Soar Financially (Uncut) 01-14-2025

Why GOLD Will Hit $3,100 in 2025 | Florian Grummes

there has been a change in in in the seasonal pattern and it has played out again this pattern that we’ve seen over the last 12 to 15 years when gold usually finds an important low or a turning point mid of December around the last f1c meeting of the Year usually gold Ries into spring even sometimes early summer gold R to my first Target 2535 it did everything that we expected or that I expected over over the last year we’ve seen some multi consolidations but overall the uptrend was strong and gold made a new all-time

high at $2,790 uh end of October it’s a healthy consolidation we’re seeing here and my next price Target is $3,100 round about hello and welcome to sore financially a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro my name is Kai Hoffman I’m the Ed Jr mining guy over on next and of course you’re host of this Channel and I’m looking forward to welcoming Florian gumes he’s a financial analyst he’s a technical Trader as well and we’re going to talk gold and silver I I don’t think I’ve ever had him on the program I’ve known

him for a decade I think but I’ve never had him on the program I know we’ve chatted we chat at every conference that we run into each other and I really like his gold analysis he’s usually pretty spoton when it comes to his forecasts so I’m excited to have him on he’s a presenter and keynote speaker at the precious metals conference and other events now before I switch over over to my guests though do me a favor hit that like And subscribe button it’s a free way to support us and we tremendously

appreciate it thank you so much now floran it is great to have you on the program finally and happy New Year to you thank you Kai for having me it’s a pleasure to be here happy New Year to you and all the viewers yeah health and wealth I I stole that from somebody last year and I keep sticking with it I kind of like that health and wealth it just Rhymes I like it um Flor let’s Dive Right In we have quite a bit to discuss today gold and silver is the topic and the focus here of course but maybe we’ll

start with a quick recap it’s only January 14th so we’re still allowed 14th right yeah 14th we’re still allowed to do that um since you’re technical analyst like let’s start maybe like did gold and silver behave the way um you expected it to behave in 2024 and maybe it why has it or why hasn’t it well I think IED a a breakout above that long-term resistance at $270 and it happened uh with vengeance in end of February and gold R to my first Target 2535 pretty much exactly at Beaver Creek we reached that Target and um yeah

overall I think it it it it behaved well it performed well it did everything that we expected or that I expected over over the last year we’ve seen some multi-month consolidations but overall the uptrend was strong and gold uh made a new all-time high at $2,790 uh end of October and since then it’s basically consolidating first we got a big pullback down to 201535 which has been the low so far and uh basically over the last two months gold is going sideways somehow in a triangle consolidating that massive run

higher over the last year and um yeah it’s been a very strong uh Bull Run last year um silver has been a little bit lagging I mean it it just mirror the performance of gold so to speak but it didn’t show real life on its own which actually uh told me already in end of October when I warned that that we would get that pullback uh due to the the Trump election and everything uh it told me back then already that this probably might not be a long-term top at these $2,790 but just a short to midterm top

uh and because silver has not shown up to the party yet so that’s still missing and I think it will come maybe it comes in the next few months until late spring early summer maybe it takes a bit longer but uh overall I think the the bull market is intact it’s a healthy consolidation we’re seeing here and my next price Target is $3,100 roundabout no fantastic Flor like you just used the word Health you know my my next question was about the health of the chart itself as well I look at it over the last 12 months I see like

really strong moves early March like are there any gaps or anything that need to be filled when you look at from a technical side or is is is that done with the consolidation is healthy as you said like are we good like on a from a chart perspective alone well there’s one open Gap uh my friend and this is far away it’s at 1810 so I I don’t know how we’re going to go there without a massive financial crisis and a liquidity crash and everything so uh that’s far away I don’t see any way how gold could

go there by just doing its own thing you know it might be intermarket correlation everything’s crashing like the financial crisis 2008 back then gold lost 30% within six months so that would be something where it could close that Gap at 18 10ish but uh I don’t see it happening anytime soon um so no I think the technical charts are intact uh we are seeing that the $2600 level has held I said that most likely the Turning Point the the the the trend change will happen around the last fomc meeting in

mid of December and so far it happened so gold recovered the low came in at 2585 and just last Friday it was nearly touching 2,700 again trying to break out of this this triangle it has failed so far so there was a little bull trap uh on last Friday um yesterday gold came down a bit but overall the the trend is higher there is no doubt about it would take uh actually a low below that 2535 which we’ve seen in mid November and then we could discuss if there is maybe an a downtrend de developing but

right now I don’t see it uh I think gold is holding that $2,600 support level and it just might take another few weeks until it’s able to break above 2700 and in 2720 is the next resistance and from there we will be quickly most likely testing the alltime high so um no there’s nothing to worry about yeah um what is supporting the gold price right now when you look at the chart because when we spoke in November we saw each other around November 14th give or take a few days I think and you said oh like if if it you

know if it doesn’t hold we could go to $2,200 that’s sort of stuck with me as well but now I look at the chart it’s like pretty much the day we spoke it turned around and and support kicked in the question is like where is that support coming from floran well I mean the there is always apparently new buyers coming into the market right at these lower prices so if gold drops to 2535 it seems that it attracts enough buyers more than sellers that the prices can recover I mean in the end of the day

it’s that simple I think we heard that China is coming back to the market buying physically so the People’s Bank of China officially announced it and presented numbers for November and December so obviously that’s an important driver we know that this whole gold rally uh that started with the breakout uh or let’s say it started at at the low at 1810 one and a half years ago in October 23 and this whole rally has been driven by strong physical demand uh out of China from the Chinese Central Bank and

some other Emerging Market central banks and we also know that if we look at the Gold ETFs in the western world that there’s no real interest there is not a lot of inflow in fact most of the last one and a half years we’ve seen outflows while gold price has been rising so that clearly tells us there’s not a lot of demand in the western world it’s all coming from the east from Asia from China from India from Emerging Market countries and um I think that’s the main driver and that’s the physical demand

and that also basically explains why most of the mining stocks have been lagging or not really showing up to the party uh because uh it’s it’s a physical gold price thing happening in in Asia so um and I think that story will continue of course geopolitics have played a big uh part as well and um even though Trump says that he wants to uh basically stop the war in Ukraine we know that there’s a lot of hotpots in the world and we know that these problems will not go away uh it’s more likely that they actually will

intensify over the next few years independ dependently of what’s going on in Ukraine yeah no there there’s so many shocks or like macro factors that are weighing on on on the precious metals in particular I’ll get to those uh in a second because you you mentioned something earlier in your intro um the the correlation between gold and silver is an interesting one because you said um silver hasn’t shown up yet and uh it sounded like gold needs silver to show up before gold can break out as well I

just want to clarify that because that’s what it sounded like to me Florian like does gold need silver to break out no no no then you misunderstood me so okay what we know from the past is that usually silver is always lagging and for most of a bull run whether it’s a three months Rally or whether it’s a three-year bull run over or it’s the whole bull market over 10 years and I’m referring to the the bull market 2001 to 2011 if you remember the time that silver really showed up to the party and

did its own thing happened in the last year of those 10 years and silver went from 17 to 50 within eight months and until then most of the time silver investors got disappointed because Silvera only very quickly at the end of a of a run of a rally showed up in the sector um but but never really uh exploded higher right and the pullbacks have always been sharp and big and painful so it’s exactly what we’re seeing now silver is trying to leave that covid trading range it has been trading between let’s say 20 and $30

roughly speaking over the last four or five four and a half five years and it’s trying to break out of that range and that means it has to sustainably leave the $30 level behind it and we’ve seen a a 12year high in October at 3489 for silver which was a nice rally but it came back hard and it’s trading currently below $30 uh the $30 Mark is still inside so I’m not too worried here um gold doesn’t need silver uh but silver needs gold for most of the way higher and then at some point it’s doing its own thing and and and that’s what’s

still missing here and and I assume it will happen and unfortunately it also always means a warning signal for the whole precious metals rally because once silver really shows up and it’s doing its own thing it means that the end of a bull run is actually near yeah that that that has me worried cuz if silver starts picking up tremendously uh do do should we start maybe reallocate some of the funds we have in in in the gold space right but uh we haven’t seen it yet so we got time I talked about the first

bull market 2001 to 2011 it was 10 years and Within These 10 years we’ve seen many rallies that lasted a few months we’ve seen a few rallies that lasted eight nine 10 months and overall there was also like time frames where gold overall ried for two three years with interruptions right but um the real end of this whole bull market happened when when silver did its own thing for eight nine months okay and it went from 17 to 50 so imagine what that means right now it it would mean probably silver would

go from $30 to $100 in eight months and that would tell you okay now it’s really time to be careful we are probably in for a longer break in this whole precious metals uh uh rally um but we’re not there at all so um think the party is in front of us so there is no reason to to be worried here qu question floran is like is is this time different like the the sort of what do you call it silver silver price seems to be influenced by other factors that it maybe has been in the past um is it a different Market this time or just

you know it’s same old same old like don’t worry about it silver behaves the way it always does look I mean you asked me at the beginning to review last year I mean one of the most interesting factors for last year with Silvera was that we’ve seen a double digit premium in the Shanghai physical markets for most of the year right and we know that silver for four years already is in a deficit we know that it’s very difficult to extend Mine Supply we know that roughly speaking 800 million silver ounces a year that’s more

or less what the mining industry is able to supply but we know that there’s um lots of demand from China from the solar industry uh and and and there’s new no new minds coming coming on so um I think the fundamental analysis for silver is very strong here I I think there there is a market that is desperately in need of more Supply and it’s not coming it’s not showing up it’s not there and and so yeah it’s just a question of time I understand that if you look only at these fundamental numbers people are questioning why is it

not already happening but that’s the nature of silver it’s always lagging and then sudden shows up brutally and violently and again it’s it’s still outstanding it will happen maybe I’m most likely it will happen over the next few months that’s been my expectation I I published a few papers over the last few months where I said I assume there’s a very good chance that Silva at some point will kick in and um remember the summer of 2020 I mean Silva was was beaten down in the co crash to down to 1112 and then in the summer of 2020

within like a few weeks it ried from $20 to $30 50 50% that’s what silver can do so um it doesn’t take too much for a rally here from slightly below 30 to $50 in the next few months maybe until summer um y the $30 Mark and uh I’ve written that down that number down as well seems like a magnet it it keeps pulling silver either back down to it or pulls it up to it like $30 seems to be that magical number can you explain explain it to us why that is like why is it technically like the chart like why why is it so

significant it seems like silver always wants to come back to it well I mean round numbers first of all have a certain psychological Factor on on investors and um as I said I mean it’s been the trading range for the last four years remember silver tried a few times to break above $30 it always failed remember the the the the the silver squeeze movement managed to bring silver up to $30 20 I think in the February of 2021 if I’m correct and um and it took another three and a half four years near for for Sila to to break above that

resistance now it managed to break out of it it’s coming back down um but again I’m I’m not too worried here I think it’s just a question of time and and then we know that silver within a very short period of time can can really like crazy Floren I feel like I’m bombarding you with very like basic questions but I I really wanted I quickly want to address the gold silver ratio um because we didn’t include it in our previous questions or so but like how significant is it to you like we’re sitting at 89

right now silver as you as you mentioned we don’t have to go into detail here is is lagging behind gold of course but uh how significant is that to you like when do you get nervous or when do you get excited like what should we be looking for like when the the Gap closes or like when it trades down to 70 again like what what should we looking for well I mean the gold silver ratio is an important tool to to analyze the precious metal sector in itself if gold is so strong in comparison to silver or

silver is just following gold like it is doing now for the last two years basically um it’s not so important I would say but then again you look at it it gives you some insights or hints like what’s the next direction of the whole sector probably right now I don’t see any any important signal here uh I mean from a fundamental perspective we know that there’s 10 ounces of silver in the ground for each ounce of gold so a ratio at 90 is completely completely far away and disconnected from from the reality

in the Earth but um that’s what the market is playing right now and I think it just shows us that silver is still very much undervalued here and has a lot of potential to catch up to Gold um I don’t see any important signals right now but I I think once silver the gold silver ratio would fall below let’s say 75 that probably would be the trigger for silver to really kick in and do its own thing and and rally hard so we’re a bit far away from that right now but that would be the the final confirmation

I would say that silver is doing its own thing Floren before we move away bit from from the price discussion here I just quickly want to bring up what what you put out on Twitter on a daily basis here almost is the gold daily call and uh I I brought up the chart that you posted this morning cuz uh at first s it’s a bit complicated to understand but then like after the 30 first 30 seconds of course I I I get it but maybe you can explain a little bit what what are you doing here and what’s the message you’re

trying to convey well it’s just a tool for people to to keep up with the the daily gold price movements I mean I have so many people always questioning me what’s going to happen with the gold price what’s the next move where are we going and that’s a daily call so it’s obviously a short-term time frame kind of thing um but uh it it helps you to keep the perspective and as you can see I mean we have a triangle movement over the last uh two and a half months nearly three months um since gold topped out at

seven $2,790 and um The Daily call basically gives you the support and resistance levels it gives you a price action what to do or ideally what not to do uh so that’s actually even better um because most of the time it’s avoiding mistakes that will help you to become more successful so um uh it gives you a bias above that level it you would look for bullish scenarios below that level you would look for bearish scenarios and um it keeps you uh up to date with the gold price uh you see the most important levels um you see that as

I just said before uh we had this little bull trap on Friday gold tried to break out above this uh upper boundary of that that triangle and it failed and here we are on Tuesday trading nearly $30 lower than than Friday’s high and so it tells us we’re still in that triangle it also tells you that the downside is most likely very limited uh yes we could test 2,620 which would be the the green the lower boundary of the triangle um absolute worst case remember before any big rally usually that tends to be a b a bear trap

so that means get a breakout below and then quickly price is reversing and everybody who in panic sold because there was some support violated basically finds itself uh standing at the station and the train is leaving right so um actually that’s happened yesterday in the Bitcoin chart by the way so you had this this uh dip below 990,000 and here we are not even 24 hours later and and Bitcoin is trading at 96,000 nearly $7,000 higher and that happens very quickly you can be sure like people panicking throwing in their

positions and then the market turns around Fin and and that’s somehow a pattern that I see over and over again especially in that environment that we are in now which I think is still the cracker boom right but um for the gold price we have this lower boundary let’s say 2,620 maybe we see it again that would be still healthy um maybe even a little bear trap 2,600 but I don’t see much more downside here and I I think it’s just a question of a few more weeks before gold will break out of that triangle and then we rally higher and

the daily call helps you to keep up on a daily basis basically and it’s free follow me on Twitter for that I think it’s a good tool to just keep up with with what’s going on in in the gold market absolutely yeah no I look at it quite often as well so I really appreciate you putting that out um Floren like we we focused a lot on the micro meaning gold and silver price here the last 20 minutes almost let’s zoom out let’s talk macro um I’m really trying understand like maybe what are some of the impulses that you’re looking

at for for 2025 like maybe just as a hint for the conversation here we’re getting US inflation data tomorrow um as as we record this on Tuesday the 14th but what what are some of the impulses you’re looking forward to in 2025 that could potentially influence precious metal prices here well generally speaking for all the markets my expectation is that we get much more volatility than last year so I assume it will be much more difficult for the Buy and Hold kind of investor uh I assume we’re going to see Violent

moves in nearly all markets um that’s my general assumption um It’s tricky because I believe that markets are very much correlated these days uh I believe that liquidity and money flow are most important and I believe that for example if the stock market would get into trouble uh I I think that that the precious metals uh gold and silver would not be able to do their own thing I think they would be also very much affected by it but then again the big question is will the the stock market really ever get into real trouble I mean

we haven’t seen a real bare Market since the 1970s we’ve seen one massive nasty uh financial crisis in 2008 but this also lasted not even a year it was less than a year um so because of course once there is problems the authorities immediately step in print more money uh uh and and help somehow to to to turn around the situation and that’s what has to be expected for the future as well and then uh if you look at the sentiment which is also a very important part of of of what’s going to happen in the

markets I was surprised to see so much uh Panic already over the last few days and weeks because the stock markets have basically taken a breather because Bitcoin for example has taken a breather because gold came back down to 2,600 so these little pullbacks seem to be enough already to freak out everybody it looks like everybody’s uh invested with a 100x leverage I mean I I I don’t really get it but it’s it’s it’s great for a contrarian if you have the ways to measure these kind of sentiment setups

um and then do the opposite obviously so uh I’m I’m I’m still optimistic that we’re going to see higher stock market Market overall uh I think that gold will definitely run to $3,000 that’s my target I think that Bitcoin most likely will see $30,000 during the course of the year but as I said already uh I believe also that it’s going to be a hell of a ride it’s going to be a roller coaster it’s going to be very volatile with moves that many people haven’t seen in their lives I assume so um and and

that is because we have a very crazy mix of a new president uh with a most likely strong team of entrepreneurs that will push free markets Free Speech but at the same time want to cut bureaucracy in the Deep state which might actually create quite a lot of turmoil and also could uh for a period of time create problems in the markets we know that geopolitics are are not solved we we most likely see actually even more intense uh situations um and uh we we see at the same time AI marching higher and um

basically attacking all parts of our world now our life so it’s a very complicated complex mix overall you can be sure that if there is problems they will print more money so that’s why I said quab boom I think that’s that’s the main topic overall but it’s going to be volatile now cracka boom is an interesting one like the question is like how long does it last and uh like where do how do you how do you identify the end of a crack up boom of course you you see a 5% price correction on it uh maybe in the chart of the S&P 500 on one

day but uh like what what are some of the indicators you’re looking for Florian is more the questions like what what are you looking at on a daily basis that could signal okay this might be the top yeah it’s hard to say but uh I mean you just imagine how much money there’s still waiting on the sidelines just imagine how many people in all these countries desperately trying to find a way to invest their money like imagine you’re are from bulg ARA turkey Italy South Africa pick whatever country they

all if you have if you’re if you’re a rich guy in those countries what are you doing you cannot invest in your local currency you cannot invest in your local stock market you go to the W because the America America has the deepest Capital markets and that still attracts more Capital into America and I don’t think that this trend has changed or is stopped um a 5% pullback is nothing but as you see I mean a 5% pull pullback and everybody’s freaked out already um even a 20% pullback doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ve seen a

long-term top and a reversal uh it probably would take much more and then of course once you realize it it’s too late already but um uh I mean one thing that I need to mention which worries me definitely is uh I mean I have deep respect for Jim Rogers for example who who recently announced that he has sold all of his US Stocks I also have lots of respect for Warren Buffett who’s also been trimming down a lot of his exposure in the US Stock Market so if those two legends basically see something that most of us maybe are

still not seeing or understanding it’s definitely something to be aware of at least um from a technical basis of course you look at at at lower highs and lower lows I mean that’s the definition of a downtrend uh I don’t really see it at the moment I am looking at the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 and the nastic and yes it’s not been very convincing what they’ve been doing over the last few weeks um but I think I mean we are in front of a um the the inauguration of Mr Trump and then we have to see how things will play

out in the first few weeks and and what he’s going to do and let’s see I mean it’s too early I think to call a top here in the in the stock market but we have to be of course always aware that things can change my main scenario is Cracker boom just continues and remember I mean cracker boom and in in in the German hyperinflation lasted for many years and um and it took crazy inflation numbers until until this whole thing basically ended so we’re far away from that there’s still the vast majority of people is still trapped in

their little day-to-day job having to pay into the system and there’s no way out for them if they have a mortgage or whatever so uh I think this whole thing can run much longer than many people uh imagine yeah that’s one of my biggest fears I think I’ve discussed that before with you uh when we had a dinner about a year ago or so in Zurich it was my biggest fears like we’re all predicting doom and glooming crashes here but like what what happens if and we don’t need to go down that rabbit hole it’s just

something is like a top of mind like what happens if the US goes down the way of Japan they seem to be living happily ever after yes they’re not the world currency anymore and uh they they never were but the Yen was pretty strong in the 80s and remember like Japan was a really strong uh economic superpower there now they’re just I use that analogy in another conversation the cousin that everybody has to invite to the parties just because they’re family right so um I keep looking at that like we keep kicking the can down the road

and there’s a potential to do that because uh I don’t know dead to GDP if that’s an indicator 250 points in in in Japan 130 in the US there’s there’s a way to go if you want it right so I don’t know that’s maybe my biggest fear just kicking the can down the road and uh all our predictions here what’s happening for decades already right and and the the challenge for for US Gold pucks so to speak is because we looking at things a little bit different and for us the glass is most likely not half full but half empty right so um which is

okay I mean you have to have that perspective as well and I wouldn’t be a goldb myself if I would not believe in it and I would not questioning actually the sustainability of the whole system but at the same time only because our little minority of goldb is focusing on it it doesn’t have to happen tomorrow right and you have to understand that we also always focusing on that Black Swan event which is apparently not happening right now uh could be that we’re now as we’re talking about next week it’s

happening right but um H people have been saying uh uh or or basically expressing their worries about deficits money Printing and all these kind of things since the 60s I mean if you go back and read old uh stock market newsletters and and and also gold market newsletters you will see that 30 40 50 years ago people have been talking more or less about the same issues money printing deficits spending Etc and still here we are and it just continues and the Young Generation doesn’t care at all about it I mean

they’ve been just pushing fcoin to the roof uh this coin went up 7,000 per in two months they don’t care I mean we have to accept that this is the reality whether you like it or not it’s always uh challenging I understand this but I believe just focus on the opportunities don’t assume that the world is breaking down tomorrow uh there is still enough optimists around to make sure that this whole thing will continue so um that’s why I’m also not recommending to put everything and all your thoughts and all

your money into this precious metal sector but a healthy 10 20 25% of your net worth into physical gold and silver makes a lot of sense and it’s fully recommended by me and then on top if you want to speculate in the mining stocks and you understand what you’re doing go for it great you can make unbelievable returns in that sector but what I see in in my uh uh life and when I talk with investors and clients most of them are fully allocated to that one sector and most of the time 100% you know and and

assuming the end of the world and that’s not a good investment strategy no good good point uh you know you you got to diversify and why not trade the S&P 500 if it’s going up like that like let let me pull up a quick chart here like because it’s actually ridiculous like that chart and uh it’s this here that’s the S&P 500 over the last I don’t know 50 years okay the the yearly performance for the S&P 500 just just look at the last that’s really narrow oh wait I got to do this over here uh narrow it down since

2008 right all right like if you look at it like I thought it might zoom in more but um we’ve only had like three four down years like one like minus 73 like okay who cares um that’s flat and and just this year so far the year to date so if you take this year out we’ve only had three down years since the financial crisis yes one one was a little bigger right but the rest like people are uh in German in German we say Faun I’m not sure what the English word is like people are just used to high returns

right and then maybe that we can throw that into the discussion for the mining stocks like there’s no need to go into higher risk sectors when you can generate I don’t know let’s say 20% on average every year true yeah it it is crazy right um let’s talk about the miny stocks you opened that can of worms here um floran like what what is sentiment like right now in the junior mining space or in the mining space in general and uh what are your thoughts yeah I mean this sector is still kind of dominant overall I would

say uh I mean we’ve seen some activity uh September October U I think you mentioned it before with with the financings but overall obviously most of the investors are disappointed by the performance of their mining stocks some selected mining stocks did really well but you had to be a really good stock picker to to be invested in those on average we see that most of the the Juniors and the Explorers developers are all lagging they’re all still doing nothing or just had a little rally came back down hard every time so they are

not really catching up with the gold price we see that there is a big Divergence and I’m pretty sure that at some point this Gap will be closed right but of course uh I don’t know exactly when it will be um but remember from the past I mean these rallies similar to what I said before with silver these rallies in the mining stocks can be very very hard and violent and it can be a catchup really within a few months um we’ve seen that in the past and and something similar most likely will happen and and what it would take is

yeah I I guess more momentum in terms of AMA activities somehow more confidence in the sector a few big players starting to move that probably is what’s missing I assume but again also we have to understand that the Western investors in general are not interested in Precious Metals at at the moment they’re still chasing the S&P 500 higher they chasing the Bitcoin ETFs and um that’s that’s that’s the fact the gold price is higher because of the physical demand from Asia and um the Asians don’t buy American

Gold Mining stocks so um if you look at Chinese gold mining stocks there’s not a lot but all of them have done really well um so I think there is a lot of opportunity in the mining sector but uh again you have to bring in uh a lot of sitting power a lot of let’s say patience uh because yeah I don’t know when it will finally catch up uh but when it will it will be violent another German word popped into my head right now sits fles like the meat you sit on like like pretty much your bum but uh sits flly you need a

thick skin like you need a yeah I I don’t know German words like I’ve started pay more attention to unique German words lately and Z flash is definitely one of them um Flor I’ve got a couple more questions that I either forgot to ask or couldn’t really fit in but seasonality for the gold price and silver price here uh January is typically stronger uh for gold and silver February March not so much um what are you seeing like is that something you you would underwrite say okay yes it makes sense pay attention to

that um and do you see that pattern repeat this year so I differentiate between the data of the last 56 years of seasonality for gold and the data of the last let’s say 12 to 15 years because I believe that there has been a change in in in the seasonal pattern and it has played out again this pattern that we’ve seen over the last 12 to 15 years when gold usually finds an important low or a turning point mid of December around the last fomc meeting of the year that has happened quite a lot of times over the

last 12 15 years and out of those turning points usually gold Ries into spring even sometimes early summer meaning let’s say late late spring let’s say mid of May is the best case that we’ve seen so far so that’s the assumption that we are now in front of a pretty good period for Gold Silver and the mining stocks seasonality is positive until at least March but sometimes even until miday and and during that time if you get this breakout out of the triangle that is described before I think that will kick

in new momentum and we have a new uptrend uh another Bull Run and then let’s come let’s see that silver comes to the party at some point maybe February March um yeah you can suddenly be in a totally different environment than right now so I’m pretty much optimistic over the next let’s say three four four and a half months but understand that usually as I also explained before the market loves to basically lead everybody in the wrong direction and then turn around violently so I wouldn’t be surprised if

there is one last kind of like bear trap necessary meaning maybe gold needs to dip one more time towards 2,600 everybody’s freaking out throwing in the towel and then it turns around violently and within a few weeks we’re taking out the alltime eye you know so that’s that’s what we often have seen in the past well I already can read the comments down below the videos like ah gold never goes up you know I’ve been hearing this for 30 years this is like my favorite comments you know I mean it’s amazing if you bought the

physical metal I mean it’s been a great investment the last few years uh let’s go back to 20122 you’ve showed it on your S&P 500 chart I mean everything came down gold made a triple low at 1615 and here we are we are $ thousand dollar higher since the last over the last two and a half years so that’s amazing amazing Bull Run and physical bullion is the easiest investment that you can ever do I mean it’s in your own hands uh if you feel bad about it you take it in your hands the color the light everything is

amazing the weight right I mean it’s you you don’t want to sell that anyway just because of a little dip or a little pullback so yeah forget cold blung just buy a gold coin you know you you’ll feel better um Florian very very last question we haven’t really talked about like we need to talk about the US dollar real quick um because like correlation higher fed funds rate plus higher US dollar is usually not good for gold but uh this time around seems to be different CU gold is hanging in there we’ve discussed this at length now but

uh why why is it not weighing on gold is it really just a physical demand out of Asia that’s keeping it stronger so thank you for bringing up that point because I didn’t mention it I think it’s extremely important to also understand that the dollar has been so strong yet gold is here holding up very well right it’s been very resilient it’s been very strong and um um you would have expected with such a strong dollar that gold is lower but it it’s not so that already tells us there is intrinsic strength in the gold market and um we

know that the this the dollar rally is already kind of like long in the tooth um so I don’t think there is too much upside anymore for the dollar uh if you need a fundamental reason maybe Trump will start immediately to talk the dollar down because he needs a weaker dollar could be a reason who knows um but uh if the dollar starts to correct I mean that would give gold quite a boost so um the the the euro dollar is currently uh at 10250 maybe we see a dip below parity yeah okay that could be still happening

in the short term but I don’t think there is much more upside for the dollar in the short term and once this turns around and just a recovery just a recovery in the Yuri Euro and and and a little pullback in the dollar would probably be enough already to send gold back to the alltime high so um that’s a another big reason actually why why you should be bullish on gold yeah no fantastic Floren really enjoyed this conversation it was really insightful we covered a lot of ground here um where where can people follow you how how can

we reach out to you well my website is mouch minus consulting.com we have a free telegram channel that you can also find the link for at on the website then uh I published these daily calls on Twitter uh on LinkedIn and also on substack that’s actually the best way to subscribe to everything that I publish and um we also have a free classic email newsletter um where you also get most of the important updates and again I recommend our telegram Channel where you will meet a lot of like-minded investors

from all over the world we’re talking about gold silver mining stocks and Bitcoin and digital assets and everything that’s happening in financial markets it’s all free we would love to see see you guys joining us there there fantastic Florian thank you so much for your time it was great to see you happy New Year again and all the best in 2025 I hope to catch you soon perhaps at pedak probably be this the soonest we might run into each other I guess thanks for having me Kai was my pleasure yes would love to see you again as well and

all the best for you and the viewers much luck and success in 2025 fantastic Floren thank you so much and everybody else really appreciate you tuning in I hope you enjoyed this conversation here with Florian Gomez if if you did leave a like leave a comment cuz I know 80% of you are also not subscribed for the channel it’s a free way to support us and we tremendously appreciate it where do you think gold is going like what is Donald Trump going to do in in about six days time here uh do do you like his

personal uh person Personnel decisions as well like let’s put that all down in down in the comments I I read all of them I probably shouldn’t but I do and do appreciate the feedback some of them I try I try to use in you know upcoming interviews and really throw those questions in I love the food for thought so thanks so much for that and uh good luck out there health and well to everybody in 2025 we’ll be back with lots more thank you so much