Gold Nears the $3,000 Level Again (Uncut) 03-13-2025

Gold Nears the $3,000 Level Again

Commodities, generally speaking, are softer because of the fears of tariffs slowing the global economy down. However, those tariffs will be met if they become permanent with an increase in fiscal stimulus by global entities in order to fight the tariffs. Therefore, gold and silver are being bought in anticipation of this reaction.

Welcome to the Morning Markets and Metals with Vince Lancey, where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day. And now, here’s Vince. Good morning, I’m Vince Lancey.

This is the Morning Market Rundown, and I hope everyone’s doing well. Ten-year yields are $4.33, up one almost to the dollar, is $103.82, up 25. The S&P 500 is $55.76, down 16.

The VIX is $24.62, up 40-ish. Gold is $29.47, up 14, just a shot away. Silver is $33.11, probably being financed for the gold.

Copper is down a penny at $4.77. WTI is $67.31, down 47. Natural gas is $4.08, down a penny. Bitcoin is $82,900, down $6.50. Palladium, $9.41. Platinum, $9.74, down eight, down nine, and change and change.

Gold, silver below $90, $88.90-ish. Soy, corn, and wheat, $9.95, $4.54, $5.63. All three of them are up. In percentage terms, wheat’s up the most. Okay, so what are we going to talk about today? Well, I guess we’ll talk about gold, right? And silver.

All right, so $3,000 is just a shot away. That’s related to an accumulation pattern that I’ve been seeing for the last, ooh, two years, that it’s happening again. And we’ll look at a chart or two on that, along with some levels that I have.

But anyway, today we will be covering UBS and a UBS report and cap and trade markets that I’m seeing in charts. And in premium, we have a UBS essentially buying the dip in silver, copper, and oil, and staying the course in gold. All right, front page, why is J.P. Morgan’s gold vault next to the New York Feds? That’s a zero hedge classic post behind their paywall.

We explain some of that in context of this daisy chain concept, which has crept up in the silver community on X, of which I am a part, surrounding ETFs, surrounding shorting ETFs, and co-opting the metal from ETFs to satisfy physical delivery with regards to SLV, PSLV and the relative difficulty in doing that with PSLV, shorting the shares, I should say, and all the things related to that, which maybe we’ll do a post on another time. But just a shout out to those guys for doing that, because Bob Coleman and Semper Vigilante, whatever his name is, good guy. Anyway, that’s the thing that made me throw this post up again, because it’s all related to the daisy chain concept, which is a sub theme of the post.

Special all gold is monetary gold. That’s just a brain moment that I had that I think is relevant. J.P. Morgan had a report out on GDP being weaker because of frontloading of commodity.

I’m sorry, GDP being weaker because gold purchases, understanding it, implying that gold is an economic good. The point is that the government and the agencies that they use will define gold as non-monetary unless it’s in a very specific bar and format. The truth is all gold is monetary gold.

If you just give it a steam bath at Metalore over in Massachusetts, it’s monetary gold. And that’s what they’re doing. They’re bringing back gold for monetary purposes.

Gold, the gun bankers pretend they don’t need, but can’t live without. We have that out there at Scottsdale on their different title. We suggest you read it.

Okay, so discussion. UBS buys the dip in silver, copper, and oil. Title of their report is Trade Threats Mask a Long-Term Outlook.

That’s a commodity update. It’s about commodities in general, but they’re increasingly giving more and more time to precious metals. So let me read a little excerpt from that.

The steady rise of commodity prices from the start of the year has come to an abrupt halt. Growth uncertainty and commodity-specific factors, mainly on the grain side, have caused a price consolidation at a broad asset class level. We think tariff-induced risks, which seem to have less market impact, remain a short-term concern.

Now, you’ll notice as I’m saying this, if you’re a metals person, you’re like, I don’t see it. I don’t see it. I don’t see it.

Right, exactly. That’s where the whole front-loading concept comes in, or what I would call front-running. So they’re talking about commodities in general.

Oil has taken a hit, right? So oil falls under this category. So they continue. However, we remain positive on the commodity asset class.

We like crude oil for volatility selling strategies. That means sell put spreads or buy butterflies. They think the market’s in a range near a bottom.

Gold’s return outlook, they’re basically saying stay the course with gold, although limited in our base case, meaning they don’t think it’s going to go up much more, but they’re certainly not deconstructing with it. And its ability to adverse an asset in adverse times are still appealing to us. Silver should outperform gold alongside copper in our base case of a modest recovery in manufacturing activity.

Now, the whole report is, it’s not institutional, but it’s a very good report because, especially in the metals area, it goes through all the drivers without rehashing someone else’s work. They add insights to supply chain issues. There are supply chain issues, and that’s why prices are going up.

Trump tariffs, you would think, I’m paraphrasing them, you would think Trump’s tariffs would not have an effect on precious metals, but their word, ironically, they do. So I’m saying it’s not ironic, but that’s neither here nor there. They’re making the point that precious metals are not a consumed asset, and so there shouldn’t be front-running of precious metals for tariffs because they’re monetary.

And yet they are being front-loaded is the word they use. UK vault problems, without getting too specific, they’re frank that the UK is having problems doing its job emptying the vault. I guess precious metals are heavy, I hear.

Silver dynamics are more complicated. I think that’s an interesting comment. I’m going to throw a little light on that.

We like gold because of this, okay? Silver’s dynamics are more complicated, and silver’s dynamics are more complicated. That’s not a shade-throwing comment. What they’re saying is silver is largely an industrial metal, and therefore, if the trade tariffs, the front-running or front-loading, I should say, of commodities is over, silver should depress along with other economic assets that are tied to tariffs, right? Okay.

So if the economy slows down, silver demand will slow down. Okay. It’s more complicated because, and this kind of throws gold in there as well, because if tariffs become a big permanent thing, you know what’s going to happen? Bazookas are going to become a big permanent thing everywhere else.

So China, India, whatever, they’re just going to print more. They’re just going to be like, all right, fine. You’re going to make us want dollars more, then we’re going to just create more yuan.

That’s the reaction. You’re seeing that already. Tariffs beget fiscal and monetary stimulus overseas, fiscal mostly.

Capital controls get eased, what have you. And you’re going to see that. And it becomes a race where we’re exporting recession, right, or deflation, and they’re exporting inflation.

So if we win, it’s Goldilocks. If they win or the world loses, or the world’s going to lose anyway, probably, right? If it doesn’t work out the way, if everyone wins, right, if everyone wins, if we win and they win, you get stagflation, right? You get the price of things going up because China’s going, shit, I’ll just buy it anyway, right? And the dollar keeps going up because everyone goes, shit, I need more dollars. So you get stocks dropping, commodities reasserting themselves.

Anyway, long version of what I’m trying to say is that silver will take industrial hits, but will be supported by global monetary fiscal spending to compensate for tariffs. So we’re just in a Goldilocks era now. That’s really it.

It just doesn’t look at price, compared to gold, but it’s really getting there. All right, central bank purchases, there’s an update on that, and what have you. And there’s one of the charts, this is one of the charts showing that ETF inflows have increased.

Now, in the context of what’s going on right now with stocks selling off and gold rallying and silver also rallying and copper also rallying, the 60-40 portfolio is something that Jordan talks about a lot, but in general, we all are aware of the underperformance of gold and gold miners and silver and silver miners relative to stocks, whether it be stocks or the Mag 7 or the 60-40 portfolio. This could be the beginning of the real long secular change coming in to that. Every other correlation in the world has broken down, except stocks have outperformed.

So look at this chart. This is the flows of US money going into, well, European money too, going into the gold ETF, even as stocks are on the highs. So what happens if PPI today, which is due out in two minutes, is incredibly inflationary? I’m not saying it will be, but it’s incredibly inflationary, then all of a sudden the stagflation theme gets bigger, and every time stocks drop, people will buy a little bit more gold, people will buy a little bit, hopefully, they’ll buy a little bit more miners, and the whole rotation changes.

The next time up, stocks go up 3%, gold and silver go up 5%. So the 60-40 portfolio, we’re entering into the biggest risk of a stagflationary era since the 1970s, period, end of story. And if you don’t believe me, there’s a portfolio by Goldman Sachs out there.

It’s a stagflationary portfolio, and they put together these products for their clients. There’s demand for it, or they think it’s going to go up, they put it together. So they’re making a product, but they’re also making something that’s convenient to invest in.

The success of the product is based on how good they are picking the right equities. And when they pick the Trump basket, the Democrat basket versus the Republican basket, it moved like a perfect poll of the two candidates running for president. And since then, the Trump basket has sold off, right? So now you have a stagflationary basket.

So every time stagflation becomes a bigger concern, you’re going to see this. Tying it in with, again, Michael Hartnett, who said over several months, he said, be careful, heads up, the Max 7 is number one and gold is number two, basically. That’s what he keeps saying.

Tech stocks, gold. He goes, in the next rally, if you see leadership change, if you see gold outperform tech stocks in the next rally, then all bets are off for the stock market, and all bets are probably on for miners. Anyway, that on deck, CPI this week, PPI, and CPI is out right now.

You can watch the market while I’m looking at that. It looks like it’s gyrating a little bit. Let’s move on to the summary and final market check.

The summary is, commodities, generally speaking, are softer because of the fears of tariffs slowing the global economy down. However, those tariffs will be met if they become permanent with an increase in fiscal stimulus by global entities in order to fight the tariffs. Therefore, gold and silver are being bought in anticipation of this reaction.

Ultimately, if tariffs are permanent, gold will go up because it’ll just make people more nervous about sanctions, which lead to confiscation of wealth. Silver will follow suit because China keeps buying it, and they will stimulate even more to support the market. We’re in a stagflationary war.

We’re on the cusp of a major stagflation. That’s my opinion. All right, so let’s see.

31, gold is still up 12.13. Watch stocks and watch the dollar. Gold’s not going to key off the dollar. Silver’s going to key off of stocks, at least initially.

So while you’re looking at that, let me put this chart up. This is the gold chart for weeklies, and it feels like we’re in another one of those trapped, captured areas. Excuse me, I have an itch.

Anyway, over a period of years, I’ve observed when the gold market is capped, all those rectangles except one, I’m sure, as sure as I can be, that the Bank of International Settlements was involved in keeping a lid on it. It’s kind of like a circuit breaker, right? So you can’t see the years there, but in 2020, 2021, capped, and then look at the yellow arrow, right? 2022, second rectangle, that’s when the war started in Ukraine, Russia, capped, and then the sell-off continued because during that time, it was severe, but that was also when we started fighting inflation, right? 2023, in December of 20, is that December? Did I miss December? Okay, I missed one of my rectangles. In 2023, in the mid part, capped, but I’m not going to stick by that one.

I might have drawn that in error. I mean this one, this one right here. In December 2023, that’s BIS, capped sideways, and then it rallies in 2024, starting in March.

Capped sideways, capped sideways. Now, it’s easy to draw tops and arrows, but the reason these are important to me, except for this one, that’s there, but I don’t know if that’s BIS. This is BIS.

The market gets capped. People get the message, uh-uh, you’re not going above here for a while, and then you get a long yellow arrow. You get a long yellow arrow.

You get a shorter yellow arrow. You get a shorter yellow arrow. You get a really short yellow arrow.

It’s steep, but it’s really short. That last, second-to-last one, that’s the election. And now here we are, knocking, you know, at 3,000.

Really short, and retesting it. So, this is what you’re looking at. That’s silver.

Let’s bring gold up. You’re looking at, yet again, capped, right? Capped, and now we’re getting back up to the high and retesting it way too soon for this market to be dying. You know, it’s just like, after the election, this was supposed to stop happening after the election, okay? This is the election.

No more of that shit after the election, and yet here we are doing it again. Silver, I’m even more constructive on. I don’t have anything spectrally long yet, but you know, there’s your trend.

There’s your trend. Now it’s basically, it’s almost back on trend, but this, and this, and this are the same type of buyer. Which type? I don’t know, but it’s the same type of buyer.

There you go. I mean, look, there’s an eight, comes off at eight, comes up. No nines, though.

No nines, right? So, let’s see. We have another eight right now on a daily. All right.

I want to throw some, let me put all the markets up so you can look at that while we’re assessing this. All right. So, gold’s giving back some gains.

I don’t know what the data is, but let me check right now. Okay. PPI came in very cool.

So, it was expected, I think, at 0.3 per month, and it came in at 0.0, and I haven’t drilled down on the data yet, but that’s very cool. So, that should be extremely constructive for stocks, okay? And what are stocks doing? I’ll just pop that bigger again for you. On an hourly basis, a little bit of, right? Nowhere.

What’s gold doing? Nowhere. A little bit lower, off the highs from that, which is kind of telling. If PPI is really soft, and it’s not as important as CPI in terms of, you know, bang for the buck and what traders and investors look at, but it’s actually more important.

It tells me that the trend in CPI will continue lower. It tells me that the trend will continue lower because lower oil’s in the pipeline. PPI’s like the pipeline.

And over the next several months, you’re going to see CPI drop unless you see something that we’re not aware of. So, why are markets not stronger? Because markets really don’t give a shit about inflation right now. They care about recession and economic slowdowns.

And they’re pretty much of the opinion that unless the economy really gets bad, Powell’s not going to ease. You know, the Trump put is gone, okay? So, Powell and Trump aren’t buddies. They’re not sharing a meal anytime soon.

And as a result, low inflation is not bullish for stocks as much because Powell’s not going to lower rates, right? So, it looks to me like the whole market is geared for a sell-off stocks. The whole market is looking forward to another stagflationary sell-off, but they’re looking at the stagnation side of it, the recessionary side. All right, I’m Vince.

Have a great day. See you tomorrow. Well, thank you to Vince for this morning’s report.

Sure hope you enjoyed that one at home. And I will just say I sure enjoy watching Vince myself and darn grateful that it’s worked out with this setup that we have here. And glad to have all of you joining us every day.

And hopefully it’s been helpful along your journey as we watch the metals continue to rally and certainly started last year and continuing on. And before we wrap up, I would just like to thank Fortuna Mining, who was our proud sponsor of today’s show. And Fortuna actually just released their earnings last week and they’re actually up about 25% over the past week.

And they did have news out this week because they updated their mineral reserves and mineral resources estimate, which included inferred mineral resources of 2.2 million gold equivalent ounces, measured and indicated resources exclusive of reserves of 1.5 million gold equivalent ounces, which were increases of 29 and 36 percent, which were the result of infill drilling and the discovery of a new inferred resource that represents 741,000 gold equivalent ounces, proven improbable came in at 2.7 million gold equivalent ounces, which was down 11% on the year, although the driver for that was the production that they had in 2024, which was record production for them. And also that depletion offset by the upgrading of resources to reserves representing 204,000 gold equivalent ounces. Although fortunately, in terms of finding some more gold out there, Fortuna had some more news today as they have intersected 7.2 grams per ton gold over 31.5 meters at their Kingfisher prospect in the Subwayla mine.

And they also mentioned that the Sunbird deposit, which is really one of the most promising ones they have there, and they are getting closer towards mining and they’re the deep exploration drilling, tested the southern extent and has returned to excellent results, including 4.3 grams per ton gold over a true width of 23.1 meters. So I will leave the link to both of these in the description field below. And for a little more color on the update to the mineral reserves and mineral resources estimate, well, that one is coming your way now.

Please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only. Please contact your financial advisor before making any decisions and thanks for watching.