TRUTH EXPOSED: End of the Trade War? (Uncut) 04-24-2025

TRUTH EXPOSED: End of the Trade War? Bessent Warns China Policy Can’t Last – U.S. Backs Off?

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We’re losing credibility with a lightning speed as the trade policy is uncertain. Still, there are daily high-level statements made that contradict the statements made a day prior to that, and it is getting messy. It is getting out of hand.

The US-China trade war just took another twist. President Trump just said that tariffs on China won’t be as high as 145% and will, quote, come down substantially. On top of that, Wall Street Journal reports that tariffs on China are set to drop to 50% or 65%.

With tariffs sky high and markets on edge, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says it’s not sustainable. Well, we know that very well. However, he says Donald Trump is not really offering unilateral decreases in tariffs on China.

So what is going on here? Let’s try to make some sense of this mess. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Besson warned that the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and 125% tariffs on US exports are effectively a trade embargo, something we’ve been saying all along. And he said that neither side actually thinks that it can last.

After Besson’s commentary, markets breathed a sign of relief, rallying on hopes of de-escalation. But don’t get too excited yet. The White House says that any news on tariffs will come from President Trump himself.

And for now, that news remains unclear and, of course, subject to change. The S&P 500 jumped nearly 2% on the news after Besson spoke, but it’s still down over 12% from February highs. Companies like German shipper Hoppeg Lloyd are already feeling the pain.

It didn’t take too long, with nearly a third of US-bound shipments from China cancelled. It’s not just China, of course. Blanket 10% tariff on all imports, plus higher duties on steel, aluminum, and autos have already sent shockwaves across the globe.

The EU is pushing back, with threats of 20% tariffs looming. Brussels is offering to buy more American LNG. Of course, they would cave in, as we’ve all sort of expected.

And they’re also offering lower tariffs in exchange for an increase in LNG exports. If the US does come to the table by July the 9th, that is the only ask that the EU has. At this time, it is unclear what the Trump administration is going to do to handle the trade dispute with the European Union.

So definitely stay tuned. Vietnam, meanwhile, is in active talks with the United States, hoping to avoid the same fate. As I mentioned yesterday in a separate video, Japan, of all countries, actually told the Trump administration, you know what? Wait a minute.

We’re not rushing to serve US interests in this area. We’re going to protect our own domestic farmers and producers. So we’re going to have to negotiate different terms.

And we’re still waiting to see what comes out of Japan-US negotiations. So the response does vary, and we haven’t really seen countries line up to dance to the tune set by the White House. Perhaps this is why we’re hearing about lowering astronomically high tariffs on China now.

It just simply doesn’t work. It is not sustainable. The International Monetary Fund warns that the trade war could slow global growth.

The S&P Global reports says that US business activity has already hit a 16-month low, while inflation rises. And that is very, very challenging for the labor market, and it is challenging for consumers. It poses significant threats.

If this is left unchecked, this is extremely dangerous for the United States economy and for all involved countries. Beslan says that we might see clarity by the third quarter of this year. But until then, it is a waiting game.

Trump’s trade agenda remains volatile, and the global economy feels the uncertainty. Caught in the crossfire, instability, of course, and a lack of direction are at an all-time high, and there doesn’t really appear to be any hope for a return to at least some come. Global trade is slowing, and it is slowing fast.

The World Trade Organization has just slashed its outlook for 2025, and the numbers are not looking good. Just months ago, the World Trade Organization expected global merchandise trade to grow 2.7% in 2025. What is this new forecast? Well, that figure has been reversed down.

It is now showing a decline of trade of 0.2%. This follows modest growth of 2.9% in 2024. But as tensions rise, the future is, of course, looking increasingly uncertain. Even the 2026 expectations, once forecast for solid recovery, have been downgraded from 2.9% to 2.5% as the result of tariff tensions.

The slowdown won’t hit equally, of course. North America is expected to take the hardest blow, with trade volumes sharply contracting. Meanwhile, experts believe that Asia and Europe are likely to hold on to modest gains, but nothing near pre-pandemic momentum, of course.

So things are going to slow down if this trade policy, if this trade policy approach remains unchanged. Supply chain disruptions, of course, is a threat, coupled with protectionist policies and rising costs. Those things are straining even the world’s most resilient trade hubs.

And the United States isn’t spared. Here’s the biggest wild card, tariffs, or rather the US trade policy. The World Trade Organization warns that if the United States resumes higher reciprocal tariffs after its 90-day pause, global trade could shrink even further by a staggering 1.5% this year, in an already fragile economic climate.

That kind of disruption could ripple through global supply chains, from manufacturers to consumers. It would likely affect everyone, and as you can tell, not in a positive way. The slowdown marks one of the weakest global trade outlooks in recent history, by the way.

So make no mistake, this is major deterioration. For businesses, it means delays, uncertainty, and rising costs. For governments, it means tougher choices ahead in terms of policies.

In a recent video, I covered the top four economic indicators. You may recall this was just a couple of days ago. One of them was the surge in corporate bankruptcies in the United States.

Definitely check out that video to learn more, and also you will find out the details on other key economic red flags that you may want to be aware of. They’re very, very concerning, and I will link that video in the description below. For the global economy, this is a call.

Will we see a turnaround in 2026, or is this the new normal for global trade? It is impossible to answer that question now, since everything is driven by the tone set in Washington, D.C., so we will keep observing. Will the United States and China step back from the brink, or are we headed for a deeper trade freeze? Let us know what you think in the comments below. As always, I would love to hear from you.

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