Gold’s Next Move: All-Time Highs or Collapse? (Uncut) 03-16-2025

Gold’s Next Move: All-Time Highs or Collapse?

Gold price forecasts have been revised upward, and the excitement in the market is palpable. Gold’s performance has been nothing short of remarkable, doubling the returns of the S&P 500 and drawing investors in from all corners. But while some celebrate the rally, others are beginning to raise questions.

Are we nearing the peak of the current gold cycle? Or is this just the beginning of a push past the $3,000 mark? And what does this mean for silver? If you want to hear stories about gold and silver that no one else is telling, take a second to hit the subscribe button. Your support helps us bring you fresh insights every week. Thank you.

The past few months have been a whirlwind. With Donald Trump’s re-election now in the rearview mirror, the geopolitical landscape is shifting fast. A new trade war is brewing, this time involving Mexico, Canada, China, and potentially Europe.

A fresh round of tariffs and countermeasures is rattling global markets, weighing on the U.S. dollar, and pushing gold prices higher. Meanwhile, the world’s conflicts are taking a new turn. Trump is pushing for peace talks in Ukraine and working toward a swift resolution to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

If Russian assets are desanctioned, it could spell the end of Russia’s reliance on gold to stabilize its economy. That alone could reduce safe-haven demand. But there’s another possibility.

If Russia re-enters the gold market as an aggressive buyer, demand could surge, supported by a player willing to pay almost any price. This rearrangement of the geopolitical landscape comes with a price that’s less than obvious. As change rolls across the world and old alliances are tested, markets can react in unpredictable ways.

Gold doesn’t just rise and fall on its own. It competes for capital. When markets panic, investors seek shelter.

But they have choices. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and even oil can act as safe havens, each rising or falling based on the same global events that drive gold. The key question isn’t just whether gold will keep climbing, but whether its competitors will hold it back or propel it even higher.

On March 3rd, President Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico that had been delayed would be enacted without delay the next day. He imposed tariffs on China at the same time. The expected outcome was clear, a stronger dollar and weaker gold and silver, just like we saw during the trade war in Trump’s first term.

But this time, the market didn’t follow the old playbook. Instead of rallying, the dollar softened, and gold and silver pushed higher. What’s different this time is the expectation that these broader tariffs will create additional inflationary pressures on American consumers and hinder the growth of the U.S. economy, With an expectation of economic pain in the near term, gold and silver become more attractive safe haven investments.

It also has the potential to accelerate the de-dollarization trend. As trade tensions push countries to seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar for global transactions, demand for gold as a neutral reserve asset could rise. If key trading partners, many of whom traditionally buy and hold U.S. debt, see tariffs as a reason to reduce their exposure to treasuries, the dollar’s dominance could erode.

For some nations, shifting reserves away from U.S. assets isn’t just an economic decision. It’s a form of political retaliation. And when gold’s biggest competitor weakens, gold itself tends to strengthen.

Weakening economic data is clashing with worrisome inflation numbers, leaving the Federal Reserve’s next move uncertain. Earlier this year, markets expected no rate cuts in 2025. Now, Fed watchers are predicting three or more by December, fueling the bull case for gold, as lower rates tend to weaken the dollar and boost demand for hard assets.

These shifts in Fed expectations and the geopolitical landscape have led analysts to revise their gold forecasts upward, raising both the estimated average and peak price for 2025. With inflation concerns lingering and central banks continuing to accumulate gold, most analysts expect the metal to breach $3,000 an ounce for the first time in history. As the bull case strengthens, so does the media hype.

Headlines like, But nothing in life is guaranteed, and markets that are as reactive as gold and silver can be especially difficult to read. All this excitement reminds us of some advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett. To be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

Are we truly about to break through the $3,000 an ounce ceiling on gold, brushing aside a major psychological barrier where investors are likely to take profit and push gold into uncharted territory? Or are we approaching a correction? Technical analysis of past gold rallies reveals a concerning pattern. When gold’s price stretches too far above its 200-day moving average, it has historically signaled the final stage of a bull run. Right now, we’re seeing that same separation at levels that, in the past, have foreshadowed steep corrections.

We’re within striking distance of $3,000 an ounce, but history offers a cautionary tale. Just look at 2011, when gold surged toward $2,000 before collapsing and taking nearly a decade to recover. But gold isn’t the only metal to watch.

Silver has a history of making explosive moves right before a major gold rally peaks. And if history repeats, a sudden silver breakout could be the final warning sign. We saw this in 2011.

Gold was pushing toward $2,000 an ounce, and just as excitement peaked, silver went parabolic, surging to nearly $50 an ounce. It looked like silver was finally playing catch up, but in reality, it was the last gasp before the entire precious metals market collapsed. So far, silver hasn’t made that kind of move yet, but if it does, if we see silver suddenly explode higher while gold hovers near $3,000, it could be a sign that the cycle is nearing exhaustion once again.

Gold’s momentum is undeniable, and the arguments for new all-time highs are strong. But history warns us that when excitement peaks, risk is never far behind. If silver makes a sudden move higher, it could be the final confirmation or the last warning before a reversal.

The next few months will decide whether gold cements itself above $3,000 or if we see a repeat of past cycles where rallies and just-as-mainstream hype reaches its peak. Are we witnessing history in the making, or are we about to see another painful lesson in market euphoria? Either way, we’ll be watching closely. If you want to stay ahead of these moves, make sure to subscribe.

And let us know in the comments, are you buying gold here, or do you think we’re nearing the top? That’s all we have for you today. Please remember to like, subscribe, and share with a friend. Thanks for watching, and we’ll see you next time.