Peter Schiff’s SOTU Response (Uncut) 03-05-2025

Peter Schiff’s SOTU Response

We can’t afford it either, and I think we didn’t have NATO, I don’t think this stuff would be going on. But I remember when the war first started, I predicted when everybody thought it was going to be over quick, I said, no, this is going to be another Vietnam, it’s going to be like a quagmire, it’s never going to end based on what we’re doing. And now that Trump is here, we finally have a chance, a real chance for peace, which is one of the reasons that I recommended voting for.

The Democrats, unfortunately, are the warmongers. And the Republicans don’t like people dying, needlessly, on both sides. The Ukrainians are dying, Russians are dying, and there is no reason for this.

I think that Russia will end up getting some extra territory, so what? All of this is politics. And most of the people, I think, living in the areas that might become part of Russia, they’re Russian anyway. They speak Russian, and they’re probably going to be happier as Russia, you know.

So this was all a fight over nothing. All right, thank you. Who’s up next? We got A.B. back.

Oh, A.B., unmute your mic. A.B.’s still got his mic muted, that’s the problem. You got to unmute your mic, if you can hear me.

If not, Paul, just move on to somebody else. That’s all we have right now. Oh, of all 403 people that are in this room, nobody wants to say anything.

Normally, we’ve got so many people that want to make a comment. Anybody? I don’t know why A.B. still hasn’t figured out how to unmute his mic. Anyway, you know, there were some rumors, too, that came in after the markets closed yesterday, just, you know, the tariffs went into effect, the 25% tariffs on Americans who want to buy goods coming in from Canada and Mexico.

And then Ludnick made some statements later in the day to suggest that maybe the trade war is over again, that Trump is going to make some concessions. But he seemed to be taking a hard line again on these tariffs in the State of the Union address. So it really doesn’t seem that they’re ready to roll them back.

But we’ll see. I mean, the stock market was not acting good today. In fact, not only could we easily be in a recession during the first half of Trump’s first year, but we could be in a bear market in stocks.

You know, the Russell 2000 at the low this morning was already down 17 percent from its peak. So it’s close to a bear market. But, you know, the Nasdaq was down about 10 percent, maybe halfway there.

But we could easily be in a bear market in stocks. Stocks have been very expensive for a long time. And so they have a long way to drop.

So we have a bear market in stocks. We have a recession and inflation is going up, not down. Inflation is going to go up.

That’s the other problem. And the Democrats are already getting stuck on this. Trump promised that prices were going to go down from the first day that he was in office.

And I said at the time he was making a promise that he can’t keep and it was going to come back to bite him. Prices are going to keep going up. They’re not going down under Trump.

They’re going to go up and the Democrats are going to be able to blame him. And one of the reasons they can blame him is because he promised that it would go down. And he can’t deliver on that.

So he shouldn’t have made the promise. The only way we’re going to get less inflation is if we can really shrink the money supply and slash government spending. They’re talking about it, but they’re not doing it.

Look at what happened in Congress. Look at the monstrosity that the Republicans passed. You know, Trump said he wanted a big, beautiful bill.

Well, it’s big, all right, but it ain’t beautiful. It’s another ugly bill that he should veto because it’s going to make the deficits he inherited from Biden bigger, not smaller. All right.

Do we got a speaker, Paul? Yeah, Tommy. OK, Tommy, you got to unmute. No, it’s like and speed them to it.

Go to inch first. Who? Go to who? And Austin or Tommy, whichever one you guys on mute first. OK, we got three people who want to speak, but OK, I’m ready to go.

All right, go. Can you guys hear me? Yeah. Is that Austin? Yeah.

Peter, been a fan for a really long time. Pleasure to speak with you. I just I’m wondering, I mean, right.

We got gold at record highs. Silver seems to be lagging behind. The miners are lagging behind.

I mean, what is it going to take for silver to take off? What is it going to take for the miners to take off? What are investors not understanding here with gold at record highs? Yeah. You know, I don’t know exactly. I mean, I can speculate because I would have thought that they would have already taken off.

But, you know, I think the the optimism around Trump’s election, I think, really set back the miners quite a bit. And probably silver, because that’s retail investors. The central banks know the truth.

The bankers are buying gold. But, you know, investors still don’t understand what’s going on. And so they’re ignoring the rise in gold and they’re not attributing the increase in the price of gold to raise their earnings estimates or valuations for the companies that mine it because they don’t expect the prices to stay here.

They just think the prices are going to go down. And the public, I think, has been sidetracked, the investing public that might otherwise buy gold stocks or silver. They’ve been buying tech stocks.

They’ve been buying cryptocurrencies, you know, and, you know, that’s what’s been making money. So they’re, you know, they’re just doing what’s worked and they’re ignoring what hasn’t worked. But they’re making a big mistake as an investor.

They’re overlooking what’s cheap and they’re buying what’s expensive. And a lot of people are going to get burned. A lot of people are going to be left holding the bag and people are going to be missing out on this opportunity.

I think that when these stocks start to move, when the mining stocks in particular and also silver, when they start to move, it’s going to be a very rapid move. And I think the people who, you know, are not in the market are going to have a hard time getting in because it’s going to be scary to buy. I mean, imagine, you know, silver is up $10 one day.

I mean, are you going to want to buy it? It’s going to be difficult. But then it’s up again and then it’s up again. Now, at some point when it’s up enough, you know, yeah, people might want to buy silver at $100, you know, 150, you know, they might, you know, but, you know, the initial spikes are going to be scary.

People aren’t going to want to buy. But obviously, you know, people are buying or it wouldn’t go up. But, you know, and you’re not going to get to sell it.

Like, I know, like, I’m not interested in selling silver. I’m certainly not interested in selling my gold stocks. My gold stocks, double or triple, I ain’t selling any of them.

They’re still cheap. And they could do that, you know, in a very short period of time. That’s why I keep telling people, you know, get into these stocks now.

I mean, don’t worry about when they’re going to go up. They’re going to go up. I mean, obviously, I mean, I can’t guarantee that.

But I’m 100% convinced that that’s going to happen. So, you know, I mean, I got my gold fund. EPGIX is the symbol, the Europe Pacific Gold Fund.

I think Adrian Day has built a phenomenal portfolio. I think that’s what you want to buy to get a good diversified portfolio of these mining stocks. Or, you know, go to my website at Europact.com to get information on the fund, get a prospectus.

You can even buy the fund directly from Europact.com. You don’t have a, you know, a Schwab account or a Fidelity account or any of these discount brokerage accounts. But if you have one, you just buy the fund right there. Make sure you buy the no-load one, which is the symbol I gave, EPGIX.

Well, Peter, I just want to say I’m one of your younger fans. I’m 25 years old. I think there are a lot of us out there.

And I just think, you know, we’ve had gold at record highs. And we, you know, I own a lot of gold stocks myself. And I think, you know, maybe not today, but yesterday, I think we had one of those days where, you know, gold is down maybe a little bit or even up.

And we see these dramatic pullbacks in gold stocks. And I guess a lot of us are just left wondering what piece of the equation are we missing here, where it’s just, is it the cost side of the equation or just investors out there think gold is going to go lower? Just what is keeping these stocks down as gold is just gripping higher? Yeah, gold just went down because the stock market went down and gold stocks are stocks and they just got sold. Yeah, there was a disconnect.

Now, yes, the cost of mining gold has gone up a lot over the last 10, 20 years. That’s been a big problem for these gold stocks. The reason the cost of mining has gone up so much is because there’s been a lot of inflation.

Now, you would think, well, gee, that should be good for gold. But the price of gold didn’t really go up as much as it should have because people didn’t realize how bad the inflation is or how permanent it is. There are still people that think that inflation is coming down.

It’s not. Inflation is going way up. But that expectation has not been priced into gold.

But I think gold is going to catch up to where it should be. So when gold goes from $3,000 to $10,000 or $20,000, the cost of mining gold is not going to go up anywhere near that percentage. So I think gold is going to catch up to where it should be.

And these mining stocks are going to literally make fortunes in earnings. And it’s not going to matter whether investors want to buy the stocks. They’re going to earn so much money, they’re going to buy back their own stock.

They’ll be able to supply all the buying because they’re going to have so much income. They’re not going to know what to do with it. Yeah, they can increase their dividends.

One of the things they probably won’t do with it is use it to explore for more gold because it’ll be more economical to buy back their own stock than to open up a new gold mine. And that’s going to be part of the problem because, see, normally when you get a big increase in the price of a commodity, you also get an increase in the supply because the producers are incentivized to devote more resources to creating supply to cash in on that high price. And eventually the price comes down.

But in the gold miners, they’re not going to be incentivized to produce more gold. They’ll just use their cash to buy back their own stock. Now, eventually when those stock prices move up high enough, then yes, then they’ll spend it looking for more gold.

But in the short run, it’ll be cheaper to buy the stock in the stock market than look for gold in the earth. I’ll leave it there. But I just want to say, huge fan, just so you know, there are a lot of young people out there that believe in free market principles and listen to your podcast and are big fans out there.

And I’m one of them. So I really appreciate you answering the question today and I’ll leave it there. Thank you so much, Peter.

Great. Appreciate that. Yeah, I guess a lot of people stay up late.

I’ve done these podcasts, these spaces before. I had a couple thousand people on. But there’s only like 426.

Although maybe more people are listening on YouTube because I’m doing YouTube as well. So that can be part of it. We are out there.

Thank you. Yeah, thank you. Thank you.

Anybody else who’s got a question? Tommy? Yes, sir. Hey, Peter. Hi, Tommy.

What would you like to see in the future? You’re welcome. What do you feel like this whole cataclysm is taking off? Is it going to be like Benjamin Netanyahu, Agent Middle East, and all this stuff? Or like, what are you kind of thinking about for like in that regard? For a catalyst for what? I had a hard time hearing you. Catalyst for gold, silver.

Kind of, I guess, like spiking. Not necessarily just rising, I guess, but like kind of like going to the next level. I don’t necessarily think that the real catalyst is going to be a geopolitical event.

I think it’s more of a, you know, emperor has no clothes kind of aha moment. Because what I think is going to happen is we’re going to get more weak economic data. We’ve gotten a lot of weak data that’s come out.

We’ll see what happens with the jobs report on Friday. Maybe we’re finally going to get a very weak jobs report. But I think we’re going to get a lot of evidence that the economy is weak, that the labor market is weak, and the Fed is going to be cutting rates.

But the bond market is not going to respond the way it did in prior years. I think we’re going to get higher longer-term interest rates. I know that the Trump administration really wants yields on the 10-year Treasury to come down, but they’re going to go up as the Fed cuts.

And inflation is going to go up. It has already been rising the last, you know, four or five months in a row. So we’re headed back up towards 9% and higher.

And so at some point, there’s going to be a wake-up moment where the traders in the gold market and the foreign exchange market realize that inflation is not going back to 2%. And real interest rates are going to be negative as far as the eye can see. And inflation is going to keep going worse.

And then there’s going to be a stampede out of the dollar. And the destination of choice is going to be gold. But people will still, you know, sell dollars for euros or yen or pounds or whatever.

But the smart money is going to be selling all those fiat currencies for gold. But you’re going to just see it’s just going to go up. And, you know, the initial move, I mean, nobody even knows.

When you listen to all these so-called experts, you know, if they even mention gold, which they rarely mention it, but when they mention it, they still don’t understand why it’s going up. They say, well, you know, gold’s not going up because of inflation. Because they assume there is none.

It must be going up because of it’s non-correlated or because of this geopolitics. No, it’s inflation. They just don’t realize that there’s an inflation problem.

That’s why they don’t realize that that’s why gold’s going up. And the reason that central banks are buying it is because they don’t want to buy the dollar because they know the dollar’s being inflated. And so they’re foregoing a 4% or 5% yield on treasuries to own gold because they think that’s better because that yield is phony because the yield is still less than the real inflation rate.

So even though we’re paying you to hold dollars, we’re not paying you enough to compensate for the purchasing power the dollars are losing as you’re holding them. So to avoid that loss, the banks are buying gold and soon everybody will be buying gold for the same reason. But for now, I think the smart thing to do is buy the mining stocks because you’re buying gold in the ground.

And I think that’s the cheapest way to buy it right now. I mean, they’re giving it away. If you buy mining stocks, you’re getting all that gold for nothing.

Thank you for the analysis. All right. Thank you, Tommy, for listening.

Paul, we got anybody else that has a question? Muckraker. Hey, how’s it going, guys? Peter, here’s my question for you. There’s talk about auditing Fort Knox and I’m curious from all of your research over the years, do you think that our reserves are still there or maybe they’re less than anticipated, less than what they were 50 years ago or do you think they’re gone? And I would also apply that question to our gold reserves as a nation in totality if you think that if there was an audit done, if we would notice that it’s not all there anymore.

Well, I haven’t done any research. I wouldn’t even be privy to the information that would make the research possible. I mean, I don’t know how I would know whether the gold is there or not.

I know that there hasn’t been an official audit since the 1950s. So, you know, do I trust the government? No. I mean, I know the government lies about all sorts of things.

And so could they be lying about still having that gold? Because there are no audits. We used to have audits because we used to have to prove we had gold because that was our money. And Federal Reserve notes were actual obligations to pay gold.

They were notes. The promise was to pay gold. And so our note holders needed an independent audit to know that the United States actually had the gold to make good on its obligations.

But ever since 1971, nobody’s really cared because nobody can get any gold with their dollars. I mean, you’d have to buy gold. You can’t turn them in like you could up until 1971.

But I’ve always had a suspicion that one of the reasons that the price of gold wasn’t already much higher was that maybe the U.S. government was selling its gold into the market to kind of lean on the price or maybe leasing its gold out so that short sellers could sell that gold to keep the price down. So that could be going on. We won’t know until we get an actual audit.

So we’ll see if we actually have one. But if it turns out that we get a legitimate audit and if all the gold is not there, depending on how much less we actually have, that is very bullish for gold because it means that there’s a lot less gold than we thought because the gold that we claim to have didn’t exist. And it’s also very bad for the dollar because it means our reserves to back up our dollars are smaller than everybody thought.

Thank you, Peter. Okay, who’s up next? Carlos. Hey, thanks, Peter.

Yeah. Could you list like your top three, top five gold miners that you’re bullish on? I know Newmont sucks. Everybody knows Newmont sucks.

But they did recently sell three mines and maybe they could sell and become focused on the other ones that they’re developing. But, you know, I know it’s not a recommendation, but why are you bullish on your top three? If you could give those for us. Yeah, you know, Newmont was doing pretty well until recently.

And the stock, you know, the stock is very cheap. I mean, it’s a major mining company and it’s a very inexpensive stock. They just had a lot of acquisitions to digest.

But, you know, the stock’s at 11 times earnings and that’s based on the earnings that are being forecast. I mean, there’s a very good chance that they’re going to earn a lot more than what is being forecast. And so the real P on the stock is a lot less than 11.

And, you know, people are paying 30, 40 times earnings to buy stocks these days, right? That aren’t gold stocks. So Newmont is very cheap. But, I mean, the best stocks have been like the Agnego Eagle and Franco Nevada, which actually had a rough period recently but now has been making new 52-week highs and is acting very strong again.

Also, Silver Wheaton just made a new 52-week high as a streaming company. See, the streaming companies don’t get hit with the rising costs like the miners do. But some of the smaller ones have been acting well.

IM Gold, Kinross, you know, these stocks. Alamos Gold. I mean, these are some of the ones that we own actually in our value fund, not even our gold fund.

Some of these names have been good performers. But I think some of the best ones to buy really are going to be some of these real juniors, legitimate juniors, not necessarily the juniors that are owned by the GDXJ, which is the junior miners, which really isn’t junior miners in the true sense. I think instead of trying to figure out which are the best stocks, just buy my fund.

That’s why I’ve got it, right? That’s got all the best ideas and you’ve got the best guy managing it. So you don’t have to figure out what are their two or three best stocks. Just buy the fund, right? The Europe Pacific Gold Fund I think is the best fund.

I think I hired the smartest gold fund manager that’s alive to run it. He’s been doing it for 40 years. There’s not many other people that have been doing that throughout this big bear market.

The best and the brightest analysts didn’t go into the mining sector. But he’s stuck with it. He knows more.

He’s forgotten more about mining stocks than most other analysts know. He’s the guy that you want picking your gold stocks. And again, the symbol is E-P-G-I-X for that fund.

That’s for the no-load Sierra class. Kostik Monk is next. Hi, I had a quick question for you, Peter.

I wanted to ask with the rise of decentralization finance and the AI-driven investments, where do you see the gold going to go? Do you think gold is going to go? Do you think gold is going to outpass all of it? And with the tariffs happening, would you think that’s going to actually change the gold and silver price as well as funds? Well, I mean, if the tariffs apply to gold and silver, you know, it would certainly raise the price of gold and silver in the U.S. above the world price, which would be problematic. But I don’t know that the tariffs will apply to gold or silver. We’ll see.

Do you think if we actually have a power outage that gold will skyrocket? Say if it just happened for like a two-month period, do you think it’ll skyrocket like no other? If what happened? We had two months without power? Yeah, in just like some locations, not everywhere, but like say partially in America. Well, I mean, I think because it weakens the economy and it means bigger deficits and more money printing. But look, you know, gold is almost $3,000 an ounce.

You know, I mean, it was $20 an ounce when the Federal Reserve was established. So you can see what’s happened. But, you know, when the country, when we wrote the Constitution in 1789, gold was $20 an ounce.

125 years later, it was still $20 an ounce. So, you know, we don’t normally have this. But ever since we established the Federal Reserve and more specifically, ever since we went off the gold standard in 1971, the dollar has just collapsed.

You know, gold was $35 an ounce in the late 1960s. And it’s now 100 times that almost. And that just means the dollar has lost almost 99% of its value.

And the sad thing is it’s going to lose another 99% of its value from here. And it could do it in a much shorter period of time. And that’s why gold is going to be a lot more expensive.

It’s not that gold is going up. It’s just the value of the dollar is going down. So do you believe that cryptocurrency can actually be backed by gold now? Well, you can tokenize gold, right? I mean, just like Federal Reserve notes were backed by gold.

And prior to that, you had private bank notes backed by gold. You can issue a cryptocurrency that’s backed by and redeemable in gold. Yeah, but is it hard to prove that though? Like, okay, this actually is linked to gold? No, it’s actually it’s actually very easy to prove it because you just have an audit and you can even make the audit very transparent.

You can have it online, you know, because all the bars are numbered and assigned for. So you can easily prove how much gold you have and how many tokens you have in circulation to make sure they match. And, you know, you have a mechanism where the owner of the token can present the token for redemption and actually withdraw the physical gold.

Right? So it’s not it’s not hard to do. It’s just that, you know, if you buy tokenized gold as opposed to like Bitcoin, the token is very stable and, you know, it’s not going to go to the moon unless gold goes to the moon. Whereas the demand for tokens is to make a quick buck because of, you know, a big pump.

Right? Because, you know, the things have no real value so they can have any price. A gold token has real value so it’s going to have a real price. But if you have if you tokenize nothing and you just have a fiat token that you just create out of thin air that has no real value, then it could be priced at anything.

Because what’s the difference? It’s not worth anything. So a million dollars is the same as a thousand. Right? Because it’s not worth either.

So that’s where the demand has been. But it will switch. You know, people will eventually, you know, lose too much money in the crypto casino and they’ll you know, the promise of Bitcoin initially was, hey, we could use it as a medium of exchange.

We could use it as a unit of account. You can actually do that with gold. You know? And you don’t have to carry around a big bar.

You know, you could tokenize it and you can use a blockchain if you want or you can you know, there’s other ways to keep track of it. You don’t even need the blockchain because, you know, you can have the custodian manage the books. Yep.

I agree. Thank you. All right.

Who’s up next? Peter, I got another question. Anthony Rubin with muckraker.com. My question is this. So, you know, one thing I’ve been listening to for years and one thing that I’ve always thought, you know, let’s say you do all the right things and you prepare and you buy gold and silver and maybe you get into the right stocks and then you have some sort of character that comes along who’s president and they enact another 1934 Gold Confiscation Act.

And there then there goes all your preparatory measures. well, I mean, what would you say to somebody who fears that? Because to me that seems like the chink in the armor of all this if they just decide to come seize our gold. Yeah.

Well, remember, we only did that once in American history in 1933, but no gold was actually seized. Right. People were were told that they needed to come turn in their gold.

But if you didn’t turn it in, nothing happened to you. I mean, there’s no his there’s no record of anybody going to jail because they didn’t turn in their gold and no government agents were dispatched to search people’s homes looking for gold. It was the honor system.

You either turned it in or you didn’t turn it in. And a lot of people did not turn in their gold. That’s why we still have so many gold coins because the gold coins that got turned in got melted down.

So all the, you know, the older coins that people collect now are there because people violated that order and didn’t turn them in. So I would say that if that were to happen again, you know, people won’t turn them in. I mean, how are they going to know that you have gold? I mean, that’s one of the beauties of gold.

It’s very private. You know, even if they, you know, get the record that you bought it, you could have sold it. You could have lost it.

You know, I mean, you know, they don’t know and they’re not going to be able to find it. and the reason that Roosevelt seized the gold in 1933 was he wanted to devalue the dollar. And so, to do that, he had to take everybody’s gold.

Because remember, when Roosevelt took the gold, it was worth $20 an ounce. But after he got it and he gave everybody $20 for it, he said, now it’s worth $35. So, that was a means of devaluing the dollar to try to stimulate the economy during the Depression.

Well, the government doesn’t have to devalue the dollar anymore. The dollar has no value. They just print as many as they want.

So they don’t really need your gold the way Roosevelt needed it. Now, if the government just wants to confiscate your gold because they want to confiscate assets, there are other assets that they can confiscate that are a lot easier to find. Like your stocks.

Right? Or your real estate. Right? Stuff that you can’t hide that they know where it is, that’s easier to confiscate. But all that is unconstitutional.

So, I don’t think the government is going to seize our stuff. They’re just going to print money and they’re going to seize our purchasing power. And so, that’s what you have to protect yourself against.

Protect yourself against inflation. The only way they’re going to seize our assets is if we really have a, you know, totalitarian revolution, communist type revolution, and then they’re going to come after everything, not just your gold. And the hardest thing to get is going to be your gold.

Right? Because they’re not going to be able to find it. Thank you. Alright, who’s next? Ezra? Mr. Peter? Yes? Seeing as America is on the path towards hyperinflation like Weimar, do you think we will get a Stalin or Hitler? Your thoughts? Well, I hope we’re not, I mean, we’re certainly headed in a direction where hyperinflation is a possibility.

I hope that it’s not an inevitability, because there are things that we can do to avoid that outcome. But there’s going to be a lot of inflation between now and the point that we, you know, do what’s necessary to prevent hyperinflation. We’ll have very high inflation.

But yeah, if we did have hyperinflation, yeah, I mean, you know, we could end up with a real, you know, totalitarian type of government you know, if the hyperinflation is blamed on capitalism and, you know, the greedy rich and, you know, and the solution is, you know, we go all in on socialism. We have to have, the government has to take over the entire economy. I mean, you mentioned Hitler.

Yeah, I don’t think Adolf Hitler would have been able to rise to popularity without the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic. Had he not had that kind of economic environment, plus, you know, the animosity left over from the Versailles Treaty and the war reparations, you know, there was an environment that was created that enabled that. And remember, Adolf Hitler rose to power democratically.

He was elected. The Nazi Party gained their power, you know, through an election. So, it wasn’t a violent revolution.

They were elected into power democratically, which, you know, shows you that, you know, democracy can be a very, very oppressive form of government if you elect the wrong people. You know, that’s why we’re supposed to be a republic to make sure that even if we elect the wrong people, they can’t do the damage because they’re tied up by our checks and balances and our constitution and all the things that we have that limit the forces of democracy. But, yeah, I mean, we’ve lost a lot of those safeguards over the years.

And so, it is possible. But I hope not, you know, and I hope, you know, with the internet now, I mean, they didn’t have the internet in Nazi Germany. So, you know, it was much easier for the propaganda machine to work because it was harder to get the truth out.

But, you know, with X and with Elon Musk, you know, who has now become pretty much a libertarian listening to the stuff that he, Austrian, and he reposts Ron Paul and he posts Milton Friedman stuff. And I think if they tried to do anything like that, you know, Elon would, you know, would get the truth out there. So, I think it’s going to be harder for the government to pull the wool over the people to that degree.

Who’s next? The listener. The listener? Yeah. Hey, Peter.

Just want to say, so, how do you think this is going to go down, kind of? I think there’ll be a recession first and then Trump will name, like, Judy Sheldon as the Powell’s position right now and and then do you think it’ll turn out, the QE will go on and then inflation happens from there or how do you think it’s going to go down? Well, again, I think we’re already in a recession. I think we’ve been in one for over a year. That’s why Trump got elected.

I think we’re going to find out that we’re in a recession officially this year and I think that we’re going to get the same type of stimulus that we got before which is going to throw gasoline on the inflation fire. So, we’re in stagflation. I mean, that’s where we are.

I just don’t think that Trump, I could be wrong and I hope I’m wrong. I just don’t think he’s got the will to level with the public and let them know how bad it’s got to get in order to get better. I just think he’s going to say we need lower interest rates, we need QE, we need regular rates.

I mean, that’s what he demanded when he was president the first time. You know, I can’t see that he’s not going to be a Keynesian like he was, you know, that’s what happened during COVID. Like, you know, there’s an expression there are no atheists in foxholes, right? Because once you’re in a foxhole, you know, you’re praying to God that you don’t die, right? There’s no freedom for free market economists in a recession.

They’re all Keynesians. Nobody is willing to say do nothing and let the recession run its course. Everybody now wants the government to do something, right? And I don’t think Trump is going to say we can’t do anything, we just have to let it happen.

And so, you know, it’s just going to be just what happened during COVID, you know, government stimulus, bigger deficits, money printing, except it’s not going to be starting when the official inflation rate is one and a half. It’s going to be many, many times that. And it’s going to happen at a time where the world is already de-dollarizing, you know, where gold is already broken out.

So we’re in a different environment now. The Fed is not going to get away with another QE program like they did, you know, up until COVID. So, anyway, hopefully that answers your question.

Anybody, we got another guy, Paul? Cornelius. Cornelius. How are you? I’m good, thanks.

Hi, Peter. Hey. So my question is about the difference in value ratio of silver to gold.

Historically speaking, you know, even at the creation of our U.S. dollar, you know, in the early banking days of our country, it was more or less a 15 to 1 ratio of, you know, gold to silver in value. These days, we’re looking at more of like a 90 to 1 ratio. Does that does that have much to do with the difference in the paper trading aspect, so to speak, in the rehypothecation? And could you speak to whether we could see the ratio come back to a value something like 15 to 1, which even historically over, you know, the few thousand years of metals being commodity money, we’ve seen that similar 15 to 1 ratio.

What do you think about the difference we have now compared to other times? And could we see that again? Yeah, I mean, like, I don’t know if we’re going to get all the way to 15 to 1. Maybe things are a bit different than they were at those times. But, you know, I can certainly see, you know, 40 to 1, you know, 30 to 1. You know, we got to 40 to 1 in around 2011 when silver got to 50 and gold was about 1900. We should be able to easily do that again.

I think the main reason that silver is still so cheap, I mentioned this earlier in this talk, is because silver is seen as the poor man’s gold. Silver is what the public buys. The big money buys gold because they have to store it.

And, you know, if you have, you know, millions and millions of dollars worth of silver, it’s bulky to store. If you have millions of dollars worth of gold, it doesn’t, you know, it doesn’t take up a lot of room. And the central banks, they buy gold.

They can’t mess around with silver. So, because it’s been central banks that have been the primary drivers, it’s gold that’s going up. When the public wakes up and starts buying gold, you know, again, I sell gold and silver, you know, I’ve had to shift gold for years and years and business has been slow these last couple of years.

It’s not picked up. I mean, you would imagine that with gold going up 50% in a year, the phones would ring off the hook. Everybody would want to buy.

But they don’t. You know, look at the ETFs. You’re having net withdrawals for over a year.

The public has been selling gold stocks. So, you know, they’re not buying silver the way they normally would in a gold bull market, which is another indication that this gold bull market is still young. It has a long way to go because we haven’t even gotten to really the initial stage where the public gets in.

I mean, we’re not nowhere near the manic stage where the naysayers finally throw in the towel and get in. Right? I mean, we haven’t even started. So, I think this has got a long way to go.

And I think when it really starts to move, you’re going to see the move bigger in silver and you’re going to see it even bigger in the mining stocks. You know, the move, maybe it’s going to be the move from $3,000 to $4,000 that causes silver to move from $32,000 to $100,000. Right? You might have a much bigger move.

You might have a triple in silver. But you may have the stocks, the mining stocks, could go up five or ten times that move. You know, once they break out of this, they’re going to go.

You know, I’m convinced of that. Right? I mean, again, you know, I could be wrong. Right? And so, don’t buy mining stocks.

Don’t buy my gold fund unless you can afford to lose the money you put in. I mean, I don’t think these stocks are going to go to zero. Certainly not all of them.

That’s why you diversify. But I think if you look at the upside potential of gold stocks, where they can go up ten times or 10x or 20x or more. Realistically, they have that kind of upside.

Even if they all went bankrupt, you can only lose 1x. Right? So, if you think about it from a, you know, asymmetric risk-reward, I’m going to put my 10 grand in this gold fund. And, worst case, I lose the whole 10 grand.

But I may turn it into 100 grand or half a million or maybe even a million. So, do I want to make that bet? Yeah, it sounds, and the probability of 100 grand or more, I think is actually pretty damn high. So, I think expected value is very high because the probability of it going to zero, I think, is very slim.

Right? Now, upside potential, which is very, very realistic. So, that’s why, from a speculative perspective, it’s a great bet. It’s a great bet to make.

Because, and these stocks are historically cheap, you know, as far as their prices. you know, anyway. Well, if I may follow up, Peter, just one thing.

The paper ratio in both gold and silver is, you know, hundreds to one. Do you see the problems, you know, between being so over-leveraged in the market between the physical and the paper coming to any, sort of, head? Well, eventually, eventually, look, eventually it’s going to be a problem. I mean, it’s not a problem if you’re long gold.

It’s going to be a problem if you’re short. But, there can be a lot of paper gold trading so long as nobody who’s long wants the gold. Right? So, you can trade a lot of contracts of gold that doesn’t exist.

But, at some point, the people who actually want gold are going to start buying the contracts because the physical supply is just not there. So, they’re going to start buying contracts and instead of rolling them over or cash settling, they are going to notify the exchange that they are taking delivery. Because, every gold and silver contract is deliverable.

So, you buy a futures contract, you have the right to demand the metal shipped to you. And, if you short the contract, you could be forced to deliver the metal. Now, most of the people who are selling futures contracts don’t have the physical and they don’t expect to ever need it.

But, you know, it’s going to happen. Like, in reverse. Remember, during COVID, oil prices went negative.

Now, why did oil prices go negative? Because, oil futures also are deliverable. So, the people who had oil and they had bought oil, the sellers were trying to deliver it. But, the longs didn’t have any place to put it.

So, they had to pay somebody to take that option obligation off their hands. And, so, they actually had to sell oil for negative. They had to pay people to get rid of the oil because they had no place to put it because nobody needed it.

So, the same thing is going to happen in reverse with gold. And, people are going to want to buy gold, but the sellers aren’t going to have the gold. And, they’re going to have to scramble to buy it in a physical market that is very short on supply.

So, eventually, yeah, it’s going to boom. people are speculating, you know, a lot of physical gold is moving around now. Maybe that’s already started.

Maybe there’s already some big deliveries being taken and they’re sucking the gold out of the COMEX or the London Metal Exchange. We’ll see. But, in the meantime, just buy it.

Buy it now. Get the physical and get these mining stocks. Again, Europe Pacific Gold Fund, EPGIX is the symbol.

Thank you, Peter. Yeah, or you can call up tonight and get some silver at Shift Gold. We sell silver, too.

I’d buy silver over gold right now. I mean, gold’s at $3,000. I think it’s going up, but silver’s at $32.

Not even. I mean, it’s ridiculous. Ammon’s next.

Hi, Peter. I love listening to your show. Don’t you think one of the primary reasons that the miners are not going up is because they keep missing the estimates? I know Ken Ross did a method, and I just scratched my head is that these gold prices, how are they not able to blow out the earnings? Well, here’s the reason.

Here’s the reason. Several of these companies already had high estimates, and so they only missed because they weren’t as high as they thought. But the earnings were still like five or six times what they were the prior year.

So earnings have really exploded in these companies. It’s just that they didn’t meet in some cases their numbers, but in some cases they beat. Like, I think Newmont beat, I think IM Gold had a big beat, or is it Agnigo? Some of the companies had big beats, but then they said, oh, next year our costs are going to be higher than we thought.

So if there was anything negative in the earnings announcement, they focused in on that. Oh, shoot, we’ve got to sell this stock. Ignoring the positive aspects of the calls and just focusing on what went wrong.

So you had to be perfect. And even some of the stocks that beat on everything, they sold anyway. Because gold stocks had a big run earlier in the year going into these earnings, but they were still so cheap.

But it doesn’t make any sense. You’re right, the analysts, you look at all these analysts and they think that in three or four years gold is going to be $2,500 an ounce or lower. And meanwhile, it’s almost $3,000 now.

It’s going to be double or more what these analysts think. I remember when I was looking at oil stocks in around the late 1990s and I was buying them because I thought they were cheap and I was looking at these analysts who were covering the oil stock and I looked at their forecast for what they thought oil prices would be in the year 2010, 2015, their long range forecast. And they were forecasting $12 a barrel, $14 a barrel.

It was so ridiculous how low they thought the price of oil was going to be. I was buying these oil stocks and oil was around $20 a barrel, but everybody expected the price in the future to be much lower. And I was like, this is crazy.

The price is going to be higher. And so I was buying these stocks. But they’re doing the same thing with gold.

These analysts think these commodity prices are going down. When do you think these miners will help their own cause and start buying their own stocks? They are. A lot of these companies announced that they increased their share buyback.

So it’s happening. But again, it’s happening in a vacuum. The investors don’t care.

The traders are moving the market around. They buy the rumors, sell the facts, they got long, they’re getting in and out. They’re just trying to make 5 or 10 percent on their money and they get out.

They’re not holding on for the bigger move because they don’t even have the conviction. So we’ve got to flush out all these speculators. Investors are going to come into the market who understand the story and they’re not going to dump the stock as soon as they go up.

I hope you’re right. I’ve been patient so I’ll be patient a bit longer. Thanks for the call.

Thanks for being so great for the American values and stuff. My main question is do you have some inside baseball on the J.P. Morgan when they were messing with the metals prices and stuff like that? Do you have some inside baseball on the J.P. were messing with the and stuff like Do you have any inside baseball on Do you have any inside baseball on the J.P. Morgan when they were messing with the metals prices and stuff like that? Do you You’re you’re messaging always. Yeah.

All right. Let me take one or two more calls. I got to wrap it up by the next nine minutes.

I’m starting to fall asleep. It’s almost one thirty here in Puerto Rico. Who’s up? Stocks and Bondi.

Stocks and Bondi. You’re up. Awesome.

Thank you. For starters, thanks, Peter, for all the work you do. My first purchase ever of a precious metal was with Shiv Gold there, so I’m still hanging on to that.

Has some sentimental value to me now. My question is, it pertains to home ownership. I know where your stance is, kind of like owning a home is a money pit.

But I’d like to own something as opposed to rent and pay into something I’ll never own. What do you envision over the next five to ten years or so the path for a wannabe homeowner? Yeah, look, I mean, I’m not against owning a home. I mean, I own several.

Right. But I own them because I can afford to waste the money on them or spend the money on them. So they are very expensive to maintain a home.

Renting is cheaper now, of course, because of the mortgage and inflation, people were able to get a windfall through inflation by borrowing money to buy a home. And the value of their mortgage gets wiped out over time through inflation. And now they have the asset.

But home prices are so, I think, high right now that, you know, you’re not it’s not really the best way to make money by buying an overpriced home, even if you can do it with a mortgage. But for a long time, I was telling people, look, go out and buy a home and make sure you get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage and lock in these 3 percent mortgages because that’s going to be very valuable to have that. But, yeah, I mean, there are benefits of ownership.

I mean, people buy boats. It’s cheaper to rent them. I mean, I just bought one.

I don’t have it yet. I’ve owned one in the past, but I always knew it was cheaper to rent a boat. But there’s a certain pride and joy of having your own, you know.

And the same thing goes with a home. You know, when you don’t have a landlord, you can, you know, paint the walls the way you want it or, you know, do whatever you want. But, you know, when you own a home, you still have to pay the property taxes.

You still have to pay the insurance. You still have to pay the maintenance. So it’s not like you don’t have to pay.

You’ve got to pay. You’ve got to pay more to own a home. But you do have, you know, nobody you know, they can’t the landlord can’t decide that he’s not going to renew your lease because he wants to do something else with the property so you have more control over your own property.

But you don’t have total control because if you can’t pay the property taxes, just your town can kick you out. So, you know, but just make sure that when you buy a house, make sure you can afford it. Make sure you have the money to maintain it because, you know, it is expensive.

I mean, I’m telling you, I got all these homes and I’m constantly writing checks. Stuff is constantly breaking down and you got to always fix stuff. Awesome.

Thank you very much, Pete. All right. Let’s say one more call or maybe two, depending on how quick this next guy is.

Joe Smokatelli. I’m going to be quick, Pete. First of all, I’m your biggest fan.

But well, I would say that, but I’m not. Actually, Cat Bear is your biggest fan. She preaches your gospel every fucking space.

She loves you like a brother from another mother. And you deserve you. You need to follow her.

Yeah, she’s amazing. She loves you. I got look, I got a monster box of Canadian maples.

I’m hoping you’re right. I’m hoping for the pump. I need to get rid of these things.

Can you will you buy them off me? Jenn Willey is also a fantastic follow. Yeah, I need you to like these these ladies, by the way, I noticed that the ladies love you, Pete. You’ve got some mojo that the rest of us like I want you to have a space.

Let’s not talk about silver. Let’s talk about mojo. Let’s talk about the Peter Schiff magic.

Game respect game. Yeah. Game respect game, bro.

You have what you say. You know, you say you’re my biggest fan. I remember I remember one time I was at one of these conferences, you know, where somebody I think it was Money Show or Freedom Fest or something.

But somebody comes running up to me and he’s he’s a really short guy. Right. I mean, I mean, I don’t even know if he’s five feet tall.

He’s a tiny guy. Right. But he comes running up to me, says, Peter, Peter, I’m your biggest fan.

And I just said, I hope not. No, the ladies love you, Pete. You got some magic and we respect that.

So when I see that, I’m like, you know what? Maybe this guy knows what’s going on. Maybe maybe he knows what’s up. Maybe it’s 2008 all over again.

You never fucking know, bro. I think it’s 2008, 2008. The dollar went up and gold went down.

So I think it’s the opposite of 2008. I think it’s more like over and where the dollar goes down and gold goes up. Oh, boy.

But we’re strapped in, right? Yeah, strapped in. Ladies love you. Follow Cat Bear.

Follow Jen. Well, I’m not going to remember these names when I wake up. I’m too tired.

They love you, bro. They reach you every day, all day long. They they’re your I mean, my God, bro.

They’re your biggest fans besides me. I appreciate that. I appreciate all the reach.

We appreciate you, Pete. You can hear it. It’s reposting now.

It’s not retweeting. Nobody. Oh, thank you for the correction.

We appreciate that. We post. All right, let’s have who’s the last who’s the last speaker? Throw.

Throw. Hey there, Peter. First time first time listener, first time caller, and not as as as loving as Joe, but thanks for everything you do.

Question to you. Do you have any perspective on what your timeline is for how long these tariffs between both countries might last? I know it’s kind of a silly question, but yeah, I mean, I have no idea. I mean, Trump is you know, he puts them on one day and takes them off the next.

I mean, I have no idea what’s going on. I mean, I mean, it’s just anybody’s guess. But that means there’s just a lot of uncertainty that is obviously difficult to deal with.

And that’s the other problem. Like Trump says, oh, you know, we’re going to put these tariffs in place and I want companies to invest in the US. Yeah, right.

But but what happens if I spend a lot of money on these tariffs to build a plant and then the tariff goes away and now I’m screwed because now the cheap imports come in and I can’t sell my products because my costs are too high. So it’s like I don’t know how you can invest in building plants in America based on tariffs that may not be around, you know, long enough. You have to really enshrine the tariffs.

Like these tariffs are here for, you know, 10 years, 20 years or something for somebody to want to commit the investment because they have to know that they can make a return on that investment. All of you know, and it’s just like when also when let’s say he puts 25 percent tariffs on cars coming into the car, you know, coming in from Europe, those cross borders a lot. But, you know, what’s going to happen is a lot of people are going to say, you know, I’m just not going to buy a car right now.

I’m going to wait because, you know, I think the tariffs are probably going to come off. So why should I pay 25 percent more if maybe I’ll maybe I’ll just drive my car for another year and the tariffs will be gone? You know, so it’s going to like a lot of economic decisions are going to be impacted by the tariffs. So now the government doesn’t collect the money because I don’t even buy the car because I’m waiting for the tariffs to go away.

Yeah, good point. And also, if you’re if you’re a lender, how am I going to loan somebody money or especially a lease? How am I going to lease somebody money to buy a car with a 25 percent tariff built in when the tariffs could be gone when the lease is up and then the residual value is crashed? So it’s like the the all this uncertainty is going to make a lot of stuff difficult. So and raise costs.

So do you think that this uncertainty is is ultimately detrimental towards foreign investment into the U.S. economy? Like, yeah, I mean, I think it’s detrimental. It’s always detrimental that you want to have as much certainty as you can, because uncertainty is risk and it’s always a cost of risk. Yeah.

And and, you know, it’s like Trump’s has these policies. You know, we know he’s a one term guy. Now, maybe J.D. Vance could get, you know, but you don’t know who’s going to be president after Trump and, you know, what their their policies are going to be or even Trump could change his mind.

He could put a tariff in now and he could, you know, change his mind in six months, in six days, you know, who knows? He’s done it before, man. He’s done it before. Yeah.

All right. It’s just after one thirty. Appreciate the call.

Hey, everybody, I’m going to do another podcast. Maybe on Friday we got a big jobs report coming out. This is going to be the first jobs report that’s all on Trump, which is why it might be bad, you know, not because of Trump, but they might have been cooking the books when it was Biden.

And now they can throw it all out there now that Trump is Trump is in office. But we’ve been getting a lot of weak economic data. The only weak data we haven’t really got is on the job front, although we did get a weak unemployment number or, you know, strong.

I guess a lot more people filing unemployment claims last Thursday. So we’ll see what we get this Thursday. But, you know, we’ve been getting strong, strong, strong job reports.

Now, of course, they revise them later on and they take away a lot of the strength. That’s been the way it’s been going. But we haven’t gotten a bad report like right off the bat.

Right. When they first released it. So we’ll see what happens.

I’m going to do a podcast probably on Friday instead of Sunday night, because people might not want to wait till Sunday if we get a big number on Friday and the markets really react and people might want to get my reaction that day rather than on Sunday. But anyway, appreciate everybody for listening on YouTube to this live. I think we also.