Gold’s Next Big Move: Key Levels, Inflation Risks, and Tariff Impact Explained | Gary Wagner
welcome back to Kito news and happy New Year everyone I’m Jeremy saffron well Goldman Sachs is revising its outlook for gold pushing back its forecast of $3,000 an ounce from this year to Mid 2026 now the change comes at Mid expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a slower approach to cutting interest rates inflation is already setting the tone for 2025 with the latest producer price index report showing a smaller than expected rise of 2% in December now at first glance this might sound like good news but here’s
where it gets interesting energy costs surged with gasoline prices jumping nearly 10% and core inflation which excludes food and energy stayed flat so where does this mean uh gold will go and what does it mean for your Investments could this set the stage for one more dip in Gold before it moves higher or is that $3,000 level off the table let’s dive into the charts with Gary Wagner of course editor of the gold forecast.com one of our favorites Gary welcome back to the show Happy New Year my friend
great to see you happy New Year and yes it’s great to be here and it’s a new year and I’m excited I’m excited as to what we’ll see unfold this year me too uh I hope your holidays were good I I got married Gary so we’re starting the year fresh over here uh speaking of starting the year fresh gold is up 1.7% so far this year holding steady at current levels but I know I was talking to you before and you see a short-term dip on the horizon before prices rally above that $2,700 Mark again uh so let’s
talk about it here Gary what’s driving the Outlook and and what’s the technical story behind it absolutely absolutely if you recall I believe we did our last interview uh first second week of December and at that point we were fully immersed in a correction if we can pull up our daily chart we had hit the all-time record high back in October and we had this tremendous move down from 2800 to below 2600 when we talked last we were looking at this move back up what I labeled as a b-wave and I talked
about the good and the bad and in terms of the good and bad what I mean is I still believe that we are in a correction although we are in the final stages of that correction and the exciting part is once the correction concludes and I don’t see that taking that long to unfold in other words I believe it’ll happen the first or second month of this year March at the latest um then we restart the clock in terms of our Elliot wave count and that means we will according to Elliot wave theory take out 2800 $100 minimum by the
conclusion of what we’re labeling as the next motive or impulse cycle in terms of what we witnessed recently that I found interesting is if you see this green candle that I’m pointing to Friday January 10th and that’s when the jobs report came out and they were anticipating a fairly tepid report 160,000 new jobs added to payroll and it came in well above expectations and that would typically be bearish for gold but what we saw was gold actually moved up and moved Above This upper level resistance
line I think what we saw was a delayed or knee-jerk reaction to the jobs report because yesterday we had that double digit selloff in which gold lost almost $40 and so now it’s back within this compression triangle my sense is that we could have one more move down this final ewave and that could take us anywhere between 2650 and 2630 but after that concludes we will then go back into our impulse phase or motor phase and that will take gold higher as we move into the the second quarter and Beyond this year interesting
okay so obviously we’ll we’ll get that dip and I I gotta ask you to G I mean if we do see that dip that you’re talking about before we see this uh come to fruition another little bit of a uh hopefully some profits I mean what should investors watch for to confirm that the rally is underway in the charts like you mentioned there just because the last time we saw the dip we thought maybe it was the last one well the the last time we talked I said that we would get a seawave down and that could go as low as about 2600
that’s exactly what we saw I would expect this correction to be shallower than the previous one and the way that we want to look at it as a market technician we’ve got a series of highs we have lower highs 2800 here 2750 here and then 2714 we’ll round it down to 27 so we’ve got a market that’s got a series of lower Highs but we also have higher lows uh 2570 here 2602 here and so what we want to do to confirm that the correction is over we want to look at these price points meaning 2575 2600 as major
support if we look at this lower level support line that’s just created from drawing a line from a series of lows here and here and carrying it forward we should get some sort of confirmation if gold as I believe it could continues to sell off then we want to see either candle STI pattern or we want to see how it reacts for example here at 2620 and then we have a series of lows here at about 2640 so if it continues to move down we want to see that V or pivot from bullish to bearish and typically
what you look for is um a color change in the case of a correction from red to Green if we convert this to our what’s called a Japanese average it’s a little easier to read or Japanese average you can see that as gold had this one leg of the major correction candle size got smaller and then you had your pivot the pivot meaning a color change from red to Green as it moved up we had from green to red and you can see that down here you had large bodies in terms of the candle size and they got very very small
telling us that we possibly have bottomed this particular leg of the rally was slow to start but it did pick up steam and traded as high as 279 and that was just last week yeah well said okay let’s shift over to the US dollar Index because uh you and I were speaking before coming on the air and you highlighted the potential for the dollar to climb to 113 before hitting major resistance so what makes this level so significant and let’s talk to the audience how does it tie into the gold story well the one thing that I find
amazing and um let me go ahead and blow this up a little bit because what we’re focusing on is this high that came in in November and October of 20202 when we look at what the dollar has done recently it’s been range bound between about 106 on the high with support just around 100 but if you look at what happened in September of 2024 we started climbing in the same way that we climbed back in July of 2023 in which in terms of the value of the dollar as it re com is compared to the basket of currencies it trades
against it went from 100 to recently 109 and that represents a 9% uh addition value when compared to the basket the Euro there’s seven other currencies that the dollar Index is kind of paired against and so we saw the other currencies not fair as well and you had incredible dollar strength from October and September of last year to current pricing and at the same time we saw gold move substantially higher up until October of last year because what we saw then was $2,800 gold so we had dollar strength and we’ve had
gold strength happening almost in perfect sync they go out of alignment but you get the rare quality of them both moving to higher values and as I’ve said before on the show that is a rare occurrence and tends to only happen when you have uh Federal Reserve intervention uh heavy changes in monetary policy and that’s what we’ve seen over the the end of last year and into this year yeah and we continue to see where that’s going to be driving it at 2025 okay finally Gary you mentioned key technical levels for gold and then
there the dollar Index but what about Market sentiment I mean it seems like it’s waned a bit are Traders underestimating or overestimating the potential for a breakout in Gold I mean I guess the question is how much of these moves are being driven by fear versus fundamentals well let’s look at the fundamentals that drove gold higher and ask one simple question are they still in the marketplace are they still causing the potential for uncertainty geopolitical and I’m talking about the Middle East Russia and Ukraine those two
conflicts have not resolved the negative is that you really saw you really saw strong uh Tailwinds for gold as the Federal Reserve began to cut rates because gold doesn’t bear interest so when compared against fixed assets lower interest rates Mak gold more attractive higher interest rates makes gold uh less attractive excuse me and so we still have the potential for geopolitical uncertainty and then let’s move to political uncertainty we have a new president coming in and there’s a couple of things
that could challenge both the levels of inflation as well as our budget deficit and both of those are items that gold is very sensitive to in other words a larger deficit would would create Tailwinds bullish Tailwinds for gold inflation ticking up would in fact do the same thing and that brings into tariffs and that’s an important thing that we should touch upon yeah yeah well okay I’m going to talk to you about tariffs and I want your macro take because we’re kind of as you mentioned in the in
between here waiting for January 20th but silver has been outperforming gold so far it’s up 4% year today so what’s your take on Silver’s trajectory could it follow Gold’s lead into the second half of the Year well you know when we look at Silver last year it did something it hasn’t done in in a decade which is really break above 30 I’m trying to compress it to bring in some data so if we look at uh 2024 and if we look at 2023 you can see that silver was really caught in between what $20 on the low
end and $28 here in fact silver didn’t break above 30 until April of last year then it hit a higher top at 33 and eventually hit a price point we haven’t seen I believe in about a decade which is silver at about $35 so I believe that silver has some room to the upside in terms of our Elliot wave count we believe that unlike gold that is still in the midst of a correction silver could have potentially completed the correction when it traded down $29 on the way down from $35 and if that’s a case we’ve entered
what’s called a new impulse or motive phase waves one through five and typically the theory goes that at the conclusion of the fifth wave and I don’t have a time element nor do I have specific about the waves because you really need wave one which we use as a benchmark wave before we can be more decisive but we should conclude above $35 an ounce when this motive phase completes in silver yeah a lot of people waiting for that one uh okay let’s get back to the macro take here because you just kind of mentioned a little bit of
what we’ve been seeing since I last talked to you Gary uh you know there’s possibly some Acro surprises that investors should po gear up for I mean many analysts on Wall Street don’t see the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January March May or even June at this point now that’s due in part to what you mentioned this latest blowout us jobs report that showed the economy adding 256,000 jobs in crushing estimates the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1% now we do know that these numbers numbers often get revised later down the
line and of course just before Trump takes office here we’re getting these latest numbers so what’s your macro Outlook given this well one of the the things that the the FED has been focused upon is they were solely focused upon getting inflation to their 2% Target as they did that the labor market began to cool so they wanted to make sure that they supported the labor market the last jobs report tells you that the economy in the US is strong it is vibrant it’s running on at least uh six or seven out of eight
cylinders right now I mean coming in at 256,000 jobs added in December so that bodess well for that however at the same time the FED made a tremendous revision to their monetary policy where we were expecting what we call interest rate normalization where they had moved interest rates up Beyond 5% and is inflation began to tick down they began to cut rates pretty aggressively at first and then the big um surprise at the December fomc meeting and prior to that statements that pow had made that they’re not in a hurry they don’t want
to rush it in other words that they were going to slow the pace of rate Cuts initially we were looking for three this calendar year and now it comes down to whether we’ll see two or maybe even one but as you correctly pointed out the interest rate cuts at the FED in Acts this year will be dependent on the most current data and so we’ll have to see where that data leads us to because with a new Administration with tariffs and also uh concerns about whether Trump will sh show fiscal prudency or whether he will
like last time spend more than the country takes in which is what every president has done but it’s to what degree um and will inflation which has now become sticky in other words we saw great results as inflation came down from the records in 2022 at about 9% and started to go into the threes which is where we are but now there are some things that that are sticky or persistent as you mentioned earlier energy being a large one of those components if inflation is troublesome then the Federal Reserve is
going to want to put a cap on economic growth so to speak so that inflation comes more in in alignment with their 2% Target and so that’s the question the $64 million question that we don’t know is will will there be more inflation will that inflation be persistent and how the economy will work and what the FED will do as result of that right yeah and a lot of people asking what this data revisions will look like uh when there’s a new Administration in the white house too okay Gary you and I just talked about
this slower monetary easing as I mentioned off the top Goldman saxs analysts have locked back their $3,000 gold for forecast from this year moving it to 202 2026 rather now they’re now projecting gold prices reach 2910 announced by the year uh by the end of this year in 2025 Goldman’s economists have also adjusted their rate cut projections this year lowering the forecast from 100 basis points to 75 basis points uh what’s your take on this I know you and I just talked about that next rally potential to
$2,800 but is the top for gold this year a gain of less than $300 personally I don’t believe so based on both the technical indicators that I am looking at as well as the fundamentals at play if president-elect Trump is true to his commitments to implement tariffs those could create tremendous inflationary pressures if that happens it will cause the FED to act one way and inflation is a an environment that gold tends to do quite well as long as the conflicts the geopolitical conflicts are still uh
fully embedded and it doesn’t seem as though they’re slowing down when we look at what’s going on in Russia and Ukraine uh Russia’s been devastated by the amount of troops they’ have lost at last count it was possibly as high as 500,000 but they are now bringing in the North Koreans they have Iran manufacturing drones for them and China funding the war because all of those countries believe that they’ll benefit from knocking America down a notch in terms of its stability as a world power and when you’ve got the kind of power
that you could have especially with China and Russia aligned with Iran being kind of a proxy of them and then South Korea coming in you’ve got the potential for the conflict in Ukraine to accelerate rather than come to a peaceful resolution as we all hope for right in terms of Middle East that is still although it’s gone out of the new cycle it’s still fully embedded and it hasn’t come really closer to a conflict than when they began over a year ago and so those are Troublesome problems I personally see
gold not only taking out 2800 but my numbers have been about 2900 with the upper level possible being 3,000 and what I’m basing that on is the various legs of the rally back in October of um 23 Gold was just under 2000 and from there it ran to 2535 so it ran roughly $500 then it entered a correction the correction took it back down to about $2,380 and from 2380 it ran to $2,800 so we saw a $500 rally right and then we saw a $400 rally if gold as I believe it could trades as low as 2600 if we add 300 to that we’re
at900 if it comes closer to the rallies that we saw at the end of 23 all the way up to call it the middle of May and and then when the clock restarted so to speak in July we had gold at 2400 and it went up to 2800 that’s a $400 move of the smaller of the two rallies so if we take 400 from 26 we do get to 3,000 but I think that this new call is pretty concise in terms of when we might hit 3,000 I wouldn’t be surprised if it did take till the first quarter of next year 2026 but I think we most certainly will
test 2900 at some point this year in gold all right well said okay well we have to discuss this issue of tariffs I mean I must bring it up just a little bit of background for the viewers us president-elect Donald Trump is said to obviously return to the White House on January 20th now he’s making headlines with promises to impose new trade tariffs including a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an an additional 10% tariff on China now analysts warn that these tariffs could spark trade Wars and much like you said Gary reignite
inflationary pressures of course now all the key words are here is that tariffs on All Imports are Universal right seraps on targeted countries the one big unknown is whether precious metals will be targeted Gary uh this could have a massive impact and we don’t expect Clarity on this of course right away I should also note that interestingly we’re already seeing Metals flowing back to the US I know that our own Ernest Hoffman reported on this of course a sharp reversal from postco trends when they were predominantly moving from the
West to the east now the shift began on uh November 20th when Trump announced the potential tariffs since then comx Warehouse stocks have surged up by 4.4 million ounces for gold 16 million ounces for silver and 133 uh th000 ounces for platinum now physical metals are being presumptively shipped to the US driven of course by looming threats of tffs and what that means this of course is the latest information by MKS data Gary you’ve been doing this a long time my friend elaborate on whether this could happen I
mean explain why precious metals have been exempt from tariffs in the past well what I can say is it’s a it’s a huge unknown we have seen for not the most part but on many occasions uh Trump make a pledge that he’s going to do something and then he does try to accomplish that and if in fact what we see is that he implements tariffs across the board that could create trade Wars as you said but huge inflationary pressures because as tariffs are added to the cost of goods that takes the cost of goods up and that
is intrinsically the definition of inflation paying more for the same item as you did previously now when it comes to the precious metals as you pointed out they have been for the most part exempt we’ll have to see how that unfolds if that’s the case um that throws yet another possibility and another potential to move the metals higher and create those uh bullish Tailwinds the fact of the matter is if our inventories are picking up in terms of physical in the United States initially uh supply and demand would
dictate that that could pressure them lower because our stockpiles our inventory is greater but inevitably if they have to add a sech charge or a tariff as they import precious metals that would have a profound implications on what we could see in the price one thing it will do is create extreme volatility regardless of where the metals go from day to day uh but they certainly could have a genuine impact overall on the price of gold silver Platinum to to a smaller extent Palladium this year yeah interesting and you
mentioned you know if it does happen we could see some prices going up or down at least some volatility how long is that lagging effect usually take place well we won’t really know until president-elect Trump becomes the next president and what his first steps are in terms of his new Administration we do re from the last election when he was president he was fairly quick to immediately Implement certain things certain pledges he had made and I wouldn’t expect him to be different now than he was
then if he is quick to begin to implement these things specifically tariffs because the budget deficit in terms of growth we would see throughout the year and throughout his term not necessarily right at the beginning but the tariffs would have an immediate and profound impact on the cost of goods if he does make good on his pledge to be heavy handed with tariffs we could see a major uptick in inflation we know what higher inflation does for gold and until it unfolds I don’t really want to make comments because it’s an unknown
yeah but he has implemented tariffs in the past they of course in many occasions were repealed when Biden came in but he if he reinstituted see inflationary pressures really move up and move up quickly yeah well said well let’s wait and see January 20th uh coming very quickly Gary Wagner of course editor of the gold forecast.com thanks for your Insight my friend as always your accuracy last year was impressive Gary it helped steer investors to some good profits so here’s to keeping that momentum going this year
in 2025 thank you so very much thank you again for watching and don’t forget to hit the Subscribe button I’m Jeremy saffr and for all of us here at kco news it’s great to be back in the studio stay tuned for lots of exciting content including our recent coverage of the Vancouver resource investment conference coming soon we’ll see you next time
