcoin regularly Falls 75 80% anyway in its bare markets we know that and other cryptocurrencies fall between 99 and 100% you know many hundreds if not thousands of crypto coins have ceased to exist so I expect a a very very severe bare market for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin when the capital rotation event occurs the one question in my mind is when the recovery comes when the stock markets have hit their bottom after a year or two and the SPX has fallen 50% and perhaps the NASDAQ has fallen let’s

say 75% what will happen to cryptos then what will how will Bitcoin let’s forget about the other cryptos because you know they’re they’re more volatile let’s just focus on bitcoin what will Bitcoin do how will it react when the stock market starts to recover because when the stock market starts to recover we know gold and silver massively outperform because it takes many many years for the stock market market to get back to where it’s started and during that period of time we’ve seen what happens in capital

rotation events gold doubles and then it doubles again and then it doubles again so we know that gold and silver will massively outperform Bitcoin what will it do will it only go back up at the same rate as the stock market and take years to get back to where it was or will Bitcoin outperform the stock market on the way up and if it does outperform the stock market on the way up will it outperform gold and silver as well and that’s one one question I’ve got yeah here here’s another question too we’ve

been talking about this Capital rotation event after a potential crash or you know something of that nature what if the crash is not nominal what if it’s only in real terms is that something on your radar screen meaning that you mean you mean versus gold rather gold or versus M2 money supply or versus C something like that not be nominal but in real terms be a crash it has to be nominal it has to about but it it has to happen in nominal value in nominal term because if it doesn’t happen nominally sorry P you go

that’s fine you go go ahead you spe Pat and I have these brainstorming sessions all the time to try and reason all of this stuff out and really it does have to be in nominal terms because if it doesn’t if you don’t get the needle shifting in nominal terms then you’re not rotating anything from anywhere to anywhere now we’re not talking about money going directly from NASDAQ into gold or from the S&P into gold it’s not quite as literal as that but you have to have a process taking place where it’s

big enough to shift the S&P and NASDAQ downwards nominally it has to move the needle at least 10 or 15% in the stock markets to cause the gold 2sx ratio to to break upwards otherwise stock markets will continue to Trend gradually upwards and will continue to go go up as the ratio will go nowhere and you have no rot you have no Capital rotation event the term rotation means that that ratio chart has to turn and move back down the S&P has to break down versus gold so that in order to get that rotation and

to move that chart you have to have the S&P and the you know the other stock market indices moving down by a significant amount in nominal terms yeah because look the fund manager doesn’t price SPX and gold he might have maybe some some out go some some metrics and stuff to to figure it out but you need something priced in dollar Mouse to to instigate the sphere this thing that’s going to rotate that they have to print the money to to save the recession it has it all starts with the SPX starting

to unwind it’s there’s nothing it’s it’s a nothing Burger until then you yes you could do ratios that one’s out performing fine but the true mindboggling uh you know when people start mentioning 10 back ERS and putting these crazy logarithmic move targets they happen after the C and this chart of oil those key moments where it it it it got whatever rated like higher there did those expansionary moves those are all CES late 1960s 1970 the late 90s 2000 and whatever is’s going to happen now all those three events are capital

rotation events with have the stock market plunging they have to print the money and then oil has to repic in that that craziness right that destruction of purchasing power oil has to reprice it because oil is the destruction of purchasing power the higher the energy cost the less your dollars worth money it’s they go hand in hand the oil chart is the fluctuations of the CPI compounded the fluctuations of the inflation rate compounded over decades right because the inflation rate it it Stacks eventually in the permanent P

purchasing power destruction and that’s the oil chart that’s all it is right I could overlay the CP the rate of the inflation rate over this the the oil chart and you’ll see the oscillations of the oil chart is that but because it compounds it it Stacks nominally right keeps going up and up because your fiat’s going down does that make sense with my fingers I hope guys you followed how I did that there thousand words so when you guys said they need to print money or whatever that money can also be created through the real estate

market through loans monetary Bank lending that’s what the 70s was driven from the 40s 50s and 60s and 70s yeah um we’re also in the middle of the demogra graphic for household formations right now in America so that’s also pushing behind the market we’re not we don’t have foreclosures like all of those recessions that we were talking about those are all real estate recessions driven by real estate all of them almost outside of 2000 this so it was in the there was a couple in the in the 70s they were driven by real estate um real

estate fell and Bank lending fell and that’s what caused those recessions so so Andy do do you agree with the Northstar boys about a nominal crash or does it have to be nominal or could it be in real terms I don’t know if it I don’t know if it has to crash I I don’t know with 100% certainty there I think what could occur is money could rotate without a crash necessarily because people have to sell this stupid CRA that they own like crypto and have to spend it on something that they absolutely need like getting to work or

energy and food so I think things could naturally rotate but generally you do get a recession because the things that people like you have a shift in the economy between it’s like there’s a misallocation of capital so technology needs to get hit and that money has to rotate over into you know oil and and and and food and whatever else that we need more production of so I don’t know if it can do that without having recession I I I don’t know it’s a tough one they might be right I don’t know but I think look look at this guys this this

is a total public debt this is the government uh you know debt look at the explosion the of course the debts always been going up right I don’t care that it’s 35 trillion it could be a billion gazillion Googles I don’t care it’s the rate of change that creates these Market reactions here at the Bott I have this distance from the six quarter moving average so it’s the yes the the debt keeps going up and up but it’s how fast is it going up and look at the the capital rotation event here the late 60s

the rate of the the distance from moving average the explosion in the in the change in the total public debt the money the government that they have to borrow to to pay for the programs to to save to bail out the banks to bail out the real estate whoever whatever that’s look higher lows higher highs that was the oil run the silver run the gold run right and as even if here the debt keeps going up and up and up look it’s not able to distance itself from its moving average as fast and look at that that

was the crazy uh 1980s to 2000 run in US stocks and look at that even each even the recessions within that downtrend were explosions in in total public debt here CR here’s a 2000 crre look at this beautiful breakout recession recession the market always drops so it happened again on that watch here recession Market drops the the explosion in debt we had here the one in the 2020 but here’s probably going to be the next one the next time we have a a recession the the the government has to go back into debt so whatever doge is

doing or whatever maybe that’s just the Chicken and the Egg H create that that that tsunami of recession right like debt the debts going away it’s the Market says uhhuh you’re you’re breaking me so people have to sell their SPX to buy real stuff that they need and then then they re explode the debt and that’s that’s when uh M Mr commodity there goes Bonkers there and starts showing his nav his net asset value on Twitter there that’s when you know those guys we start doing that right so but that hasn’t

happened yet guys it’s like something something has to instigate all this and we’re we’re we’re on the cusp of it we could be on the cusp for for the next six months a year I don’t know that that chart that’s where the charts come in handy guys you just don’t there’s no there’s zero opportunity cost with charts right you won’t catch a bottom but at least you won’t you won’t stay in a sideways huddle right okay I’m I’m gonna ask you The $64,000 Question if you if you had a gun to your head and you had to give a time frame in terms of

when this Capital rotation event happens I’m not goingon to hold you guys through this just if you had to pick a time frame as to when it occurs uh when do you think it occurs Andy I’ll start off with you and we’ll go finish things off this uh with this question well I think it already it’s already in motion it’s it it’s it’s already started I don’t think it’s apparent to everyone so I think I think the whole thing started in 2020 when they printed all that money and it pushed us and interest rates broke out

so I think I think it’s in motion it’s already started the Cycle’s already started so I’m in the camp that things are already it’s already it’s like in motion now the the the confirmation of it comes later when when everybody kind of like recognizes it sees it so I think it’s already occurring but that’s that’s me I think it started in 2020 and and that was our ultimate bottom with interest rates and everything has has has progressed forward and we’re in the cycle so think of it as we’ve done the

first wave and we’ve got a wave two pullback in the capital rotation kind of event cycle so that’s what I think gotcha Patrick what do you think yeah I don’t think you could be in it until like you know a true Capital rot like if we’ be really in the process like you’d have silver outperforming gold and that’s just like that’s not happening yet so you’re because you know I need the markets to to go down so it’s all a question about timing the markets I I have the SPX chart uh memorized you know

there’s a rising trend line on the monthly chart still above its 12 month average so from a a mathematical aspect I don’t know it probably needs at least a few months just to start maybe closing below that Rising trend line and then properly starting to maybe stay below it so it can’t you know I six months maybe we we start uh you know we start getting some SPX closes below its Rising trend line three to six months and then after that maybe later this year it really starts unraveling um yeah it could it could take a little uh time

there for that for that big ship to to turn over there gotcha and Kevin what do you think put a gun to my head I don’t like I don’t putting price projections well we started off talking about guns off camera so we because it’s all about the breakout people have to remember this people put timelines hey Patrick you said 2025 gold silver would be wor no I’m not we’re not I’m not gonna hold you to it I’m just curious like you had to choose yeah yes but I’ll have to explain because these these these road

maps they stretch in time until the the line the most meaningful line is breach that’s what the chart Trader does the better the chart Trader the better he’s able to tell you this line is the most most meaningful one there’s a whole bunch of lines that are the they breakouts but the most meaningful one which one is it I identify that we identify that and my my crazy Target it scales in time until oh I’m above bam that’s that’s payor for me that’s the greatest moves in the shortest amount of time that’s it whatever happens under I

don’t care you know it’s like yeah it went up off a bottom 100% I don’t for me I’m gonna I’m going for the 800% in the shortest amount of time so I gave you my Target but I there’s no breakdown yet in SPX so it’s kind of slightly meaningless it’s just a fun guess right yeah yeah so don’t hold hold me to it no we won’t we won’t we’ll we’ll see we’ll only hold you to it if you get it right uh true of course I want the credits yeah of course I called the top guys come on guys Kevin what do you what do you think

I say six to nine months something like that um for me we it’s a capital rotation process that um comes about through a series of evidence and as Andy said the evidence started coming in some time ago that the process was beginning the event the the event confirmation for me anyway comes when SPX has fallen something around 15 to 20% and pushed the gold to SPX ratio above 0.5 so the chart suggest that that could happen anytime in the next few months not we’re not talking years here we’re talking months um and it it looks

logical from the charts that it could be late this year it could extend into the early part of next year but it it looks as though the the confirmation is likely to come towards the end of this year but it literally is a case of seeing SPX fall nominally something around 15 to 20% we have a a Target on our charts for the gold to SPX ratio and what the the current SPX needs to fall to I mean it’s 50% of the gold value if gold is $3,000 then um you need SPX to fall to 6,000 okay if gold is 2,800 then SPX

needs to fall to to uh 5600 so you know as the gold price moves up and down you can work it out Simply in your head just double the gold price and if the SPX Falls to that value that’s your confirmation and I would say late this year is the most likely time goodness imagine if it breaks down like next month it could it can happen it’s a rocket on a Launchpad and you know the fuse is pretty much lit it’s just the case of how long’s the fuse but it’s uh it’s ready to go yeah yeah yeah fun guess that’s all just wanted to see

where your headspace was that well guys thank you so much for coming on great interview as always let’s go around the table and uh if you want to plug anything go ahead Andy I know you’re uh you’ve got your YouTube channel finding value Finance anything else you want to plug no no you can find me on YouTube and you can find me on the website that I’ve got so yeah that’s all finding.com all right uh Patrick Kevin where people find you guys Patrick you can go first Northstar bats.com guys we get all the juicy

details there uh else Twitter man there’s always great stuff happening on Twitter Barts one on Twitter all right yeah same here it’s at Northstar charts on Twitter but Northstar bad charts.com and you can find me Kevin wwth on LinkedIn as well if you’re really uh that geeky about it awesome we have the links everyone’s socials down below so be sure to give everyone a follow and check out the websites so with all that said thank you guys for watching and uh give us a like And subscribe to the channel so you don’t miss an episode if

you agreed with what any of the participants had to say right go Andy go right go Kevin go or WR go Patrick go I want to see who won drop me who you think won in the what wasn’t a debate it was just fun discussion the teddy bear one there you go he’s been sitting there taking all you know who won and Danny the the viewers won hopefully oh so oh my god that hurt me very Coy all right guys well I hope you enjoyed the the show the interview drop me your thoughts really interested to get your thoughts and check us out on

substack at capital. sub.com where you can get Early Access and AD free versions of all of my videos and uncensored version for the videos that warrant it and uh yeah thanks for watching catch you later bye