Bitcoin Will Replace Fiat by 2050 (Uncut) 01-26-2025

Bitcoin Will Replace Fiat by 2050: The 300-Year Pattern Explained | Mark Moss

Kitco News special coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference is brought to you by Snowline Gold. Hey everyone, welcome back to Kitco News. I’m Jeremy Safran, here on location at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.

Thanks for joining us. My next guest is revealing a 300-year pattern, predicting that in a few decades from now, global trade will be settled not in fiat, but in Bitcoin. And he also says that the same historical pattern has happened five years in the past 300 years.

It’s a predictable pattern that we can all follow along. Now joining us now to break it all down is Mark Moss. Of course, Mark is the host of the Mark Moss Show, a seasoned macro investor with over 25 years of experience.

He’s also a seasoned Bitcoin investor. And of course, we should also mention he’s the partner at Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and the author of the Uncommunist Manifesto. Mark Moss, we know him well.

Welcome back to the show. Good to see you, man. Always a pleasure.

Always a pleasure. You just heard about it in the intro. We were talking about this 300-year pattern.

Talk to me about the blueprint that you’re laying out for it. I mean, it’s a 300-year historical pattern. And what does that mean for the next few decades? Yeah, it’s really powerful.

The way the patterns work, we were sort of talking before we started recording about longevity. And the longer something lasts, the more likely it is to last, the Lindy effect. And the way the patterns work is the more often they repeat, the more often they are to repeat as well.

So we’ve had with Bitcoin, we’ve had the four-year halving cycle. It’s happened four times. And it’s probably going to happen a fifth.

And then it probably happens a sixth. And so when you see these patterns repeat, they just typically repeat. And so we have this technological revolution pattern.

If you’re a technologist, you might know it as a K-wave cycle, contrived to wave. And about every 50 years, we see this technological revolution, which is a cluster of technologies that sort of come together as a new set of building blocks to sort of build this next wave. And it’s happened five times throughout history.

So we saw the industrial revolution, steam engines and railways. We saw electricity, steel, heavy equipment. We saw oil, oil fuels, automobiles, mass production.

1971 was microprocessors, personal computers, telecommunications, and the Internet. Just a small thing. Just a small thing.

But it’s a cluster of technologies, right, that give us these building blocks. And they don’t just represent shifts in the way that we move and operate in the world, but they drive financial markets. So the only place to really make money in the last 50 years was tech, personal computers, and Internet.

Before that, Ford, GM, GE. Before that, it was railways, oil. So we see that.

And so it’s happened five times, and now we’re sitting on the sixth one. And they happen about every 50 years, and it could be 40 to 60 years. But when you study this history of technology cycles, you’ll see that they roll out in this very dependable, predictable pattern.

And so it’s like those who don’t know history are bound to repeat it or whatever. And so it’s like it doesn’t repeat, it rhymes. And so these cycles basically repeat the same way.

And understanding that, I think a couple things. Number one, a lot of times they think it’s failed because it hasn’t met their what they think objection is of where it should be at this point in time. And they don’t understand that it takes time to do these things.

Number two, then what happens is they start trying to solve problems that aren’t going to be solved or make mistakes that are very drastic. So, for example, when we look at Bitcoin and we look at it in this cycle, a lot of people would say, well, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in the white paper that it’s a peer-to-peer electronic cash. But it’s not being used as electronic cash today.

It has it, where can I go to the store and buy a loaf of bread with it? So it’s totally failed, right, for example. And then we have drastic mistakes happening where you have like Bitcoin Jesus Roger Ver goes and does an attack on Bitcoin in 2017 to try to change it to make it faster. Not realizing that it just takes time to get there.

And now he wrote a book recently saying that Bitcoin was hijacked and stuff. And so it just shows a failure of a lack of history. And so then you make drastic mistakes like him losing most of his wealth or like people missing this opportunity that we have in front of us.

And so I think what I’ve found is it’s easier to wait when you know how long you have to wait. And so when you see this cycle playing out, it allows you to have that long-term perspective that’s required to win. Okay, so in that 300-year historical pattern, going forward, I mean, especially with the Trump presidency happening now, there’s still a lot of unknowns as to what’s going to happen, right? What does the next few decades look like if that’s where we’re at in this? Because it’s four cycles, right? You said that there’s four phases in the cycle.

So explain that and where we’re at. Yeah, so what’s interesting about that is I’m not really big into technical analysis, but I know people who are. And it’s interesting how a fundamental event like a news event could trigger a run on an asset.

But then you can look at the chart and say, well, the chart sort of predict that as well. So when you look at this four-year cycle, we can see that in the second phase, which we’re going into right now, is the steepest and the fastest part of the four phases. And now we have the Trump administration being pro-Bitcoin and with Musk being on there pro-tech.

And that just happens to coincide with the second phase that we’re going into, which is the fastest part of the adoption cycle. So it’s just very interesting how this plays out. But what happens is there’s a few ways you can look at this.

And one way that you would look at tech adoption is with an S-curve. And the way that an S-curve works is the time it takes to go from 0% to 10% adoption is the time it takes to go from 10% to 90% adoption. So if it takes 12 years to get to 10%, it takes another 12 to get to 90, which is a parabolic turn.

And so we’re just entering that phase right now. Phase one is really marked by retail adoption. It’s what’s called the frenzy.

It’s when the technology just was introduced and only the hardcore true believers, the coders, the nerds, they come out and they play with it. Phase two is what I call the frenzy. And this is where the institutions and the sovereigns come out to play.

And we’re certainly seeing that right now. And so it’s overlaying exactly the way this maps out, just like the way it has five times before. Totally.

Yeah. Some interesting conversations. I mean, obviously, we’ll get into the strategic Bitcoin reserve.

It wasn’t really talked about today in the inauguration. I don’t know if that created some volatility in the Bitcoin market. But what it did do is get a lot of people thinking what’s next.

This first 100 days, this first six months, this first year. What are your thoughts here? I mean, sovereigns, as you mentioned, are picking up Bitcoin quietly. Per the rumor.

Per the rumor. And I was recently over in Abu Dhabi speaking at the Bitcoin conference over there, which Abu Dhabi is considered the capital of capital. And so over there, you have a lot of very wealthy people.

There was a lot of sheiks that were running around there. And the Trump administration sent maybe some of their delegates. Eric Trump was there.

Paul Manafort was there. And I was privy to a lot of conversations that were going on there, let’s just say. And what I heard from a lot of these international billionaires and wealth fund managers is that they’re all seeing that the U.S. is angling for this strategic reserve.

And they’re all preparing for the counter on that. But what they’ve been doing is they’ve been sort of waiting secretly, as you said. Because remember, Trump had recently come out and threatened the BRICS.

He said, if you start your own currency or do anything to move away from the dollar, 100 percent tariffs on you. So the world is sort of a little bit scared of having the wrath of Trump. They don’t want to get caught behind, but they also don’t want to upset them at the same time.

And so the word that we’ve heard that I’ve been able to hear is that they’re all secretly buying, as you said, sort of preparing. And as soon as the U.S. sort of comes out and moves, then everybody can announce in unison. And so I think most people are probably unprepared for how fast this will go as soon as the news breaks.

Yeah, it’s been fascinating to watch. I mean, I have some stats here. Massachusetts becomes the 10th state to introduce legislation of the Bitcoin Reserve.

They join Massachusetts, joins Wyoming, New Hampshire, Alabama, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma. It’s not going anywhere, Mark. So is it the first 90 days? Is it the first year? Is it going to happen? Senator Lummis, who submitted the bill to have the Strategic Reserve put in place, she said the first 100 days.

That’s sort of been her mantra this whole time. And so I know a lot of people today were watching the inauguration and I’ve seen it all over Twitter. He didn’t announce it.

He didn’t announce it. He didn’t announce it. It’s like there’s a lot of stuff to announce today.

He did. He did pretty well. I listened to some of it.

But they said 100 days. So, like, let’s just be patient here. I think it’s going to happen.

He has a pretty good track record. He’s been president once before. So we already know the promises he’s made and what he’s able to keep up with.

And I think he has a pretty good track record. I think he’ll come through with that. Now, what will exactly be called and what would the mechanics of that be? But let’s give him 100 days.

But a lot of noise out there. I mean, we were just reporting on one of his funds. Bought $47 million worth of Bitcoin today.

$47 million worth of Ethereum. The 47th president buying $47 million worth. So something is taking place here.

How do you front run it? I mean, if you’re strategically looking at a volatile market that today I think it would hit an all-time high, came back down, the sovereigns are getting in, the retail investors. There’s people in this room that are interested in Bitcoin for the first time ever. Where’s the momentum for it? I mean, can it just keep going up? It can just keep going up.

And I think the front running it is over. You should have started buying a year ago, right? But I think one thing that the Trump coin sort of represents is maybe just a gloves-off approach. Like, let’s just go, right? And as a Bitcoin sort of maximist, I’m not super happy about that.

You’re referring to, obviously, he launched the Trump coin. The Trump coin, the meme coin. And he hit Occidental Petroleum’s market cap in 12 hours.

So he sold the 15th largest cryptocurrency in 48 hours. How do you cut through the noise, though? Well, I think what you do is you have to understand that, you know, the market, the cryptocurrency side of the market has shifted a bunch of times from, you know, competing against Bitcoin to being DeFi to being NFTs to now it’s just memes. And they’re just jokes and they’re just memes and everybody knows that.

So they’re like gambling mechanisms. So I think, number one, most people should just realize what that is. And if you want to gamble, like, by all means.

And honestly, it’s probably not a lot different than trading FX currencies or trading stocks, for that matter. You don’t, you have no fundamental belief in the underlying asset. You’re just trading it.

And so if you want to trade memes, I guess, I guess go for it. I would say, but just understand that, right? Number one. But I think more importantly, what it represents is that, you know, under the old regime, under the Biden regime, we had, you know, Elizabeth Warren and Gary Gensler at the SEC that were potentially illegally oppressive to the cryptocurrency space with Operation Chokepoint 2.0. And so very restrictive on that.

But what I think this sort of represents is a changing of the guard. Like Trump put out a meme coin. He’s the president.

So did he sell the meme coin to buy the Bitcoin? Yeah, apparently he did. Right. So but now it’s kind of like to the SEC, like, let’s go.

You’re going to come after me. I’ll show you why this was legal. You’re not going to do anything about it.

But then what it does is sets a precedence for everybody else. And I think we’re about to see an explosion of meme coins. Like maybe we should launch one.

Maybe Kitco should have one. I mean, it’s just like it’s almost going to be like a free for all, which, you know, it’s a tradeoff. There’s good and bad in there.

We’ve been talking about debt and liquidity in the market that seems to not have a ton of it. But with this much buying, there’s liquidity out there. There’s certainly liquidity out there.

There’s a couple of things I’d say about that. So, like, number one, you know, the Fed has been pretty hawkish. Right.

And they’ve been really trying to still run their quantitative tightening program. But you had Yellen at the Treasury and she has been sort of counteracting that by releasing funds out of the TGA. They manipulated the debt ceiling to end this month in January just for Trump.

There’s a lot of bombs, a lot of landmines that were laid for the Trump administration. Almost three trillion dollars in short dated treasuries and bills that have to be refinanced under the new administration. We have now Biden just going out of office a few days ago, slapped sanctions on Russian oil.

I mean, that’s a really big deal. And of course, the SPR, our reserves of petroleum are at all time lows. So it’s like, man, he depleted everything.

And there’s a lot of landmines the Trump administration has. So to your point, there’s a lot of danger, a lot of trouble. Seemingly a lot of liquidity is low at this point right now.

But yet you see fart coin or Trump coin taking off. So one, there’s money for that. But I think more importantly, and this is sort of a societal thing.

Vladimir Lenin had said to John Maynard Keynes that the best way to destroy capitalism is to debouch the currency. And through a series of inflation, you can destroy the currency until all relation is lost. And he said that the best way to get rich would be gambling and theft.

And so today, that’s kind of what we see. And so we see this younger generation and maybe not even just younger, almost anybody, where they feel like they’ve been left behind. And they just know that the traditional financial path of the 8 percent a year the S&P 5 is going to give them is not going to be enough.

And their only chance is to YOLO into fart coin. And so I think it’s really systematic, part of the system of where we’re at today. And you see this in emerging markets when they break down, where there’s high inflation as people resort to theft and gambling.

We were talking a little bit about the debasement of currency to a guess just before we had you here, and he was talking about how oil right now is being traded in many places outside of the U.S. dollar anyway. So if we have this momentum and your thesis about how, you know, things will be traded in Bitcoin here in the not too near future, where are we in this cycle? Yeah. So I am in this in this thesis cycle.

I believe it happens by 2050, which is still 25 years out. I think it happens by 2050. Now, it could happen a lot sooner.

I think there’s certainly a good argument to be made why maybe the U.S. doesn’t want to have the reserve currency anymore. So there’s most talk about why we need to protect it. And even on stage here yesterday, they talked about how maybe the U.S. would even go to war to protect that.

But there’s a lot of camps or some camps anyway, that might argue that the U.S. wants to give it up. So something known as Trippin’s Dilemma shows that it’s actually very harmful to have the world’s reserve currency, which the U.S. has had. And so maybe there’s a world where the U.S. doesn’t really care about it.

And maybe there’s a world where they realize they, who are they, but whoever happens to be in sort of in power at that time, realize that this protectionist measures that we’ve been trying to deploy are not gaining us anything. Maybe we should just compete in open field and maybe we should have more currency. Even Jerome Powell himself said that we could have more than one reserve currency.

And so I think we’re seeing this and Powell saying it. I think Trump was seeing it. And I think there’s a new regime coming into play.

Yeah. I mean, Scott Besson’s come in and said, OK, we can’t lose our fiat. It has to be the U.S. reserve currency.

And I think a lot of people argue it’s not going to necessarily happen overnight. But, you know, we’re already seeing BRICS nations come to fruition. I think everyone’s on pause waiting what’s going to happen over the next six months here.

Am I correct? Yeah, I think so. I think this first quarter is really where I’m looking at danger right now, because, as I said, there’s all these landmines that the Trump administration has to get over. So I think this is going to be dangerous.

I think at some point the liquidity is going to come on and then the rest of the market will go up. So I’m bullish on 2025 for sure. But what I would say back to sort of this reserve currency of the world, and really it’s not reserve currency.

It’s like the reserve storage, the reserve asset of the world. But I think, like, there’s lots of places that people store their wealth. And today what we’re seeing is really this global race to commodities, if you will.

China was running around. They bought up half the lithium mines in the world. Just, I think it was the last week, the U.S. Department of Defense went and bought tungsten mines.

And so what you’re seeing is nations are buying up resources in the ground, commodities, if you will. So they’d say, I would rather have, the U.S. said, I would rather have tungsten in the ground than U.S. treasuries. China says, I would rather have lithium in the ground than treasuries.

And so I think there’s that race. And so the reason why I bring that up is that we’re already seeing less countries recycling their reserves into U.S. dollars or U.S. treasuries. Some of them are buying gold, more gold than any time in history.

But some are also buying lithium or other commodities in the ground as well. And I think that is going to continue that diversification of how we store or reserve our wealth. And I think Bitcoin just is one more piece of that equation.

And a lot of times when people say, oh, well, they’re going to, you know, they, the governments will make Bitcoin illegal. I’m like, the governments allow us to store our wealth in art and collectibles and fine art and baseball cards and stocks and equities and bonds. And like Bitcoin is just one of a dozen places we store our wealth.

They’re going to get rid of every store of wealth. Like, of course they won’t. Right.

And so I think this is changing. Okay. Let’s talk about your macro outlook.

Obviously, we’re at the VRIC show, the Resource Investment Conference. You just talked about critical minerals. A lot of people arguing that this will be a big year for the commodity space.

I remember last year being at the show talking about, you know, all time highs in gold. It almost feels like we set this up. We’re getting closer.

So what’s to come here? I mean, we don’t have a crystal ball. I know I have a note here of M2 money supplies now back to expanding 3.7 percent, reversing its deepest contraction since 1960. I mean, Mark, what’s your take? What’s your macro outlook? Well, I think, one, as I said, I’m bullish on commodities.

And the reason why is we can talk about the president, but really the president doesn’t really matter that much. So if you look back all the way, I looked, I did a video on this from Clinton all the way forward. I think it was within three years and three months of every president, regardless, Republican, Democrat, didn’t matter.

The market was up 50 percent. Didn’t matter. So I think what matters is the deficit spending, the government spending, the amount of debt expansion and monetary expansion.

So that’s going to continue, if not only accelerate. As a matter of fact, the deficit’s up 40 percent in the last quarter. Right.

So like the deficit spending gets worse and worse and worse. And then there’s this potential recession floating out there. Well, recession only means deficit spending goes up even more.

So like the president matters a little bit, but it’s not the biggest thing. What matters to me, the big trends that I’m looking at is this technology cycle, which we’ve already discussed, and then the world racing to commodities, as we’ve talked about. So I think those are the two big trends.

And I think part of that commodity trend is being driven by back to the DOD, Department of Defense. On Trump’s inauguration today, he said, we will have the strongest military in the history of the world. That’s what he said.

So he’s recommitting to that as if that wasn’t already a commitment. And so what does that mean? So the U.S. military is now seeing that a lot of these resources are strategic. And so, for example, China has been giving loans to other countries in exchange for strategic resources.

And now the DOD is actually forcing the U.S.’s hand into that. And so I think that’s very bullish for commodities, specifically North American and Canadian commodities. Greenland? Greenland.

Greenland. No, but seriously, though, right? So like if we think about 30 percent of U.S. homes are powered by nuclear energy. Where does the uranium come for that? From Russia.

Right. And so part of that strategic is to get that uranium from North American countries, whether that be from the U.S. or from Canada, for example. Right.

So I’m super bullish on that. I think commodities a little bit. I mean, if we’re thinking about miners, we’re at a mining resource show.

You know, in other countries that may have some geopolitical instability, South America, we’ve seen lots of mines being taken over. So I’m a little bit worried about that. But I am bullish on North American and Canadian resource mining for sure.

You’ve been walking around this show. I see all these people following you around. You’ve got the following.

What’s the biggest takeaway message you’ve gotten from talking to investors? Because at the same time, you know, you understand gold and commodities. You’re blending those two people together, the gold bugs, the newer generation or whatever. What’s that message been like this year? Yeah, I think, you know, I approach it.

I was a gold bug. I was a gold bug. And then I just found out I was a sound money advocate.

And so I think if you approach it from a sound money advocate, there’s common ground. But what I’ve seen is a few of the old dogs, they just don’t want to admit anything about Bitcoin or crypto. And you can hear, by the way, they conflate Bitcoin and crypto.

Lynn Alden said that those who conflate Bitcoin and crypto show they know neither. And so, right, they don’t really understand what they’re talking about. One of my friends I see here every year, she’s a gold dealer.

And I called her up as a friend. I said, hey, let me just talk to you as a friend. I don’t want to convince you on Bitcoin, but I need to correct some things.

You say because it sounds ignorant when you say them. Right. And so there’s this misunderstanding.

But I’d say while there’s a few people like that, the majority of the conversations I have is that most of these hard money gold people are into it. And the reason why they’re into it is because most people it’s hard for most people to get Bitcoin because they don’t even understand money. But the gold people already do.

And so I think that crowd gets it pretty easy. And I was telling you earlier last night, I sat down with two gold dealers, not miners, but actually people that sell retail gold. And one of them specifically is super hot and wants to start offering Bitcoin to their clients.

And so, I mean, this is a shift of the, you know, a shift in the narrative. It’s a change of the guard, whatever. It brings down money back.

Yeah. No, we see it. I mean, Robinhood just started carrying the Trump coin on its platform, which I’m sure would create some more liquidity.

I saw, you know, Costco started selling gold about a year ago. And then I think I just saw this week that now Costco has Bitcoin ATMs in all the Costco’s. No kidding.

I didn’t see that. I mean, I have to look for it. I mean, Costco, what a company that one’s been on the revenue.

I want to talk to you about Matador, too, because I saw you, what, New Orleans? I saw you a while ago. We were on the air. We had you on this show.

I think we were remote. And you were just getting involved with Matador. We were talking about Michael Stahler’s strategy with MicroStrategy and what he’s been able to do there.

It’s impressive. Kind of similar here. Yeah.

Yeah. So we have a company called Matador and it’s launched on the Toronto TSXV, the Venture Exchange. And basically trying to run a matter or a MicroStrategy play.

There’s another company in Japan called MetaPlanet that’s recently deployed that went from about eight million to a billion in about 10 months. They’re like a sister company of ours. But we think we can bring a unique product to the market through a public vehicle.

And so part of this 50 year cycle going from phase one to where I said now we’re phase two, phase one, as I said, was retail. Phase two is really institutions. Right.

So what you have in phase two is you have real companies, institutional allocators looking for real companies that are like publicly traded. So like in the first phase, it was like, let’s just go into these crypto projects. Now they want publicly traded companies.

And there’s only a handful of Bitcoin companies that are publicly traded. About about a dozen of them or so. And so we think that we have this really unique ability to bring a Bitcoin publicly traded company, a vehicle to market and really give these institutional allocators a way to play this space through that public vehicle.

Yeah. And you’re just buying Bitcoin. Yeah, we’re buying Bitcoin.

We just announced that we have we have quite a treasury right now. We just announced about a five million dollar buy and we’re going to continue to announce those. We launched right when Bitcoin hit that dip.

So it hurt a little bit. But we’re coming up from that and it’s looking really strong. And I think over the next couple of months, this first hundred days is going to be amazing.

I guess it’s worth mentioning to U.S. investors, too, you’re buying it in the Canadian dollar. So it’s almost half. Yeah, I think that’s super important to understand.

It is the Canadian market and it is priced in Canadian dollars. And so it’s on bargain. And if, depending on what happens with the Trump administration, and I know he said tariffs, he sort of walked that back a little bit.

But, you know, there’s a lot to figure out between the U.S. and Canada right now. And any weakness that that may happen to cause Canada, especially in the currency, just makes investing in the Toronto Stock Exchange, specifically in the tech sector, a company like Matterhorn, even more attractive. Yeah, no kidding.

Well said. All right. Mark Moss, thanks, man.

Appreciate your time. I’m Jeremy Sappin. For all of us here at Kitco News, we are at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.

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