Stocks & Bonds Will Impact Gold & Silver (Uncut) 03-04-2025

Michael Oliver: Stocks & Bonds Will Impact Gold & Silver More Than Most People Are Ready For

especially in this day and age right now it is very important to look at those because you can’t just look at gold and say well gold did this gold did baloney you’ve got to look at the context of what’s going on with these other major tectonic plates the stock market the bond markets foreign exchange Etc because they’re having they’re going to have far they’re having and will have far more impact on one another especially in this coming year than most people are ready for Welcome to the morning Market and medals with Vince

Lancy where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious medals news to get you ready for your day and now here’s Vince good morning everyone I’m Vince Lancy and today I’m taking off but I’m leaving something very special for Chris Marcus and the Arcadia economics crew over the weekend Sunday at about 3 p.m. goldf fix interviewed Michael Oliver of MSA technicals the interview lasted about an hour and 45 minutes and it is excellent in my opinion based on the insight and information given by Michael

on Gold Silver and miners as well for this extended excerpt for our friends at Arcadia we’re going to give about 32 minutes covering the introduction as well as his comments about the most recent activity in Gold leading up to Sunday specifically I’m referring to the Steep selloff after the new alltime high he covers that rather uh concisely and excellently so please enjoy this gift uh to you guys and uh be sure to uh catch the rest of it uh on gold fix since that interview gold has rallied $35 for Sunday Monday

and is currently up $30 as we look at the markets on Tuesday morning so Michael was pretty much spot on on calling a potential turnaround have a great day and enjoy good afternoon I’m Vince Lancy and the founders group is joined today by Michael Oliver a technical analysis Guru extraordinaire although he wouldn’t say that uh but I will say for him um I’d like to uh uh say thank you for coming Michael and uh we have some questions for you and and uh we have some subscribers in our group uh to your stuff so

um let’s start let’s start from the beginning most everyone here knows you by name and reputation but I suspect when this goes out next week there will be people not so familiar with your work so by introduction then Michael can take it uh for those unfamiliar Michael Oliver is the owner and operator of momentum structural analysis now MSA provides unique technical research to to the financial industry both institutions as well as individual investors the research covers all four major exchange

traded asset categories stocks Commodities debt and foreign exchange Michael thank you for coming how are you doing good to be here thanks um surfing your site in anticipation of this and I noted your career path with interest first uh you and I started at the same firms widely different cultures uh but under the same roof uh the same firms nonetheless uh on Wall Street but more specifically my interest was in how your work and success there afforded you an opportunity to focus on developing uh

your firm uh momentum structural the company as well as the framework uh would you mind sharing a little bit of that yeah uh in April 75 I was hired by EF Hutton in New York their headquarters of their commodity division the guy ran the department was David Johnston was also chairman of the comex at that time in fact he was chairman during most of that period from mid ’70s to the early 80s when you know the bunker hunt era okay but silver was a big deal uh I didn’t know a darn thing about technical

analysis my background was political philosophy I was going to be a political philosophy professor and I said nope Global stagflation they don’t hire Libertarians anyway so I I didn’t do it and a friend of mine had joined mirl Lynch and he said come on in the water’s fine fine okay so I I was hired by Hutton and I apprenticed under the the chairman of comx David Johnston head of Hutton and he was just a rudimentary technician you know bar charts in fact back then you plotted your charts by hand okay right 1970s okay and uh so I

learned basic technical analysis from him you know how to draw trend lines how to plot the bars all that stuff uh and I evolved beyond that okay later I left Hutton and the headquarters in 76 and went out into the re uh field of the field offices and became a Futures broker as such and so I handled customer clients up through 1992 and then I started MSA why did I start MSA in the 80s uh I started plotting momentum by hand meaning rather than just a simple price chart with some moving average overlaid which any idiot can see on his

quote screen uh I oscillated price in relation to given moving averages meaning the the moving average is a zero line and you plot whether the bar is above it or below it and you create an oscillator rather than simple price chart and that creates a different visual picture of what that market is doing than what you see on price quite often sometimes momentum in price will be in agreement but at tops and bottoms quite often they’re in disagreement and so price is still beating its chest at a high and momentum saying uhuh you’re

broken okay and you could do it on different time scales you know you if you’re a short-term Trader you could do it on a daily basis but if you I was looking at long-term stuff so I was plotting monthly bars of the S&P 500 and back in 87 of course we had this great big up move and peaked in the summer of 87 August September roll back over and by the time you opened October you broke nothing on price but you broke a very clear floor that had developed on a quarterly momentum oscillator where I plot each bar in

relation pardon me for boring each bar no no no we’re here for this in relation to a 3/4 moving average that’s an average that doesn’t change its gear position and once every quarter so it’s not like a 200 day that shifts every day so it goes clunk clunk clunk but anyway there was a Structure on the momentum chart was a floor that had been repeatedly used for two years but this Market would drop down to that average and turn up drop down and at a certain level on the oscillator it broke it in the first week of October and by the

second week we’ crashed right and so I got a smack in the face saying hey this is pretty good I caught it I didn’t catch it big time all my customers and I had put positions and uh took them off frankly a little too early I took them off Monday morning of the crash day and if I just sat around for the rest of the day i’ made a lot more right but anyway who doesn’t who doesn’t do that I know I know but anyway it did teach me that hey this this tool is good okay so I really went to work on it I developed it on

different time scales I developed different aspects of the tool and so I call it momentum structure in 1992 wacovia Bank heard about my work their headquartered in North Carolina at the time and that’s where I was too uh and they asked for me to provide soft dollar research I don’t know what soft dollar was then but what it is is when they generate Commission in executing trades in their trust department so forth they could pay a certain amount of those commissions to research outside research it’s legal you know is approved by the

government okay so I I became a soft dollar seller of my research right and and it was only institutional clients I had up through 2014 and then I opened it up to retail subscribers and we look at all four major asset categories like you said and especially in this day and age right now it is very important to look at those because you can’t just look at gold and say well gold did this gold did baloney you’ve got to look at the context of what’s going on with these other major tectonic plates the stock market the

bond markets foreign exchange Etc because they’re having they’re going to have far they’re having and will have far more impact on one another especially in this coming year than most people are ready for but when we apply our technicals our long-term momentum Trend technicals we see a stock market that is highly likely at a top the index we’re most focused on right now is the NASDAQ 100 S&P has already broken its shin bone as far as we’re concerned using our our technicals look at a price chart and say well no

it’s just congesting but momentum says no you broke it uh that chart there is just a price chart by the way that doesn’t show momentum but uh the situation in Gold has been positive since our metrics on annual momentum since February of 2016 when it came up from 1,50 low got up to 1140 and at that point this is a daily oscillator of something uh anyway I think a nastic or something no this is probably gold uh probably gold yeah yeah but anyway I just wanted to put some I just wanted to put some actually this is

probably a better chart to put up to just show a picture of momentum at work right that’s a that’s an oscillator of don’t know what I guess that’s a GDX I’m not sure yeah yeah that would probably be GDX because you can see that it oscillated about five to the highs will get about five to seven points over the zero line meaning right would in these each of these monthly bars would get up to about five six seven points above its three Monon average and then lows it would drop down to about five six points

below and then when it was a range and you you can see there this is February of 25 I’m not sure what this is this may not be GDX then yeah I tried to get cute and cut off things so I didn’t give away too much proprietary point cut momentum develops structures and when you look at a price chart you’re looking for structures which people draw trend lines they draw floors they draw ceilings and you get breakouts quote unquote well momentum will generate those structures but quite often it’ll generate them well

before you ever see it on a price chart and so momentum will tend to break out before price this what happened in February 16 gold was coming up 90 bucks off its bare low and since then we’ve never altered our long-term annual momentum trend of gold it’s still positive despite all the pauses the couple hundred buck pullbacks here and there nothing has changed to alter that view and um right now we think that probably this year especially when the bub of the stock market breaks and we think it is the biggest bubble in US

Stock Market history by any metric time duration multiple gains reasons why it occurred look at an M2 chart you’ll see look at a Fed funds chart you’ll see we were drug in infused for the since 2009 free money you know right 10 of those 15 years money was free fed funds right even when they raised rates you know a year ago it got up to five plus % that was still historically dirt cheap for fed funds rate going back 50 years I mean it’s still so we had that we had that 10 years ago I remember in 09 when

they raised rates yeah yeah yeah and so it it didn’t didn’t stop the stock market it still infused with free money well anytime you make a decision whether it’s an investor a company buying property to build a new Factory hiring new workers state government going to build new highways federal government spending all these are based on variables one of the big variables is what is the cost of money and if you’re taught falsely by the central bank here and elsewhere that money is effectively free or certainly

Freer than it would otherwise be if it were Market priced you make a decision based on that assumption but it’s a false assumption it’s unreality so we’ve had unreality in effect monetarily speaking since the FED went berserk in 2009 onward and again after the co event they went berserk again but there’s a point at which the berserk ends and even the bubbles that we had like 2000 the dotcom bubble okay right that was a period also of this type of monetary process nothing compared to what we’ve had okay so even the bull

market was only handful of years it was a doubling or tripling of the indexes no just to throw this in there for those of you young in 99 to 2000 it was raising rates that stopped the market and then they eased rates and then it collapsed yeah yeah was there was and they cut rates in uh I think it was May no excuse me uh they quit raising rates in May of 2000 right right in the middle of the topping action right and in January of 2001 they cut rates twice we were only marginally off the high at

that point it was it’s amazing because in in ‘ 08 the same thing happened in ‘ 08 we7 they cut rates in Octo in September I’m sorry I’m sorry yeah 07 in September 18th of 07 which is when we started cutting rates again here September 18th they cut 50 basis points who made a new all-time high and then it was a crash after that so I’m looking at the parallel saying it’s kind of interesting how when we start cutting rates after a raid hike regime that’s when the market kind of craps out any yeah and and it doesn’t work anymore

cutting rates that’s right doesn’t save the assets they want to save because reality takes over and those assets are bloated too much so even the reality of the internet bubble which was that it’ll change your life well it did far more than we we expected positively and yet the NASDAQ 100 dropped 82% in that two-year period so you know it got overpriced and even Fed rate Cuts couldn’t save it I think we’re at the same position now but when those when those bubbles break that money goes somewhere and you go back and examine

each top in the SNP or look at even the da in 29 through 32 where there was no gold then it was illegal okay but you bought homestake mine it went up a th% in those years you know the go biggest gold miner round uh and you go back to the 19 mid 73 72 top and the stock market collapsed to 74 all during that time gold was going up 2000 to 2002 Gold bottom and started its Advance 2007 to 2011 stock market topped went down through 2009 and go went up all the way through 2011 it was an alternative it’s happen are you it’s

happening now a quick question about about like you You’ you’ve asked one of the other questions I want to ask about momentum but specifically about stocks because I’m interested in that right now as well right um um do you see a momentum structure that’s breaking or that has broken where like where are you in that momentum picture right now no when we look at long-term Trend metrics that would be like measuring price versus its three-year average I don’t care where the average is whether you get below it

or not that doesn’t matter that much sometimes it’s the structure on momentum and that structure shifted into a positive zigzag back in early 2016 and it has remained in a positive zigzag Trend situation since with a with a that selloff remember in 2022 when gold dropped from over 2,000 down towards 1600 even that was not enough to convince us that it’s over we said this is a bear trap because why anual momentum said you’re not breaking you’re going down to support again and the price chart looked like

hell but we said it’s a bear trap boom within months you’re back to the high right that was during the that was during the raid regime Putin invades Ukraine the FED starts to raise rates in March or April and then everything goes to zero and then just bottom even you know everybody thinks War causes gold to go up baloney if you sold the war event in February March of 2022 remember the Russians invaded Ukraine that was the peak late February and so off two weeks later gold Commodities peaked and gold

had the drop of 15% okay you and uh it was back to its highs later but the war didn’t take gold up it took it down right probably peace now is a reason to buy gold okay I know I’m struggling with that right now like oh peace is gonna break out maybe we should we should buy gold just what nobody thinks okay don’t give me more excuses to be bullish right Michael don’t do that but anyway I have a question I have a question about um about speaking of that because I know that they want to talk about that if I can

um recently um the the banks have finally jumped on top they seem to be getting behind the bull market calling for levels ranging from 3100 to 3300 to I just got a report from Goldman today they’re I mean it’s it’s bearish ultimately but they’re they’re um they’re telling their clients to buy these calls for 3500 prints in December but all Shenanigans aside please put these price Bank Target in the context of your own feeling about the current phase that metals are entering you know I know that you’re

looking at it like seven or eight times you know these targets are just BS but you know I think people need to hear that you know how many times have they raised them you know you go back and look at Goldman Sachs or whoever you’re citing and they probably raised those targets five times in the last year okay so it’s meaningless you and it’s always in 100 Point increments you know it’s you know um not seeing the reality and the reality is this is the biggest asset bubble the US the US India and Japan

have seen they’re also bubble stock markets okay so when we go they’re going to go too in fact we’ve already got breakage in in both the Sinex and the Nick a oh there you go we have a guy here who’s going to ask you about the the SX you know the the the BSC so I’m with you those markets have been moving with us slightly less percent gain than we’ve had but still massive massive gains China for example is not a bubble it’s it’s it’s it’s only double the price it was in 2009 S&P is ninefold NASDAQ 100’s

18-fold okay so there’s no comparison but India and Japan do have Bubble stock market conditions and they like the S&P have already triggered our quarterly momentum sell numbers this past month and thank you CeX okay we’re waiting on the NASDAQ 100 our number Friday and in the last 15 minutes rallied and closed back above it as if it knew and it’s not some round number either it’s some very precise number so right but once we break we’re arguing that at that point the money flow out of that bubble and not all the

money gets burned up okay it’s not like it all gets destroyed the money smart money moves it somewhere else they’re already buying t-bonds just recently t-bonds know something and it’s a it’s an asset flow gold has already been going up the whole time I mean you know most people don’t know this but I’ll give you some numbers to deflate certain Notions hold on last 12 months February Clos last year to February Clos this year gold and silver both up either side of 38% silver and gold by the way stock market either

side of 16% which gold and silver up more than double over the last 12 months than what the stock markets doing okay it is no okay this just this year January and February so two months of this year gold and silver up either side of SE about 7.7% right year okay S&P up 1% 1.2% nasda 100 down. 6% less than 1% but they’re flat gold so seven almost 8% and yet nobody’s noticing this what’s going on it’s a money flow and when you punch a hole in that big bubble and that River starts to flow it’s going to exacerbate

what we see in gold and so right right it’s starting to feel you as you’re saying it I’m hearing I’m hearing my one of my last questions is about stagflation I’m hearing the whole this is the beginning of a leak into stagflation you know what I mean so anyway it could or could not be that’s we had that in the late 70s and look what happened come exploded gold and silver exploded a lot more I know as you know as a kid I remember uh a conversation with my father I was in Philadelphia in 1976 I mean you this is like right in

the cusp of your career change right it’s 75 and inflation has backed off and stocks have ralli we have no money in the stock market but we run a business 76 comes and Philadelphia is the cleanest city on earth and everything inflation is at zero and the FED is lowering rates and my father I go this is great everything’s going to be good now your business is going to do he’s like he’s like Vincent they’re just he didn’t say this expression but basically was saying Vincent they’re just painting a turd because of the bicentennial and

when this is over the inflation comes back and things will be worse than where they were and don’t you know 1977 to 1981 you know that was it that was the end of of the economy anyway so that’s my yeah stocks Were A Wasteland really from the mid 70s through 1982 I mean they did this you know but basically draw a line sideways it was it was dead body okay and gold you know went from 30 bucks in 1975 to 200 backed off to 100 and then went to 850 by 1980 from a low near 100 Eightfold move it’s had

two of those by the way in the past uh 50 years Eightfold moves well if we have an eight-fold move given the crisis factors out there that are far worse than they were before we’d go to 8,000 bucks because our B was 1,50 and that’s your that’s your key chart I throw that out as just a a note to people to pay attention to you know they’re measuring every $50 move in Gold stand back and look at but when the stock market breaks that will help exacerbate it for a couple reasons the money flow but two

you know what the central banks will do then well they’ll probably print again right Oh They’ll print like crazy and I don’t mean just the Fed I mean boj ECB whole deal they’re going to go nuts we’re going to get stimulus checks again Michael remember they started that whole stimulus check nonsense yeah yeah fine again that’s gold loves it you know gold loves it flowers falling on the parade it just loves it so anyway that’s where I think we are I think we’re at the acceleration phase in the monetary

medals we’re no longer is it for silver four steps up and two steps back and gold three steps up one step back it’s no longer arm wrestling it’s more verticality and by the way I also argue that I don’t think when this was over on the upside that it means a top that it means a down a bare market and a crash we’re in a different world now a lot right so higher higher PL toing higher and sideways is what you’re saying well it could be the gold that governments finally wake up and they mon they monetize their currencies

you know with gold and silver uh and it no longer is it just Fiat whatever we want to do right and the world will change what will cause that uh massive destruction uh which breaks certain assumptions uh certain institutions that now seem dysfunctional like a Federal Reserve you know you know have they done good since the you know past 100 years well they create monetary boom bust and sure enough you can lay a stock chart shift it one year to the right and there’s your stock market okay right boom bu cycle pretty soon people will

wake up and say you know this hasn’t worked so a lot of changes are going to occur in this particular Global Market situation well that’s that’s the fourth turning that’s the uh yes that’s that’s the fourth turning type stuff or the or the I I would call it collapse of complexity like all these agencies to to keep it simple they’re just as functional and they’re no longer what’s the word you were in an interview with Alis there mclab the expression he used was they’re no longer fit for purpose yeah therefore they’re dispensable you

know the English way of saying you know you’re worthless to us um in your most you know look I know people are going to ask about I know people are going to ask about minors that’ll be like the hard question but I wantan to I want to ask about current events and your most with regards to goal this again we’re not panicking about the short here I just want to hear um I think people would like to hear um what it means to you and again we’re all big picture people here so in your most recent report just to

put a little frame on this um about gold you called the recent pullback a benign correction thus far now can you uh elaborate on that would you care to elaborate on that well in between 2000 we surged in Gold up to $270 price that’s this summer summer of 2020 yeah gold went to a a maximum 15% range most of it was really a 10% range up down up down three times getting over 2,000 right wouldn’t launch that was still part of the uptrend it was just a massive pause in March of 2024 a year ago almost we put out a

report saying okay sideways is over we’re resuming the uptrend the period okay gold then was just above 2000 Silver was 25 to 26 look where it is now GDX the gold mining ETF was 31 a half right now it’s around 40 okay they surged but if you examine every pullback in that surge in our weekend report we’re doing that for our subscribers just just making a point look at every single pullback gold is produced since coming up out at March of 2024 and there have been multiple backs four five 6% one was 9% and yet they

were all when they’re over back to the highs okay a lot more v-shaped bottoms you’re right yeah they were like v-shaped bottoms and yet it every single one of those by the way the current drop is 4.3% okay every single one of those was a fake out where everybody out there you could see it on the internet the free analysis it’s over it’s going to correct to this level it’s going to go down for six months that’s etc etc and it wasn’t it rarely ever got to where they thought it would go and it didn’t last long and

it certainly wasn’t the top and now we have another one that’s really smaller than most of the other breaks over the last year and yet they’re saying oh that’s it that’s it no it’s not it’s just another Hiccup and when we run short-term momentum and we show that in our weekend report like measuring daily action for example and un ulating it against a 3-day average so you get an oscillator the oscillator is in a downtrend but it’s got structure what we call structure meaning a clear trend line such that if you HIC up just a bit like

you get gold back up anywhere near 2900 in the next several days right in the upper 2800s even uh you’re gonna break out and go back up again other words the break is over I think that’s the chart that I put up there I think you’re talking about that uh I didn’t issue it yet but it what you got there show the price I mean the most recent one it’s a okay well this is uh yeah this is as of Thursday so that doesn’t show Friday here but right doesn’t show Friday daily momentum of U well this would be gold

yeah okay yeah uh you could see that its oscillator highs back in January get gold up to 60 to 70 bucks over the zero line what’s the zero line it’s a three-day moving average very short-term metric you know it’s a minor it’s this minor Trend okay but look is it’s developed the downtrend structure there Words If This Were price chart you would draw that line that green line and you could see you rally up to it you fail it’s descending and right now in fact the line goes a little lower because you’re

missing Friday here but right you get back above the zero line which is in red that’s a first thumbs up you get above the green line it’s saying hey that’s it guys that was your Decline and in price that’s going to occur looking out to let’s say Tuesday or Wednesday if you get gold even back up toward 29 00 you know right now we’re just below 2950 2850 so and silver we’re using the May contract now you get it up about a percent above where it closed Friday there was about 30 40 cents it’s going to break out over a

similar structure meaning momentum says hey you had your correction now look at this momentum chart it’s been descending for over a month price only recently broke price lagged to this decline right it’s just the same is going to happen the other way when momentum breaks out price will barely be off its low and it’s not even going to realize there’s a structure there when you look at price chart but on momentum you can see a very clear structure and this let let me quote you from the report you put out I

think Thursday and it’s about this chart and it’s exactly what you said but in but using different terminology the problem let’s say we let’s say we want to be bearish here this is I think you know pretty important what you said here the problem with being negative here is that daily momentum’s cooling off corrective process is now three waves to the downside and involves 19 now 20 trading days momentum circled in black um finally closing below the zero line after holding above it on closes for the prior 13 days yeah you’d be

ahead today by a few dollars in some this is what MSA terms a benign correction and if you look at that from from how how we look at stuff on goix not knowing anything about this is a sure not knowing anything about how you calculate look at all the time it spends above and look at all the time it spends below mostly it’s above and we’ve been in a structure using that green dotted line or blue dotted line on the way down we’ve been in a bare structure for 19 days and it just now got below zero so I

would say just now inflicted enough pain where people think oh my God it’s all over gold uh in fact momentum says exhausted okay uh and again if you uptick and break through the green line you know like I said later in the week like Tuesday or Wednesday you get up at 2900 or you’re breaking out okay period fing uh right so you know momentum says something totally opposite and you said look at the probes below zero line they tend to be briefer well this bullish bias right it is this confirms your

intermediate and long-term bias when you look at this IRS that yes so and it tells me this yeah we’ve been in a a daily momentum corrective process for a lot of days here in fact price only produced the downturn last handful of days momentum said I’ve already been in it and so price says let me join too late momentum is ready to turn up again we’ll see I want to share something with with with the with everyone here we’re all focused on the information and obviously we try and we try and uh couch it you

know information for us is an explanation of price action afterwards right so take a look at this throughout the last 19 days momentum has made lower highs and lower lows but the market for a good portion of that was making higher highs and higher lows kind of like right making new Highs but on you know less volume less oomph less follow through and all during that time the Press was like gold squeeze deliveries repatriation you know we talked about it too but never just a re never has a reason to buy the point is momentum as

this indicator shows was telling you don’t get too excited about what you read get more excited about what the price will do a week from now that’s what I say anyway and it finally did a stinger you know in the last few days price gave him a stinger on the downside it was fact it was all only last week he went from the high to low last week that’s right I think you made your final High last week on Monday or something and uh so now everybody’s scared but momentum says no I’m exhausted all I got

to do is pause and uptick a bit and I’m going to blow the structure out which case that you’ve got yet another drop in Gold over the last year which look bad and then suddenly you know it’s gone so we’ll see in the next few days if they don’t beat the hell out of gold then uh it’s over this thing’s going to wrap up and I suspect they’re not going to beat the hell out of it I think it probably is going to show some signs of stability in turn uh I’m Vince thank you so much uh again uh Michael for coming and

you’re welcome to come back uh any anytime you like vent thank you vent well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and medals with Vince Lancy we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed Financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial adviser before making any decisions and thanks for watching