The Next ‘Silver Squeeze’ Will Come In Next 18 Months (Uncut) 03-01-2025
The Next ‘Silver Squeeze’ Will Come In Next 18 Months | Shawn Khunkhun
like look at gold gold is at an alltime high but is anybody talking about gold or are they talking about crypto are they talking about um you know the Magnificent 7 are they talking about you know other asset classes so we’re in an environment right now where everything’s moving up so it’s it’s it throw out all the old ideas of $50 silver $100 silver maybe the masses don’t even wake up to this until it’s $300 [Music] we’re continue our coverage of the Vancouver resource investment conference 2025 Sean kukun joins us today he is the
CEO of Dolly Bard and Sila we’ll be talking about the future of humanity really and you know what place silver has critical minerals not just silver silver is a critical mineral but why minerals are so critical welcome to the show thanks for having me David good to see you you’re aware of the malthusian Trap English um economist he proposed the idea that we have limited resources and the population grows the scarcity of resources will become an even bigger problem um interestingly he wrote that
when the population was booming this was a 18th century Theory the population is shrinking now uh around the world especially in oecd developed countries the fertility rate in Canada and the US is below two uh in South Korea it’s like 0 9A that’s the most severe I’ve heard of all developed countries and so I wonder if we’re still going to have this issue that um malus proposed in the 19th century which is that as population growth expands the need for resources will not be met and we’re going to get a
scarcity of critical minerals so do you think we’ve seen Peak population no okay not yet I think that there’s still I I’m not a you know I have a mapped out demographic forecast myself but according to most forecasts we will be peaking around 2030 to 2050 something like that assuming their assumptions are right yeah so you’re saying the planet has a chance I if people stop having or you know don’t have more baby at the rate that they used to what what’s your take um look those are really interesting topics I will
simplify it to the ascent of man I first heard it from Rick rule from Doug Casey I believe in the ascent of man and in that Ascent there is further demand for everything and so I I buy into the theory and you know I’ve focused my strategy around one metal which is silver and what’s really interesting is if you go back a few decades 2/3 of silver was used in photography okay we’re not printing pictures everything’s digital so the the number one industrial use for that metal is gone yeah so what should have that
done for supply and demand what’s happened though is silver up picked up in EVS in photov voltaics uh use in solar in weapons so there’s actually other Industries have picked up the slack and today 55% of silver is being consumed by industry so what I see in the silver market is I see a metal that is scarce it’s not evenly distributed globally in terms of geography so the metal is found in its pure form in just a handful of countries and those countries there’s a lot of uncertainty with those governments and
so look I think we’re setting up for uh I was at a conference yesterday where Peter K hosted a panel uh he’s written books in silver uh he’s got a silver newsletter and um it looks like the setup for silver uh the the technical setup up the cup and handle formation looks like you’ve got a medal on the verge of a breakout and you know I go back to when gold broke out originally um in 2010 um you know when when the breakout occurred you know the pr prices don’t stop prices won’t stop at 50 there is no
overhead resistance so I think we’re setting up over the next 18 months for a move in silver that will have us in the triple digit the the the the issue of the deficit of silver yes could that be solved with more money let let me give you a hypothetical scenario suppose somebody were to present to you with a billion dollars today the Mandate is just to solve our energy or critical minerals crisis go find more silver you know is that could you do that with a billion dollars that just you know no you can’t
do it and the the it’s a great question and it’s a great approach because and and this is where this is what makes me really bullish on the metal 72% of the metal comes as a byproduct and the projects that throw it off are really Capital intensive these are five six7 billion doll builds and they take decades to explore Advanced permit and ultimately mine yeah and so you can’t throw money at the problem okay a billion dollars1 billion maybe a hundred billion dollar and you could you know the problem is if you look at
Silver highgrade pure silver comes in in veins okay these veins when they were mined 100 years ago 200 years ago at surface in places like Nevada or Idaho they were economic but as those resources get depleted you’re having to go further and further at depth and it’s very expensive to develop those projects so throwing money at the problem is uh is not something that we can do so what do we do um look I think what we have to do is what you know the the cure for low prices is low prices the cure for high
prices is high prices so I think the reason the silver price is up 100% in the last few years is because of the scarcity is and so what we do is we let real price Discovery occur we we if the price gets high enough there is physical silver there are stockpiles there are investors globally in the US throughout Europe who could at some point will be incentivized to bring the silver out of the vaults now the question is David what’s that incentive and there was a great gold panel here with uh Frank justra and David Galo and Grant
Williams and Alistar still and and what they what they highlighted and the same is true for silver it’s the measuring stick gold and silver are not changing but the Fiat currencies in which we measure them are being diluted and so you know for some investors what $50 might have been an incentive a few years ago but with the money printing with the deficits and with the scarcity and and now with this e EV and photovoltaics and and the use in uh military I think investors are going to want more because
their dollars aren’t going far enough what are you doing specifically Dolly vard and silver what is your part to what is your role in this so uh you know we’ve got uh we started as a very small company yeah and so when you’re small you know you want to be ambitious you want to be aggressive but it has to be measured so what we did is we started by okay we’ve we identified the problem okay miners mine they deplete inventory let’s secure their future inventory so the the strategy the vision the business
model was identify high-grade silver and build a mineral inventory a real mineral inventory not a mineral inventory that’s 2 m deep and one uh 1 M wide let’s find a bulk minable high-grade mineral inventory in a mining camp that’s been operating for 100 years and let’s go out with the best scientists and let’s have those scientists backed by investors who understand mining real investors not speculators not hedge funds so fundamental investors who understand mining so these are mining companies
yeah these are institutions that specialize in Precious Metals investing so let’s get the appropriate Capital let’s give the scientists that Capital let’s give them the time to grow that mineral inventory through state-of-the-art technology where you’re identifying veins you’re growing them but let’s also do this not just in the field but in the boardroom let’s sit down and let’s look to do a creative Acquisitions so our greatest growth has come by being financially strong and being in an environment where we’ve
taken advantage of um a creative opportunities to grow so we’re making Acquisitions and we’re making discoveries you you said to me Offline that silver is sleep walking into a squeeze i’ like to get your take on what that means and then I want to talk about Dolly Varden over more detail in just a bit so why sleepwalking we’re not paying attention so so this was a um a title of a report that came out of TD Securities and um you know I I think it built upon I think one of the best reports I’ve seen in the industry which
came out on October 7th 2024 from SCP spra Capital Partners okay but what these reports are talking about are they’re talking about the fact that um you’ve got a small group of miners that produce this stuff that industry is coming in but because investors have been hearing about Silver’s going higher Silver’s being manipulated and they’ve been hearing it for so long and they really haven’t seen the price dramatically move higher they’ve been lulled into this sense of security and this feeling that it’s never going to
happen so it’s the old you know the the Frog boiling analogy of you know the temperature’s going up to a boil but the Frog’s not jumping because even though we’ve seen the price go up 100% it’s done it quietly it’s done it in a stealth mode you know I’ve studied markets and there is you know the stealth mode of a bull market and there’s few participants the bull market climbs that wall of worry with very few participants it won’t be until silver is making headline news and it won’t make Headline News until tell like look at
gold gold is at an alltime High but is anybody talking about gold or are they talking about crypto are they talking about um you know the Magnificent 7 are they talking about you know other asset classes so we’re in an environment right now where everything’s moving up so it’s it’s it throw out all the old ideas of $50 silver $100 silver maybe the masses don’t even wake up to this until it’s $300 that’s that’s what I’m seeing play out in the gold market the the word squeeze implies some sort of action
right it’s like one focal event what is that event that’s going to squeeze the market is it going to come from the retail side and institutional realizing we need silver in our treasuries is it U miners just giving up on production for whatever reason right something is going to trigger a squeeze well I I think what could trigger the squeeze and is calling for physical delivery yes we’re in a we’re in a a business where the paper or digital Market the Futures Market yeah you know trades at at a
degree where you could you could in one day trade annual M Supply yeah okay and these are paper contracts that could be settled not with physical silver but with fiat currency so I think what’s going to cause the squeeze is investors you know what’s great like these Trump tariffs this was another part of the TD report that wasn’t in the SC SEC report because you know Trump just got elected but you know with the threat of tariffs investors all over the world and particularly in the UK want you know are
people are calling for their medal they want it in their hands they’re worried about potential tariffs they’re worried about actually you know you know possession is 9/10 of the law right you want to get that medal in your hand so Could That Be The Catalyst right all these things are building for that moment and it’s hard for me to put my finger on the calendar or the event but in the meantime the price is moving in the right direction and what’s fantastic for the industry some of the best producers all in sustaining cost to
produce the metal you know you can find great companies that are producing at 12 $13 an ounce but on average it’s probably the A6 is 20 bucks okay and then for the higher cost producers 25 27 the point is we’re finally in an territory David where it’s profitable to mine silver and that hasn’t even been the case for 12 full months but it’s uh it’s nice to see the price appreciation but in terms of the squeeze look I I think the squeeze is real I think it’s coming and um I think we’ll see it sometime in the next 18
months is there a broader industrial narrative for for for silver and the base medals as well talked about the demand for you know silver coming from certain sectors but uh what in 2025 is going to need silver the most you think need it the most um I think solar is up there as one of the the lead lead consumers in Industry uh if you look back at last year in q1 it was uh you know it was Indian investment demand and solar that took up a third of q1 yeah um so look now if you if you really talk to the real silver experts the the
David Morgans of the world uh you know the Rick rules of the world what they’ll tell you is in every great price move in history whether it was the hunt cornering the market in 1980 whether it was 2011 yeah industry doesn’t move the needle violently that’s investment demand and what silver really is is it’s gentleman’s gold right it’s gentlemen’s gold so I think what’s going to cause silver price to move is investors are going to want to get exposure to gold and central banks are already doing it and you know the wealthiest people on
the planet are doing it but for the rest of us David you and I are going to have to turn to Silver for that same uh protection where does silver fit into a new monetary regime well listen for for thousands of years silver was money right you go back to how the dollar started there was a silver component in the US dollar um and and the ratios were 16 to1 those were the ratios those were the pegs if you go back and study 5,000 years of History gold to silver to gold ratio correct so anywhere between 10 to 16 to1 okay that was where
the ratio was pegged today we’re in an environment where it’s around 85 to1 yeah it’s way out of whack and if you think about it if today more silver is being consumed in Industry when investors go to get that silver they’re going to be competing with industry for that metal and so I think we’re actually going to see the price go further than you know it ever could it go before because you’ve got the components whereas listen gold does not get consumed in Industry you know you know maybe 5% of gold goes in
Industry uh whereas silver is 55% maybe silver is just no longer a monetary medal think about it that I mean this is just a counterargument otherwise central banks will be stockpiling silver they have gold strategic reserves they don’t have silver strategic Reserves at least not to the same scale right you know look um the Russian uh Mr Putin just came out and added silver to a list of precious metals that Russia will start accumulating so I think we’re starting to see central banks um make that move
to Silver the reality is when we’re when we’re in an environment you know where there’s you know uh billions and billions and we’re even using the term trillions um you know that that represents a lot of silver at these prices so I think it’s a lot easier for the sovereigns um to go after gold than it is silver but but I get your point and I think that’s why silver has traded more like Dr copper and has reacted more to right economic demand however um if you look at the great price moves in silver
2011 1980 even some of the mini rallies we’ve had in 2020 2016 um it’s been on the back of investment demand and so what you’re questioning is is a 5,000 year history going to be challenged because you’ve got a growing use case in industry and I don’t want to bet against that 5,000 year history if you go back uh 400 years right the richest man on the planet Earth um was a gentleman in China emperor in China who started taxing his citizens in silver and so that created you know the the biggest silver reserves on the
planet above ground and it created the wealthiest individual on planet Earth and I think if we go back to that history um and that was only 400 years ago you know silver has been money and I I believe it will once again resume and the difference between gold and silver and if you look at the United States there’s a group of individuals mainly white males 45 to 80 who really celebrate silver even over gold because if you go back to that history there was a time where it was illegal to own gold but it
was not illegal to own silver so I think there’s you know I think what you’re seeing is you’re going to see a a huge percentage of the US population come out and and uh and and want to protect themselves now the younger generation like my son has actually accompanied me to this conference today and you know he’s more versed in the cryptocurrencies than he is the precious metals so I think you know the Millennials um have gone out and they’ve gone to crypto yeah and there’s been a lot of capital that’s
been diverted away from the from precious now that could be very very dangerous you know that doesn’t have the same history there’s a lot of beta from Bitcoin to NASDAQ so if we get a crash typically gold is the commodity the money the store value you want to own during uncertainty during times of War during times that the stock market potentially sells off if crypto sells off with NASDAQ yeah um you know that that’ll be a very very interesting test to this new asset class and I I I just met your son he’s younger
than the Millennials yes I think he falls into the Gen Z’s correct category Millennials gen Z’s they’re more risk on less risk adverse they like things that are volatile they like things that are Tech influenced basically new trends they like things influenced by social media very different crowd from this crowd at the conference here older crowd less Tech heavy basically the PO opposite of everything I just described how would you communicate your message to this younger audience I mean why should they look at doyard and Sila or
any Silver company for that matter yeah so I really celebrate um what crypto’s done for that generation yeah you know it’s opened them up to some of the sound money philosophy that the Austrian School preaches so I actually think crypto’s done a great service for us sure um what I Tred to explain to speculators to investors to young people is it you know if you like that volatility you know look if you’re looking for a store of wealth buy bullion okay no counterparty risk own it have it in your hands it’s a
store of wealth it’s a way to save but if you’re looking to speculate okay that’s where the equities come in and it starts with the royalty companies then goes to the producers and then goes to the Developers Advanced Explorers so why an investor would want to own Dolly vard and silver is because you’ve got a project that was once the richest silver mine in the British Empire it was Canada’s third largest silver mine it’s got a rich history there’s a big highgrade resource if you look if you put up a 12-month chart of silver I
think we did this in our last interview and you put up Dolly Varden it tracks it very well okay and so if you’re looking for exposure but the difference says as the bull market matures we’re in the early Innings silver equities will outperform the metal by 300% so last year was an interesting year silver was up 20% silj the ETF that tracks the Juniors was only up 6% you should we need to add a zero to that that’s when you know we’re in a strong stage phase two of this bull market is when you see SJ up 60% % when the when
the when the medal’s up 20 and so why own it you own it for the leverage that’s why you own it well well that no hold on the Bears would say it it hasn’t outperformed silver so therefore it’s dead don’t look at it anymore yeah I would you respond to that I think the way I would look my my Approach in investing is similar to my Approach in a lot of ways in life look I have a belief you know I spent some time recently with one of our large shareholders Eric Sprout who Eric made a name for himself by being there and
being a strong gold Advocate when everybody said he was crazy when when I got into the business in 2004 you know gold was sub $500 an ounce and there were great debates with 99% of Wall Street Bay Street that said my grandchildren’s children will never see the gold price go over 500 but there were a few brave people like Eric who said look I’ve done my homework central banks have gone from being net sellers they weren’t buyers but they were neutral they stopped selling you know when uh the ex- cheer in the UK Gordon
Brown sold half of England’s gold you know that marked the bottom of the market so what Eric identified was the bottom of a market and all the principles all the debt that was being created you know uh you look at 1980 the last time the gold price had made a move to 800 Deb had gone under rean from um 1 trillion to where is it today in the US 30 40 30 yeah 32 something like that yeah so my point here is you know you’ve got to be patient you’ve got to be focused you’ve got to have conviction on your theme um I look I I see myself as
it’s the the alligator or crocodile approach to investing I’m not running around like a like a rabbit chasing I’m waiting for what I’m looking for to walk by and then my pounds and so you know sit tight be right be a contrarian and um you know and the fact that we’re starting to see some numbers at the conference is a good sign we’re starting to see a little bit of interest and and you look at we’re in a bull market no question a nio eagle 52 we High gold price all-time high or igno wegle all-time high $ 55 billion market
cap the best in breeder performing has it trickled down to Mid tier producers develop no but but all the signs are there the price is sustainable at these levels and going higher so I think I think David I’ve got so much conviction and listen uh for anybody who hasn’t followed me before go back to September 2022 go back to September 2023 I’ve made certain calls on the silver price and they’ve aged very well here’s my and we’ll end off here here’s my question of how the way I look at it is I invest in
a company because it’s going to increase my shareholder value any company it is if I buy a stock like apple for example I can Bank on the fact that maybe Tim Cook will come up with new products down the line that people will like maybe the new iPod what whatever the case may be right same thing with any other company that I buy what about for a silver exploration company you guys aren’t producing yet um there’s no product that the average consumer can benefit from your you know existence right now where is the shareholder value and
how is that going to be added for your strategy I know every CEO has a different strategy so so I’ve been operating at a time where capital’s been scarce it’s been very difficult so I presented this morning I presented Dolly Varden a dollar a share 32 million in cash $300 million valuation $140 million million ounce metal endowment last year we were 75 cents a share yeah we had 10 million in cash and the year before and the year before what I’ve done over the last 5 years is I’ve built a company
from 20 million to a high of 450 it’s pulled back here and I think this is why I’ve got a lot of conviction in the name right now it’s representing some incredible value but I’ve demonstrated an ability in a bare Market to build a junior that every year I come here the price is higher I haven’t done a Down Round financing but how is the valuation of the company determine if uh there isn’t a change of production for example you’re and you know I was asked that question this morning yeah um and and
you know what it’s all companies are valued for different reasons sure right the greatest value Creation in our business is on a discovery right okay it’s that part of the lon curve when a discovery is occurring so how one one metric to Value pre-production companies is their mineral inventory sure and and so you could apply a percentage of the value of their resource yeah and you can express that as a for give you example let’s take uh doly vard yes and let’s take 140 million ounce silver inventory
and let’s say we we took and said we’re going to give the company a 10% value 10% of where the spot price of the metal is so if the spot price of silver is $30 we’re going to attribute a $3 10% of per ounce in the ground so we’re discounting the build we’re discounting the operating cost and so as we grow that mineral inventory that’s how we can assign a value let me let me Express this a different way so the company has a net asset value depending on the inferred and indicated resources right how do you add premium to that net asset
value so by growing that mineral inventory I see and also depending on what category of where in the estimate are they widely spaced in furred ounces are they tighter spaced uh in uh indicated ounces are they really tight spaced measured reserves so the more confidence we have does the company have a permit in hand does is the company financed for the construction so all these things are are going to play into the multiple that you’re trading and so we’re in a time right now where you know unfunded developers in the gold space
are trading at 0. 2 npv yeah right uh historically they would trade at one right um so you know I think we’re at a time right now this is the one thing know the disparity between metal price and Equity has never been wider and don’t take that from me take that from the legends of the business take that from the Frank juas the Eric sproutz the Rick rules the guys who’ve seen multiple Cycles who’ve been investing for 40 years professionally and and making billions of dollars doing it I was surprised at
how low the attendance is at this conferences so far I mean I don’t I I I mean the interest right now is just despite this incredible Bull Run that we’ve had interest doesn’t seem to be at an all-time high is that indicative of anything well listen may maybe people can do due diligence at home right maybe they don’t need to be here physically right and I think that’s why it’s so important for me to come onto your program and to talk to people because most people don’t need to be here let’s finish off here give us a fun fact about
you that we may not know you know who is Shan cucko what’s his VIs for the mining sector um look it’s just to follow those who’ve gone before me it’s kind of a boring okay boring boring thing but um look I just I want to be remembered for how we treat our employees how we in treat the communities uh no one’s going to remember the grams per ton the earnings per share but they’ll say okay we we trust him he’ll stay in the hot seat when things get tough he’ll share the bad news like he’ll celebrate the
good news and uh I just want you know I want that Investor’s trust and I celebrate the fact that we’ve been able to cultivate that trust and it’s given us a currency in this market and I want to see how far we can take it and really my ambition is I want to build a top 10 silver Equity okay let’s follow up next time and see how you get there okay thanks for having me on David always a pleasure always a pleasure to host you Sean thank you for being here and thank you for watching
