Gold in 2025 (Uncut) 01-28-2025

Gold in 2025: Why Major Banks Are Betting on $3,000+ PER OUNCE

Hello GoldSilver family, Alan Hibbert here with another video and today I want to go through some price predictions for gold for 2025. So, let’s dive in and first we’ll take a look at an article from Goldman Sachs. They had a prediction earlier in January.

Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their target price for gold in 2025 to $2,910 per ounce. Okay, $2,900, not bad. Next, Citi, and this comes from July of 2024.

So, it’s a bit older, however, they give an 18-month forecast. So, Citi forecasts continued growth in gold investment demand, potentially absorbing nearly all mine supply over the next 12 to 18 months. This underpins their projection for gold prices to reach up to $3,000 per ounce by 2025.

Okay, $3,000. Next, JP Morgan. This comes to us in December.

JP Morgan projects gold prices rising to $3,000 an ounce by late 2025. Another $3,000. And finally, UBS is bullish on gold.

This was from November. In a CNBC interview, UBS announced its anticipation for gold in 2025 to hit a price target of $3,000 per ounce. And by the way, they’re not alone.

So, here’s a compilation of a whole bunch of analysts, and all the ones in the red box have predicted $3,000 an ounce gold. So, it’s kind of funny to me. This is clearly not like a hard analysis if you’re coming up with such a round number like $3,000, but it is interesting how so many industry peers come up with a target around that area.

And of course, some are higher, going up to as high as $5,000 an ounce. Robert Kiyosaki likes to be at the top of that list, I think. And some are lower, but still holding that $2,900 line.

So, a lot of analysts predicting around $2,900, $3,000, $3,100 an ounce gold. But you might ask yourself, how good are these analysts? So, let’s take a look at how they did last year. Here’s a chart that has a lot of information in it, so let me walk you through it.

The vertical axis is the price of gold. The horizontal axis, we have four different banks here, the ones we just looked at. And the bars here, the dark blue and the light blue, these are the price predictions that they made for the end of each year, for the end of 2024 and the end of 2025.

So, just looking at the height of the two bars, you can see that all four of these banks have significantly increased their price targets from one year to the next. They’ve all risen them by over 35%, just shy of 40%. So, that’s a pretty big move in one year, right? Raising your price target that much.

Okay, but again, how did they do? So, if we look at this black line going across here at $2,072, that was the closing price at the end of 2023. Or in other words, it was the price of gold on the first day of 2024. And what were these banks predicting the price of gold would be at the end of 2024? Well, that’s the dark blue line that’s just barely above this black bar.

So, these banks thought that the price of gold would barely move just a couple of percentage points. In the case of Goldman Sachs, they thought that gold would increase by less than 1%. Just $18 from 2072 to 2090, less than 1% in a year.

Okay, of course that didn’t happen. We know that gold returned to 27%. So, all of these analysts were way off.

They significantly underestimated what gold would do. So, that’s pretty massive. So, now we turn our attention to 2025.

Okay, the price on opening day was $2,641. So, that’s this medium color blue here in the middle. And the price targets that these banks have put out are these light blue bars that are a little bit above.

However, if gold performs the same in 2025 as it did in 2024, about 27.5%, that would put gold up here at $3,367 per ounce. And you can see there’s a pretty significant shortfall. A lot of white space here between the top of these blue bars and this dotted blue line.

So, 2025 could be another example of significant underestimation on the part of those Wall Street analysts. But we will see. We will see.

What I want to do is zoom out and look at this whole thing in a broader context. I want to remind you, for folks who may have forgotten, the current gold bull market looks a lot like the last bull market of the 1970s. This blue line here is the gold bull market of the 1970s.

And the timeline is at the bottom of the screen. And the price of gold is over here on the left-hand side. Gold moved from $35 an ounce to just shy of $8.75 in the span of a decade.

That’s massive. The current bull market is in gold. So, that started at the beginning of the 21st century.

And it followed along the same trajectory pretty nicely, although taking a longer time period, until COVID. This deviation here was really the COVID crash, and it hasn’t fully recovered. However, that’s not going to stop the bull market.

It’s just going to delay it. So, I’m still expecting to get a pretty nice rocket ship move at the end of the bull run whenever that happens. And I’m thinking it’s in the next year or two.

So, it could be 2025, could be 2026, could be 2027, but it’s definitely coming soon. And what’s interesting is you get the biggest moves at the end of the bull market. So, now I want to show this same data broken up by annual returns.

So, these are the annual returns of the 1970s bull market. And you can see that in 1973, look at this return. It was over 70% in one year, 70% return in one year.

So, a lot of big moves here, a pullback in the middle, and then the bull market ended with an absolutely explosive move. The price of gold more than doubled in a year, more than double. It was over a 125% return.

And the current bull market, which is taking longer, has shown a fairly similar trajectory. A lot of healthy returns, over 30%, a pullback in the middle, some down years. And I’m expecting that we’re going to end this bull run, whenever that is, 2025, 2026, something like that, with the biggest annual candle that we’ve seen.

That’s what I’m thinking. So, here, the red one I’ve drawn here is over 60%. Who knows if it will actually be that high.

I’m not confident that it will happen in 2025, but it certainly is possible. So, even if we get something like 30%, that will still be massive. So, those are some predictions for 2025.

What do you guys think? Do you have a price prediction for gold? Let me know in the comments section, and thank you so much for watching.