Economists Uncut

David Lin (Uncut) 01-16-2025

Markets Surge On Lower Core Inflation, Will Momentum Continue? | Michael Lee

Huge market rally today on the 15th of January’s inflation data came out headline inflation came in at 2.9% here on year core inflation slowed down to 3.2% a bit lower than the previous month of lower than the expectation S&P 500 is up 1.9% the NASDAQ is up more than 2.5% gold’s up 1.4% Bitcoin is rallying back towards 100k a coin up 3.5% today. And the Tanger yield down 2% huge drop in the Tanger so we’ll talk about what’s next with equities fixed income and sectors you should be watching as an investor today with Mike Lee founder of Michael Lee strategy welcome to the show Michael good to see you. Thank you so much for having me excited to be here.

 

Let’s talk about recent news coming out of the BLS core inflation slows down to 3.2%. We’re up by 4.6% from a year ago the smallest one year gains since January 2022 stock market surge on the news. And yeah consumer price index increased at a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month 12 month inflation at 2.9% this is headline. The annual number was in line with forecasts so core inflation slowing down a little bit in terms of growth.

 

You know stock markets reacting well to the news are people now pricing back another possibility of a rate cut. Keep in mind that last week we had jobs numbers that surged higher than expected that put rate cut expectations back in the burner. So what’s your take on what’s going on right now.

 

So like I don’t think we’re at 2% inflation I think we’re on our way. How long it takes to get there how bumpy the road is between here and there that remains to be seen. I don’t see anything wildly inflationary in front of us, especially if we can get government spending even down just slightly, which that’s a big if you’re going to see a decrease regulation.

 

Lower energy costs at some point over the next year. The world’s going to change and there’s all this hemming and hawing about tariffs and inflationary and how bad they’re going to be like it just simply didn’t happen. The last time Trump was president so like for you to expect at this time it’s it’s a guess right it’s it’s not based on any evidence or any prior track record.

 

So it’s my feeling that inflation is settling down. Okay we I think the CPI and what people have actually felt over the last four years are wildly different and things are much more expensive than CPI has told. But I think the rate of change the speed with which prices are increasing has definitely slowed down dramatically and I expect that to to continue.

 

Okay, what the Fed will do or not do I think you need to look at that through a political lens. I do believe Jerome Powell is a political animal. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out if Trump actually does fire him because Powell goes off off the off the rails trying to talk about rate hikes or rate increases.

 

But like the entire Fed board changed their their tune of you know since November 5th and there’s been no real hard data to make them have such a 180 other than the election. And so I don’t think he’s as overtly political as Janet Yellen was but I have little or no faith in Jerome Powell to do the right thing. Wait a minute what is the right thing and why is he political what do you mean by that.

 

Look look at the way they’ve talked since the election right and rate height expectations what what may you tell me what major data points have there been to okay well we’re going to have multiple rate cuts this year to rate hikes are on the table. Like well nothing nothing as far as I’m concerned. And it’s it’s this pivot that we got in the middle of November from Paul.

 

Here’s here’s I mean if you’re asking me what what I think is happening I mean that’s I’ll leave this to your interpretation but they’re they’re looking at this data right and the uptick in inflation that’s been happening month over month. Basically since August it’s been ticking up not down. And so they’re probably looking at that and thinking inflation sticky and you know time time to pause even though Trump is saying hey probably something else but anyway is this really the factor here yeah.

 

So you know we’re we’re 100 to 150 basis points of where the Fed funds rate is above where CPI is. Okay how restrictive do you need to be how restrictive do you want to be right and you know there’s going to be another revision to the BLS. So this this jobs market that’s so great so much of it is based on the birth death adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is making every month like I don’t.

 

I don’t believe the numbers that are coming out of the BLS in terms of the job growth. I’m not suggesting we’re in some sort of recession or the economy is falling off a cliff. I just don’t believe their numbers like you know last year we got an 818,000 revision down I expect we’ll get another massive revision down and we’re from a quarter million to three quarters of a million jobs.

 

Which puts the entire thing in perspective the quits rate has fallen off a cliff. The jolts I don’t put any weight in the jolts. I’ll just tell you why a decade ago you had a 70% response rate in the survey now it’s like 30 or 35.

 

So all of like it’s it’s really hard to measure this data. Okay from a standpoint like you have like spreadsheets that go out to the millionth. You know you’re probably on triples here quadruples the out there on these spreadsheets and any small assumption can send these numbers off like they only sample a small they have a small sample of the entire workforce which they’re trying to extrapolate.

 

I don’t think it’s been very accurate. I think if you go back to pre covid the errors in the NFP. You can take August of 2014 and compare it to August of 2004 and you have similar similar errors in it and something happened to the data in a post covid world where the accuracy it’s hard to pinpoint like where the actual labor market is.

 

And the errors of the BLS report. Okay, I don’t think we can compare now to pre covid and I think it’s harder to get people on the phone I don’t think they’re doing as good a job. But my point is prior to covid you had apples to apples comparisons.

 

So whatever air existed in 2015 in October, it existed in 2013. So while those exact numbers may have been off. You could kind of it was a constant where now I just I don’t.

 

I don’t put a lot of faith in these numbers and this job growth that we’re seeing or hearing or talking about given the massive revisions and I, you know, we had like a two year period where 23 out of 24 numbers came in above expectations and by the third. By the second revision, they were below expectations, which is like an eight or nine standard deviation event. So equivalent of getting struck by lightning three times in one day.

 

It’s just something’s broken in their model and I’m not sure if it’s political, intentional, or just because it’s really hard. Before we continue the video, let me tell you about how important it is to protect your personal data. A massive data breach recently exposed nearly three billion personal records once again highlighting the growing risks of having your private information online.

 

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I want to talk about political and geopolitical risks just a bit, but take a look at my screen now, Mike. I want to show you two pieces of information here. This is from the NFIB optimism index small business optimism surging optimism in the last couple of readings.

 

This is 100 is rebased to 1986 and you can see that optimism has been dismal all throughout 2022. As a stock market went down and bonds went down that year and then it’s stay low. And then all of a sudden just quite recently, according to the survey, small businesses are optimistic.

 

Once more, a separate report by the WEF World Economic Forum says that 42% of businesses are concerned about a slowdown. Economics slowed down to a lesser extent and inflation is top of mind. So kind of a mixed message.

 

I’m getting from two different reports here, but what’s your take on just this staff that I’m presenting to you? What do you think this is or feeling? David, I love this chart. November to December of 2024, the largest one month jump in the small business optimum index. The second largest jump, the same time period in 2016.

 

There’s a constant there. It’s the election of Donald Trump. In both instances, that’s what you got in the NFIB small business optimum index.

 

I think business is going to get better over the course of the next year. You’re going to get less regulation. We’re going to get the tax cut extended and people just are going to feel better.

 

And some of this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can see it clearly. You look at that chart.

 

There’s two massive upward jumps, one in 2016, one in 2024. People feel better about doing business under Donald Trump. How capable is the American consumer now in order in terms of spending? Do you think that spending power will remain in 2025? It’s one thing to feel good.

 

It’s another thing to actually have money to spend and drive the economy. Yeah, but it’s top heavy. And I think that’s been the story of the last few years.

 

For the wealthy in this country, the last four years have been a tremendous wealth creation event. If you own a lot of assets, inflation is good for you. So it’s, I believe a lot of the spending that we’re seeing is from the top five to 10% of the economy.

 

And it’s it’s overtly so. And that’s what’s driving the growth. This optimism that I showed you earlier, is that a leading indicator for hiring’s, capex, so on? You know, it was the last time.

 

Okay. It was the last time around. It just shows a mentality.

 

People more willing to invest or people, people willing to go out there. Like we’ll see, but you have to believe you’re going to have, you’re going to have similar effects. And like, just because I don’t believe the jobs report doesn’t mean I believe the economy is going off a cliff.

 

I just think the numbers are overstated. I think we’re slugging along, but the expansion of the government over the last four years has been unbelievable. One out of every four dollars of debt the United States has was created in the last four years under this administration.

 

It’s been absolutely devastating. The first three months of this fiscal year, the largest deficits we’ve ever had. The U.S. has to refinance $9 trillion worth of debt over the course of the next year, because Jan Yellen decided to just roll over short-term treasuries so she didn’t have a list trust event and blow out the long end of the curve.

 

So I think the economy will improve this year. I think business conditions will improve over this year, but it’s not going to be smooth. I don’t think it’ll be as pretty as 2017 and 2018 the way the last time Trump came in, but like, I think things will get better.

 

Your outlook for economic growth overall in 2025. Lower growth, higher growth in 2024, recession, no recession, what’s your take? I don’t see recession on the table in any way, shape or form. I think we have a pretty good economy this year.

 

2% give or take GDP growth, and then if they’re effective in reducing the size of government, 2025 could be another year, 3% GDP growth, right? Or that may be pushed out, I’m sorry, 26 and maybe be pushed out to 27, but the problem is the larger government gets, the more it crowds out the private sector. So if the government makes up a quarter of the economy and the private sector is growing at 4%, that gives you 3% GDP. If the government’s half the economy and that same 4% growth from the private sector, that’s 2% GDP growth.

 

So how can we reduce government as a size of the overall pie? There are a tremendous amount of problems created in this last four years that need to be addressed. There’s a small majority, Republican majority in Congress, largely due to their inability to govern the way that their base wants to. So people willing to vote for Donald Trump, they’re not willing to vote for Republicans and Congress, which makes things challenging.

 

So I think there could be a lot to get done. I think you could improve a lot. I think, unfortunately, a lot hinges on Doge, which doesn’t really have any power other than a massive spotlight on government inefficiencies.

 

Okay, so then asset allocation sector overview. Let’s start with asset classes. First, overweight or underweight equity is relative to, let’s say, a bunch of commodities this year.

 

So I have massive overweight to stocks vis-a-vis technology. I think this artificial intelligence is a turning point in technology history. Everything we do is about data.

 

And the Arabic data, in my opinion, started about 15 years ago, 16 years ago, even though I guess it technically started in 2000. But if you think about it, think of all of the data ever created and collected from the beginning of the history of time until the end of the year 2003. We now collect that every single, every two days.

 

Okay, put in perspective, all of the data in the year 2002, we now collect that in one day. So to sort through this, you need a massive amount of computing power that computing power to sort through it or your generative AI models. This is an unbelievable time to be a technology investor.

 

And while interest rates moving around might put some pressure on that in short-term phenomena, the growth and the speed of growth is going to be much greater than I think even the rosiest of analysts’ expectations on Wall Street. Why tech right now? I mean, you don’t feel like the MAG-7 has already run hot enough, far enough. People are trying to trim down their tech holdings, take profits.

 

I’ve talked to some tech investors. What’s your thesis here? It’s hard for the street to model exponential growth. And let’s just use NVIDIA.

 

The argument against NVIDIA, going back 18 months, okay, we buy some NVIDIA GPUs. What’s the upgrade cycle? Is it a one and done? Is it every three years? Is it every five years? Well, what I took away from Jensen Wang last Monday at CES is not that they came out with a laptop. It’s that their newest GPUs can give you the same price, you can get three times the compute power, or you can get the same compute power you’re using now for a third of the price.

 

So things are moving on an exponential basis, and the amount of data being created is more every year, it’s increasing at an exponential level. Okay, to get through that and to make sense of it, you’re going to need an awesome amount of compute infrastructure, and you’re going to need software to operate it. And these are once in a lifetime type technology changes.

 

And so, yes, these stocks have run off again, way more to run, especially like NVIDIA. Right now, the stock hasn’t moved in like six or seven months, even though their earnings are up substantially, I don’t think the way that I’m looking at it, you’re at about 27, 28 times earnings on a four basis, even though Yahoo Finance or somebody else might tell you 50 or 60, like it’s not looking at it correctly. They’re likely to beat street estimates.

 

Who knows if they’ll beat them enough for the stock to explode an earnings day like it has in the past, but this stock continues to get cheaper. And there may be other pockets of the market that outperform technology, the next three, six, nine months. Okay, but over the next two or three years, it’s not even close.

 

Where is the earnings growth? The mag seven earnings growth over the next year, or sorry, the top 10 on the S&P 500. So it’s the mag seven plus three more names. You’re looking at 30 plus percent earnings growth over the next 12 months with substantial margins.

 

And those numbers, like you’re likely to beat those numbers. And like, how is that not going to be repeated in 2026 and 2027 with the healthier economy and all of this data growing on an exponential basis? You individual companies can’t even build their own AI models and their own data centers because all of these GPUs are being taken up by cloud providers. Okay, so right now you’ve got to pay a markup to use Amazon’s clouds, Google’s clouds, Oracle’s cloud, instead of building your own, building your own data center, buying your own GPUs, because it’s too hard to get your hands on.

 

Okay, so we are so far away from the edge of this demand and it’s getting your arms around this exponential growth and how quickly things are changing and how fast this AI is going to take over absolutely everything in terms of your workflow. And a better way to think about the upside for AI is how much would you personally pay for someone that could help you with your job 24 seven? Would you pay him 30 grand? Would you pay him 40 grand? Okay, well, Microsoft right now gets a thousand dollars a year for co-pilot for their high-end product. So that means you have anywhere between 30 and 40 x upside in charging for things like this.

 

So it’s just unbelievable the way you look out and I’m an investor, not necessarily a trader. And so to me, I will sit through this volatility, I will watch people panic sell their tech and I will either add more or just ride the wave because I know the street cannot get their arms around exponential growth, they’ve never been able to. And this is a trend that’s starting now that’s going to go on for many, many, many years.

 

This is a theme that I like to comment on and ask you about Mike. Quantum computing, this just came in today from CNBC. The crazy writing quantum computing stocks continue with shares rip higher on Microsoft’s quantum ready directive.

 

I mean, I know all stocks went up today. The markets are having a good day. But quantum computing stocks rallied Wednesday, spurred by a directive from Microsoft urging businesses to get quantum ready in 2025.

 

What does that mean for you? Is this a theme you’re watching out for and playing at all? So quantum is not something I have my arms around to be honest with you. Mike, I understand what it is and why it matters. But like you then go to your use cases.

 

Like what are they, what do we need them for and how is this going to change? Because the way that I think about AI is the T1000 from Terminator 2. In reality, what AI is is Facebook taking every single one of your interactions for the last decade and serving it up to advertisers. Processing that through, giving that data, building models for advertisers to come in. Or hospitals are using machine learning to figure out when they need to staff up.

 

So this quantum computing, I don’t know what the market like. I don’t have my arms around it the way that I do around AI. I wish I did my phones blowing up with some of these other stocks.

 

Do I need to buy some of this Riccetti computing? That’s not my sweet spot right now. I wish it was. But look, who’s at the forefront of it? Google and Microsoft.

 

These are your MAG 7 names that will be right front and center with all of them. And yes, these are not like the sexiest and the coolest names. And they’ve run a ton over the last couple of years.

 

And that’s because they’re going to continue to win. And like you want to talk about like use cases, again, Nvidia CEO, Jets and Wayne, said it like a few months ago for every GPU that Amazon or Microsoft buy for a dollar, they’re turning around and they’re renting it for five. So like for them to be able to do that, you know, you tell me about the demand.

 

Every single decision in corporate America or corporations worldwide is data driven. So how can we pull more data points, make sense of them and put it to work? And I think, you know, if rates stabilize, this will be the year of software. If rates do not stabilize because of all of this debt that needs to be issued.

 

And the Fed only cuts one so they don’t cut it all. You know, we might have a pause on technology until we have more clarity about the rate situation. But like Palantir, it has moved to time.

 

It is my all time favorite stock is the single greatest thing that I have ever seen. They are so far ahead of anyone else in the industry. I think the stock is many multiples higher in a couple of years.

 

How dependent are tech stocks, especially the big tech stocks on global liquidity, at least liquidity expectations? In other words, do you think that tech stocks earnings and or their stock prices will be driven by expectations for Fed policy this year and ultimately inflation, which we talked about earlier? Look, if the 10 year treasury goes to five and a half, it’s going to hurt tech multiples. Plain and simple. You know, you don’t pay as much for growth of higher rates.

 

That’s it. Like it’s like you have multiple compression. And so I think a lot of these really good names.

 

Their earnings growth should dampen the blow or beat that multiple compression. But if rates, if rates stabilize or go down slightly, we are off to the races. Right.

 

And so you got to ask yourself like, okay, so if rates are choppy until we until the marketplace can absorb this nine trillion of refinancing that’s coming from the US government this year. Like once once we get through that, regardless of what the Fed does. So if the Fed cuts 50 basis points this year or 75 basis points this year, this is still going to be a problem because you do not have the dealer inventory to take down nine trillion dollars worth of refinancing.

 

Now, that’s not nine trillion dollars of new debt. That’s that’s all the short term bond. So are so many bonds that have come due in the US have been refinanced with short term debt so that this year was an avalanche of materials.

 

So that’s all happening over the next 12 months. It’s an enormous amount of liquidity that needs to be taken down by the system. And so it will create temporary shocks in rates.

 

And when rates go up, when the 10 year goes out, 25 basis points historically and most likely multiples come down for technology stocks, which stinks if you’re a technology investor, but I will gladly ride this wave because I know it’s on the other side. The other piece of news that we need to discuss is TikTok is shutting down this week. TikTok plans to shut its app for US sellers or users rather on Sunday when a federal ban on the social media app could come into effect unless the Supreme Court moves to block it.

 

The outcome of the shutdown would be different from that mandated by the law. The law would mandate a ban only on new TikTok downloads or Apple on Apple or Google App Store as well existing users could continue using it for some time. So it’s not like the app is going to disappear.

 

We just can’t get updates. But, you know, is this good news for a meta and other social media companies or no impact at all? You know, if this ended up, if they end up taking this down the US, it’s massive for meta. It’s massive.

 

And so, like, you got to ask yourself, like, knowing that data white’s buddy buddy with Trump and that Mark Zuckerberg has become a MMA fanatic and trained in Jiu-Jitsu every day. Is this why? Right? Like, does he want to cozy up? Because, you know, in Trump 1.0 is all about banning TikTok. Trump 2.0 wants the competition for meta.

 

Maybe he’s resigned to the fact that, like, bike dance already has all our information. So it’s not going to get any worse from here. Here’s the thing.

 

Meta has been accused, rightly or wrongly, accused of being more pro-left-wing in the past, assisting the Biden administration and taking down, you know, information or posts about the pandemic, for example, which Mark Zuckerberg later admitted that he regrets doing. But anyway, the argument here is why would Trump allow this ban on TikTok? Wouldn’t he want more competition for these tech companies, which have been traditionally more liberal in their leanings anyway? Yeah, he’s publicly said that he doesn’t want TikTok shutdown. So, I mean, this is something to watch.

 

I am not a TikTok user. So I don’t, I have no endearment to the platform for multiple reasons. Mostly because I’m just not cool.

 

But this is- You’re pretty cool, Mike. You don’t need to be on TikTok to be cool. You’re pretty cool.

 

But, like, it’s really interesting to see these dynamics play out. And, like, look, I am not a huge Mark Zuckerberg fan, but, you know, I can tell you from experience, like someone that does Jiu Jitsu every day, it does turn you into a libertarian. Well, like, I’ve seen a lot of left-wing people come in and become libertarians very quickly once they start trading Jiu Jitsu.

 

So maybe he has changed his leanings, but you also got to remember, you know, the blame for Trump winning in 2016 was largely placed on Facebook. And so I don’t know the threats that they got, they didn’t get behind the scenes telling Mark Zuckerberg he’s going to go to jail. I’d imagine they’ve broken who knows how many laws in the U.S. And, you know, you got to play the game if you own a tech company that’s that big.

 

So, look, you know, if they do end up banning it, that’s very bullish for meta. If they don’t end up banning it, it’ll be interesting to see how they play out because I guess they’re not going to- they’re not going to be a- there’s not going to be a for sale. Like the Chinese Communist Party would rather just take their ball and go home instead of selling it.

 

So, but this interesting drama to play out, but like, like I just going back to my earlier point, meta is the single greatest advertising platform ever created. Okay. And if you think about how much information they have from you about you, all the times they’ve looked at every single thing else in your phone, besides the time you spent on the rap.

 

Okay, they’re buying as many NVIDIA GPUs they can get their hands on because to sort through this data and to make sense of it takes an unbelievable amount of compute power that compute power is only going to need to be more over time because all these things are increasing on an exponential basis that, look, once rates- rates stabilize, we are off to the races. Okay, and rates are not going to jump higher this year because inflation gets out of control because people lack faith in the U.S. dollar. It’s because $9 trillion is a lot of bonds to swallow for the system.

 

And so, once we get through that, I believe we’re off to the races. The notion that rates are going to be a lot higher, is that based on the fact that you don’t think inflation is going to get out of control of that assumption you’re making? I mean, what do you say to your hands? Yeah, look, I don’t know that we get down to 2%. I believe we’re on our way there.

 

I don’t know when we get there. I don’t know how bumpy it is. I do not believe that inflation is re-accelerating in any sort of significant matter.

 

And like this inflation data, it shouldn’t be in a straight line. It should be very choppy, right? Historically, prior to the area of quantitative easing, prior to post 2008, these numbers tend to be all over the place, right? As they should be because the economy does not move in these straight trend lines, right? It should be bumpy, right? It should be a little bit erratic. In terms of temporary phenomenon, who knows what these wildfires are going to do to our economy and how big a deal that’s going to be? That in my mind is a net negative, not something insurmountable, but how is that going to affect building materials, doing everything else down that rabbit hole? Well, here’s a 10 here.

 

Here’s a 10 here, like huge move downwards today from 4.77, now the way down 4.65 on the inflation data release that we talked about earlier. I wonder though, Mike, whether or not a 10-year could move up later on just based on higher growth data, jobs numbers, for example, or, you know, GDP surprises to the upside, whatever the case may be, even if inflation stays muted, in other words, could the 10-year move up based on growth alone and not inflation expectations? Yeah, we’d have to, like, expectations for GDP growth would really have to increase considerably. Okay.

 

Right? I think what’s moving the 10-year at the moment is pending issuance, right? And we don’t know how this is going to play out. You’ve got a new Treasury Secretary coming in. This is an unknown.

 

No one’s ever trying to issue $9 trillion of debt in a single year. So that to me, and that’s going to create bond volatility. For a time being, this avalanche of debt refinancing ends in January next year.

 

I suspect we will find a home and settle before then. So whether that’s December, whether that’s September, we will find out. Again, we don’t know because the amount of issuance coming in.

 

But the bond market is going to stabilize ahead of the end of the issuance. Okay. And then I think, as you start to see that stabilization is when you start to see equities take off.

 

Because if we’re having a ton of volatility, you’re going to have some pretty good earnings growth, especially in the top 10 names, and the stock prices may go nowhere. So that means they’re much cheaper the way that NVIDIA is multiple in the last six months on a full basis has gone from just around 40 to sub 30, right? Just pure multiple compression. And the way that I look at it, it’s like you’re pulling on a rubber band.

 

You just got to be able to ride these waves. Let’s finish off on one idea for a stock that we haven’t talked about yet. Something that you are following, something that you like all mobile eye autonomous driving.

 

So you basically only got a few players in the space. So mobile eye stock a little over a year ago is like 40, 50 bucks. Now it’s at 16.

 

They were at CES and we’re hoping for a new announcement. But outside of Tesla and Waymo, which is Google, you have no other software provider that can give you level three autonomous driving. And so autonomous driving will start as people that have a 30, 40, 50 minute commute on the highway, just putting it on a cruise control and being able to look at the phone the whole time.

 

Okay. And then from there, it will graduate to people letting it drive them from A to B. And then at a certain point, there’ll be no steering wheel in the car. Okay.

 

The only independent software company that has technology can do it is mobile eye. They have a deal with VW already. The expectation was for them at CES last week to announce something with like GM, Ford or Honda or somebody else.

 

Okay. But when those announcements come in, like you have a very easy case for them to 10 extra revenue in the next five years. All right.

 

Very good. Mike, tell us when we can find your work. Okay.

 

Yeah. Michael Lee strategy.com. You can find me on LinkedIn. Michael Lee and Michael Lee strategy.

 

Think on Twitter. Mike Lee Strat. You can find me.

 

I’m out there. I got a YouTube channel where I put up a lot of my clips from other media. Feel free to reach out.

 

I love talking about the stuff. Absolutely. Well, I’ll have you on back again soon to talk about more marketability news.

 

Take care for now, Mike, and follow Michael Lee strategy down in the link below. Thank you so much for having me. Yeah.

 

Congratulations on all your success in your new gig, man. Thanks a lot, Mike. Appreciate it.

 

Thanks for watching. Don’t forget to like and subscribe.

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