Another Fake Trump Trade Win (Uncut) 05-13-2025

Another Fake Trump Trade Win – Ep 1026

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Well, the big news of the day was the celebration on Wall Street of the trade deal with China. But the problem is, there was no trade deal with China. It’s fake news.

Now, there was progress. There was a lot of progress. But it wasn’t towards any kind of deal.

The only progress was the fact that Trump completely surrendered in the trade war that he started. You know, the way you would hear the Republicans spin it, including the Trump administration, like Donald Trump did what no other president was able to do, because he got tough with China. He hit him hard with 145 percent tariffs.

And then they went crawling on their hands and knees to Switzerland to beg for a deal. And now, you know, the master negotiator, Donald Trump, struck this incredible deal that rolled back the tariffs. But what is incredible about this deal? Remember, on Liberation Day, which I called at the time the real April Fool’s Day.

But on Liberation Day, that’s when Donald Trump started hitting China with these so-called reciprocal tariffs that didn’t really reciprocate for anything, because China, by and large, has very low tariffs. And in fact, even Scott Besson today admitted that China doesn’t have high tariffs. They never did.

That was just always a lie. And most of these countries don’t have high tariffs. It was all made up.

But when Trump launched these reciprocal tariffs, he challenged the world. He said, nobody better match these tariffs, because if anybody matches them, well, we’re just going to rematch them. Well, China said, we don’t care.

And China immediately responded with tariffs on its own. And it quickly escalated back and forth until Trump got up to 145 percent. And China said, look, we’re going to 125 percent.

But this is ridiculous. We’re not going to go any higher because it’s a joke. So that’s where everything was, 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods coming into America, 125 percent tariffs on American goods coming into China.

Now, we come out of this meeting over the weekend in Geneva. And what’s happened? Well, Donald Trump agreed to eliminate almost all of the Liberation Day tariffs that he imposed. And China said, OK, then we’ll get rid of almost all of the tariffs that we imposed in retaliation to your tariffs.

So Trump went all the way back from 145 percent to 30 percent. Now, remember, before Liberation Day, there was already 20 percent. Those were the fentanyl tariffs.

So those are still there. But of the additional reciprocal tariffs, all that remains is 10 percent. That’s it.

And so China said, OK, we’ll go back down to 10 percent. We’ll keep on 10 percent, too. But nothing else has been accomplished.

China didn’t agree to anything. China’s not doing anything. There is no difference between the trading relationship that America has today with China and the relationship we had the day before we were liberated on Liberation Day.

In fact, it’s actually worse because China has 10 percent tariffs now on our goods that it didn’t have before. So American exporters now face higher tariffs than what they had before we supposedly won this great trade deal. But we didn’t have a deal at all.

In fact, even Scott Bessett himself said it’s a 90 day pause. Well, if we had a deal, we wouldn’t have to pause anything. We’d have a deal.

We’d have some kind of constructive agreement. This is the same nonsense that we got for all the other tariffs. Because remember, after the markets were tanking and Trump got worried about these tariffs and the bond market was tanking, he immediately paused all the tariffs, all the reciprocal tariffs, except the ones on China.

He said, aha, this was our plan all along. Our plan was to isolate the world against China. And now we got China just where we want them.

And so we’re going to stay tough on China. Well, now China’s in the same predicament or the same situation as everybody else. Just the 10 percent tariffs.

That’s all they got from the reciprocal tariffs. How is this any kind of win? People are saying, well, you know, the Chinese, now they really have to come up with a deal because they know Trump is serious because he put on 145 percent tariffs. He’ll do it again.

Well, no, he won’t. He’s never going to do it again. At least I don’t think so.

I mean, maybe the potential is still out there because it’s just a pause. Who knows? But I think that basically he bluffed. China called his bluff and Trump folded.

That’s what happened. I mean, anybody who thinks that 145 percent tariffs now are some kind of bargaining chip that the president could use to try to intimidate China into a deal. You know, he’s already played that.

That’s gone because China already toughed it out. Trump went up to 145 percent. And what did China say? We’re not going to talk.

We’re not going to negotiate with you until you get rid of these tariffs. That’s what China said. These tariffs are not right and we don’t like it.

We’re not going to be bullied around. So if you want to talk trade, you get rid of these tariffs. And so what happened? The Chinese had a delegation or somebody in Geneva.

I think the U.S. took advantage of the fact that the Chinese were already there and said, hey, we’d like to meet with you. And we met with them. And what did we do? We did exactly what China said we needed to do in order to negotiate.

China said, we’re not going to talk unless you get rid of these tariffs. We got rid of the tariffs. And now China says, OK, we’ll talk.

Somehow this is being spun into a victory for Trump into the master negotiator. Does it again? Right. Gets this great deal.

He won absolutely nothing. Now, that doesn’t mean the country didn’t win. The country won something over the weekend because Trump surrendered in a war that he never should have started because he didn’t have the cards.

He picked a fight with China and then he folded. And in fact, you know, I was hearing last week all the media reports from the Republicans. China’s economy is collapsing.

Their factories are shuttering. People are getting laid off. It’s massive deflation.

Like we got them against the ropes. We got them right where we want them. If that was true, why did we completely back away instead of finishing China off? Why didn’t we just hold tight on those 145 percent tariffs until China really caved and then gave us whatever it is Trump says he wants? If we’re about to beat him, why did we just call a draw? Which is what we did.

We’re back to square one. We’re back to where we were. And the people who are saying, well, Trump never could have got the Chinese to where they are now had he not hit him with these 145 percent tariffs.

That’s nonsense because we’re nowhere. I mean, if Donald Trump would have approached China before Liberation Day and said, hey, I’d like to have some trade talks. I’m sure the Chinese would have said, OK, sure.

Yeah, we’re open to talking. What do you want to discuss? The reason the Chinese didn’t want to have talks is because Trump went up with these 145 percent tariffs. And then China says, oh, we’re not talking.

So Trump got absolutely nothing from China. Right. And the tariffs are gone.

Not completely. Right. Because they still got 30 percent tariffs.

Right. That 20 percent fentanyl tariffs and 10 percent extra. And there’s still some other tariffs that were there before, because China Trump had some 25 percent tariffs on certain things.

And so those things are now tariffed 55 percent. But China’s not you know, doesn’t care that much about those tariffs. Now, there’s some people that say, well, we won because our tariffs get to be 30 percent and their tariffs are 10.

So we win because we’re tariffing them more. They don’t care about that. First of all, we lose.

The tariffs are on us. We pay 30 percent. The Chinese only pay 10 percent.

So the Chinese won. And China doesn’t really care about the 30 percent tariffs that Trump is hitting Americans with because it’s not going to make much of a dent in Chinese sales. Most Americans who are buying Chinese products are going to be able to pay 30 percent more.

They probably couldn’t have paid 145 percent more. Right. But they could pay 30 percent more.

So, you know, yes, on the margin, they’ll sell a little bit less and they’ll sell those goods someplace else or they’ll consume the goods themselves. But they don’t care. And it’s not a loss for China that they only went down to 10 percent.

They never wanted those tariffs in the first place. The only reason that China imposed any tariffs on us was because we imposed tariffs on them. So anybody wants to say, hey, Trump won because China reduced their 125 percent tariffs down to 10 percent.

The only reason they were at 125 percent was because of Trump. China didn’t want those tariffs there. And so that, yeah, they lowered up to 10 percent.

What do they care? China got exactly what China wanted. Trump got nothing except another fake victory, which, as far as he’s concerned, is just as good as a real victory because it doesn’t matter for the PR campaign. I mean, what Trump is a master at is publicity.

Right. That’s what he’s a master at. Not not negotiating.

Why is he a master negotiator? Because he wrote the book, The Art of the Deal. I mean, first of all, what’s the odds that Trump wrote that book? I mean, you write you hire ghostwriter, right? Ghostwriters write the book and you put the famous person’s name on the book to sell to sell copies. So I doubt Donald Trump wrote that Art of the Deal by himself.

Maybe maybe he talked a little bit about it to whoever wrote it. Right. But I mean, he probably I don’t know for sure, but I know how the publishing industry works.

And so that’s probably. But just because he wrote a book doesn’t mean he’s an expert at anything. I mean, who knows? But it’s all marketing.

He’s a great marketer. I mean, he sold the country on electing him twice. Right.

So, I mean, that’s pretty good, especially, you know, he had no prior experience as a politician. And he run the White House two non-consecutive terms, again, only done once in the history of the country. I mean, where you’ve had a comeback like that, where some a president ran for reelection, lost.

And it’s debatable whether he actually lost. But let’s say he did lose. And then he came back and he won.

So he’s great campaigner. It’s a great politician. He’s a great promoter.

He’s a great marketer. I’ll give him all that. I don’t know how great he is at negotiating, but there was no negotiation done with with this China deal.

But why did the markets rally? Well, the markets rallied because they were surprised by the surrender. I was surprised by it, too. I remember last week I was thinking, there’s no way we’re going to get any deal over the weekend.

And I was right. We didn’t get a deal. I just didn’t realize how quickly Trump would completely surrender.

But that’s what he did. And in fact, even late last week, he was saying, well, maybe we’ll go down to 80 percent. That sounds about right.

Right. But he said it’s up to Scott Besson. I have a feeling that he already knew that he had told Scott, you know, hey, you know, I’ll go down as low as 30.

He probably knew that because I don’t think Scott Besson was over there by himself in Geneva, knowing that Donald Trump thought 80 was the right number and he was going to come back and say, hey, boss, we’re down at 30. I don’t think there’s any way that Scott Besson went to 30 without, you know, Donald Trump saying, yeah, 30, 30 is good. And in fact, earlier, too, when they were talking about the UK trade deal, which was another BS deal.

And I’ll get I’m going to talk about that one in a minute. But the British deal, they came down to 10 percent also. And Trump said, well, that’s because Great Britain, you know, there are buddies.

We don’t even have a trade deficit with Great Britain. I mean, we have a trade surplus. So why do we even have a trade war with one of the few countries that we’re winning with? Right.

Because they’ve got the deficit. We got the surplus. But he was saying, look, other countries aren’t going to get as good a deal as 10 percent.

10 percent is reserved, you know, for the best countries. And now China’s got 10 percent. Yes, they’ve got the other 20, but that’s the fentanyl tariff.

And supposedly that 20 percent will be removed as soon as China, like, you know, stops the flow of fentanyl or does something, because those fentanyl tariffs have got nothing to do with the reciprocal tariffs because they were all removed with the exception of 10 percent. That’s the same tariff that Great Britain has. So our arch enemy, right.

This is our number one enemy in the world. Right. China’s our enemy.

China’s our enemy. They’re the worst. Right.

They now got the same deal as our best buddies as as Great Britain. But he was talking about that. So he was kind of digging in up till Friday.

And then all of a sudden, Saturday night or Saturday, hey, we got a deal. We struck a deal. Sunday night, we made great progress.

Hey, we weren’t as far apart as we thought. We got this great deal. We’ll give you the details on Monday.

Hype, hype, hype. And then on Monday, instead of a great deal, they announced a complete surrender. And that’s why the markets rally, because now they think, oh, the recession is off the table.

The the higher inflation is off the table. We’ve been saved. Trump saved us from himself.

Right. And now this is this huge relief rally in the stock market, in the dollar, not the bond market. I’ll get into that.

We’ve got a quick commercial break. So stick around. I got a lot more to talk about on this evening’s podcast.

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All right. So while the Republicans were spinning this surrender as a victory, Wall Street was celebrating. A big rally in the stock market.

The Dow Jones was up almost 3%, about 2.8 I think. S&P up three and a quarter percent. NASDAQ up 4%.

Big move. The opposite direction was gold, which was down 2.8%. Oh, the dollar had a big spike today, up about one and a half percent. Back over 101 on the dollar index.

The weakest currencies being the safe haven currencies of the recent dollar decline. The euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen got hit pretty hard today on the reduction in tariffs. Remember, again, before we got tariffs, everybody said that tariffs are going to make the dollar stronger.

What’s making the dollar stronger temporarily? Removing the tariffs. So the people who told you that tariffs are good for the dollar don’t understand the dollar and they don’t understand tariffs. So that should be clear.

But so gold, gold was down 2.8%. You know, it’s still about 3200. I mean, see where gold is trading now. It’s not like gold prices are low.

Yeah, they’re not at the record high of a few weeks ago. And in fact, we got above 3400 again last week in the price of gold. Gold right now, let me pull it up, is trading at 3238.

Pretty good price, right? I mean, it’s if you look at the big drop today, gold was down about $100 an ounce. I mean, it closed down a little lower. At one point it was down a little more than that.

But, you know, 3% move in gold. That is a big move. I mean, gold’s having some out of the ordinary swings with the market.

And of course, you know, the big volatility. I mean, there’s no way that Trump insiders didn’t know this was happening. I mean, I’m sure there were people who knew that Trump was going to surrender over the weekend and they knew that last week.

And I’m sure they made some trades in the in the stock market, in cryptocurrency market, in, you know, in the gold market. I mean, these are shrewd guys. I mean, Trump does have a lot of Wall Streeters, you know, working in his in his administration.

These guys, you know, know their way around the markets. And, you know, I’m sure they’re doing something. I mean, I don’t know for a fact.

I just, you know, have a feeling that these huge swings based on nothing. Right. This is not real news.

This is just headlines based on something that Trump says or does that, you know, it’s all based on him. It’s one man. One man comes out and says something or post something on social media and you have massive swings in the market.

Right. Don’t you think there are some people who are trading on that information? I don’t even know if it counts as inside information because it’s not like specific to any company. It’s just what Trump’s going to say or do.

And if you know in advance what he’s going to say or do, you know, you know what the market is going to do and you can make a ton of money. So, I mean, I don’t know if any of this is ever going to get investigated, but I have a strong suspicion. And it certainly goes on in the crypto market because it’s, you know, it’s the wild, wild west there.

Anything goes when it comes to insider trading and crypto and cryptocurrency. But gold stocks got clobbered. The GDX was down seven and a half percent and the GDXJ was down eight percent today.

Now, the biggest loser on the day was a stock that I own, Pan American Silver. One of my big positions was down 16 percent because they decided to buy another silver company, MagSilver, which was up 6 percent to a new multi-year high. But, you know, I’m sure this is a good buy.

Right. But the thing is, none of the other silver stocks were up when this junior stock was bought out by Pan American Silver. Silver was barely down today.

So you would have thought that, oh, wow, here’s some consolidation. Who’s next? What’s the next silver stock going to get bought? But this is how the algos punished the hell out of Pan American Silver, which had phenomenal earnings last week. It’s a very, very cheap stock.

It’s a great company. Bought another company. But, you know, they could have just bought back their own shares instead of buying MagSilver.

But this is how these companies get punished in the market. And I’m sure there are a lot of people maybe who stepped there, put their toe in the water of the gold stocks last week. And now they’re out.

Right. People like that’s not for me. Too volatile.

Yeah, fine. A lot of the weak guys get shaken out. This is a huge bull market, I think, in these gold stocks.

And, you know, you buy these dips. You’re barely going to notice these dips when you look back on the charts a few years from now. In fact, you barely notice them now.

It’s still a nice uptrend. So buying these gold stocks, buying these silver stocks, this was a great opportunity. I don’t know if they’re going to go down again tomorrow, but regardless, you should be buying all week.

You know, get into my gold fund EPGIX. And silver held up really, really well. I think, you know, you could argue maybe not, but maybe silver is bottom against gold.

And maybe this next rally in gold, which is coming, will be led by silver. We’ll see. But buy some physical silver.

Go to shift gold and buy silver. Right. We sell silver, too, even though the name is shift gold.

It could also be shift silver. And sometimes I think I should call it shift silver because I’ve really been trying to get people to to get into silver. And silver held up really well.

And, you know, I don’t think it’s going below thirty dollars. I’ve said that. And so there’s not a lot of downside risk when you’re in the thirty twos.

Meanwhile, it’s going to go above 50. It’s going to go above 100. So you’ve got a lot of upside potential.

So you want to call up, you know, shift gold or just go on to the Web site and fill up your shopping cart with with silver. Because a lot of people probably think, oh, the trade war is over. So there’s no reason to buy gold as if the only reason gold went up was because of the trade war.

No, gold just showed how valuable it is as a safe haven during uncertain times like a trade war. But gold was rising long before the trade war started, and it will continue long after it ends, assuming it’s over. Right.

But the problem is, of course, it’s a pause. So I still think there’s going to be a chilling effect on a lot of businesses. I mean, maybe they’re relieved.

Let’s say you’re a company and you import a lot of Chinese products. And now, you know, you don’t have to pay one hundred forty five percent tariff. It’s 30 percent.

Maybe you realize, OK, I can I can cover that because my customers will pay that. You know, I’m all right. But how do you take a chance on ordering stuff? Because maybe it takes, you know, four or five months for the stuff you order to get delivered.

I don’t know what the lead time is. But by then the pause is over. And who knows what the tariffs are going to be? Maybe Trump will bring them back.

So do you really want to take a chance on ordering stuff from China now when you really don’t know what the tariff might be? If it might be jacked back up to a level that your customers won’t pay and you’re going to be stuck with a bunch of overpriced inventory? So I still think that there’s going to be a problem and there’s already going to be this air pocket because we’ve gone now a month without anybody placing orders. And so we’re not out of the woods. But of course, even without the trade war, the economy was weak and getting weaker and inflation was strong and getting stronger.

And in fact, maybe now if people aren’t focusing so much on the trade war, they’ll start looking at the big, fat, ugly bill that’s making its way through Congress. That’s going to blow an even bigger hole in the hole that we already blew in the deficit, you know, under Biden. Right now we’re just blowing a bigger one under Trump.

In fact, you know, we got the report for the first seven months of the fiscal year. The deficit was one point oh four nine trillion. Which annualizes to one point eight trillion.

Of course, it’s actually over two trillion. That’s the official number. The official number excludes a lot of unofficial stuff that actually counts because we we still have to borrow the money.

So whether the government wants to officially include an expense in the budget, we still got to borrow the money to pay for it. That’s why I always look at how much the national debt increases, not how much we claim the deficits are, because every year the national debt goes up by hundreds of billions of dollars more than the deficit for the year. Well, how can that be? Right.

Because the national debt is supposed to just be the sum of all the individual annual budget deficits. So how can the national debt go up by more than the budget deficit? Because the budget deficit is a lie. Every year it’s a lie.

Every year the actual debt is higher than what they officially pretend that it is. But even if you look at their pretend numbers, you know, it’s annualizing at close to two trillion. Now, some people might say, well, you know, that’s still Biden.

Yes, a lot of it is Biden because it started in October. But the worst two months, the biggest two months of deficits was February and March. So that’s when Trump was here.

So it’s not like Trump has Trump has changed the dynamics. Yeah, we got a surplus in April because, you know, they normally get a surplus because that’s when everybody pays the taxes. So, I mean, if they ever had a deficit in April, they’d be in a lot of trouble.

But, you know, we got a surplus in April. We’ll be back in deficit again in in in May. But the the bill that they’re they’re trying to pass is going to be a disaster.

You know, they floated a trial balloon. You know, Trump talked about maybe we could let people that make over two and a half million a year who don’t run their own business and couples who make five million a year. Maybe we could let their top tax bracket go up to thirty nine point six percent.

Right. And that thing sunk. Nobody wanted to do that.

Everybody was like, oh, we don’t want to raise taxes on anybody. Oh, no. Not even couples that make five million a year.

No, we can’t even raise their taxes a bit. But we’re going to cut all these other taxes and increase all this spending. How are we ever going to make a dent in the deficit if we won’t tax anybody and we want to keep cutting taxes on most people or cutting taxes on everybody? And we’re not going to cut any spending.

We’re just going to increase spending. Right. The only thing Trump said he wants to cut is the waste, fraud and abuse that nobody minds.

But if he steps on anybody’s toe, oh, he’s not going to cut. How can anybody be talking about, oh, we know we’re cutting government spending because of Doge. We’re cutting nothing.

Right. You know what we what we cut amounts to nothing compared to what we’re increasing. And so this is what’s ultimately going to drive the dollar down.

This is what’s going to drive inflation up. This is what’s going to drive more money into gold. In fact, while they were partying in the stock market and in the currency market, they weren’t partying in the bond market.

Yields rose. Bonds fell. We’re almost back to five percent again.

On the 30 year and we’re almost at four and a half. Let me see where the yields are right now. We’re four point four five on the 10 year.

We were back down to four point three late last week. Now we’re up to four point four five and we’re at four point nine on the 30 year. So I think four and a half.

That’s where Trump panicked the first time and paused the tariffs on everybody but China. And the problem is, what has he got to do? You know, what rabbit is he going to pull out of its hat when the bond market breaks down again and yields are back above four and a half percent? What’s he going to do to stop the carnage? And I think the fact that the bond market was still weak today shows that this is not a hey, the coast is clear. Let’s move back in the US assets because nobody moved back in the US treasuries.

Now you can say, well, it’s because, you know, everybody’s so optimistic on the economy, but also they’re optimistic that this means less inflation. So that should be good for bonds. So I think it’s an important sign that the direction that bonds chose when there was both good news and bad news is bonds went down and yields went up.

And this is ultimately going to be very problematic for the markets, for the dollar and very bullish for gold, which is why people should buy it. You know, I know the Bitcoiners have been celebrating quite a bit again with Bitcoin over one hundred thousand. Michael Saylor’s buying billions and billions of dollars with borrowed money.

His average cost that was almost seventy thousand a Bitcoin. So it’s getting higher and higher. I think by the next time he buys, he’ll have a seventy thousand average cost.

And the next decline is probably going to be below that number. So he’s going to be in the red for the first time and we’ll see what kind of fireworks that that sparks. But I think what’s interesting about Bitcoin is Bitcoin led risk assets lower.

Bitcoin sold off before the Nasdaq and it sold off harder than the Nasdaq. And then it stopped. And while other risk assets kept falling, Bitcoin kind of stabilized and then had a big rally when the market turned.

Well, what happened today? Bitcoin went down. You know, and a micro strategy was down on the day. So Bitcoin, which was almost at one hundred and five thousand over the weekend, is at one hundred and two thousand four hundred now.

So it’s sold off. It didn’t participate in the rally with risk assets. And so maybe since Bitcoin led the other risk assets higher, maybe now it’s leading them lower.

Maybe today was the top. We’ll see, because I can’t imagine the news getting any better than this. Right.

We called off the trade war. Right. So that was the best case scenario.

We could never win the war. I said that from the beginning. The longer we fought the war, the more damage we were going to sustain.

That’s why Trump called it off. But of course, he had to pretend it was a win. And I always said he was going to manufacture fake victories.

Right. That was the whole idea. Like he’s going to keep coming out with these phony trade deals like like the one with Great Britain.

Right. That we came out with, which is much ado about nothing. Nobody even agreed.

And again, it’s not a deal. It’s like a framework for a future deal. But all the stuff that they included is nothing.

And neither side barely had any tariffs before the trade war. And we had a surplus with Great Britain. What the hell are we even doing? Picking a fight with them if supposedly we’re going after the countries that are screwing us over.

And how are they screwing us over? Because they have a trade surplus with us. Well, if if screwing somebody over means having a trade surplus, we were screwing over the British. Because last year we had a trade surplus with them.

Right. So it was the whole thing was ridiculous. But that supposedly was the only country we can come up with a fake deal with was the one country that we didn’t even have a deficit with.

All the other ones that really matter. Nothing has happened. But nothing happened with Great Britain either.

Other than we got our buddies to agree to a phony deal so that we could have, you know, a PR campaign around it. And then we got that. Then we surrendered to the Chinese.

We don’t even have the makings of a fake deal like we have with Great Britain. We just surrender and then and then claim that as a victory. But that is great news for the markets.

But the markets are still in trouble because the markets are overvalued. The economy is in trouble. The economy is going to weaken.

The budget deficits are going to get bigger. I think the trend of de-dollarization is going to continue. Yes, we’ve we’ve paused this trade war, but who the hell knows what’s coming.

I think we’ve already sent messages loud and clear that if you have big trade surpluses with the United States, you’re in trouble. So you’ve got to move away from the U.S. You’ve got to move away from U.S. dollars, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. mortgage backed securities. Trade amongst yourselves.

Right. Trade. You know, China, you know, build up domestic demand.

Right. You can’t keep vendor financing America because, you know, we might default on the debt that we owe you anyway. I talked about that last time.

So I think the movement out of the dollar is not going to end with with the trade war. It’s going to continue. And that’s going to mean more downward pressure on bonds, you know, on the dollar.

And ultimately on on the stock market as well. I want to, though, get on to some more news that was in the headlines today. And this was Donald Trump coming out in favor of what amounts to price controls on the pharmaceutical industry on prescription drugs.

Now, when Kamala Harris talked about price controls for grocery stores, right, the Republicans were rightly up in arms and they said, well, she’s a socialist. She doesn’t believe in the free market. She wants price controls.

Well, now Donald Trump wants the same thing, except in in prescription drugs. And I’m watching in his press conference where he’s announcing this executive order, right, which is ultimately going to do nothing. I can’t imagine that this order is ever going to actually happen.

That’s why the drug drug stocks actually rally. I mean, they initially sold off, but then they rallied because I guess they realized that Trump is all talk, that none of the stuff he says actually happens. So they’re not afraid of this, you know, ridiculous executive order.

But he’s announcing it. And here comes Robert Kennedy up to speak. And he’s like, oh, my God, this is like the happiest day of my life.

Bernie Sanders has got to be dancing in the streets. He probably never thought he would see this day. My kids, lifelong Democrats, can’t believe this is happening.

They’re so happy. Right. So Donald Trump has done something that has caused, you know, complete happiness among the left wing of the Democratic Party.

Right. The Bernie Sanders wing is applauding what Donald Trump is doing. So what does that mean? Right.

The fact that what he’s doing is so popular with the socialists proves that what he’s doing is socialist. But again, what he’s doing, assuming it actually happens, which I don’t think it will, but assuming it actually happens. And what what what what he’s executive order says is that U.S. drug companies, if they sell one of their drugs in another country and they sell it cheaper than they sell it here, they got to sell it here at the same price, wherever the cheapest they are.

Now, initially, when I heard that, I thought it meant anywhere. I was like, oh, my God, because, you know, there are a lot of really poor countries in the world that, you know, we sell the drugs really cheap because, you know, they’re really poor. And, you know, they can’t pay what we can pay.

And so if we we charge them with, you know, what we charge Americans, they think that they would die. They couldn’t get the medicine. But then I later found out that at least it was developed markets.

So so it doesn’t matter. You know, they can still sell cheap drugs to Bangladesh. But, you know, if they sell in Australia, if they sell in the UK, if they sell in Norway, right, if they sell it cheaper in any of these countries.

Right. I’m not much sure, you know, what a list of developed countries are, because there are still some developed countries, you know, in Eastern Europe or South, you know, that that are still relatively poor compared to us as far as per capita income. But what what the executive order says, it’s most favored nation that whatever the lowest price that any U.S. drug company charges for a drug in another country, they got to charge that same low price in America.

They’re not going to do that. This is no way that’s ever going to happen. OK, so first of all, why are drugs so expensive and why are they more expensive here than they are in the rest of the world? Because there’s got to be a reason for it.

Right. Why is that happening? Right. This is what Donald Trump never does.

Like he looks at the trade deficit and says, oh, there’s a trade deficit. So we need tariffs. Right.

Instead of like, OK, why is there a trade deficit? Let’s fix the problem causing the trade deficit instead of well, let’s just, you know, let’s try to blame the trade deficit on China. And use tariffs. Well, now they’re looking at a situation where drugs are very expensive in America.

They’re not as expensive outside America. And Trump’s solution is, oh, well, let’s have price controls. Right.

Foreign countries must be screwing us over. This is just another example of how Americans are getting screwed over by the rest of the world. No, it’s not.

Americans are getting screwed over by the U.S. government. That’s why drugs are so expensive here. So if you want to develop a drug in the United States.

It’s more expensive than pretty much developing a drug. Now, the big problem is the FDA. Right.

That’s where we need to reform. Now, the FDA didn’t even exist in this country until 1906. Right.

So the country was around for one hundred and seventeen years with no FDA. Right. It’s not in the Constitution.

There’s nothing that says that we need an FDA. Now, of course, you know, people got sick before 1906. We had doctors.

You know, we had some kinds of medication. I mean, yeah, obviously not what we got now. But, you know, we made it without the FDA for one hundred and seventeen years.

Now, in 1906, we got the FDA and originally the mission of the FDA was to make sure drugs were safe. If I get a drug, I take it. It’s not going to kill me.

Right. I got something I’m trying to cure myself. I don’t want to die from the cure.

Right. OK. Government’s going to make sure that the medicines are safe.

That’s not hard. It’s not that hard to prove that your drug is safe. Right.

You have a bunch of people. You give them the drugs. And if some of them die, it didn’t work.

Right. Or if they they get they get something else, they have a complication, a side effect. If the side effect is worse than what they’re taking the drug for, it’s no good.

Right. So very simple. The problem happened 50, 56 years later in 1962.

Right. Another bad thing that happened in in 62. Kennedy, matter of fact, was president in 1962.

Our RFK’s uncle. And that was the year the FDA decided that instead of just proving your drug is safe, you need to prove that your drug is effective efficacy. That is the big problem.

They should eliminate the efficacy requirement and go back to the pre 1962 FDA. I mean, as far as I’m concerned, we don’t need the FDA at all. But I know that’s a big step because people will say, oh, then the drug companies will kill us.

OK, let’s just go back to the pre 1962 FDA that says just prove your drug is safe and you can sell it to whoever will buy it. Right. That’s the FDA I want because it costs a fortune to prove efficacy because now you have to do all these clinical studies, rounds and rounds of clinical studies, random double blind studies cost a fortune to do these.

And I think they’re inhumane because what happens is you’ve got to take a drug. Right. And let’s say you think this drug really works and maybe it does work, but now you’ve got to prove it works.

So you’ve got to get samples of people that have some disease and you’ve got to break them into two groups. Right. The group that’s going to get the actual medicine that might save their lives.

And the group that’s going to get the placebo, that’s going to do nothing. Right. Now, why do they give people a placebo? Well, because of the placebo effect, which is why they call it a placebo.

Right. Is that by the sheer force of your mind, if somebody gives you a pill that you think is going to cure you, you may end up curing yourself just mentally, like you somehow mentally will yourself to be cured. And so what the government wants to make sure is that a drug actually works and that it’s not just the placebo effect.

So they have to have a placebo to get the effect. So what they do is they get two groups of people and one group gets the actual medicine and the other group gets nothing. But it’s random and double blind.

So what that means is the patients don’t know who’s getting the actual drug and neither do the doctors. The doctors have no idea who they might be saving and who they’re just letting die, which is why this is inhumane. Right.

How do you give somebody who is dying of a disease? You’ve got a potential cure and you knowingly give them or you don’t know when you’re giving it to them. But when you do the study, you know that half of the people are going to get sugar and they’re going to die. Imagine that.

Imagine you do all these trials and you find out, hey, this drug works. So all those people who we let die, they would have lived if we could have given them the actual pill. But the U.S. government said, oh, no, you can’t give them the real cure.

You’ve got to give this fake cure so you could prove that the cure actually works. I don’t like any of this, but it costs a bloody fortune to get these drugs approved for efficacy. Now, the government says, well, if we don’t make you prove efficacy, oh, you know, people are just going to sell drugs that don’t work.

OK, fine. You know, but if the doctor thinks they are going to work, why can’t the doctor prescribe it? Right. I mean, the doctors aren’t idiots.

I mean, if the pharmaceutical company convinces a doctor that this drug might work, well, let them prescribe it. Let the free market decide. I don’t want the government telling me which drugs I can take and which drugs I can’t.

If I want to take a chance, let me take a chance. OK, I’ll buy that they could do the safety part, even though I don’t really believe in it. But I recognize that that might be a step too far.

Let’s compromise. No more efficacy. That’s something that Donald Trump could do, which would make a real difference, because then the cost of bringing drugs to market would collapse.

Remember, you only get a 20 year patent on these drugs. It costs a fortune for every one drug that gets to the market. Five of them don’t make it through these tests.

So when the drug company finally gets a drug approved and it spent all this money, it has a short window because the patent time starts from when you file, not from when you complete your study. So let’s say it takes six years to get your drug approved. You got 14 years left to make back the money.

But it’s not just the money on that drug that you want to make back. You got to make back the money that you blew on all the drugs that you can’t sell. Right.

And so, yeah, they got to charge a lot of money for these drugs because it costs a fortune to get through all the government red tape. Get rid of the red tape and these drugs will be a lot cheaper and the prices will be a lot lower. Now.

Why do they sell the drugs for less money in other countries? Well, the U.S. is the main market, right? This is the big market for drugs. And this is where they try to recover those costs. Now they have separate markets outside the United States that got nothing to do the United States.

Right. They’ve got this drug. Right.

The marginal cost of selling that drug is nothing. Right. You just make the pill.

It costs hardly anything. So they can offset their costs by selling internationally and crap that we do. Right.

So all the drugs in America are expensive, but you go abroad. Right. If American company wants to sell a drug in Switzerland, it only has to be approved in Switzerland, which is a lot easier.

And a lot of times American companies, our drugs compete with foreign drugs. They’re maybe not identical, but, you know, they’re similar. They go after similar symptoms or diseases.

And so we have to price our products lower in foreign markets because other drugs are going to be lower in price in foreign markets that we’re competing with. And, yes, a lot of these other countries have socialized medicine where you have a government guy and it’s bidding. And, you know, there are different drugs they can bid.

And, you know, there are other drugs that aren’t going to have the big costs that U.S. drug companies have. And so if we if we couldn’t price the drugs lower, we just would be priced out of the market. And I already mentioned, you know, yeah, in poor countries.

Sure. You know, you have a poor market. You know, everybody’s at a lower price point.

Look, drug companies want to sell their drugs for the highest possible price. So the fact that they’re selling their prices, their drugs cheaper in Europe, it’s not because they just love Europeans and they want to give them a sweet deal. If they could charge more, they would.

It’s competition. They’re charging what the market bears in the U.S. and they’re charging what it bears in other countries. So what does Trump want to do? Trump wants to say, well, if you’re selling a drug for a thousand dollars in America and you’re selling it for one hundred dollars in Switzerland, well, you’ve got to cut your price to one hundred dollars in America.

And that’s why you say, oh, drug prices are going to go down 80, 90 percent. No, they’re not. What would what would the drug company do? They would just go to Switzerland and say, you know what? We can’t sell a drug at one hundred one hundred anymore.

It’s a thousand dollars. That’s the price of our drug. They wouldn’t lower the price in the U.S. They would raise the price in Switzerland.

Now, they may not sell as many drugs, but it’s better than cutting the hundred dollars, the thousand dollars to one hundred where they’re going to get decimated. But what is going to end the end result? If you force American drug companies to have lower profits on their international sales because they’re already maximizing their profits. Right.

Because, you know, whenever you raise prices, you’re going to lose sales. Right. So it’s always the tradeoff between supply and demand.

Right. So you find the sweet spot. Where do I get the most money? Right.

And so they’re already profit maximizing by definition. Right. So they’re pricing their drugs where they maximize their income.

If they were going to make more money at a higher price point, they would be charging a higher price point. I mean, they’re not charities. They’re trying to make money.

So if Trump forces these companies to make less money abroad because they have to sell their drugs at a price that’s so high that it eats into their sales and actually results in lower profits. How do they make that up? They make it up by raising prices here, raising prices everywhere. So just like everything the U.S. government does.

Assuming that Trump actually got what he wanted from this executive order, the result would not be that drug prices came down in America. The opposite would happen. We would end up paying more for drugs than we pay now because drug companies would have to make up for their loss of international profits by charging American customers more.

Now, Donald Trump thinks, well, no, this is just going to be great because now these other countries are going to be forced to pay higher prices to U.S. companies. No, they’re not, because there’s obviously an alternative. Because if the U.S. company had the only drug in town, they would have had more leverage with these other governments or other buyers.

The fact that they were able to charge what they charged is because they couldn’t charge anymore. And so we’re not going to get foreigners to just start paying a higher price. They’ll buy fewer drugs.

They might pay the higher price on a reduced quantity or they may buy none of it at all. We may completely price ourselves out of the market. Now, the drug companies, again, were not acting as if this bill was actually going to be implemented.

But what really bothers me, too, not just that Trump would propose something so asinine, because Trump is not a conservative. He’s not a libertarian. He’s a populist.

And if socialist policies are popular, well, he is behind them. And that’s what this is, right? This is, hey, we’re going to use the government to lower prices. And now he’s bragging about already like, hey, we’re going to save all this money on Medicare and Medicaid because, you know, drug prices are going to be 80 percent lower.

Look, if the government could just pass a law and make the price of of drugs 80 percent lower, just pass more laws and make the price of everything lower. Right. Make everybody rich by passing laws.

The problem is you make everybody poor by passing laws. What government has to do, what Trump has to do is look at the expensive cost of health care in America, not just prescription drugs, because prescription drugs actually help keep health costs down. Because if you could take a drug and that cures you and you don’t need an operation, that’s a big savings.

So the more people that can get healthy on drugs, the fewer people have to go under the knife. You know, so it’s a good thing that we have prescription drugs. But if you want to look at why is U.S. health care so expensive? Why are drugs expensive? Government is the root cause.

Just like government is why education is so expensive. Housing, right? Everything the government gets involved in, it makes more expensive. What Trump should be doing is looking for all the ways.

And, you know, I could, you know, if he’s got some time, I’ll tell him. I mean, it’s this I know every single reason that health care and education and housing and all this stuff are expensive and how the free market will fix what the government broke. It’s very easy.

But Donald Trump doesn’t want to go after these free market solutions. He doesn’t want to really shrink the government when he starts talking about this kind of nonsense or tariffs. Right.

He is talking about blaming other people, playing the victim card on how everybody’s screwing us over. And somehow, you know, he’s going to save us, you know, with an executive order. Like the only executive orders that would work would be dismantling a lot of these agencies and departments, which I don’t think he can do by executive order.

So he needs the help of Congress. Right. But Congress is too busy trying to stuff this new budget with pork.

Right. So they can keep buying their new election reelection. It’s business as usual in in Washington, D.C. But what bothers me is that the Republicans are not criticizing this about Trump.

They’re just going along with it. Right. If Biden if Biden made this exact same proposal, all the Republicans would be attacking him.

But since Trump made it, they got to keep quiet. So what does that show you about about these Republicans? I mean, do they actually have any any real principles? No, no. They just you know, they just have to do whatever Trump says and just claim he’s a genius like he is on these trade deals.

You know, the final thing I want to talk about is this 400 million dollar jet from Qatar. So, you know, apparently Boeing has not been able to come through on the new Air Force One that Trump ordered when he was president the first time. It’s way behind schedule.

So apparently the president is flying around in a less than optimal plane. And so the royal family of Qatar happened to have a spare 747 that was about 13 years old, custom built for the royal family. They call it a flying palace.

I’m sure this thing is spectacular and it’s valued at 400 million dollars now. They probably paid more for it because it’s 13 years depreciation, but still not that old an airplane. And apparently they’re giving it to the Trump administration or the Air Force.

That didn’t bother me so much that they’re giving us this plane, although you always got to figure, OK, like, you know, what do they want for it? I mean, why are they giving us a 400 million dollar plane? Like, you know, like what’s the deal here? Right. I mean, they’re expecting something or they got something right. You know, you always have to be suspicious of a gift like that.

Right. But what bothers me about the gift is that after Trump leaves office. The plane then becomes the property of the Trump library.

It doesn’t stay. The Air Force. I mean, why wasn’t it a permanent gift to the U.S. government? Why does it have to go to the Trump library? See, that personifies it as far as I’m concerned.

Now, what they should have done, maybe the South, the Qatari and royal family should have loaned it to us for three or four years and then said, hey, we get it back. Right. It’s a loan until your plane is ready, until Boeing finally finishes your new Air Force One.

We’ll loan you this flying palace and just give it back when, you know, when you don’t need it anymore. That wouldn’t have bothered me. Or, you know, maybe they could have said, you know, why don’t you keep it and cancel your order with Boeing? Tell Boeing, you know what? Too late.

You’re way delayed. We’re canceling that order. We got this plane for free.

This is the new Air Force One. Right. Why not? You know, why can’t Trump’s successor? Why can’t the next president use that plane? Why does it have to go to the Trump library? Now, of course, when I heard it was going to the Trump library, I’m thinking, OK, what’s the library going to do with it? Right.

I’m thinking, well, the Trump family is going to use it. Right. Because one of the missions of the Trump library is to spread the Trump legacy, whatever the hell that is.

Well, how do you spread the legacy? Well, you fly around the world. You go to all sorts of countries and spread the legacy. Who’s going to do that? Don Jr. Right.

Is going to do that. You know, Trump’s kids, his family. That’s what I’m thinking.

Right. And maybe that’s what they were planning. Now, of course, Trump says, no, no, no, it’s it’s going to be it’s going to be parked in the backyard.

Right. Just, you know, like the Reagan. Right.

Because there’s an Air Force One at the Reagan library. Yes, there is. There is an Air Force One there.

Boeing decommissioned it. The plane was over 30 years old. Right.

When it got to the Reagan and they replaced it, I guess, with the one they got now. But Boeing disassembled it. I think they took out a lot of the parts, the engine, a lot of the valuable parts.

And then they reassembled it as a tourist attraction. So it’s sitting there. It can’t fly.

Right. It’s not capable of being used as a plane. So all you could do with it is just, you know, look at it and see, hey, here’s the Air Force One where all these presidents flew around.

Right. In three years, this 400 million dollar jet is still going to be operational. Pretty state of the art, especially after they retrofit it.

Right. Because now the Army or the Air Force is going to take this 400 million dollar plane and add millions of more electronics. Right.

You know, because obviously, like, you know, you get this gift from the, you know, from this Qatar. They’re not exactly our buddy, buddy. You know, you’ve got to be a little concerned that this is some kind of Trojan flying horse.

So they got to really sweep the thing for bugs, make sure there’s no bombs hidden there or something weird. But then they got to put all the other high, high tech security stuff in there. So what are they going to do with this plane? They’re just going to park it in the back of the Reagan library.

There’s no way. There’s no way this plane is just going to sit there. I mean, so it’s going to be used, obviously.

I mean, don’t don’t don’t. I mean, I’m not you can say, you know, I may have been born at night, but I wasn’t born last night. I mean, what Trump should have done, I guess, again, the meme coins, his his crypto company, right.

The Liberty Financial, the executive branch social club at five hundred thousand dollars a pop to have lunch with the cabinet. All the things that they’re doing, all this self-dealing, especially in the aftermath of the Bidens and Hunter Biden. And oh, no, these guys were corrupt.

They were laundering their money through shell accounts. OK, let’s be extra careful not to have even bad optics. And it’s lousy optics when you say this plane, which is also yes, it’s a gift.

Yes. Trump’s. Oh, it’s a gift to the army or the Air Force.

Yeah. Well, who’s using it? Right. Is you know, are the privates going to use it? You know, you know, it’s for the use of Donald Trump and his family while he’s president.

Right. So he is going to get to use it. Right.

You know, stockbrokers, we can’t even take a hundred dollar gift. You know, I’m not technically a stockbroker anymore. I let my license lap most of them.

But when I joined this business in 1987, the most gift you could accept from a client was one hundred dollars. If a gift was more than one hundred dollars, you had to send it back. They haven’t changed that.

So apparently you can’t give a stockbroker one hundred five dollar gift because, you know, that could be undue influence. But you can give a four hundred million dollar plane to the president of the United States for his use. Right.

And, oh, that’s that’s no big deal. But it should not have gone to his library. So it should have either stayed property of the U.S. government so other presidents could use it.

Maybe it could have said, Trump, you use it for four years. And then after you leave, the U.S. government sells it and applies the money to reducing the national debt. I mean, anything could have been done then to say it’s going to go to the Trump library and then have to pretend it’s just going to be, you know, a museum piece.

You’re going to mothball this four hundred million dollar plane that you just retrofitted. I don’t believe it. And of course, I think what would happen.

Right. Trump could say whatever he wants. Now, what’s going to happen after he’s no longer president four or five years from now? And then he starts flying around in that plane.

I mean, what are you going to do then? Oh, oh, I guess I found a way to use it. Right. Just like, you know, all the people that Biden said, oh, I’m never going to pardon him.

I’d never pardon that guy. Right. And then, of course, he pardons everybody.

He said he wasn’t going to pardon. So Donald Trump is now, of course, I’m not going to fly in it. And then next thing you know, well, you know, I decided to fly in it.

I mean, what the hell? It was just sitting there. I didn’t want to just leave it there. You know, and he says, look, I’m not an idiot.

I’m not going to turn down a free plane. Right. I mean, some dumb people would say, no, we can’t we can’t have that free plane, which I also think is hypocritical, because the Trump administration says that, hey, China’s dumping their products on us.

Right. Companies are dumping, which is supposedly bad. Right.

You’re dumping something on us means you’re selling it for less than cost. And supposedly that’s bad. That’s not bad.

That’s good. Right. If somebody wants to sell you something for less than it cost them to make it, they’re an idiot.

You’re a bigger idiot if you turn it down. Right. Why, why, why should I make something if you’re going to give it to me for less than it would cost me to make it? I’m going to take it.

Right. I mean, you know, that was in I think it was Henry Hazlitt’s book, too. Was it is his book Economics and One Lesson, you know, just about Robinson Crusoe.

And I think like a like an axe washes up on the shore, he gets it for free. And, you know, what should he do? Should he use it or should he throw it away? You know, and the economists. So you can’t take that free axe because, you know, you didn’t have to work.

You got it for nothing. You know, and it’s a long passage to debunk all this nonsense. But Donald Trump basically said the same thing.

Hey, Qatar is dumping this jet on us. They’re taking this 400 million dollar jet and they’re giving it us for free. Right.

So why doesn’t Donald Trump say, no, no, we can’t take that free jet. That that that that’s going to put Boeing. We need to buy that jet.

We need to make that jet because we’re putting people out of work by accepting your free jet. Right. No.

He said, I’d be I’d be stupid not to take this jet that Qatar is dumping on the American market for nothing. Right. So, again, it’s hypocrisy.

It shows you that, yes, Donald Trump knows if a foreigner is going to give you a good deal, you’d be an idiot not to take it. So if the Chinese or anybody else was actually dumping products on us, we’d also be idiots not to accept it. But for some reason, you know, it works for Trump, but it doesn’t work for for the rest of us.

Anyway, that’s it for today’s podcast. We’ll see how this week plays out again. This might be one giant head fake.

We’re making much ado about nothing. We saved ourselves from a self-inflicted wound. But the problem is we’re still sick.

Right. The patient was sick before we we stabbed ourselves. And just because we pulled the knife out, you know, it doesn’t mean that we’re all better.

So keep on watching because nobody else is telling the truth. I mean, it’s so much misinformation out there, especially now coming from the Republican side. So you can’t even trust the Republicans, to be honest.

So you got to listen to me. I mean, you can never trust the Democrats, but at least, you know, at least I’m out there, you know, calling it like it is. And and if I if I see socialism on the right, it just is upsets me as socialism on the left.

So if you like the podcast, don’t forget to give it the thumbs up. Leave me a comment. Again, sign up if you’re not a subscriber yet at Shift Sovereign.

A lot of good articles have come out the last week. More are coming on this particular topic. We’ve been working hard on those.

We got some new products also being developed at Shift Sovereign. So make sure and go there and sign up and again, go to your pack dot com to get information on my funds. All the funds were down except the emerging market fund was up today.

But all the other funds were down on the strong dollar on the drop in the gold price. Great opportunity to put more money into these funds. They’ve got great year to date returns and I think they’re just getting started.

And as I said earlier, silver looks like it’s really bottom here. I think an explosive move is coming. So now’s the time to load the boat.

Bye for now and take care.