Trump Announces He ‘Will Go Forward’ With Tariffs On Canada & Mexico (Uncut) 02-25-2025

RBC is saying the same Doom that we feel right giving you the news that’s happened Michael Oliver is saying that the technicals indicate that this time we may be in an upswing of momentum higher lows welcome to the morning markets and medals with Vince Lancy where each morning Vince brings you the financial and precious metals news to get you ready for your day and now here’s Vince good morning everyone I’m Vince Lany this is the market rundown we will be discussing primarily miners The Good the Bad and the Ugly we’re not so

ugly I should say today’s action notwithstanding the mara logo cord will change money forever that’s the title tentatively because I think it’s worth discussing a little bit of geopolitics today we also have the RBC full report on which we will base the minor discussion attached that bottom for premium subscribers all right that’s a lot so let’s get started the markets I’m going to put this up right now 10e yields are down seven at 432 the dollar is 10647 down 22 the SMP 500 is 598 down three vix is 1927 up a little

gold is 2929 down 22 near its lows silver is 3184 down 48 near its lows copper 451 up a pen no idea why WTI 748 down 77 consistent natural gas dead cap boun 412 up a penny and a half Bitcoin down 2500 88,9 Palladium and platinum big spread now Palladium is now 936 Platinum is 965 think Russia maybe it’s related to that maybe it’s related to the economic stuff but it’s related uh soy corn and wheat 1029 down three 477 down 4 and the king of the selloff is wheat 585 down 7 okay so I see several drivers in there

potentially the first one is uh if there’s peace with Russia uh you’re going to see uh Commodities that are geopolitically driven move on that so Palladium uh would be one oil would be another and wheat would be another that’s one dri of these price moves the other is the tariffs that Trump has announced going into effect uh or the ones that were tabled and are now going into effect or threatening to be going into effect again are probably wreaking a little bit of Havoc with commodities why would gold

be down if there’s tariffs well gold was down last time if there were tariffs announced but that’s that we don’t know what’s going to happen there silver however um I would say silver should be down except Copper’s not down so go figure we’ll find out what’s going on in a little bit uh hopefully but just now you have the information all right why do I have this post here well this post is from March of 2022 and in it posar said something uh the report ended with just a statement after this war is

over money will never be the same and we said he is right now back in the day uh when posar was saying a lot of things of in my opinion originality and substance uh he was privy he still is privy but he was talking to people that understood uh the geopolitical uh situation very well and uh uh he I remember when he said this he was kind of identifying the next Plaza Accord uh event the next uh Breton Woods right this is where the whole Breton Woods 3 came out okay uh this is where the the birth of the Breton Woods 3

concept now it’s such a bold statement and yes it caught a lot of attention but it remained it remains relevant to this day why because he’s right whoever told him is right okay the war is the beginning of the end of the new Monet of the current monetary regime now there’s a lot of talk about that right now uh amongst more uh intellectual types um I forget I forget but TS Lombard has a piece on it right everyone talking everyone had talked about embridge uh we’re talking about a moral logo agreement there’s a piece out there

about that but I guess what I’m coming down to is we’re near the end of that time frame and the meeting where is that where is that anyway the meeting is between the three largest oil powers in the world okay in Riad with the Ukraine president absent we’re going to have kind of a maralago Riad accord or agreement we’ll see anyway I will get into that a little bit more in a second I don’t want to go down too much of rabbit hole let’s go with the front page haret Krabby pic River could be sent just sell the gold

yes he could would he probably not uh Bloomberg the West doesn’t get on precious medals we have a lot of stories yesterday uh but we did not send them out in the email all right let’s start with the miners right let’s go to the main event here all right the good is by Michael Oliver the bad is by RBC so let’s start with the the bad right you get your dessert after you deal with this RBC put out a report five things on medals we have it at the bottom uh and they here’s the Five Points that they go

into in detail number one GDX the GDX J flows are deterior are they deteriorating further and the question is we don’t know but they have deteriorated enough and that’s what this this graph means the deteriorating flows implies less people investing in it than ever a good contrarian indicator but I’m not uh framing it that way for this part of the conversation Capital returns are an investor Focus but corporate actions are mixed this is very disturbing and has been my problem with miners for over a decade and that is

they do not respond or cannot respond or are unwilling to explain why they will not respond to what investors want Capital returns meaning buy your shares back issue a dividend or grow your business through accretion and they’re not or acquisition they’re not doing that so RBC goes into that number three senior producer guidance fell short of consensus expectations that’s just a statement of fact uh what they’ve noticed is that so senior go producers issued 2025 guidance over the past two weeks indicating lower production higher

cost and higher capex versus both consensus expectations and 2024 achieved results that’s uh uh part for the course for me uh what is working year to date they get into leverage to gold and avoiding operational slip UPS now what would that mean leverage to Gold means well operational leverage or financial leverage it’s it’s operational level is what you prefer but un financial leverage is what they have and financial leverage is not working right now looking at performance year-to date producers have outperformed royalty

companies ah that makes sense royalty companies are theoretically tapped in their in their their cash stream companies right so in our view that’s consistent with both riseing gold prices and a substantial valuation gap for producers producers are too cheap relative to royalties royalties are capped in their income and their profits compared to to uh uh companies that are leveraged to the price of gold and therefore if you have money in royalties you’re going to rotate it into uh producers at this part of the cycle

which is the point of this chart here indirectly this chart shows there’s less money going into precious metals stocks which means everyone selling royalty companies and buying uh miners I mean uh producers so whoops didn’t mean to do that that’s kind of upsetting you know uh because that means for every producer going up a streamer might start going down now yeah you’ll see the Gap close but it won’t be from producers just going up it will also be from miners going lower so that’s the what’s the

fifth one oh the fifth one’s actually the Hope right midcaps could have a brighter future if gold price strength continues well you know how long have you been hearing that right I don’t want to blow smoke up your ass in rise and gold price environment intermediate and growth focused producers can outperform seniors G given leverage and liquidity profiles however two additional factors deserve attention one small and midcap valuations have dislocated vers large caps back in 2019 and have not recovered

even as Financial conditions and the operating cost environment has improved why is that I don’t have an answer uh investor feedback supports a low inclination to shift all right that’s the bad right so the good oh there it is the good is last night Michael Oliver sent uh another report incidentally to reiterate he will be joining the gold fix Founders this Sunday for a Q&A and interview uh after which we will make it available for premium subscribers there that’s better right uh in his late this note sent last night he

looks at the intermediate level for signs of momentum proliferation and he does see them specifically he sees a repeat of a momentum situation that corroborates this is a sideway situation that should resolve higher now putting a little bit more uh explanation on that there was a pattern in the intermediate situation in the past I’m par I’m kind of explaining what he’s talking about here I don’t want to give away too much of what he wrote there’s kind of a pattern and the pattern is when the market when his

indicator the market gets overbought the market drops down right and then when the market gets overbought and market and oversold it rall that’s your momentum indicator but the longer since the longer term momentum indicator has turned upward and we had a nice rally in mining stocks the intermediate indicator is being ignored so we have had we are in an intermediate topping indicator with the long indicator being extremely well uh uh uh sitting and the market instead of crapping out is going sideways so everyone who’s impatient I

understand but the impatience is not warranted from what I take away from this the longer term the zoom out and I don’t mean that negatively the zoom out says all all everything’s go we’re in an intermediate uh low now he has charts that effect I’m going to show you in the technical part what he means using my tools what overbought should do in the intermediate and isn’t doing intermediate is I think uh anywhere from uh two to six months okay so uh we’re going to go through that uh in in more detail so actually let me paraphrase let

me quote one thing that he did say after eight months of staircasing the same situation is in play any monthly close at 4295 will be a new high close for the entire Advance he put this out last night this is bleeding edge stuff also watch the upper normal high line of momentum get price up to 4310 this month on the close and that ceiling on momentum comes out so the longterm right uh $42.95 get is a level to re accelerate and 4310 uh will uh take away I think the intermediate uh ceiling so taking

together between rates uh I’m sorry between RBC and MSA the news the fundamental news always lags the price Action Now we will personally wait for a trigger namely specifically Michael’s trigger and then increase our own position our position being long GDX and short uh a tech an AI specified uh ETF and we’re naked long gold so that’s where we are and we’ll come back to that let’s move to uh the other news and Analysis now these are the stories we put out yesterday Michael Oliver where are the medals with stocks dropping that was the

morning rundown yesterday Founders am slow down in AI plus a story by Robo Sunday cftc discussions that’s over two hours with a conversation with a guest Ben kelleran who discussed offshore drilling particularly Sable is his Focus uh Goldman Sachs by the dip unlikely a story that we put out yesterday breaking Luke Roman’s interview with Tucker Carlson everyone’s talking about that today and certainly we were talking about it yesterday on social media very good interview um uh Luke represented his knowledge and our

community I think very well uh tuckson uh asked the right questions wanted to spin it uh not spin it wanted to frame it as what it is you know uh a conspiracy against gold as we one thing he said I thought was interesting he said being called a gold bug is a specie that was his word being called a gold bug is a gold bug is a species of of gaslighting or or conspiracy theory that’s the word he said so it’s kind of like if you’re a gold bug it’s like a subset of conspiracy theorist you know what I mean uh next story is Monday PM

ctas are two long gold and two short copper so there’s one two 3 four five six pieces we put out yesterday almost entirely on precious metals all right like we understand if you’re reading something else right now all right so moving on data on Deck GDP pce today is the K Shiller home price index uh new home sales is Wednesday GDP is Thursday and Friday is pce in premium again we have the top five things across gold equities we have that report thank you to Mr J W uh we’ll call him for now uh we appreciate that he’s a Founder

a goix founder and um well we’re going to do final Market check and in that final Market check I want to go through this uh uh how I frame Michael Oliver’s uh stuff okay this is a daily GDX chart can I draw with this yes I can interesting there you go kid with a new toy um what you’ll notice or what I’ll point out to you is that see this pink and red 8 and9 8 and9 8 and9 right these are yellow and green well what matters is that when we hit an 8 and9 that’s a top you hit an 8 and9 that’s a top 8 and

N Big Top okay the 8 and N is something called a tomed mark sequential indicator and they don’t predict but they determine when a market is overbought or oversold at least the way I show it here all right now the last one was a big one right now let’s go since December of this year actually really since November of last year all right here’s an 8-9 ignored it here’s an 8-9 sideways pause okay so Michael’s point if I’m understanding him correctly is that this is intermediate momentum for me intermediate momentum says

respect the eights and nines all right intermediate momentum has just basically said the eights and nines are no longer to be respected so the market has in my opinion looking at these and very familiar with sequential the sequential tell you when you’re going to have like a a regime change in perception right okay it’s a higher high and it’s a higher low but it’s still a high it’s still a high it’s a higher high and a higher low but guess what it’s not really a higher low I mean it’s not really a higher high that stops in a

Range it just reverses so 8 and N right this is an indication of a market that is no longer looking at this but it’s a market that is now looking at this okay so my guess is we get above here and it’s Off to the Races now what’s Michael’s number 43 uh 43 okay and that makes sense if you’re a traditional technician you look at this and you say ah bull flag right gets above here you’re Off to the Races if you want to be more aggressive which I am more aggressive uh if the market gets above here let’s say like you know this

line here I’m going to get longer right and if the market gets above there I’m going to probably get super long so that’s pretty much it um the whole concept here is is this time different and you know everyone thinks it’s different and it is different because it’s demonstrably different the long-term momentum that Michael talks about so much is in place the intermediate momentum I’m demonstrating to you is changing to be favorable to the market okay it’s lower today right okay but we’re not trading this for a

day this is a 3 to six month outlook on my system let’s see what it is for his to summarize RBC is saying the same Doom that we feel right giving you the news that’s happened Michael Oliver is saying that the technicals indicate that this time we may be in an upswing of momentum higher lows so to speak and I believe frankly that we’re going to have a uh an accord that’s going to come out of uh the Riad conversation just to give you a little bit more meat on the bone of that uh what I’m talking about

is is when there’s peace after a war just think about your your history right when there’s peace after a war oil drops and gold drops right peace if there’s peace after this war and gold doesn’t drop gold is rallied for eight weeks in a row if there’s peace after this war and gold doesn’t drop and oil does drop then the Accord is in play and the Accord would be your gold will go up uh if we can have cheaper oil and that’s the trade all things being aside all things being taken differently all right

I’m Vince have a great day well thanks for watching this morning’s markets and medals with Vince Lany we sure appreciate you tuning in and starting your day with us here hope you enjoyed the show and we’ll see you again tomorrow please note that this video is not intended as legal licensed Financial trading advice and is to be used for informational purposes only please contact your financial adviser before making any decisions and thanks for watching