Will Gold & Silver Continue To Beat The Stock Market? (Uncut) 03-16-2025

Will Gold & Silver Continue To Beat The Stock Market?

Hello everyone, welcome to BaldGuyMoney, and to start this video, I want to show you all this. The performance of gold, silver, and the S&P 500 index from 2000 to 2012, where gold and silver massively outperformed the stock market. And what I’ve said in the past when showing this data set is, as much as people like to say the only sure things in life are death, taxes, and the S&P 500, this is a sober reminder that if you retire with, or are planning to retire with, too much of your portfolio in stocks at the wrong time, and no precious metals, so without having gold and silver as a second leg in your portfolio, what are supposed to be the golden years of your life can sadly turn into a delayed retirement and make the years leading into retirement absolutely miserable.

Now, we’ve been tracking a lot of stats here on the channel, and we know that over the past year or even two years, gold and silver have performed very well versus the S&P 500, despite strong performance by the stock market. But with the performance of stocks starting to slow, you can see here that on a five-year scale, so a little bit of a wider timeline, metals are catching up and are starting to outperform stocks, with silver now up 103% over the past five years, which even beats the S&P 500 over that same period with reinvested dividends. So giving consideration to the fact that the market is in a state of extreme fear for the third week running, insiders are selling millions of dollars worth of shares in companies they are linked to with seemingly impeccable timing, and we have suddenly gone from expecting only one interest rate cut in 2025 to expecting three to four interest rate cuts in 2025.

In this video, I want to explore the very real possibility that we are entering or that we may already be within a period like the one we saw from 2000 to 2012, and I want to start by taking a look at what guarantees, or at least what high probability outcomes, we should expect for gold, silver, and stocks moving forward. Once that’s covered, using those expectations, I want to share some revised figures as to what I expect over the next 18 to 24 months, including gold price, silver price, and levels for the S&P 500, and it includes some serious gold to silver ratios for those of you planning on trading silver for gold. And once that’s covered, I want to give you all an update on platinum.

This is not going to be me saying my opinion on platinum hasn’t changed. Something has changed, so watch to the end of the video to find out what. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to check out www.summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust, including five ounces of silver at spot if you use code newcustomer, and I’ll leave the link to this deal in the video description below.

And just a reminder, they do physical gold and silver IRAs too, and you can find out more about that at the summitmetals.com website. Okay, so jumping in, and although what I’m about to show you is by no means a guarantee, these patterns have repeated every single time we’ve had problems with the economy for the last 25 years. And the first one is interest rate cuts happen before the stock market crashes.

We saw it at the end of 2000, leading into the dot-com bust. We saw it in 2007, leading into the real estate crash and global financial crisis of 2008. We saw it in 2019, leading into the 2020 flash crash.

And as a reminder to everyone, the Federal Reserve cut rates last year, and we are starting to see the pullback in stocks now. And it’s because rate cuts don’t just happen out of the blue. It is an act of desperation to reinflate the cheap money bubbles we live in.

The economy was already showing signs of weakness when those cuts were made back in September 2024. So don’t be fooled by people saying a recession is coming. The recession is already here, and it is going to send the S&P 500 back to the 2022 lows, maybe just a bit higher to 4,000, which is a minimum of a 29% fall from here and a 35% drop from the February highs, meaning if at those February highs back, it was about February 19th, I believe, last month, if you had $1 million exposed to the S&P 500 index for your retirement, in a conservative scenario, you’re looking at that $1 million becoming $650,000 in the not-so-distant future.

Now, on the flip side of a guaranteed stock market pullback, we have gold. With the exception of a brief period immediately following the 2,000 interest rate cuts, once gold takes off, it doesn’t come back. And if that holds true this time around, and I have no reason to believe that it won’t, those of you waiting for gold to revisit $2,000 an ounce or even lower are going to be greatly disappointed because this data here suggests that we’re not likely going to crack below $2,500 an ounce for gold ever again.

And in fact, what this data really suggests is that the price of gold is going much higher from here, and we’re going to touch on exactly how much higher in a moment. But to close the loop on these patterns we see for precious metals, let’s take a look at silver, because we know that when the metals market takes off, and I’ve discussed this with Rick Rule in the past, investors get priced out of gold and they flock to silver looking for higher gains, which is when silver starts to outpace gold performance. And this much we know is going to happen.

But another pattern we’ve seen since 2000 is that once interest rates are cut, silver moves up, then it has a quick correction back to the original price at the time of the first interest rate cut or even flushes out a bit below it, and I’ve marked those periods with those red circles here on the graph for you all to see, before it continues its move up with gold. So holding true to silver’s known behavior, it’s a bit more volatile, but considering the fact that I showed you all in a video from a couple weeks ago that silver should make its next move up by mid-April, if it follows the trend we’ve seen with gold, it means the pullback we saw at the end of December could have been that flush out, and if not, there is still a chance of one more pullback for silver, perhaps if it fails to get above $35 this month and is rejected back down to the price support levels. So although this is one of the harder ones to predict at this stage of the game, just remember that the next pullback for silver is likely the last pullback for silver before the next big leg up and before heading to my price target for 2025, which was $42 an ounce.

So now that we’ve covered how gold, silver, and stocks are likely to behave over the next 18-24 months, it’s time to take a look in at the prices we should expect. Now what you’re looking at here is a chart that shows the S&P 500 priced in gold and silver, and you can see the most extreme period of stock overvaluation versus metals was in 2000 when the S&P 500 index cost 288 ounces of silver and 5.1 ounces of gold. And because we’ve seen the launch of metals ETFs since then, and major demand increases for silver on the industrial side of the equation, and central banks returning as net buyers of gold in 2010, we’re not likely to see something like that happen again.

In fact, everything I’ve shown you so far in this video suggests that we topped out in this market at 192 ounces of silver for the S&P 500, and around 2.3-2.4 ounces of gold for the S&P 500. So if we’ve already topped out on this trend, that means we are headed on the way back down. And by taking the average of the 1990 low and the 2011 low we saw for gold and silver when compared to the S&P 500, it tells us, and I think this is a conservative number, that we will probably get back to around 53 ounces of silver for the S&P 500 index and 0.9 ounces of gold.

And if we apply that to the most likely pullback scenario for the S&P 500 that I showed you earlier, which is also on the conservative side and in line with what many market analysts are calling for, it suggests that gold is not stopping at $3,000 an ounce. In fact, it suggests that gold is headed to $4,000 an ounce and beyond, and that silver will easily crack my 2026 price target of $60 an ounce as it heads towards a range of $68 to $75 per ounce as we reach a gold to silver ratio of around 58 ounces of silver to every 1 ounce of gold. And what I will say about that gold to silver ratio is that it aligns perfectly with the gold to silver ratio targets I shared with you all in the summer of 2024 when I shared my long-term price targets with you.

And strangely enough, it also falls within the target range that I shared for people trying to play the gold to silver ratio here on the channel back in 2022, showing a major convergence of long-term data points suggesting that it’s likely going to be around this area as opposed to somewhere else. And although I know many of you think the gold to silver ratio will fall much lower, if the numbers I am sharing here end up being correct, and you can judge me by my record here on the channel how many times I’ve been right versus how many times I’ve been wrong to determine how much it is you want to trust me, but if you’ve come to see that what I’m saying and presenting here on the channel is not pie-in-the-sky nonsense but realistic things that you can take action on, you will at least want to consider starting your movement from silver into gold when the ratio breaks below 60, especially those of you who are doing so within a gold and silver IRA. So take that as food for thought and please let me know what you think about that in the comments section below.

So with that covered, it’s time to get to this video’s viewer question. And remember, if you have a question for me that you’d like to see addressed here on the channel, please leave it in the comments section below. I pick one question for every video I do and you never know, yours may be the next one I cover.

And this week’s question is about platinum and it comes from Mark who is a member of my Patreon group. And I’m paraphrasing his question a bit here, but Mark asks, if silver follows gold with a lag and silver is an industrial metal, can we expect platinum and palladium to move up with gold and silver also with an observable lag since they are also precious metals? So it’s a great question and I wanted to map it out for everyone so you can all understand how I see things as they pertain to platinum. So this chart here shows platinum and gold prices since 2000.

The pink line is gold and the green and red candles show the price of platinum since 2000. And Mark is right in that there used to be a heavy correlation between the prices of gold and platinum. When gold went up, platinum went up.

When the prices crashed in 2008, you can see they crashed together. But after that, we started to see minor divergences. For example, as prices rose after the 2008 crash, platinum never regained its all-time high, whereas gold broke through and made a new nominal all-time high.

And you have to assume this is partly driven by the return of central banks to becoming net gold buyers again in 2010, which obviously has no fundamental impact on the price of platinum. Then, from 2016, we start to see gold price recovering after the 2012 pullback, but platinum prices stagnated. In fact, they even came down a bit, and I’m going to touch on why in a moment, but the final major divergence we saw in price between gold and platinum happened in 2020.

And what this divergence tells us, and this is kind of an answer to what Mark is asking, is that platinum performs like an industrial metal. It doesn’t have those dual-use characteristics that silver has, and that silver benefits from when people seek safe haven and precious metals. Platinum is driven by industry, and because most of its industry has revolved around catalytic converters in diesel cars, yes, diesel cars, not gasoline cars, where majority palladium is used, a falling share of diesel use around the world has resulted in stagnating prices, even though there are some pressures on platinum supply.

Now, although I don’t own platinum, and I do not plan on buying platinum because I’m not bullish on it long term, and it is not especially liquid when compared to gold and silver, I can’t deny the fact that platinum looks poised to make a breakout in price within the next few months, as historically Chinese stimulus has boosted the price of platinum, and on a technical level, it is putting in a strong bullish pennant on the monthly candles, which suggests a breakout to the upside. It doesn’t guarantee it, but it suggests a strong likelihood of it doing so. And where this will take us if the price breaks out to the upside here is a quick move likely to the $1,400 level for platinum, and this is where my message on platinum changes versus some things that I’ve said in the past, so please, hear me out on this one.

Again, I am not a buyer of platinum here, but I no longer favor the trade of platinum to gold, which is something I had been encouraging my viewers to do here on the channel since March 2022 when I put out a video asking if platinum is the best deal in precious metals, and the price of platinum then was $1,000 per ounce when I put that video out, so please allow me to put that correct call in the bald guy bank as it’s been 3 years already and over that same time period as I’ve been encouraging you all to go towards gold instead of platinum. Gold has gone from $1,958 an ounce up to $2,985 an ounce. But moving forward, if you’re still holding onto that platinum, if you were stubborn and didn’t listen to me, at this point, my opinion is you’re better off waiting at least the next 12 months before unloading it for something else because as I see it, we’re getting very close to a breakout for the price of platinum, and to be clear, that breakout is more associated with Chinese economic stimulus and technical patterns than it is to the recent price performance we’ve seen for gold and silver, which don’t have much of anything to do with platinum prices these days.

So Mark, I hope that answers your question. Thank you very much for submitting it. I want to thank everybody who has taken the time to watch this video and apologize for the quality of my voice.

I’m a little bit sick and I’ve really struggled through this video, but thank you very much for watching. Please remember, if you like this content, to leave a like below. If you have a question, leave it in the comments section as well for me below, and if you think this is something important that other people in your life should see, please don’t be shy.

Share it with the people that you know and love and help my channel grow. It really helps attract new viewers and gets this message to more people. So as I say at the end of all my videos, please take care of yourselves and take care of each other.

I’ll see you all in the next video. Goodbye.