This Will Dictate The Next Move (Uncut) 02-21-2025

and once gold broke out above 500 uh out of a cup and handle breakout of about the about the same time period I think it was about 10 12 10 12 years on that on that cup and handle the gold price doubled within the next couple of years and um I made life-changing games I mean it changed my life it was incredible and um we’re basically seeing the same thing now with the gold prize hey hello and welcome to sore financially a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro my name is Kai hoffen I’m the Ed Jr mining

guy over onx and of course you’re host of this Channel and I’m really looking forward to a fun dis discussion here with Dave fley he’s the junior minor junkie good friend of mine we’ve just had like a blast La what is it now 20 minutes we’ve just been chatting I was like Dave we got to hit the record button there’s too much good stuff being discussed we got to get this on record and uh we we’ll we’ll have a blast um we’re going to focus more on the micro today meaning we’re going to talk gold and silver but also Q4 year-end

performance of the miners the bigger miners uh just to get an indication what the sector is up to uh we’ll talk about Dave’s investment style like has it changed over the last nine months uh we we’ll talk a silver price breakout and different very different things more focused on the micro this time uh it’s going to be a fun conversation I know that like Dave Dave’s great stick around for that if if you haven’t done so hit that like And subscribe Button as well it’s a free way to support our Channel

and we tremendously appreciate it now Dave it’s great to have you back on the program it’s great to see you my friend always great to see you K always great talking to you it’s been like nine months since we talked I miss uh miss talking to you like I was looking it up in preparation I when I said saw it nine months I couldn’t believe it because I thought we we talked like three months ago but we saw each other somewhere in between and please don’t say it was Beaver Creek because that was in September I think it was Beaver Creek

that was September yeah um so that’s also 5 months ago absolutely ridiculous Lots has happened um Dave let’s start maybe our discussion with gold and silver um on the very high macro level um you you predicted a run towards 3,000 we’re nearly there we’re at 2935 roughly as we’re speaking Dave um a what prompted the move like and where things headed yeah well you know basically gold continues to outperform all asset classes during now week five of what’s been a very disruptive and unpredictable Trump 2.0 presidential Administration I

mean it’s all about uh Trump chaos and and unpredictability and gold loves unpredictability I mean we had the eye of the perfect storm start at the end of October when you know leading up to Trump likely winning the election we had to sell the news correction which gold needed right I mean gold went from from from October of 23 to October of 24 it went up uh almost a thousand dollar without correcting as much as 5% so we had a nice almost 10% correction and then a consolidation and that was basically the eye in what is now is what

in The Perfect Storm that began in October of 23 right we had that uh cup and handle breakout 13-year cup and handle breakout that’s huge in technical analysis that’s huge I mean the last time we had a a long cup and handle breakout in the gold price was $500 gold was was uh was was bumping up against $500 in in 2005 that’s right after I started to get in interested in in the sector and once gold broke out above 500 uh out of a cup and handle breakout of about the about the same time period I think

it was about 10 12 10 12 years on that on that cup and handle the gold price doubled within the next couple of years and um I made lifechanging gains I mean it changed my life it was incredible and um we’re basically seeing the same thing now with the gold price only this time uh silver and the miners have really yet to participate but at the same time they’re they’re forming their own handles right now of huge cups if the in the GDX and gdxj you’ve got a four-year cup that cup cups that have formed and

this handle has been about four months so once we get a breakout above long-term resistance around that area in 43 in GDX and around uh I think it’s 54 in gdxj that’s when we’re going to start to see some real fireworks in the sector yeah know absolutely let me bring up a chart here Dave real quick and uh just just playing with it on Google Finance a little bit it’s the GDX the gdxj in blue in blue and yellow gold and turquoise whatever that is yeah and S&P 500 in Orange and something people don’t

realize is that the gold in S&P 500 over the last 5 years have pretty much moved in lock step if you look at it like gold yes it’s up 80% or 78.4% while S&P 500 is up 84% not that big of a difference I personally thought it’d be bigger all right now let’s take a look at year to date and you’ve touched on that already where’s my mouse over here let’s look at this completely outperforming starting to come back to what we’ve been predicting here on this channel for a while gold to outperform and then the

miners to really outperform gold as well and that’s just the year to date as you said like last five weeks here um ETFs the gold GDX up two factored two over gold historically factor three so we’re still lagging a little bit uh and the gdxj roughly the same let let’s say Factor two as well still lagging in my opinion a little bit but it seems like we’re catching a bit more momentum let’s talk about that um we’re getting some more traction here uh for the last couple weeks in the in the miners uh

talk to us about that what are you seeing yeah I mean basically you know the gold price has has ran up so much and the miners and silver haven’t really followed because the big reason is central banks have been the reason Central Bank buying has been the reason for gold going up so much after uh the West removed Russia from the Swift system right basically um upended the the the the uh international trading system so the These Bricks companies These Bricks countries continue to buy gold and um that was a

big reason why the gold price was going up but they don’t buy silver and they don’t buy mining stocks and at the same time uh crypto was making all-time highs and AI is making all-time highs stock market making all-time highs you know there hasn’t been real any real impetus for retail to come back into this sector I mean retail left this sector over a decade ago so basically um what you’ve been saying is correct about um the go about gold stocks and the gold price uh outperforming the s&p500 and and

especially now recently the gold stocks have really started to show that leverage that they additionally show like you said it’s usually three times but two time two times will take it especially after what happened at the end of last year when you know the the miners were really starting to to outperform the gold price up until that October happened and it took the rug out from under the the mining sector I mean U and what did that was we’ll touch upon that later was uh was new Mon’s earnings I mean as newmont’s earnings go so goes

the mining sector um they really disappointed on cost and that took the whole mining sector down with it you know I mean you got the you’re coming toward the end of the year you you’re regular you know if you’re you’re you’re a generalist investor and you’ve if you have dabbled in the mining sector you’re going to take your profits and you’re going to rotate them into you know what you what’s been doing well for you which at that time and it still is the stock market AI crypto so that really took the

rug out from under the under the mining sector but it also created incredible opportunities coming into the beginning of this year I mean my portfolio has done really really well since the beginning of the year and um I expect that to expect that to continue as the gold price finally gets over $3,000 an ounce I mean $3,000 an ounce is is acting like a magnet here as far as gold Futures are concerned you know the the spot price is still about $75 or so away from it but um but also at the same time

if you when you take a look at round numbers and the gold price when they’ve when they’ve get toward that that um important round number like when they got toward that uh $1 thousand an ounce it really got volatile and then it got to towards a $2,000 an ounce it got super volatile so it might start to happen here now too we came up I think was $32 um it came up within $32 uh April gold came up within $32 of of 3,000 recently and it’s starting to get volatile again so and plus it’s extremely overbought on a monthly basis

so um you know seeing some more backing and filling here before it gets above 3,000 wouldn’t surprise me yeah I’m I’m glad you mentioned this like we need to talk bear SC a little bit we can’t be all Euphoria here that’s the just just is the one-ear chart um which is absolutely insane look at the straight line pretty much moving from left to right uh personally I’m really happy to see it of course but you know on on this channel we’re always being criticized for being too much Doom and Gloom but

let’s look at some Doom and Gloom for gold like what are some be cases uh for gold that could reverse momentum right now well peace breaking out in Ukraine right they’re they’re talking peace talks right now um you know a big reason why the gold price has done what it’s done is is geopolitical reasons um you know the ceasefire in also in the Middle East or Hamas I know that looks like it’s it’s breaking apart now but basically things getting better which would be a good thing right I mean that’s what we want to see we want to

see peace break out we don’t want to see the gold price going up for that reason I mean if you take a look at what happened during the 70s during stagflation right I mean we have the a similar environment right now where it’s starting to look like stagflation where we had lower looks like we had a a lower Q4 GDP growth I mean the latest estimate was 2.3% and then the latest um um uh inflation uh estimates out of out of the the government are well above the 2% you know fantasy Target of the fed or more

like 2.8 2.9 over 3% but pce is what the is what the FED looks at and that’s still at like 2.8 I think so that’s stagflation right there right you see slowing growth and and continuing Rising inflation but I digress here back during the 70s we had the gold price moving from I think from from around $100 an ounce in 1975 76 and it went to $4500 by by late uh 1979 but what took it from from 400 to like 850 in like six or seven weeks was geopol iCal reasons was the Iran uh hostage crisis and uh Russia rolling into Afghanistan that was

the blowoff top for the gold price so I mean we don’t want to see the gold price going up for for geopolitical reasons although of course we’ll we’ll take it because you know uh as far as as far as the gold price is concerned I still see it massively undervalued considering the debt situation that we’re dealing with right now I mean if you if you want to compare to the 70s back during the 70s when vulker was was able to raise interest rates to 20% uh the US debt to GDP was 35% and the debt was less than a trillion

dollars I mean now I mean take a look at it it’s it’s the debt to GDP is 130% and our debt is is 36.5 trillion in counting and our deficits over two trillion dollars and a trillion dollars is added to the debt I think every seven or eight months so I mean it’s impossible to to raise interest rates like that right now so the the feds between a rock and a hard place gold knows it we got another debt sealing discussion coming up here in the middle of March uh Scott presentent was presented with intable situation where

he’s got a roll over at nearly 10 billion dollars of debt at higher interest rates so you know uh the gold price is sniffing all this out and um it’s it’s it’s continuing to outperform all asset classes like I said at the top of the show here like what what’s gold telling you in regard to FedEd funds interest rate we had a couple guests on and uh the opinions are wide ranging from we need lower rates to the FED will Race by the end of the year like what camp are you in Dave I think the gold price is disconnected from that I think

the gold price is looking at the FED basically caving on inflation they keep job owning and saying oh you know inflation is improving until recently they’ve admitted that hey it looks like inflation is is going to stay around for a while but they continue to say that they they can bring it down to this fantasy Target of 2% which isn’t it’s going the opposite direction it came down to like two or 2.4 or 2.5 and now it’s going back back up over 3% so and and what uh Trump is is intending to do with with tariffs that they can’t

control and I know that there that the that the Trump Administration is trying to get a handle on the debt you know you know auditing all these agencies and trying to bring down costs but you know I don’t see how they can do it um I still see the debt remaining completely out of control and bent knows it and he’s already said you know he’s he’s mentioned that they’re going to that they’re basically going to revalue things on on the US asset balance sheet and what could that mean that could mean

auditing you know the gold and because I mean maybe maybe monetizing the gold in some way because um you know this is what this is the scuttlebutt now and it’s also getting into mainstream media financial times even had an article on it um after bassent said that so and then this and then over the weekend Zero Hedge presented to to um to Elon musk saying that hey how about auditing the US Gold because it hasn’t been audited in 65 years of course if you before you monetize something you have to audit it

to make sure it’s there um so you know there’s all this all these uh rumors of of the reason why the the the gold is coming from uh the lbma into the comc so much so much physical gold is because maybe this is the reason that Gold’s not there and they have to and they have to replace it you know there’s all these uh rumors about two to four uh tons of gold on each flight coming into New York from from London I mean who knows what all the these are all just rumors and and I don’t invest on rumors but I do know

that uh the gold price is basically reacting to this perfect storm that we’re in that I mentioned earlier yeah like I personally I’m a little worried that it’s moving too fast that there’s a bit there’s hype around it and we’re seeing memeold you know right um it sounds horrible to say it out loud but I’m kind of worried there’s like there’s a hype let’s monetize the assets let’s revalue like we had any checkman on and not don’t mean to be little but he he suggested oh we should revalue to $142,000 an ounce that way our gold is

worth as much as our debt yeah I’m sorry I don’t want to live in a world where Gold’s $142,000 hour no it’s like of course not like it’s all theoretical right but the that’s where gold would have to be revalued to to to make sense of it all like otherwise it’s not enough like we I’ve done the math with done durett here on the program the other day uh the US holds roughly 8,000 tons of gold that’s $750 billion uh right now like even if that were to be monetized and sold tomorrow that wouldn’t make a difference

on the US balance sheet is my no it would it would it would eliminate six seven months of debt right at best like and half the maybe a bit of the def like the deficit this year right exact doesn’t make any sense so like I’m worried that it’s overhyped a little bit so like I’m a bit cautious like like I’m starting to get doom and gloomy on gold here for but I hear you I know got be cautious technically if you look at technical analysis you look at the monthly chart you know any every time it’s gotten up

to this extreme overbought level you you start to you start to see Corrections which you know is healthy and you want to see you want to see corrections but you don’t want to see Panic selling but and I don’t I don’t see anything right now on the horizon that would that would uh promote Panic selling except what I mentioned earlier maybe peace breaking out you know in in Ukraine in in the Middle East which like I said would would actually be a good thing but um as far as the gold stocks are concerned

they’re still massively undervalued we still haven’t got that mean reversion moment yet I mean sure we’re starting we we are starting to see um we have seen a lot of uh Bell weathers you know breaking out with the gold price you see nio e Eagle making all-time highs with the gold price you see wheat and precious metals making alltime highs with the gold price and in in mid te you see Alamos making all all-time highs with the gold price um you see Ken Ross also I mean so it’s you are you are seeing you know separate uh uh companies

doing that but as a whole we still haven’t had that mean reversion moment but we’re we are starting to see it in juniors we’re seeing a lot of quality Juniors start to start to play catchup we’ve seen a lot of quality Juniors have really strong moves so I think that is you can relate that to some SE internal sector rotation and what I mean by internal sector rotation is basically Kai it’s been you and I and and our other uh resource sector Brethren trading amongst each other for the past decade or so the retail mark space has

you know not come here you write your name on a $20 bill you you’re you’re definitely gon to see it again exactly exactly so and if you and and for proof of that you just need to take a look at the volumes on GD GX and gdxj ever since the the covid flash crash volumes have gone lower and lower and lower in the GDX and gdxj because basically because the retail investor has been concentrating on AI and crypto and and and the uh European investors continue to come into the to the Dow in size so you know until we start to see some

cracks in the stock market especially in AI in crypto you know Bitcoin is having trouble here around 100,000 and it looks like you know uh AI is having some having uh also some pressure from CH from uh that uh China invention and and Nvidia basically losing more than the entire market cap of the mining sector in one day um you know once we start to see more of that we start to see more fear out of the the AI and the crypto space we’re going to start to see more sector rotation coming into our space now we had Dan Niles on earlier

this week and he said we’re in the digestive period for AI meaning we got to digest all the capex spent and the stocks are showing weakness you know estimates are being cut and things like that um and I’ve been saying that for years now like we need to scare the 401K money to come back into our sector to look for returns like absolutely I don’t want people to lose money don’t get me wrong but we need to scare them enough that they might come over and say hey um I used to make 20% easily every year

year in the S&P 500 uh maybe I’ll put it into the GDX although personally I’m not a big fan of ETFs but uh let’s put it into the mining sector and see if we can get my 20 if I can get my 20% here right right um let’s talk about you touched on the egnos the the newans we need to touch on let’s talk about the bigger miners um see since they are Trend Setters and uh you said that Newan poo pooed the party a little bit at the end of last year um I had the chart prepared and then I started looking at the new

the igno chart but let me pull up the new month chart here real quick uh just the one-ear chart uh no this button sorry about that folks there we go there’s a newon chart and as you said Newmont was flying high numbers came out poof done um or at least some of the air went got got left out of that balloon here um tell tell us about the the quarter leas for the majors here yeah it’s um you know as far as um the uh the earning season you know it it kicked off officially last week when when baric reported and they surprised

to the upside you know they surprised on Revenue um uh I think they had um all-time high revenue and um the stock reacted positively it went up over six% on the day and um as far as and then we had igno coming out um the day after I believe and um but if you take a look at the igno chart you know it had run up so far so fast it had more than doubled in less than a year and it got extreme overbought I mean the market even though um IGN’s got these ridiculously low all-in sustaining costs of like $1,238

or something and and this and the company’s just printing cash um the stock got ahead of itself and the market just focused on the the the 30 million doll um um Revenue uh loss right it it disappointed on Revenue by only $30 million so they took that as a cue to take profits um which you know I mean it’s it’s just healthy profit taking in basically the best gold miner on the planet I mean if you don’t own igno then you know I mean it is the best mining uh stock on the planet because they’re the

best Miners and a big reason why they’re all in sustaining cost is so low is because a lot of their mines are in Canada and they’re paying they’re workers in Canadian wages which is you know and the Arbitrage you know as far as selling your your your ounce of old in dollars and then paying your wages in in depreciating Looney is you know a Big Boon for the company absolutely absolutely I was wondering ask you let me get me myself back on screen here I asked you earlier Dave like what what’s the issue here

with new anniko are we going to see a big Scandal develop here because they’re producing about $300 $400 below their peers on an all and sustaining cost so yeah I know you just touched on it but I just want to you know maybe get T more granular um are we going to see a big accounting fraud scheme here you know being exposed by by one of those short sellers or is this actually true oh I don’t know about that but um as far as you know you asked me before about Newmont um you know they’re coming up on their earnings on the 20th which

today’s the 19th and the 20th after market they’re going to announce their earnings and like I said before you know um it it goes without saying now that as new Mon’s Q4 goes so goes the mining sector um I mean it’s Newmont is the the only uh Gold Miner on the S&P 500 it’s the largest most liquid it’s the it’s you know almost twice the size of any other Gold Miner um and uh back in October they reported that weak set of quarterly results and and it really took the market with it but you know this time um

as far as uh their their their um aisc they’ve I think they put out um guidance that um it’s it’s it’s backed down more towards that 1450 1400 uh 25 dollar an ounce range where where it Rose to six over 1600 before and also they’ve you know they’ve also sold a lot of those mines that were higher cost they expected to get two billion in sales from those mines that they sold and they got 4.3 billion more than twice of what they expected so I expect a really strong quarter from from igno and um like I said that that’s

going to be reported on the 20th after the close so we really have to watch that stock um because yeah it’s it’s it’s G to take them either it’s going to take the mining sector down with it or it’s going to take the mining sector over the top to that breakout of that cup and handle in the GDX and gdxj I mentioned before yeah like you you touched on baric earlier Dave and uh one one thing that comes to mind like they’re Distributing cash to their shareholders um they’re doing a bit buy another buyback I believe about a billion

dollars or so they’re Distributing hope I got the numbers right here um to mention that personally I’m not a big fan of that like I’d rather see growth um I’m not a value investor I I personally don’t really care about a dividend from the mining companies I’m more interested in growth uh person but by my junior uh I’d prefer that right um where do you stand on that topic and to maybe as a part absolutely yeah and also they also mentioned it’s funny Bristo came out and mentioned that they were considering relocating so they could get

on the S&P 500 with newon but I think you know they’re just trying to deflect away what’s happening in in Molly because that’s huge you know that’s a big part of of their production and they just broke off talks if they end up having to put that uh mine on Caren maintenance it’s not going to it’s not going to look uh good to the to the shareholders y no that’s a big part it’s apparently it’s 7% of Molly’s GDP in 2023 yeah so it it is big big important there’s an arrest warned out for Mark Bristo four of the baric employees are

in jail in Molly sounds like a good time um no it’s It’s Tricky It’s Tricky my point well maybe part B of the question is and we talked about this off a already uh m&a in the space has been slow to say the least despite all that free Cas think there’ be a lot more yeah and my my point is like why why not and I I gave you maybe a talking point earli before H the record button but Bristo said in his press conference uh well we’re exploring and finding gold for $10 an ounce um and I’m EXT extending that

point now is like why would we buy something like that’s not what Bristol said that’s what K is adding there that is a great point and he’s he’s also said that you know we’re not going to grow just for the sake of growing he poo pooed the numont acquisition of new Crest um but you know I’m sorry it’s still cheaper to require ounces on Bay Street than it is to to start to to basically look for them yourself yourself and then take however many years wherever you are wherever you’re at in the dresing of that project to

construct and then finally produce gold I mean it’s a lot faster and cheaper to buy it on Bay Street right now yeah particularly if you don’t buy it in Pakistan I I assume right uh I’m sure there there’s a few projects that are trading around 20 or 7 to $30 perhaps like for per ounce in the ground uh we don’t have to discuss what what Institue value there is and the valuations of that but there are some deals to be had maybe as a question for you Dave when I started in the sector small anecdote uh

everybody was saying he like Hey we’re going to have 100,000 ounce production profile for 10 years a major is gonna buy us that Chang nobody mentioned anything about permitting nobody cared about permitting back then that was a different story First Nations permitting and everything else like who cares my point is though the majors are now let’s let’s look at 00,000 for 10 years and of course 100% recovery so um where do you stand there should need do the majors need to get off their High or do

we just find more quality ounces are they even there I think it’s you know I I think the industry is really watching what newmont’s doing right they’re they’re doing they they acquired new crest for growth right and then at the same time they’re monetizing all these higher cost assets down to like 11 or 12 mines so they’re they’re keeping these high margin mines that are that have got long life and they’re monetizing the other mindes so they’re kind of doing two things in one right they’re growing by

acquiring you know a company and becoming now becoming you know the largest gold miner in the world by two I mean it was just 10 years ago where baric was the largest gold miner and now Newan has not only overtaken them but they’re almost twice tce the size of baric but at the same time they’re monetizing these these lower margin High higher cost assets where they’re were they becoming almost more lean and mean even though they’re still going to be the largest um gold producer so I think the Market’s waiting to see if they can

pull that off and um if they can then maybe you’re going to start to see other companies kind of um mimic what they’re doing now absolutely it’ll be it is the Bell weather AB absolutely out there um Dave like I asked you earlier about the fed and the FED funds rate and how it’s impacting like the miners and and gold uh I want to like bring it down to the junior level um I’ve given him a presentation at P at vck the Vancouver resource investment conference and I did a bit of a gut check because I kept

telling people like hey once the FED started raising rates uh back in March 2022 uh wallets went shut and our sector went really into a deep deep dark hole right um i’ I’ve done the work so back in May 2022 the FED raised by 50 basis points and volumes on the Venture for the mining space halfed or it went down by 65% you haven’t recovered since lowest volume since the beginning of the TSX Venture in 99 yeah exactly exactly about 700 million or less uh dollars worth traded in mining stocks um are you

seeing a recovery I am in quality you know I mean the days of just throwing a dart at a board of Miners and buying it and making money are long gone I mean that’s that’s what it was like when I came into this sector you know I I love to I I love to to to say you know my favorite um rism is I confused a bull market with brains when I first came into the sector I just thought I was all knowing and everything that I bought pretty much went up well those days are long gone as as they should be because as also what rule has

famous for saying is 85 to 90% of these companies are not viable they’re they’re basically lifestyle Juniors and um the the ones that are drisking quality assets they e they either need to merge they need or they need to get a strategic partner for for the access to Capital because these little drips and drabs raises of keep the lights on money isn’t working anymore so um you know this sector still needs to consolidate we still need to see more consolidation and I’m not talking about consolidation of equals as

far as developers are concerned you know if you if you get two developers that have the same problem and they merge then they’ve still got the same problem so but you but what you’re seeing is you’re seeing a lot of these Juniors doing something something really smart and going out and buying a producing asset and having some cash flow while they drisk their other assets or assets you’ve seen that a couple several times and those stocks have really been rewarded you know you seen it with hel with Helio star you know they they went

out and bought those what were throwaway assets for for Argonaut became cash flowing assets for them and the stock tripled so you know there’s a couple other examples out there like that and um I think you’re going to see more of that I’ve seen too many stories where it didn’t work out so I was going to say like you gave a good example and you know I appreciate hel star I’m actually shareholder so uh this I should put that in the disclaimer um unaffiliated of course but I do own some stock I think

I’m actually finally in the money again great um yeah it’s been a while um but my my point is like I’ve been hearing that pitch like when I go to Beaver Creek and other conferences like oh yeah we’re going to take this into production and then we’re going to focus on expiration or we’re going to buy this and like I’ve seen it fail too many times I know I know I know where you’re going with this you know if you if we’re gonna start with a smaller scale operation first and then ramp up later that rarely works I’m talking about

buying a producing asset that is is already cash flowing you know really well has a decent all-in sustaining cost maybe not a lot of growth but you don’t but if you’re a developer you don’t want the growth you just want the cash flow you already have the growth in the projects you’re drisking so you just want the cash flow and maybe you hedge half the production make sure you have really good cash flow while you’re doing it because that asset really as far as the growth is concerned that’s not where it is so you know

there’s been a few examples of that that have worked and this and the share prices have responded well um so it all depends you know I mean you really have to break out your your you know your pencil sharpener and make sure that you’re holding the right assets here because this is the time to to accumulate you know these the best Juniors but you got to make sure you you accumulate the right ones I mean there’s no basically there’s no dumb money out there to bail out bail you out of your mistakes like there was 20 years ago

there’s there’s no government bailouts you might get luck in the gets a grand for something their sure chips are not going to deliver on but uh it’s going to happen um Dave I want to use the last 10 minutes s to talk about investment strategy a little bit um when we last spoke nine months ago said well I’m avoiding early stage exploration that’s not for me now yeah I was going to say it’s like um what what are you buying like what’s your focus what are you looking at where’s the opportunity here

um I the opportunity still lies in these optionality Juniors that are drisking these high margin projects but like I said you got to make sure that they they tick all those important boxes right first of all you know share structure make sure the share structure is not too blown out especially if it’s an if it’s a pea stage or a pre-feasibility Stage Company and they’ve already got a lot of shares out you know that that sh that that structure is going to be blown by the time they reach the finance stage or

the feasibility stage um you know also you got to make sure that that the company has access to Capital they’re a serly successful management team that’s done it for and that still isn’t going to guarantee you success I’ve had a couple where I did a couple of management teams that I bet on you know uh recently that made me a lot of money during the during the the uh the previous bull market but they mismanage Capital markets this time I mean that that’s a big one you know this is a totally different environment as you

well know for for Capital markets this time so you gota I mean it’s it’s a you know with these Juniors that that aren’t throwing off any cash flow it’s a con B constant race for between drisking and delution right you’re trying to drisk while you’re trying to loot the least amount that you can and at the same time when you raise money you you you don’t want to issue warrants uh because if the market sees that that you’re issuing a warrant right now then that’s telling the market hey this project isn’t

quality enough to where they can raise money without a warrant you have to look at those things because you know and as and as far as you know early stage companies are returns while I continue to stay away from them sure there’s been several success stories and I’m I’m happy to see them we need to see more early stage exploration success stories but I continue to stay away from them because um you know there’s there’s so much cheap gold in the ground already in these Juniors that are already drisking

these project that they found you know millions of ounces of gold in top tier jurisdictions and they’re trading at less than $40 an ounce on the ground absolutely yeah I mentioned it earlier $7 to $30 for some decent Juniors uh in a you know accessible jurisdiction um right I’m just I’m just looking at your portfolio here because you kindly send me your Junior Miner junkie weekly update and that’s right you’re you get a free subscription because I love you so much I’m a freeloader absolutely no but I love it it’s like I

love really love your updates your weekly updates a lot on the macro geopolitical side just really framing thank you it’s a labor of love it’s a lot of work but it’s a labor of love oh absolutely no it’s fun it’s fun to as well but I’m looking at your top 10 or top 11 positions that you’re holding and uh I have to note cuz I was going to ask you a little bit about copper and uranium just on the periphery just see where what your thoughts are and I see you’re not holding a single copper or uranium company uranium I think we’ve

established last time copper comp yes look further down ode Oda skina oh no I’m not gonna read the whole list that’s that’s cheating no don’t do that I was going to say it’s like I don’t see one is is OD odv is that one no no look at look at number 13 or 14 I think it is oh I I’m looking in your email there’s only 11 listed in there hold on let me let me scroll up you give you provide a lot of links hold on uh there’s the watch list the portfolio trade history real money trading account let’s take a look at

that one well well well basically I have I have one copper Junior and I have another gold copper junr and I do have several other ER Junior’s on my watch list there’s a couple I’d like to get into and but but but for me to be able to get into it I have to sell something else and there’s one or two companies that I’m waiting for them to get to my original cost they’re not too much too far away and um once they do I’ll sell it and I’ll rotate that money into another copper junr because I do like copper here and there’s several copper

Juniors that are really starting to move as gold as copper gets close to $5 a pound um so yeah I mean there are there there are there’s more on my watch list than there is in my portfolio right now yeah I was looking in your email and there was only 11 mentioned but I see the other I see it now there’s uh I’m not going to give the away the name like let’s let people figure that one out but uh let’s talk copper real quick um I’m a bit surprised I haven’t copper I don’t look at it daily um I look at it from

time to time but 460 a pound um what’s been driving that is that really just the uh like bring bring production back home make America great again uh out of a recession no no Landing soft very very soft Landing I think it’s a combination of all that and you know of course you know the the future we’re going to need a lot more copper and as far as copper mines are concerned what there’s another you know after after the one in Panama went down um there’s also I think BHP had problems with one here recently um

they just announced their quarter was they had a pretty bad quarter because they had to shut down operations or something on one I don’t quote me on that but I just saw the headline but uh yeah I it’s it’s a combination of all that and if you take a look you know a lot of these copper Juniors um some of them you know they’re drisking really good projects another one came out today with a fantastic pea they’re on my watch list and it’s it’s a company I’d like to get into so there’s there’s you know

there there’s some out there that I really like here and uh this their share prices are starting to move you know when you take a look at at the stocks and um they’ve they’ve just had this this slow Progressive move down and they’re starting to show signs of bottoming you see spikes with with with with large volume you know that is a good sign um it usually means that that the stock has bottomed and um I’m starting to see that on a lot of these stocks especially you know in in uh gold developers gold Junior developers as

well and silver some silver developers um no absolutely like Dave one chart I need to show cuz it’s shocking me cuz I I haven’t paid attention to uranium at all but the uranium price like it completely crashed we’re at $64 uh a pound uh we were at about 100 not too long ago you can see where the chart is coming from here on the left side what what happened why is uranium unattractive anymore long done you know it’s it’s a sector that I don’t cover and I don’t really follow anymore I I I’m basically in gold silver copper

that’s what I’m concentrating on um I did really well during that copper boom in 2 you know 2003 2004 2005 right around there I did extremely well there and then uh after trying to catch the bottom a few times uh over the over the past what I think it was 2017 18 19 when I started my newsletter tried to catch the bottom and and failed and I just thought you know what um this sector is just too volatile for me I’m already in a volatile sector in in silver and I think uh I think the opportunities

for silver are more than they in uranium of course at the time I was wrong that’s when uranium really took off and you know um so I I I’ve been concentrating on Gold Silver and and copper and I’m I’m pretty much out of uranium I’m with you I’m exactly the same that’s why it’s like I actually haven’t looked at uranium in a long time only in preparation of our interview because we touched on it last time I was like oh let’s let’s catch up with Dave on uranium then I look at the price was like completely tanked and uh

yeah I can’t make Rhyme or Reason I need to do some homework on that so if you have some thoughts put it in the comments down below of course everybody um maybe Dave to wrap up like if I were to invest $100,000 right now uh how would you allocate that for me and again no no investment advice or anything in particular but just maybe summarize our conversation put a nice bow around it well um I could just I could tell you what I’ve what I’ve done myself personally you know I’ve you know even though I see you know the incredible

opportunity in in Gold stocks and I am heavily leveraged in Gold stocks I’m my my retirement account is is is heavily leveraged in minors and of course my junior account is heavily leveraged in juniors but I have more cash than I’ve ever had before uh personally so my cash position is like 20% and my physical medals position is 30% and the other 50% is in the mining sector in majors and juniors and um it’s I think it’s just the opportunity of a lifetime here because basically um you have a situation where you have an the

gold price made 40 separate all-time highs in 20124 and it’s already made nine separate all-time highs in 2025 and we’re only in February yet if you take a look at the Gold stocks nobody cares I mean this is the contrarian moment of a lifetime and every time you turn on a YouTube channel and you hear somebody say that you know people go well they’ve been they’ve been the contrarian opportunity for the past you know four years five years whatever and that’s true and if you’ve been holding the right stocks you’ve at least treaded

water or you’ve done okay you know personally you know over the past since I started my newsletter um average a average realized gain returns have been 16% which is nothing to sneeze at but it’s you know it’s not crypto and it’s not AI where they’ve you know made these ridiculous returns but I’ll take 16% in what basically has been a bare market for for for for for juniors uh but that mean reversion is is coming I think it’s really close I think it’s already started to happen and there’s like I said there’s signs that

it’s already started to happen happen but that like and also like I said that mean reversion moment isn’t going to happen in all Junior stocks like it did before you know it’s still a stock Pickers market and I think it’s going to remain a stock Pickers Market capital’s not cheap anymore um I think that’s a big reason you know I hope it stays that way absolutely I don’t want stays that way too right that just brings the Cockroaches back from underneath the bed exactly yes because this this sector is

famous for just a attracting Carnival barkers and and just uh you know Pon I don’t need to see the the Cockroaches Dan set conferences I have no interest that no exactly exactly so you know I think I think it’s a it’s a good thing and I think the opportunities are incredible here um I think the downside is is Li very limited now and the upside is huge um like I said you watch a few things watch new month’s earnings tomorrow after the close watch uh GDX 43 gdxj 54 we get monthly closes we get a monthly close next week above those

levels with Rising volume with some convincing volume then um you know the next levels that the target levels breakout levels are are 60 in the GDX and 85 in the gdxj there’s not much resistance until those those numbers so um but but we like I said we need to get retail in this space to do that and Rising volume in in GDX gdxj will signify that retail is finally started to come into this sector and like I said it starts with a a better than expected or standout quarter from Newmont uh tomorrow after the Bell yeah and we’ll

we’ll update this I just make note like because we will be posting this interview after it comes out sadly um but I promise like I promise and I hope I’ll do it I promise that I’ll do a quick intro to our in to our interview I’ll jump in and cut in and just give you an update on the numbers um so that everybody has an overview of what we’re talking about and what this could be or what this could mean so um Dave where can we send our viewers um where can they follow your work um every Friday I have a weekly

column that comes out on Kitco um you can find me there or you can find me at my website Junior minor junky with ay.com fantastic Dave wonderful conversation always appreciate chatting with you it’s almost so much fun I always I always got to stop myself cuz we’re both talking about a sector we’re both battle hardened obviously so um we got lots of War stories to share here so it’s uh it’s always a great time Dave thank you so much for joining us and everybody else thank you so much for tuning in as

you could tell I get along great with Dave uh we follow a lot of the same names we hang out with a lot of the same people and hang out at the same conferences so I I love chatting with him if if you enjoy his work and if you enjoy this conversation go check out Junior minor junky withth aw.com and leave a comment leave a like down below subscribe to our channel it’s a free way to support our work here on Sor financially we tremendously appreciate it we’ll be back with lots more this week and every other day until mid March

we’ll have a video coming out every day so set the alarm and hit that Bell icon thank you so much we’ll be back with more