Gold & Silver Selloff Continues On Friday Morning (Uncut) 02-28-2025
the gold and silver markets are in the intermediate leg of a selloff macro discretionary has been selling taking profits to bullion banks that have been buying locking and losses but a little bit of a Snowball Effect has started and that has driven the medals below levels that they have not been in a while on their way to moving averages that we have not seen in a while welcome to the morning markets and medals with Vince Lany where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious medals news
get you ready for your day and now here is Vince good morning everyone I’m Vince laning and today’s market rundown gold viix market rundown we will be talking about the CTA will de Beast they are back they are driving the market starting yesterday they’re in the driver’s seat they may be driving the car off a cliff but they are in the driver seat you may ask yourself well well Vince you were saying macro discretionary would selling and bullion Banks were buying you know what’s up with that well we cracked the
level yesterday that we had held a couple other days and ctas are a big reason for that and surprisingly they don’t hate the metals they hate the stocks we’ll get into what that means in a second but there you go that’s what we’re going to talk about there’s the front page uh Founders have some we have some pretty uh connected people and Founders and uh one of them is in Asia and he’s helped us out with Taiwan in the past as well as Syria and uh he put together a piece that we wanted to share with everyone
the coming yta 2 Accord and that’s a geopolitical post uh nothing too controversial but something very insightful I think we also posted it on zeroedge and uh we think they gave it some love so we’re happy for that there’s the rest of the page you know the drill you can look at that while we go through the markets 10year yields are unchanged at 426 doar 10734 up four after being very strong yesterday SB 500 5877 bouncing nine handles the vix is 21 unchanged offered vix gold is 2855 down 21 silver is $31 down 17 Again
Gold’s underperforming on the on the selloff and silver is well that’s because you have some funds some funds that are unwinding a spread uh copper 450 down 3 cents WTI 6965 down 70 cents KN gas 397 down 7 cents Bitcoin 85 80 spot 500 down 4 Grand Palladium 9915 down two bucks Platinum 942 down five bucks gold silver stable 92 is soy corn wheat 1020 467 567 up almost two up less than one up four and a half all right let’s get to it a quick reference will the Beast what are the will the Beast well it’s a term
that we use to characterize to describe the CTA cohort of Traders financial traders purely financial traders in Commodities they also happen to trade everything but what are ctas essentially they are the old school retail cohort combined into one contingency so they become like Futures Traders managed money at a smaller level so doctors and lawyers stereotypically uh that used to call on their phone and say buy me gold well now they’re CTA their commodity trading advisor buys and sells gold for them
usually algorithmically uh we have been ctas for very brief period of time there’s too much regulatory stuff for us to go through and uh we did it and it just it was too much too timec consuming so we just went back to managing money as a Trader all right so why am I bringing that up well ctas uh those of you that have been subscribing for years now know that ctas can be very significant drivers of price in the short and intermediate term and we’ve written about them frequently because in the past in gold and silver they were the
biggest players because no one cared about the medals right and so you can see some of the stories that we’ve written about the thing about ctas is when we wrote about them we were remarkably correct uh because it was easy for us to see the behavioral Trend and what it would do to the market so for example the couple examples here could be the biggest buy season ever analysis that was an August of 24 right uh you know the market was already in a good place and we said well you know B season could be huge this year
and B season from which starts in October right from October through December it was massive now it wasn’t because of the ctas it was because the ctas were part of it uh very important CTA pre-sell season same idea same idea this is you know you want to be long gold coming out of celias which was October so there you go the word will there it is silver CT’s dumb as stampeding will to Beast her now if you look at this data this May 15 2022 we said the ctas are going to drive this lower and it drove the market lower
for you know it was months before it stopped they were actually making money being sure and when it reversed it was reversing uh I think in October which was B season and that was when India showed their hand as the big buyer of silver anyway the point is ctas are very predictable in their behavior and in big markets they really don’t affect Direction much but they will add a little fuel to the fire in markets that nobody cares about which is basically precious metals until two years ago they were the market when they
got in the market went up when they got out the market went down and nothing stopped them the banks were giggling making money off of them probably at the time I know that we used to in options okay but gold and silver became mature real markets and ctas I haven’t talked about them in a while why am I talking about them now well they’re really long and they’re really long stocks and they’re panicking on stocks right now and if they Panic on stocks remember their wilderbeast they Panic on everything they just run to the exits on
everything and that’s what I think we’re seeing now let me get into that so there there’s the there’s the preamble yesterday Zero Hedge put a story out late in the day entitled partially entitled Morgan stanle warns selling Panic triggers CTA liquidations and as I was scanning that story I saw one of those whisker charts or contingency charts and let me just par I’m heavily paraphrasing from them here yesterday Trump stirred the pot early with clarification on his tariff comments from yesterday which he explained were
in no way doish that sent the peso the Looney the Yuan and the Euro reeling which hit stocks and hit the medals as correlations became front and center in financial markets continuing from the article they noted with the S&P falling below the 50-day moving average and 100 day moving average since but more importantly the short-term CTA trigger level of 6045 trend following ctas which were Max long stock could start selling in that little chart there those of you familiar with our work know that we will look at these
very closely when it comes to Commodities specifically gold and for me oil we don’t get them in silver that much but the good news is we have one of them today for silver all right so what does what do equities have to do with Metals well as it turns out plenty CTA long exposure to Commodities has almost been entirely in metals and they got even longer over the last month as we saw the market rally when Panic sets in in one sector in this case equities it becomes wholesale Panic as leveraged retail players ctas move to
cash and everything ultimately this creates opportunities for bowls and stocks and metals but not and energy usually too but not before they actually reenter getting short the other way now stocks is harder to pick the turnaround but Metals it’s like they’re long they’re puking they’re puking they’re puking and then they say oh let’s get short and they get short and that’s the bottom like they’re the retailers of the retail um the last time they did this uh in a big way meaning got short not gotten out but got short wasn’t 22 was
pronounced in silver um you’ll frequently if you listen on Sundays you’ll frequently hear us call about fish hooks well a fish hook usually accompanies these types of behavior so the two things that will stop this Market from selling off now are if they get short or if a central bank steps in and says you know what I think I want to buy this level and they did buy uh yesterday but they have more to buy now we’re going to go more into that in premium but I want to blow this Trot up to give you an idea
over the last month okay they were long precious metals they got longer okay and by the way light green to dark green it’s a it’s means they’re butting up against their Maxs okay energy 35 billion 31 billion now why is it darker well it’s darker because because they really got heavily long in natural gas this is like they R they actually got short oil and long natural gas base medals short 14 billion to Long 12 that’s a huge swing and that means some of that money went into silver we have plenty more detailed
charts to go into we fortunately uh got access to one of those Goldman reports we’re going to share that at the end but between now and then let’s get back to the stories all right news and Analysis gold funds take profits Bank Banks lock in losses that’s right that’s what’s happening macro sold taking profits Banks bought taking losses and now you have another contingency that is uh selling and that’s the ctas are selling question is are the Macker going to buy from the ctas remember they did before I
don’t know that they’re going to do that again it’s possible geopolitics are coming the to cor we mentioned Michael Oliver and alist McLoud to REM mention as we have it at the top here gold fix will host Michael Oliver to discuss silver gold stocks bonds and the current events with a live Q&A for Founders Sunday 2m now where were we there we are special football Edition for those of you in the know gold fix pm and let’s move on again market news here’s the news that drove everything yesterday the US plans next
week to impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from China over its role in the fenel trade I meant to say over 25% uh and move forward with 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico president Trump said Thursday setting up a pivotal week for his protectionist trade agenda they really do hate this guy don’t they um the China move slated to take effect Tuesday along with Canada and Mexico action actions doubles up on the previous 10% okay and just I think this is important right because because I think going
forward uh I don’t think he’s going to Bluff on these in February when he announced on Saturday the February tariff and then on Monday he he didn’t back off right they backed off but really was a mutual back off Monday the stock market came in cratering oil came in stronger and gold came in weaker but nothing crazy and when you look at oil when you look at stocks at as a president of the United States those are the barometer for whether you should or shouldn’t do something so stocks creating oil spiking and he wants weak
he wants lower oil he wants High stocks and he wants a weaker dollar was not good right so so whatever Mexico and Canada said that they would do he said fine that’s done hold off for a month I’ll give you a month of a look and he gave them a month you know and everybody thinks it’s over there’s not going to be any tariffs and I’m one of those uh but there’s a piece of the calculus that that was missed and that is the meeting with Putin in Riad potentially uh and um over the Ukraine e European situation is a big face off for him and
he can’t be seen to go into to it week and so March 4th he’s like guess what a month is up not only am I going to do 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada I’m G to do 25% tariffs on Europe and I’m going to do another 25% tariffs on China and then I’ll throw another 10% on top he’s really showing that he’s not messing around and whether he is or not I don’t care the point is the markets say we think he’s not messing around you know he also made some crazy statement they seem crazy but he’s just being tough you
know he said about the uh Ukrainian War either it will end soon or it won’t end you know that’s he’s he’s he’s getting ready for the meeting with Putin and and you’ll note that even though he’s announced there will be one he hasn’t announced a date and my guess is he will announce a date uh that he wants to do it when Putin is on the Lowe’s if you can imagine it all right so there are the other stories moving on data on Deck uh pce today very important it’s 810 now it’s probably going to be out by the
time you see this let’s go through a summary and a final Market check now uh for summary purposes the gold and silver markets are in the intermediate leg of a selloff macro discretionary has been selling taking profits to bullion banks that have been buying locking and losses but a little bit of a Snowball Effect has started and that has driven the metals below levels that they have not been in a while on their way to moving averages that we have not seen in a while this is in due course when you have commodity
trading advisors selling uh also booking profits as we head into the neutral part of the Year expect this to continue unless there’s an event to drive them higher especially since Trump is not backing off on tariffs now while tariffs are financially bearish for medals it causes people to run for the exits the dollar strong correlations snap back in place they are unmitigated bullish indicators for gold and silver fundamentally why because I don’t care if you tariff medals or not really you can’t tariff medals but another
conversation if you tariff medals or not if you don’t tariff medals and I’m a foreign country dealing with the US and they’re throwing tariffs out there I’m a buyer of gold because I need to get out of my dollars because tariffs don’t work if you don’t own dollars so tariffs accelerate the dollariz all right enough with that was a long summary right okay so here we go starting with gold here’s your daily it looks like we have this is this is why I wrote 27 this is a moving average uh that I kind of
threw in there a couple days ago a week ago about so I think we have a destiny I think we have a date with 2770 right 2870 2770 excuse me um if you want to be here my two levels here’s my two levels right I’m not considering being bullish until we get above 2892 and that would be for a short-term trade I want to see how it acts there and as long as we stay under there I believe that this Market is range bound with a bottom down here so I’m bearish you know I’m bearish right I’m bearish right now but I’m not short because I’m
bullish genetically right so this area cracked you could say this is an area and maybe it is uh but I’m not going to play it that way expect another week or two of this at least silver silver is going to deceive you right now because it’s going to hold up relative to gold and if you think that’s a reason to be bullish you could be right but I would say you’re crazy I think it’s just basically hedge funds saying oh let’s close our gold shorts and let’s close our gold Longs and and buy our silver
shorts back so that’s what’s happening I want to see um I want to see the open interest here’s what I want to see for me to be start looking at a bottom I want to see the open interest in Gold go up as the Market’s going down I want to see the open interest in silver go up as the Market’s going down that means someone is stepping in saying I’ll catch that knife right new new Longs get it right and it also means shorts are getting in like CTA is going oh we want to sell and it’s down 5% you know that’s how that
works so I want to see uh open interest go up and a down move so a day a couple days three days in a row who knows but that’s it absent my fantasy if news items come out uh then I’ll be ready to trade on it so you can see silver is already messing around with the moving averages again right remember the 200 day moving average was the support last time I mean it didn’t look like support but it was on a weekly basis it would it would hug it and for gold it was the 100 day moving average right that’s where we
stopped there so there you have it that’s that’s that’s my take on it have a great weekend you’re in the right place catch you later well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and medals with Vince Lancy we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again next week please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed Financial trade advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial adviser before
making any decisions and thanks for watching
