Are The Gold & Silver Miners Ever Going To Outperform The Metals… (Uncut) 03-05-2025

Michael Oliver: Are The Gold & Silver Miners Ever Going To Outperform The Metals…

That means miners will be triple better place to be than gold is in the coming move so we’re highly focused on what’s going on here in the miners on a relative basis because it’s telling us this is an investment grade base it’s spent 10 years proving to you that it isn’t going lower and it has technicals to justify a huge advance so we think this is the place to be welcome to the morning markets and medals with Vince Lany where each morning Vince brings you the financial and press medals news get

you ready for your day and now here is Vince all right I I want these guys to ask you some questions but uh they’re going to ask you about minors I’m not but I want to ask you one Equity question because you said something in that interview with Alice there that made me kind of pay attention and let me find that question I have over here you listen to how formal this question is you recently alluded to a kind of structural hell beneath in stocks where you looked beyond Nvidia and mag 7 referring to Financial

what do you see now reason I’m going to put up what I see because you made me kind of look at this and I went oh look at that’s the XLF plotted against gold I went I went and by the way we are very big on correlations here which is not technical but it’s related to technicals and the point being is that Gold’s losses were financials gains I like Fiat I hate gold I like I hate Fiat I like gold but then in the svb era uh it became like okay I’m going to like financials again but I’m going to buy a little gold almost like gold is

the new Bond Market which gold used to be the old bond market so that was me uh saying you know what there’s more to this financial stuff that meets the that’s how we look at my question is how do you look at XLF uh and what is it about this horrible structure that you see possibly underneath that is giving that’s giving X LF is for the last couple weeks has gone up okay it feels very funny to me now Black Rock by the way has gone down that hit a bounce on Friday but it’s in techn it’s a component of XLF it’s with 20 okay top

15 or so and it’s the biggest asset manager in the world now I’m not picking on Black Rock because frankly you can take any of the top 10 or 20 symbols within XLF broker dealers uh Brokers Banks um insurance companies Etc and they all have vulnerable what we call quarterly momentum Trend structures when you look at this price chart on XLF looks great what’s what’s wrong you had a three-week pause and you punched out a new high this week despite the S&P and the NASDAQ having they’re down on the month they’re down on the year in fact

S&P is only up a percent on the year nasdaq’s down the year what’s going on with the financials first off I think they’re being boosted by that t-bond rally they think oh boy lower rates on the long end problem is errors have been committed and that t-bond rally is not good for you it’s a sign of money starting to Flow Away from the stock market okay right as it did in 2007 as it did in 2000 t- bonds went up or stocks went down okay that’s right so but it almost feels like somebody’s supporting this sector pardon me saying

that I am not a conspiracy guy uh you know if I were the fed this is the sector I’d be defending you know they buy ETFs and I’m not saying they’ve done it they did back in the covid period they bought ETF ETFs were I want interrupt you a second ETFs were not created but were encouraged because it allowed them to centralize behavior back in 1987 and 199 after the flash crash like we need more ETFs so we can get so we can fix this stuff faster yeah that’s right but when you look at the price chart here I suggest that you take this

XLF chart and go find an 87 chart of the S&P and look at where it was in August September it looked just like this it looks super price was at new high oh it did congested up there you see there’s like four weeks a month of congestion there I think this is a weekly correct yeah yeah that that that was that was actually a monthly oh this is a monthly in okay but I’m gonna find your stock chart so you can do your parallel it doesn’t matter this uh this is shown that yes we punched up to a new high

here this month but it’s been sold into for three months prior and so it plateaued now right why were they selling it quite often when you see an acceleration like this in a market where it goes vertical like a bar of soap okay right and then suddenly you see this distribution Zone it means somebody says I’m out I don’t want it anymore okay but it rarely ever tops that way you can’t top with the crew cut usually you have to pierce it right that’s the Trap because people say Oh see it’s a breakout for a whole new leg okay I’m

going to make this statement now there’s specific momentum numbers that we’re watching in fact it’ll be included in our weekend report on XLF and they’re not far below you by the way a couple percent below where you are now you start to come into big momentum trouble but even the price chart says look I broke out over this ceiling don’t get back below that price ceiling if you do I bet it’s an abort of a false breakout and the unwinding process will commence at that point because without even taking out the lows you see of the

last four bars there the range lows where it’s stalled I’ll blow momentum structures very clear long-term momentum structures quarterly momentum for example without even taking out the lows of the last four months just getting back into that range at that point suddenly you’ll see the financials join in with the stock market Market uh despite their recent Joy uh and black rocks one we’re particularly watching because the lows we’ve recently made you look on price of the Black Rock stock there the recent lows have done what

they pull back on top of the high of several years ago the high back there in the whatever you know going back there yeah that high there they pull back they bought it twice on top of those highs right right right okay last month and again this month we’re saying is you better not get back below those highs you better not soften up again and drop back below the recent lows because it’s not only taking out the old high breaking the support that everybody is buying into right qu but quarterly momentum is blowing a

structure that goes back to 2022 you can’t draw a line from the 2022 low up that connects with the recent lows it doesn’t you can’t draw it but on momentum you can so that we made in 200 22 you know the big drop if you try to draw a line through that low and the next low it doesn’t even intersect anywhere near where current reality is right yeah it’s way down there but momentum says you’re sitting on that line right right right right momentum chart yeah that’s key that’s key it’s kind of like it’s not kind of like

anything I I want to make I don’t want to analogize it but momentum is like okay we’ve got a lot further to go until we get to this lining ignore that line however if you take this price action and you weigh it with momentum or weigh it with volume uh not to diminish momentum but you weigh it with something that says where the structure the price action is higher with weaker strength so it’s like a macd I guess might give you something similar to that but you’re saying that in terms of there’s a similar

structural momentum except that you’re sitting on it when you run a and by the way the last High you see on price there the recent surge it took out the high 2021 or 2022 uh is not making a new high on momentum so price has made a new high beating its chest and momentum is making a lower high so is that intermediate shortterm or long term long term oh wow it’s warning you that hey what you’re seeing on Price is a lot of Chess beating you better not the least way break that price chart because when you

do even just back below back down to the recent lows there setting on top of the old highs momentum says you blew the structure this support doesn’t matter yeah that’s what it’s a price game they’re playing a price game and they played it twice now and they got a little rally on Friday that’s why that red candle is a little bit off the low there right the end of the month it closed a bit off the low they bought it there the same level they bought it last month they got a little bounce still a bad looking month if you look at it it’s

a big red month but you go back through that line again on price I’m telling you it’s not merely a price violation it’s a multi-year momentum Trend structure right right would correct not a good idea for the biggest asset manager in the world who is also heavily connected to bitcoin you know I know they really have tied themselves to bitcoin rightfully or not so would it be correct to say this and I think it is but I I want to say for everyone as well this High has a new high here but this High

did not have a new high in momentum here yes that’s right yeah and the trend uh and when we go out to things like annual trend of the stock market we measure it against its three-year average and so forth uh there’s a structure below that says you better not break the quarterly structure which is we’ve already broke it the S&P the Sinex and Nick which says likely in the next handful of months you’re going deep okay we waiting on the NASDAQ because it’s the leader it’s gone up twice as much three more than twice as much as

the S&P and it will go down more but it’s toying with our structure but when that breaks there’s also an annual momentum structure and for the SNP if it goes back and tries to play this game that black rock is doing sitting back on prior highs well what’s the prior high in the S&P go back to 2022 and it was around 4700 right okay that’s not a huge drop that’s a 20% drop off the highs okay it’s not a crack cash okay if you break the quarterly momentum on the US Stock Market now NASDAQ we need and you drop

down and sit on top of that old high on the S&P at 4700 a lot of price guys will say hey boy it’s a buy okay we admit that you’ll probably find some support there there’s a problem though on annual momentum you’re sitting on a triple bottom meaning the 2022 low on annual momentum dropped to the threeyear average and didn’t close here’s the S&P on a month S&P now yeah the 2023 low also closed just barely above the three-year average you can’t see it on price here and if you go to 4700 which is to say go back to that high in 2022

and you’ll notice there’s a high up in the summer of 2023 also where you got up near that level and backed off you drop back to that 4700 Zone and try to hold there what you’re doing is you’re sitting on a triple bottom on annual momentum That You Don’t See at all on the price chart triple bottoms rarely hold okay so if you break quarterly and you go to the 4700 level yeah you might get a bounce there but it’s a sucker bounce because if you ever break back below that high in 2022 you’re crashing through a floor an

annual momentum is a triple bottom at the zero line you know when you see the o Ator it’s hit it it’s hit it and you’re back on it all you get to do is go to 4700 zone right and you’re there again it will not ultimately hold it when that breaks it’s tabular Raza I don’t know where we’re going but that’s when the real blood will flow but right now I think the vulnerability for the stock market is probably a 20% variety other words not a crash and it might take a couple months so it’s not going to be oh

my God jumping off the cliff stuff you know with you get maximum Panic by the public yeah you’ll unnerve a lot of folks but it’s not going to be a crash event I don’t think I think you’re going to find support around that old high but don’t trust it lasting right trade it like a swing Trader not like a person who married to the idea yeah no I would do that getting back to that old high is extremely bearish for the long term but it’s a bounce point and and therefore the gold people who think oh my God if the stock

market drops we’ll go to hell no that first off that’s not a truism if you go back through history it is simply not true we’re proving that in the weekend report with lots of on the biggest moves it doesn’t work that way on the small way yeah and and that’s that’s the point you know like like in The Wiggles and Waggles people look at correlations they look at oh stocks are weaker I’m going to sell my gold to to to buy well we’re not in that era anymore you know it’s the bubble there are times you are and

there are times you’re not but in the real big moves in Gold you’re not right and uh we show that in the weekend report where there’s periods like in 2007 prior to the top there were up waves and down waves minor and golden S&P that seemed to look oh they’re in sync right and all of a sudden when the S&P had its first little drop from a October high of seven down to like November of 2007 gold had a little drop too and then S&P bounced go bounced then the S&P had a pretty serious drop of 20% Dimension off its highs into early 2008

during that time gold swar so there was a total divorce so when you looked at the week to week action during 2007 it’s oh look they’re in sync and all of a sudden when it really counted totally opposite you know they they diverge because when there’s a crisis you’re not going to park your money in in in different stocks which is what everyone does when they can okay I I am uh well I I wanted to ask you about um I wanted to zoom out a little bit and ask you about you know and I think you’ve kind of answered it

is there a historic parallel that most resembles what you think could be in our future markets and otherwise and you know that’s that’s like one of these pictures you know what I mean um I don’t think there’s an historic parallel in markets at least not going back to you know to the early 1900s even I think so you you’re looking at this as possibly on side uh even bigger many many many assets side many things change I think you’re seeing political change and I don’t mean just mean that Trump is sort

of an insurrectionist to the American political tradition okay fine yes he is uh but even Argentina you know used to be the seventh largest economy in the world you know 50 60 years ago then it turned into a third world back you know backward country socialist parties vying for each other for decades didn’t matter which one one it would just gr growing socialism the country collapsed economically and then this guy named Javier Malay who declares himself to be an anarco capitalist fine with me I wrote a

book on it 50 years that’s right that’s right but he he comes in and starts to dismantle government and all of a sudden rental prices cost of housing of people down there who couldn’t afford it has collapsed to levels where suddenly they can afford it and uh I hope he’s got good bodyguards because the institutional state is down there probably doesn’t like him but these these type of events will pop up and they’re I think all part of this unraveling Matrix of right of economic political trends that are correlated and

when certain things come undone then also certain Concepts Come Undone right institutions also say uhuh ain’t working gone you know and it’s not like an organized thing it’s sort of spontaneous well that’s your that’s your comment about the uh Chapter 3 of Atlas Shrugged you know it’s a littleit yeah yeah where all of a sudden you see this in the first two-thirds of the book it’s you can see the reasons why shit’s going to happen Okay and all of a sudden it happens in part three where things come

unraveled and Chaos unfolds and it’s because things weren’t right in the first place right and I’m not arguing you know you should support this guy or that I’m just saying these things are going to happen because because if in fact there have been errors over the decades terms of what government does it’s spending how it’s influenced market pricing not just here but elsewhere uh if that comes undone all kinds of things will come undone too not just market prices right Notions of of tradition standards of behavior gone okay right

and in this process what’s going to rise the one thing that’s always been there it’s always been the place to be gold right you know and already you’re seeing some governments saying hey you know we want to accumulate that stuff because ultimately that’s where we’re going to be they smell something they might quite understand it but they they sort of sense it uh and I think that’s where we’re headed in this crisis of a bubble breaking will help speed things up yeah uh thank you very much I appreciate that

there’s something I’d like to add uh cuz you brought up anarch capitalism um I was fortunate enough before he died to have some Twitter correspondence with David Graber and I was I’m a fan of his you know uh he’s an anarchist he’s not a capitalist um but we were talking about money and he seems to be you know he’s he’s basically by training he was a uh Anthropologist and he talked about although he’s not in your boat on he’s not in our boat capitalist style uh he talked about did you know if you go back

through time money has about 70 years I’m sorry centuries centuries of where it goes soft and hard and he was talking about debt it’s his 5,000 years it’s his debt book basically says he basically says we just this is before he died right 2014 he said we just entered a multi-century cycle of um of soft money or debt as money and we’re just and he’s not like a gold bug he wasn’t a gold bug he didn’t couldn’t care less he said ‘we’re in the process of going into an era for hard money whether it be the

point is debt as money is not working yes lived itself ideologically it worked for a period you know post World War II and we did that to keep everyone it seemed to yeah yeah exactly but now but now but now it’s but now it’s it’s it’s outlived its usefulness and now we’re in this cycle of hard money this is before he wasn’t talking about Bitcoin he wasn’t an advocate for anything and I I paid attention to that this is before or gold starter round anyway I think it kind of corroborates or Echoes your

point about there’s a there’s a a cyclical nature and at inflection points you get turmoil and that turmoil is societal in the sense that ideologies don’t work and and U and uh well there will be you personal pain you know imagine let’s say the stock market does what I think and the first drop is only 20% okay you’re an average American and you’ve got a retirement account or a trading account or whatever but let’s say it’s a retirement account you’re you’re looking forward to it and fortunately there’s a a bit a pile of

money there oh boy you know it’s a safety waiting for you there right all of a sudden it sheds 20% yeah whoa you know the whole year is gone in you know a couple months past year right and all of a sudden you don’t have anything to smile about anymore that was the main thing you could smile about when you looked at the Horizon of life you know the mortgage rates were terrific uh your debt the credit card debt is rising uh God I have to pay the taxes again this year etc etc and all of a sudden the one thing makes you smile

goes down 20% that’s right everything everything over the last 15 20 years has like it’s slowly everything is getting peeled off of the things that make us happy and all that’s left is the 401K and we’re completely vested in the 401K that can’t go to it’s like that’s the only thing left you know and if that cracks what happens to emotion at that point emotion suddenly becomes a factor right now it’s not really a factor because everybody’s still smiling right and then all of a sudden everybody’s not

smiling and then they they hearken back and say oh God I remember that last stock market break I got laid off that’s right or I lost four clients or whatever uh and so all of a sudden I think that stock bubble is not it’s technically important for itself but also for fed Central Bank policy going forward more monetary excess and for human emotion and sense of 52 card pickup the benefactor as always gold gold yeah and silver in the miners and silver and silver uh okay so so uh I W to I have two sections of

questions hold on one second I’m going to okay there’s a lot of questions on miners uh on their perceived under performance uh real and imagined right uh relative to Gold even even though they have been playing some catchup they’re doing some well now uh and one of the questions that I had and and and indirectly other people have asked is like you know what’s going on with Miners And so and so Michael was nice enough to share a chart with us uh that makes his case and solidifies his opinion and I think will be very helpful

for our own assessment of the situation Michael would you mind sure uh what you’re looking at here every month what we do is divide the price of the X indexes which is the Philadelphia gold and silver miners index not bullion okay it’s been around since the 1980s unlike let’s say GDX ETF it’s only been around since 2006 so we can look pretty far back here go back to the mid 1980s and the spread relationship between X and gold mean divide the price of X into an ounce of gold price and you get a percent so during all that decades from

80s 90s to 2008 X lived in a Range that had lows about 17.5% meaning when it got down to 17 and a half% of the price of gold that was support okay and its upper end was up near 35% so it lived in this zone of action and finally broke it in 2008 2009 actually broke before gold made its top in 2011 but anyway the spread lived in that zone okay that’s the value of minor to Gold okay then it collapsed okay you see the red arrow and that’s December of 2015 well that happened to also be the bare price low in gold and the miners when

they made their bare low in December of that year at that point the spread turned up it shot up pretty big into 2016 and 17 meaning the miners suddenly surged upside in performance versus gold but still way down there at very low levels okay and then it dropped back again in 2020 and it went back up in 2021 and came back down recently but basically it’s lived in this range for a decade okay at very low levels but notice this that current reading over there on the right is above 5% like five and a half percent X is to the price of

gold not at the top of the range it’s right about in the middle of that range but compare it to the low which is 4% you said big deal well actually it is you go back and look at the low in GD uh X index then it was 45 bucks okay at the 2015 low right now it’s just below 160 okay far greater percent gain in XU than gold has had from its 2015 low which was 1050 to its current price 28.50 it’s it’s actually the X has out formed gold since that bare low okay and right now it’s about in the middle of

the decade range now there’s a downtrend structure on this spread it’s a three-point downtrend line and recent action of the last year or so since 2023 has bumped and bumped that line and edged out above it now there’s also some other lines we examine this a little more closely that have not broken out above but that action there we Define as the last probe toward the end of that the lower end of that range and now it’s up ticking again it’s actually edged out above this multi- decade downtrend and we think it’s about to

turn up to assault the top end again now even just getting to the top end which is up around 8 or so percent again you’re five and a half percent that’s still pretty big jump that’s like buying a stock at five and a half and it goes to eight okay do the math but we think the next move is going to go up and assault and take out the top of that range now we’re measuring that via the spread action day-to-day even and momentum of the spread which is not shown here this is just price versus price this is

effectively a price chart right but you can see that miners are cheap and have been cheap since 2015 though they’re higher than they were then relative to Gold so they’ve actually beat gold over the last 10 years tell somebody that who’s in the gold investment side right well you’re kidding me okay it’s a fact okay now admittedly when you look at a price chart and you see the high in X that occurred in 2020 2021 and see the high in GDX when GDX got up the the gold ETF got up to uh 45 they’re still contained below those

price highs so gold is out above the price high that were in 2020 you know above 2,000 bucks it’s a Well out above them but they’re not and yet their spread is still better than it was in 2015 now what we’re arguing is that when this spread upticks out of this base once you break out treat this as a price chart it is where’s resistance well look at the red line that the resistance is up there around 177% meaning where that rally high was in 2009 and failed underneath the other lows so that red horizontal up there

there is where major resistance is well goodness gracious if you go to five from 5.2% up to 17 a 12 that’s a triple meaning you break this spread out of this basing action and move it up even just halfway back to its old highs and bump the underside of that multi-decade floor and fail okay that’s still a tripling in the price of miners relative to Gold we think that’s about to occur it’s occurring late in this bull Trend in Gold Gold’s already been going up for nine plus years remember the other one

went up from 2000 to 2011 11 years so it can easily go further even just to replicate that but we think this next phase in the gold advance and gold will be going up during this time it’s not that minders will be holding steady gold going down that’s not the way it works when this spread goes up it says simply the miners are beating gold and so gold if you go up three times from the current level uh that means miners will be triple better place to be than gold is in the coming move so we’re highly

focused on what’s going on here in the miners on a relative basis because it’s telling us this is an investment grade base it’s spent 10 years proving to you that it isn’t going lower and it has technicals to justify a huge advance so we think this is the place to be that’s this is our a visual picture of why we think the miners are have made their statement we’re not going any lower versus gold in fact they’ve done better over the last 10 years hard to believe but on a percent gain of price from the bare low to the

current price X is up more than gold is from here’s x 10 years ago and here’s XU today even it’s in the middle of the range but it’s higher than it was in 2015 so if you bought when we said to buy back in February of 201 16 we said go long gold and all Associated markets well you’re actually doing better owning the minors from an investment grade perspective now when you look at the near-term charts of the last couple years you say well I’m not even out above the 2020 highs okay fine but it’s still holding its own versus the mama

mle and we’re arguing ready to go well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and medals with Vince Lancy we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed Financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial adviser before making any decisions and thanks for watching