GOLD: Death Of The Bond Market (Uncut) 04-10-2025

GOLD: Death Of The Bond Market, Global Financial Collapse | Francis Hunt

This is an end of cycle that has been set up to happen. This is literally the reset and the redrawing of the map. I’m not in shock.

I’m amazed by people that still think there’s a melt-up to come. I’ve continued to criticize melt-up callers on the basis of where does the money come from. When you cut a rate, you are increasing the value of the bond.

Somebody’s got to come in and buy at that price. You’re cutting the rates. So that seesaw relationship that we draw and we keep showing people because most people don’t understand debt markets.

To cut rates, you are up-valuing the value of debt. Hello and welcome back to Soar Financially, a channel where we discuss the macro to understand the micro. My name is Kai Hoffman.

I’m the Edge AR mining guy over on X and of course, your host of this channel. And I’m looking forward to catching up with Francis Hunt. He’s well known as the market sniper.

He’s going to help me catch up a little bit here. I was traveling the last five days. You might have seen it.

I was in Rome with my family. But I’m glad I was away from the screens. Absolute mayhem out there and I’m starting to catch up.

I think I couldn’t have invited a better guest to help me do that and help us understand what is happening out there. What are we witnessing right now? Let’s break that down. There’s so much going on.

Just last night, it seems like the bond market is breaking down. We’ll have to figure out why that is, who that is, or who’s moving the market and what’s the rationale here. We’re not at levels yet or yield levels that are just cause for concern, but the move has been interesting.

It’s been a 10% move just in the last 24 hours here, and we need to investigate together. Lots of good ideas. I just had a chance to speak with Francis for 20 minutes before hitting the record button.

We’re in for a doozy. We’re trying to pack in a lot into a 40-minute, 45-minute conversation here. So sharpen your pencils and get your notepads ready because you’ll be learning a lot.

We’ll be hearing a lot. So let’s get ready. Now, before I switch over to my guest, you guys know the spiel.

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Now, Francis, welcome back on SOAR Financially. Good to see you. Delighted to be back with you, Kai.

Thanks for having me on. Yeah, absolutely. You just heard the intro, Francis.

There is so much going on, and I’m glad you’re coming on to help us make sense of what is happening. Ever since the tariff announcement about a week ago, exactly a week ago, it’s been madness out there, quite honestly. Markets have been falling apart.

Tariffs have been hiked on certain countries to absurd levels almost, 104% if I’m not mistaken, on China now. And it seems like we’re seeing a bit of retaliation. And maybe I’ll start off with a speculation on my end here, Francis, but the bond market crash or the crash in bond yields right now does not seem normal.

And I’m starting to think there’s something at play that is bigger than everything else, meaning there’s somebody dumping bonds massively, potentially as a retaliation. Again, that’s me, my gut feeling. I’m trying to check in with Michael Howell and others to see what the liquidity flows are telling us.

But I think there’s a trade war, a tariff war, and a financial war happening right now. What are your thoughts, Francis? Let’s start with that. Well, 100%.

It’s financial war already. We hope that it just stays in the financial space and doesn’t spill into something more, but it often can. And that’s a warning for everybody, first of all.

Then your comment regarding the debt market. We’ve got to remember, and I’ll refer back to 2020, the 40-year bull ended, August 2020 when we called it. And everything that has transpired since then, including Doggy, Elon, Cuts, all of this has got to do with America’s black Amex card with the bottomless overdraft being pulled.

And they get an ordinary, plain, bog-standard blue one with a much tighter credit limit to live with it. Why? Because investors and pension funds and hedge funds and everybody else and even the banking cartel themselves, the primary dealers that have to hold on to debt that they don’t get to sell on, suddenly don’t want the assets that lost 45% in the space of four and a half years. This is a debt-based collapse, and it is the driver for everything that has gone on.

So kind of what’s happened, the analogy I’ll give is the American is the aging, steroided bodybuilder in the room, in the prison cell, and all the other guys, other prisoners have been there, and has been eating more of the rations than everybody else, and is now getting a little bit older. And now the rations are being reduced because the forces are de-globalization. That leads to less trade.

Even before globalization, there was trade, and people were pursuing a low tariffs policy towards what eventually became globalization. That is now reversing too. So when you increase tariffs, you increase inflation, and you reduce the overall pie size as you do with de-globalization.

If everybody works together, you can have 1 plus 1 plus 1 equal 5 instead of 3. When everybody starts going everybody for themselves, 1 plus 1 plus 1 can equal 1.75, because you’re getting an inverse multiplier effect by no longer cooperating. So that whole notion of together you can do more does hold when you start to fight. The prisoners are starting to fight about the portion sizes, and the big bully wants to hold on to what he had, and in fact wants a little bit of your, the rest of the guy’s portion.

So that’s an analogy I would give. If we look at the UST credit market, we actually had a head and shoulder, and we’ve said, okay, there is a bit of bids potentially coming in to the debt markets because of the fear. This is an incredible equity market sell.

Absolute trillions, I can’t give you the number, the up-to-date number, has gone out of the equity markets. Normally in that binary world of the 60-40 portfolio, the fear in the equity market was the pump on the bond markets, never to the same degree. It’s a more stable market, supposedly, until of course the turn in CB19, post-CB19.

But what you’ve actually seen here is you’ve had a sell-off in rates, which means a bit of bond strength, and then suddenly you’ve had this surge another way. So hold on a minute. We’ve got fear.

The fear indicators bond strength, rates down. But in actual fact, since the collapse started, I would say, on the equity markets, or the second leg of collapse, which has been violent as the tariff narrative has come on, it was already collapsing over here. But since the second leg, which is this part down, you’ve reversed all of that.

So your notion and your thoughts about, is someone unloading a little bit of US debt into any strength? I would, if I was China. So I think you’ve got real validation. And the truth of the matter is the rate should be spilling on the 10-year, far harder, far further.

And this is part and parcel of our thesis, that debt is not sought after in any way, in the same way as it used to. This, the bond market 40-year turn, is the big seminal event. And it is the driver for everything we’re seeing right now.

Yeah, absolutely. And it might have been the last drop in the bucket, of course, the tariff announcement. Personally, I’m a bit surprised how everybody’s reacting.

You’ve been on this channel before. A lot of other guests made similar commentary that we were near peak, we’re at 6200 in the S&P 500. And now we’re 48 or so.

I haven’t checked this morning what the future is telling us. But it’s not looking great out there. And everybody seems shocked and surprised.

We’ve been talking about this debt base collapse, the mistrust in US like solvency in general, de-dollarization trends. I’m almost tired of repeating it all. Because we’ve been talking about this for the last two, three years here on our channel.

So the question maybe, Francis, is maybe we’re, maybe the eye of Mordor, our eyes too focused on tariffs right now. Where should the eye of Mordor be looking at right now? Ray Dalio warns us that investors are too focused on tariffs, not paying enough attention to the breakdown in major monetary, political and geopolitical orders. What do you make of that statement? Yeah, I think the misdirect is on the three Ts, tanking the markets, Trump and tariffs.

Everyone’s based on short termism. Nobody sees the larger picture. This is an end of cycle that has been set up to happen.

This is literally the reset and the redrawing of the map. I’m not in shock. I’m amazed by people that still think there’s a melt-up to come.

And I’ve continued to criticize melt-up callers as on the basis of where does the money come from? Previously, it came from QE, which is money borrowed into existence. Nobody wants the debt anymore. We’ve just shown you the tenure.

You’ve got the absolute capitulation in the S&P futures that I have up at the moment. And I see it going lower, by the way. And on top of that, you don’t have a major improvement in the bid under the debt markets.

So the focus is always going to be on the political characters, Trump, who’s belligerent. He’s the kind of guy, look, you’ve got to pick a fight and break up a sort of cooperation. So you have a belligerent guy who says, we want a better deal.

We want a better deal. When they’ve been the owner of the exorbitant privilege and they’ve abused it, and they’ve got to the end of the cycle and they can see there’s the ability to abuse it is now being retracted. By the way, I don’t reflect that on the average American.

It is just the policy of government, the particular, this very sort of military war is peace type government that has actually overspent and continued to overspend and over proliferate and has created a variety of bubbles with subsequent crises where they socialized the losses onto the people, leading to further proliferation. That’s what quantitative easing is, whilst privatizing the profits for the banking cartel. So in actual fact, the cacocracy system that was created by the banking cartel that is essentially feasted, whether they win or lose at the cost of the general citizenry, has brought us here over an entire cycle.

So this is the end of Falker, you know, who brought the stiff medicine and forced the stagflation of the 70s. And our opinion is you now have the hyper stagflation, which is going to be stubbornly high inflation, which the tariffs, which the deglobalization, which everything will bring, and at the same time, very low and even negative growth. So that’s our definition for hyper stagflation.

It’s not hyper inflation, and it’s not depressional level growth. It’s a combination of both, not necessarily to the same extreme, but because of the combination of the two, both in a very bad place, it’s a hyper version of stagflation that you had in the 70s. And you’ve had folks on there that don’t even think that we’re in a stagflation.

It is 100% a stagflation. Growth is going to be very hard to find in this environment. We’ve already been in a recession, and it’s my opinion we’ve still been in it.

It’s funny how all of us that called the recession when we met the criteria of the recession and stuck to that and kept repeating it, suddenly we find out that, you know, the DEI hires and all the government hires and the contracting companies to government that hired that during the Biden era said you can’t have this level of employment and be in a recession. Now that we have Doggie, you now have Larry Fink come out and say all the companies that he has shares in, the CEOs that he speaks to say they’ve been in a recession for a while. So first they deny the truth, deny the truth, and then once you’re already halfway through what’s going to probably escalate and get worse, and I would say we don’t do normal recessions anymore, they now start finally admitting once you’re really in the belly of a very harsh downturn on re-rating a hyper-valued stock market as a result of proliferation.

So you have a hyper-valued stock market and you have a nobody who wants to buy the bond market off, it crashed 45 percent in four years, it’s supposed to be a stable borrowing market, where should everything go? The only reserve asset, and that is gold, and gold has been doing and rewarding everybody for seeing this and not being taken off with stories of a final blow-off. There is no final blow-off without QE, there can be no QE if no one’s going to buy the debt because the bankers themselves have to hold it on their books if they issue that money and they don’t want it. Remember they own the Fed, okay, so they give direction.

That’s why Powell is also saying you won’t do a cut until maybe much later into the year if needed to because of the inflation they burnt by their transitory inflation last time after the CV19 events. So the bond market is proving stubborn in really going down in the rates despite it being a clear recession and that’s the problem. You had your Goldilocks under Greenspan, you get your inverse Goldilocks.

You know Goldilocks was stubbornly low inflation no matter how much money he printed. In fact, there was huge inflation, you had a housing boom and you had a stock market boom. Now we’re on the downside, we have to unwind the housing and the stock market boom and you have stubbornly high inflation and very bad growth.

Meanwhile, the last time you were growing on incredibly low inflation. You don’t have day without night, it’s a natural balance and it was set up over a much bigger cycle than just the current president. Absolutely, lots to unpack in there, Francis.

Lots of follow-up questions. I want to stay on the bond market real quick because Trump and Besant both said that’s what they’re looking at. Besant indicated that he wants a lower 10-year yield.

Obviously, a lot of it hinges on the interest rates in the bond market. 4% is definitely more attractive than 5%, 6%. Simon Hunt, I think even called for 8% or 9% here.

Somebody’s saying F you, quite honestly, in the bond market right now and this is not happening. Is it the bond vigilantes? I’m trying to make sense of it a little bit. It feels like somebody’s trying to derail the politics here that are being run and crashing the equity market goes hand in hand, as you said exactly earlier, and that’s what the bond market did until last night, pretty much.

It went down. The yields went down because interest was there. I’m trying to figure out, okay, somebody’s messing with the political agenda here.

Is that just the investors? I’m speculating. There’s a lot going through my head right now. I’m trying to formulate it and apologies to the audience that I sound incoherent here.

I don’t think it’s somebody actively in an emotional state trying to throw a right hook back at America. I just think that the way all the decks are positioned, the correct trade is on any strength in the debt market unloaded. Why? If I’m holding $800 billion of USTs, I’m looking at the gold market and I’m saying, what am I doing here? Okay, they’re crashing their stock market to try and get their rates down so that they can refinance $9 trillion at a lower rate and I’m sitting with that asset that I know has got after that only one way down.

They’ve got $9 trillion to dump. The minute they introduce any strength into that market, I’ll be the guy that will be providing supply and I’ll be flipping it into gold ounces. That’s me sitting as the head of Treasury.

It wouldn’t matter to me if I had an amazing relationship with America or whether I had a terrible one. The logical trade is get rid of the debt-based asset. The cycle has turned.

I understand that. The cycle has definitely turned for gold. It is a long term up.

There is so much to unwind. I want the reserve asset. I don’t even think it has to be, you know, I’m going to stick one back at you.

That doesn’t have to be anything malicious. Just looking after your own portfolio, looking after what’s right for you and your country says remove all exposure to American debt instruments on any rally of strength. You’ve had a deval in the debt market part of the way.

It’s not the full job and now you’re getting a deval in the hyper-valued stock market. Again, part of the way. You’re still sitting on 30 PEs.

I think last time I checked it was 111 PEs. You go, oh, so I gropped it two days ago, so this might not be accurate. The bulk of the Mag 7 are still on 30.

I think only Google was sub 30. You know, come on. We grew up in the 70s where 12 and a 15 PE was strong, you know, and these guys are relying on statist expenditure, which currently has to cut apart from the military industrial complex, where Trump one minute said he was cutting the Pentagon by 8%.

And now he’s told Bibi Netanyahu that he’s going to push it through 1 trillion. So the mixed message is there on the military industrial complex. And of course, the aid to Israel stroke, you know, the Zionist context, but everything else they are actually cutting.

So if I was Amazon and AWS servers and all of those things, I’d expect all those contracts to be looked at pretty harsh. And Microsoft will compete for, you know, all of this. So the Mag 7 also much further to the downside to go.

And the rest of the stock market, you’re talking about housing, you’re talking about commercial property, that none of these things are properly deflated. And let’s also not forget junk debt, junk debt, any rally in that I would be unloading HYGs, all sorts of things. We’re looking for shorts on the markets.

And as ever, wanting to go long gold. This is the first stage. I want to tell you why I say it’s only the beginning of a much bigger unwind.

We haven’t yet turned. Where’s the gold silver ratio? There’s the gold silver ratio. We’ve poked through in the modern era only for the second time, the 100 level.

That’s the blue line there that I’m indicating. I’ll just make it really clear where I’m pointing here. There.

That is the 100 level right there. The only other time we didn’t get turned back down at the 90 level, turned down the orange boxes, turned down, turned down, turned down. The only other time was CB19.

Essentially, we have done something that the only comparable in the recent modern era is when they shut down the whole goddamn world and stopped SMEs from doing business. Although Amazon.com could still sell you packages. They told you on the news.

You remember that? Apart from a few elites, what I’d call new world order one Internet companies, everybody stopped being able to generate income. That was the period in March 2020. And gold and silver is up there.

This has barely started because silver has not yet begun outperforming gold. And I want to answer a question that you haven’t asked, but many of your viewers will be asking. Francis, when do we pivot? Because I get it a lot.

When do we start buying more of silver and less of gold? Trade, the first stage has always been our answer. You should be stacking gold through phase one. Don’t jump to phase two yet.

The answer comes with the break of the 75, 76 gold silver ratio. So until gold and silver, this is one of our indicators for how you should position when you should be buying more silver instead of gold, et cetera, et cetera. And when you’re coming out of this process and going into a melt up that it hasn’t even started, this could still go higher.

Only when you break here do you start stacking more of the silver. So gold has served you better as a performer so far. That’s how early we are in the cycle.

We’re still in the bit where gold leads and runs. We haven’t got to phase two yet. So this is there’s a lot more hyper valuation to unwind in all the financially leveraged assets with debt.

And by the way, that will also include current assets like subprime cars, which are not really appreciating assets in most cases. So there’s a lot of financial engineering, even in things that aren’t really assets to unwind. So this gets this goes longer and deeper.

Ignore the melt up, guys. This is a beginning of a process. You’ve only had the first strike.

You will get rallies. Those should be shorted. For instance, you said one thing because you just said melt up.

You said one thing. We’ll have one final blow off. And that is based on QE flooding the market.

And if you could elaborate on that. No, no. But you said that earlier.

So I just want to follow up on that. I’m critical of people who have been saying that on the basis that to have a melt up, you need a flood of liquidity. And where’s that flood of liquidity come from? To get that flood of liquidity, you either need incredibly low rates.

So the Fed would have to drop all quantitative easing words to the effect of because your consumer is wrecked. You’re now getting admissions by corporations that they’re in recessional conditions. So the only way is really down.

And the position I described with the Fed in terms of interest rates and how they got it wrong in transitory and CV-19 and why J-PAL is going to be reluctant to do an emergency cut of any form is that there’s nobody who wants to do the debt. When you cut a rate, you are increasing the value of the bond. Somebody’s got to come in and buy at that price.

You’re cutting the rates. So that seesaw relationship that we draw and we keep showing people because most people don’t understand debt markets. To cut rates, you are up valuing the value of debt.

And as you saw from the USD tenure, any strength when the tenure yield went down, it spiked back up. Somebody was saying, oh, you’re offering that amount. Here, have mine.

Boom, off you go. So the point is the melt-up people are dangerous to people’s wealth. You need to stay with the trend.

The trend is correctional. It is gold up. Gold is your best friend right now.

Until we break 75, then silver becomes your best friend. And gold still remains a good friend. And until then, you drive this thing down.

This is a 40-year bond bull market of hyper-valuated assets from housing to everything that has financial leverage that all has to be unwound. Massive job losses come as a result of tariffs, high inflation, people selling less globally. You’re losing large parts of your markets.

This is everybody for themselves. We’re no longer working together. One plus one now equals 1.25. This is the portion size in the prison getting smaller.

You decide whether they kiss and make up or there’s going to be a brawl. I’m in the brawl camp. And the big guy doesn’t want to give up his share.

And he actually wants a bit of yours. And I’m afraid it doesn’t work like that. No, absolutely.

It doesn’t look like anybody’s willing to give up anything right now. It doesn’t make any sense. And again, a lot of raw thoughts going through my head still.

I’m really trying to figure out what the consequences are. We touched on the bond market. We’ve been veering around a little bit.

But the consequences, intended or not, of higher yields need to be discussed here. Of course, the first question is, for instance, where do you see the yields going for the 10 year, which is the most important one, I’d say. Where do you see the yields going? And what does it really higher yields mean, like 5, 6, 7, 8 percent? What is that going to reflect? You touched on real estate, mortgages, throwing that all in there, because it seems like this is the end of the road here for many things.

I’m curious. In the US, a key point. So when we were up there at 4.8 on the US 10 year yield, even though rates came down, the banks in America were not passing that on in full.

So when they came down to these levels, the banks have turned and they were declining more applications than ever before. So A, they want more margin. They’re expanding margins and they’re declining credit.

This is people that have realized that the assets, inverted commas, that they’re creating has got diminished demand because they package that and they sell it on as an asset into the investment banking. People don’t want debt as assets anymore. Pension funds need a lifeline.

So that is another reason when the system denies that. What does that do to housing prices? Well, every American is financially leveraged. Yeah.

Well, that’s not correct. That’s an absolutism. But most of the market is money down, deposits and mortgage.

Of course, there’s boomers that have paid their homes off and have 100% owned their properties, but that’s not the norm. They’re dying off. They’re leaving it to the kids, etc., etc.

This asset, a smaller generation, is coming up behind the boomer. They can’t pay it. They have less work.

They have less jobs. They have less access to finance. How are they buying the dying boomer’s house at the price he thinks it’s worth? It isn’t going to happen.

And you have the knock-on effects of commercial property, the unlet, all of this. You have a banker problem. You have bank-based issues right now.

In fact, there’s even backups in the SWIFT system that are causing problems right now. I’m concerned that I haven’t got enough of my liquidity out of the banks into the right kind of assets, which is gold at the moment, and physical properties. And remember, property will lag because other people, even if you are not, are financially leveraged in it.

And the leverage is being withdrawn because the debt-end product that is created when you create a loan is undesirable as an asset now since the debt market turned. And the main asset that is tweeting like hell is the yellow canary in the gold mine, and it’s gold. I want to show you a couple of other things, Kai.

I want to take your guys might be saying, what do I trade? How do I make money when everyone’s dying? Exactly. Quick trade ideas for you. Instead of agonizing about the bond market, the prices will be what they be.

We’ll find out the story later. I’m way more patient with narratives. I don’t have to know now it will come out.

The trade I see is, yes, there still will be some dollar strength to come as a result of their muscle and what they are doing. But I want to highlight this chart and tell everybody we are very, very long. The Korean won by the USD Korean won.

That’s a dollar dominance to the Korean won. By the way, my trade is gold Korean won. But of course, I’m gold USD and USD Korean won.

That’s how you do it. It’s hard to get that particular trade. This is a currency that’s going to be very, very badly affected.

We had a massive technical target that was eventually made. I haven’t got it on log scale. It’s multi-decade on the KOSPI.

This is a flight capital risk. You think of South Korea, it is much more in trouble than someone like China. You’re talking about Samsung, LG, but a smaller, much smaller nation that doesn’t have the might.

It has about 44 plus percent of export. China’s down to sub 20 officially on its export. A lot of the consumption is actually local.

So the people that are reliant on export markets get hurt first. That’s going to be, unfortunately, Germany. It’s going to be Holland that’s in the 80s.

It’s going to be Vietnam that was in the 80s. Now we have to expect that if China’s down at 20, there are some proxies where there’s China business, maybe in Vietnam, maybe in Mexico selling in. So maybe the 19 is a bit low.

But there are actually other nations that are going to be worse hit by this that are smaller. South Korea, first world nation. This is our pick for the biggest trade.

We’re talking about a halving in the USD Korean won as a result of this particular structure. And when the KOSPI goes down, it’s a flight capital nation. It’s got a lot of foreign investment in it.

So when the KOSPI crashes, you see the KOSPI crashing over here. You had a major move in the USD Korean won. You see the KOSPI crashing over there.

You had a major, that was the Asian crisis move in the Korean won. A lot of the wealth is flight capital. You saw the correction in 2018 into the lows of 220.

You see the USD Korean won. You see that subsequent proliferate. Okay, that went up.

You saw the KOSPI Korean won, the USD Korean won go down. We are now in a macro setup. Watch the Korean won for collapse.

Watch the Korean won for collapse and the KOSPI down. You see the KOSPI turning down, bear flag, two shooting stars there. Let’s just give you a bit more of a better visual on that.

Let’s expand it. Where are we today? Sell-off, you see the USD Korean won going up, the red and the blue arrows. Weak grind upwards, which is actually bullishness but very weak.

And in fact, the Korean won still lost value. It went up as well. So now you’re having this bounce and now you have two shooting stars there and there and a break.

This is a bear flag break to the downside. That goes up and that’s your trade. So that’s one way you build wealth in a collapsing market.

I have other ways. I want to remind everybody that we’ve said gold long, oil short. Everybody thinks they’re both commodities.

No, they’re not. One’s money and it’s a reserve asset when all other reserve assets fail and you’re in that space right now. The reserve assets are failing.

Debt is a fail. Oil relies on consumption, delivery, purchasing, packaging and everything. And it’s a consumer sensitive item.

And we have been stating that the world is in a recession and you’ve had this technical pattern backing us up all the way. There’s your head and shoulders. This is gold divided by oil.

And this is a reversal. Remember oil was up at 130, 129 and gold was going sideways for three years from its 21 high and it was around 1800. This is what’s happened since the 28 barrels, one ounce buying you 28 barrels.

We said you’re going to run through 61. And this is a major reversal to the upside being long gold. So we are long gold, short oil.

You can literally sell a hundred thousand dollars of oil. Now, this is late in the day. We’ve been saying this for a year and a half, by the way, while David Hudson and the rest have been saying meltups for the stock market.

This is your trade and this is a fear trade. This is a recession trade. This is a jobs cut trade.

This is a deleveraging trade. This is a reserve asset, the only real reserve asset. This is going to move.

And that’s the same trade we gave pre-Covid as a point. I just want to remind it’s the exact same one. That’s why there’s a lot of feel.

This was the inverted head and shoulder that we called then. We said go long and we think oil will go single digits. We said it then.

I don’t think this time, but it will go a lot lower in our opinion. And this is what happened. Bang.

You got your infinity spike because oil hit zero, didn’t just hit single digits as we predicted. It hit zero and gold ran to its 2021 high. You are now in the next gold leg up on a red consumer.

It’s the central banks and everything else. Here’s a trade that will go further. Look, you’re coming late.

If you’re not following our channel, you could have got this 18 months before. But here’s another trade. We’re short crypto.

We’re using our opportunity to be short a couple of crypto tokens, amazing technical patents. They will have a second leg down. I’m sorry.

It’s not digital gold. Your digital scarcity does not count to the same level as having to expend huge amounts of energy to extract a really precious metal with unique properties from the ground. That’s our positioning.

And I’m hoping that there’s some value there. Maybe you want to drill down on some of that. I do, actually, because I want to ask you, why didn’t you get shaken out of the oil gold trade or long gold short oil trade back in November when the charts started breaking down a little bit? Where did you take the optimism from? So here’s how you trade an inverted head and shoulder.

Stop loss is on the right shoulder. The trigger is there when you break. So you might have got ghost triggered in there.

You would have had a small period of red. Then it re-triggered. Then you get a return move.

All of that is to be expected. So it was a slow starter and then boom, it started giving very generously. And now you’re going into a parabola.

So you should not have been stopped out over there. Your stop should have been under your right shoulder and your entry is there. I prefer much tighter positioning.

You could have, of course, waited. If you came to it late, your stop could have been there and that would have been a better risk reward. So if we join the risk reward, that would have been it over there.

We called short on oil quite a long time ago and it sort of coughed and spluttered. You know, they keep creating possibilities of a war or a conflict. It’s been a bit of a frustrating initial start.

It didn’t go down straight away. But the good news is the gold didn’t wait. The gold got running.

So you would have been making plenty on the upside of the gold market during that period. Let me just get some sense out of that. So this is how your profile should have looked if you came late.

And you should still be in this trade, by the way. And I wouldn’t close it at the 61. So that means an ounce has gone from buying you at the very lowest level when oil was $130, 14 barrels to buying you over 61 barrels.

I would close 50% of the position and overperformance manage that. This is a big cycle. You may get that spike.

I doubt you can get the COVID scale spike of a zero when you know what happens when you divide by zero. But I think it goes a lot further on that. So and it’s in a parabola.

It’s a hard chase now, I admit it. But you’ve got the Korean one that’s about to start. And we’ve got an amazing crypto short, not a crypto channel.

I get that. I’m shorting the stuff because I can and I have it and it’s winning for me. But if people want to find out more about that, we’re going to short some of that stuff as well.

And we’re expecting to take some green with very, very tight risks and very expansive capitulations to the downside. No, I appreciate you elaborating on that. It’s really, really helpful.

And it’s always good to leave the viewers in our audience with some ideas of how to play this. Like I usually like to ask, like Francis, if I were to give you a million dollars today, how would you invest? But that’s my last question. We’ll save it because it’s a good summary question because I don’t want to end here just yet, Francis.

A couple more questions. It feels like I’m jumping around a little bit, but we need to talk U.S. dollar real quick because we touched on it before hitting the record button. And the status of the reserve currency and how is it trading and how is it behaving? Can you have your cake and eat it too, is sort of the question here.

That’s the game the U.S. is playing. It wants a powerful dollar, but I think they’re confusing money with branding. And I’ve said that in other conversations as well.

Where do you stand on that topic and what’s the chart telling you right now? Is the Dixie finally breaking down versus the rest of the world or is it holding it strong? It’s a good question. I’ll tell you the emerging nations that didn’t be treated favorably with the tariff narrative. South Africa is one as well that has borrowings in dollar.

And you’re seeing the RAND hit a new high here. I say that I live and own property there and I’m purchasing some more. So I’m almost willing the currency to collapse.

But the purchase is getting cheaper. You’re here. You can see you’re going through 20.

By the way, they went through 25 against the pound. That’s having offshore. So then that the currencies that get hammered, there will be a dollar strength period is part of the collapse.

Why? Not because it will be a healthy strength, because if China dumps their debt, they become big sellers as the U.S. gets more aggressive. What tends to happen is the rates go up. When the rates go up, the currencies go up.

So the debt starts collapsing again. So when the rates go up, the debt market is dropping because of that relationship, the Cecil relationship that has an artificial by nature of design because of the hegemonic currency. It only does this on the dollar.

The people will hold dollars because they’re getting paid more in terms of interest. So the weak currencies that can’t make their dollar based debt payments, such as South Africa, Turkey, some of the others that are borrowed, the economic hitmen, you know, Perkins’s book, there’s plenty of nations that had infrastructure borrowed into existence and paid for in dollars and that don’t have a proper hedge. That’s going up.

I’ve given you the Korean one will go up. But remember, gold wins in the end. So we’re going to have a period where you’ll have some fiat spikes on the dollar as part of its death now.

And then the winner is always gold. So gold will continue to do well. It might have small pullbacks when the dollar surges, but that’s part of the death.

Eventually, you’ll get dollar going up and gold going up in those dollar terms. You’ve already had some of that for now, but you’re going to have mooning up. You’re going to have a spike in the dollar and you’re probably going to have an associated spike in gold.

That’s when you know this is really accelerating and you’re getting close to the point where you want to start watching that gold silver ratio and pivoting into silver phase two. People have jumped the gun. They went to heavy silver and they’re actually watching gold outperform now because they think, oh, I’m late.

I’ll jump to phase two. As these phases play out, the dominoes got to fall first and then it knocks the next one over. You can’t.

And it’s a slow motion big thing. So the dollar against the emerging currencies is actually firm. And even against the one, as I’ve said, we’re expecting a collapse, the contagion of exports and the damage it will do to small, medium sized nations, even first world ones is high.

However, if you do the Dixie, it’s a little bit less spectacular. Recently, the euro had a bit of a run against the dollar and now it’s come back down. So let me just take all my lines off and get us into a weekly chart.

You can see the euro had a bit of a run, but now suddenly the debt market started to go back up. You’re seeing that, as you’ve mentioned, that’s fascinating you as to why. And you can see what that does to the Dixie.

It crashes it down, which means you’re having dollar strength. If we go euro, you’re in Germany. So it’s probably easier to see it on the euro USD.

My apologies, not dollar strength. It’s been dollar weakness against the euro land because also we’re expecting this is a huge thing. And I needed to say this to you because one of the reasons I said get sore financial on before we talk at your amazing event on the 15th and 16th of May, which we’re really looking forward to going to Frankfurt for is that the European debt markets, because of America withdrawing the military cover and wanting more payments out of it, the Europeans are now discussing borrowing and even from the lions seizing private savings, she said, which we suspect is to be invested in the military industrial complex for building weaponry.

So what that will do, it’s going to start pushing rates up on European rates. It’s going to have. So Europe is one step behind America.

They are going to have their debt markets start to get devalued. They’re going to have the rates go up. Housing is going to get more expensive by virtue of it’s going to properties will drop because the cost of buying will get more expensive for those needing to borrow.

And this is where we’re at. So I want to show you this, that that’s seeing it’s led to a little bit of artificial strength to the euro because they are going through the process that America went through in August 2020, when it created nine trillion. And I will just take the German one as the key one as to why I justify that statement.

So we don’t make any statements about anything without a technical position that has been proven to show that there is something coming. We don’t just say, hey, there’s going to be a melt up because we think there should be. This is a technical structure.

Many of you will notice it. And this is a squeeze of volatility that has had a breakout. Yes, it’s had a pullback.

There’s been a lot going on. But that is a very strong breakout candle. And we see this reasserting after the return move.

So this is the German 10 year yield. And it’s the same for the French, the Dutch and the UK, by the way, all the northern European nations that are going to be the most likely to have to borrow to help buy military industrial complex armory. So these are all pointing.

And if I throw a draw tool on that, I’ll even give you our targets on where it goes. You’ve got to recognize that for now, Europe’s rates are lower than America. You not so long ago, you were talking about, let’s just get that there.

We are talking about America in the 4%. You can see not so long ago, right here, Germany was at 2, 2.3. And in fact, in the lowest points here, they’re at 2% borrowing. America’s saying, why are we paying four and five to protect you when your bond market is at two? You can borrow and buy your own weapons and do that.

And this is exactly what’s happening. So we are calling a 4% on the German, a 4.6 on the French and the Dutch and the UK going through five on debt borrowing. So what that does is that’s going to actually lead to a bit of Euro land currency strength whilst the debt market is decaying.

So we’re going to get Europe getting to the same level of damage, aka interest rates on money and devaluation of debt in all the major Northern European nations, probably for a splurge for some military industrial complex, Russia bad, you know the story as well as any of us. And Germany is one of the lowest rates and we see them going through four despite this pullback. So we’re giving you a contrarian to current momentum call.

Debt markets in Europe decay. That’s going to lead to a fake Euro strength for a while, which will mask some of the inflation for a bit, but it’s going to cause the prices of property to come down. And that’s going to increase borrowing costs for all other kinds of business.

It’s going to be pretty bearish. So increasing rates, especially if you’re in a recession, is not a good place to be at. Economic outlook for Eurozone, terrible.

I couldn’t have said any better. And that’s exactly how I feel, Francis. Couldn’t have said it any better.

We’re absolutely looking horrible here in Europe and the signs are just getting worse. Phenomenal, phenomenal content here, Francis. Now, allow me to ask you my last question here.

And if I were to come to you with a million dollars, how would you allocate it? And again, it’s not financial advice. Let’s get through that disclaimer here. It’s more of a summary of what we’ve been discussing.

How would you allocate it right now? Yeah, it’s a great question, by the way. And of course, given a question like this, as A, non-advisory, but B, it would very much depend on the profile of the individual. Let me say if it was Cai’s, the 20-year-old version, it would be very difficult, different to the 65-year-old Cai.

But if I was to put you on the younger mid area, I would be quite aggressive on gold holdings, gold miners. And I think you’d want to buy the gold miners when the silver ratio turns. So I would be very overweight gold on the long side and I would actually be short most things else.

As I’ve mentioned, the oil, I managed to show you the gold oil market without actually showing you oil. It’s hemorrhaging cash for me that trade. Now, it took a long time and everyone was going, started to laugh at us at a point, but that is now catching up.

And this is another thing. So I would be short oil shares, long gold shares. You could do that trade, even though the gold shares are going to start running more in time.

They’ve done OK. They’ve already started shifting, but I would definitely be short those. We put shorts on Halliburton.

You see, that’s quite sophisticated trading rather than investing, I suppose. So maybe I’m taking you into the weeds outside of the remit of your question. But literally, if I wasn’t doing any trading where I was doing things short, I would almost say, outside of some cash, I’d be largely, because I’m active, I’d be largely gold, the actual assets, and I would be getting ready to move into gold and silver miners and silver of that silver ratio trade.

I would also potentially buy shorts and puts on the Korean one and oil for further downside. For those of those who are watching, and this is why I always try to add value if I come on a show and give some alpha that hopefully will perform. And we have a decent record on the big timeframes, I would argue, is that this is a lot further to go.

You know, our earliest targets on the head and shoulder is around 32. You could go quite a bit lower on that. It’s an inverted HVF that’s on the right shoulder of a massive head and shoulder after hitting the 129 highs.

So oil to go down, stay out of oil stocks, stay out of, we’re short Halliburton, we’re short military industrial complex in America, they’re not going to get the same amount of money. BA and Boeing, their airlines are terrible. People are going to stop flying, even though oil is getting cheaper.

So, you know, both on the military and on the commercial flying, those are absolute shockers. So, you know, there aren’t going to be a lot of airlines ordering new fleets of air buses or Boeing’s, particularly Boeing’s right now. So this oil price further down.

So gold and wait for it to, I would almost say apart from your cash needs short term, I put a lot in precious metals, by the way, just to check in with everybody, because gold did sell off. You’ve done a technical rejection at the 3150 after making this big flag. Again, as a reminder, we were on your program literally right as it happened.

We said this is your best entry for a very strong move up to the 3000-2900 threshold. We went 3156, we had a harsh sell off and you’re probably starting to see a bit of basing coming in. You shouldn’t catch a knife that could come down a little more.

But if you’re taking the long term view, gold’s your best hope. No, phenomenal. Francis, you preemptively asked my very, very last question here about the gold price.

But I do have to maybe throw in like, where do you see it going long term? Is it even a realistic question to ask right now? So if we had, they need to lean on the faith and confidence of big old wisdom that sees gold as a to truly get its back. There’s a technical question where you could say, what would the gold price need to be for current debt levels official? I think they lie about the debt levels, but that could take the likes of silver to 2000 and gold to 40000. If you backed every bit of money that has been created, that goes without a derivative understanding and an unwind.

I think that’s on conservative numbers. So that’s a theoretical valuation that I don’t say you necessarily could make. But you could actually, because of derivatives and unwinding and emotionality, overshoot that as well.

You can make an argument that you don’t go to the mean, you overshoot beyond. I do see a point where, you know, you’ve got to look at those Dow Jones and S&P 500 to gold ratio of years gone by and recognize that gold will be that valuable, that it will buy you a basket of at those classic levels of 1980 again and possibly more, because this is more than the 1980 gold run. This is a synchronized, globalized, debt based collapse where everyone has kissed the chief leper and become part of the leper colony.

There is no sound money nation. Someone can make a case for Singapore and Switzerland desperately trying to be enclaves. But even still, this is a leper colony and it’s the biggest scale you’ve ever seen in your life.

This is bigger than the 1980s. That’s where I’m at. So, I mean, I can throw out crazy numbers and try to grab a headline.

I tend not to get into a call that if you’ll excuse the face. But theoretically, you’re at 40000 and 2000 silver if they need or they allow it to get that far. I do feel they’re going to quickly insert a new derivative concept that’s going to be obviously digital money.

We know where they are. Euroland, by the way, October this year are planning to release that if that’s not a tell for what happens between now and then. Problem reaction into the dip where you will sign on to anything for their solution.

So I think until that release, you’re largely down and it’s going to be a pretty power economic environment during that period. But hey, it’s summer, swim, dance, love, do all the amazing things. You know, tomorrow we die.

But that’s how I feel. Bread and games, bread and games, trying to figure out what the bread and games are right now, though, trying to figure out where I should be paying attention, what I should be paying attention to, where my entertainment is supposed to come from outside of the markets because it is entertaining. I have to agree to a degree.

Francis, I can’t wait to host you in Frankfurt. It’ll be an absolute blast to have you on stage at the Deutsche Goethe-Messe May 16th and 17th. It’s a Friday, Saturday event.

I’m really looking forward to hosting. Our audience will love you. I love your directness.

Our audience will appreciate that. So really looking forward to that. We’ll put all the links down below where you can register.

It’s free to register for investors. It’s a gold conference, a gold investment conference. It’s not just a retail conference, a gold investment conference with a lot of mining companies and other smart investors at the conference.

So really looking forward to hosting you there, Francis. Thank you so much for joining us at The Market Sniper on X and, of course, TheMarketSniper.com for the website, correct? Yes, TheMarketSniper.com and our YouTube channel to get a taste of actually how you can build wealth during this period, how you can preserve it because actually defending what you make and then also securing yourself freedoms in what’s an overarching totalitarianism with a nasty communist smell to it. We are here so that you can have your best life and we’re going to live it and love it, whatever.

We were born for these times and you can just know it, be smart about it and then enjoy this amazing life we’ve been given. That’s our philosophy. Absolutely.

Phenomenal. Francis, thank you so much for joining us. Everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in here to Soar Financially.

I hope this was for you as educational as it was for me. It always is. I always learn something new.

That’s why I have these fantastic guests on. I have to be honest, I really enjoy this. I’m almost doing it just for myself.

It’s an added benefit that you’ve been subscribing and supporting this channel. I tremendously appreciate it. If you haven’t done so, leave a like, leave a comment down below and subscribe.

80% of you are not subscribed yet. Let’s change that. It helps us bring phenomenal guests like Francis on the channel.

It’s just great to reach a wider audience and just educate. We’ve been talking about this for almost two years now. This crash that we’re seeing right now is imminent.

I should have mentioned it earlier when Francis was talking about the recession. I’m starting to question sanity, A, of our guests and B, mostly myself here because we’ve been predicting this recession and downturn that we’re now witnessing for a while and we’re wondering where it was. It’s here.

Be ready, be prepared and do your thing. Thank you so much for tuning in. We’ll be back with lots more.

Take care.