Bear Market In ‘Striking Distance’ (Uncut) 03-30-2025

Few Weeks Away From Financial Crisis; Bear Market In ‘Striking Distance’ | Chris Vermeulen

So this is going to be a big bounce after this that could take several months to unfold and then after that as the market Rolls over and sells off. We could actually start the financial crisis and I’ve been waiting for this for a long time Finally the magnificent seven all the big powerhouses stocks and pockets of stocks a bearish Price action that points to much lower pricing and that is going to pull the Nasdaq the SP 500 down Great panic Another volatile day for the markets the Dow is down 700 points The bond market is rallying gold is rallying crude oil is down risk assets are selling off on the fears of heightened Geopolitical tensions on the fears of heightened trade war tensions on the fears of recession Coming the Atlanta Fed GDP now tracker is now predicting a negative 2.8 percent contraction for the next quarter How should investors and traders be positioned right now in these turbulent times Christopher Mullen joins us once more He is a technical where the chief market strategist rather at the technical traders calm Welcome back to the show Chris always good to see you last time you were on the show By the way, a couple weeks ago. You can check out Chris’s last interview with me.

The markets had another really bad day This is a complete quinces. I’m not calling Chris every time the markets are falling. It’s just there’s been a lot of volatility That’s been the theme for the last six weeks.

Welcome back to the show Chris Always a pleasure David. Yeah, what’s going on today again? Yeah, let’s just jump right into it What’s happening right now with the markets? Let’s flip open a chart for the audience Chris Like I said the Dow’s down 700 points. You told me offline.

We are now almost in bear market territory. I Personally think we’ve already been in a bear market, but I’ll let you the expert decide what constitutes a bear market and what doesn’t yeah, well, I mean we’re I wouldn’t say we’re in a bear market just yet simply because the tech is the kind of Definition that everyone kind of goes by for a bear market is we need the markets to pull back 20% If we take a look at the SP 500, we have really only pulled back Roughly 10% at the low and really we’re only down about eight and a half or so percent as of you and I recording this So today’s a big down day in the markets But I think we are in striking distance in the next more or less week or two To actually enter a bear market territory And if we take a look at the SP 500 using technical analysis using a Fibonacci extension Which tells us based on the current price action the past price action where price should go That is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 5183 on the SP 500 Which is a pretty significant drop that’ll be down 15% from the top and really from whoops where we are now That’s looking about another seven and a half percent over the next two to one to two weeks I think the Nasdaq has got a potential to drop about almost 11% in the next week or two It has a very similar chart pattern I will look at the QQQ for example And this chart is it has the same type of bear flag energy or sorry technology stocks have definitely underperformed on this bounce they have had really a two-day bounce and Nowhere near the breakdown zone or the moving average did it get to like the SP 500 and so this is telling us the magnificent seven are Doing a lot of heavy lifting or a lot of pulling to the downside And so the Nasdaq I think in the next week or two will be down about 22% And that’s about 10% lower 11% down from where we are right now This is a very bearish price action on the chart and the magnificent seven really I think is going to do most of the the dirty work and pull the markets down over the next week or two Why 22% is there a technical significance to that? I mean, why why can’t you make the argument that it’s already come down enough and it’s time for a rebound? Well, it’s it’s it’s simply based on Fibonacci extension So Fibonacci if anybody goes and looks into it the Fibonacci Sequence is in everything in the universe and that happens in nature And and so the way I came to that target is using a Fibonacci sequence Which is telling us based on this big drop to the downside and the strength of the bounce it tells us moving forward how much downside there should be for that next move and You know to break it down to even a more basic level There’s chart patterns and that’s what I initially started learning in the markets which when you have a bear flag pattern, which means you have a Bear flag, which means you have a flagpole to the downside and a flag always flags in the opposite direction of its flagpole So if the trend was down the flag is going to flag up a bit that is known as the halfway point So whatever this move is the second half of that move is going to be the same as this first move To the downside percentage wise and so doesn’t matter how you look at it. Just chart pattern or Fibonacci It comes to the same conclusion and that’s why we come to that and not only that but Fibonacci Always seems to sequence with past price levels on the chart And if you look back on the chart this there’s a 22% pullback Coincides pretty close to the lows.

We saw back here in August of last year It also coincides with the significant low in April May last year We go back even further in time You can see it was also a support level that it acted as so this is going to be a very critical level not only is it going to hit a bunch of Measured moves to the downside, but it’s going to find support and then we’re gonna have a big bounce that could last several months I don’t think the markets going to new highs. I do think the market top is actually put in now So this is going to be a big bounce after this that could take several months to unfold and then after that as the market Rolls over and sells off. We could actually start the financial crisis and I’ve been waiting for this for a long time Finally the magnificent seven all the big powerhouses Stocks and in pockets of stocks have bearish Price action that points to much lower pricing and that is going to pull the Nasdaq the SP 500 down and create panic across Investors, I’m gonna come back to this financial crisis that you just referenced Chris but so can I can I make the statement that if you’re a Swing trader or a more short-term trader you can position yourself for a bounce now But if you’re a buy and hold investor It’s probably time to take some things off the table because what comes after this bounce may be a financial crisis Can I make that argument? Yeah, so just to clarify because it’s easy for people to get confused on the time frame I believe the market is going to pull back the Nasdaq at least another about 10% from where it is Once it finds support around this area.

I think we could go into a multi-month bounce back up in here And and so I think if you’re a short-term trader if you’re very aggressive and you know what you’re doing I think there’s a play to take advantage of falling prices Or at least just stand aside and then wait for this bounce to move up an investor I think getting out of this at this point is a fairly good opportunity I think also eventually if we get a big bounce That’ll be an opportunity for an investor to get out because after this I think is when we start to to go into the much bigger landslide where the market starts that 35 to 50 percent plus correction that a lot of people are have been kind of expecting to happen at some point. So Short-term traders, I think should be either in cash or position for kind of falling pricing as an aggressive trader But long-term investors as you said You might want to be thinking about trimming positions or getting ready to get out of this market before we continue with the video Let me tell you about a very serious problem. That’s affecting a lot of people data breaches now every day data breaches of all kinds happen Whether it’s major data breaches or data broker selling your information your privacy details are at risk Your information like your personal phone number address birthday.

That’s all easy to find and easier to Release and leak than you think that’s why I use today’s sponsor deletes me They remove your personal information from hundreds of data broke websites making it harder for scammers Telemarketers and even strangers to access your private data It’s simple effective and gives me a peace of mind All you have to do is submit your personal details and within a week you’ll get a privacy report Showing where your data was found and removed Delete me keeps working all year round to make sure your information stays off of these websites Go to join delete me comm slash David Lynn and use promo code David Lynn at checkout or scan the QR code on the screen here to get 20% off and protect your privacy today I’m winning the CNBC article by the way about consumer sentiment. It says consumer sentiment is worsening. Let me just share my screen so Viewers can follow along here consumer sentiment worsens as inflation fears grow the University of Michigan survey shows the University of Michigan publishes their Regular updates to their consumer sentiment index the final version of the university’s closely watched survey of consumers showed a reading of 57 For the month down eleven point nine percent from February.

That’s a lot and twenty eight point two percent from a year ago Economists surveyed by Dow Jones have been expecting a fifty nine point or fifty seven point nine reading which was the mid month level So worse than the expectation from the street the deterioration of consumer sentiment was even worse than anticipated intensified by inflation fears Inflation fears from I’m guessing terrorists in the trade wars, but are you hearing any other rumors about inflation fears from your end? Yeah, I think it all has to it’s all based around I think tariffs at this point I think I think businesses are actually starting to slow in general, but the inflation is just gonna stack on a bunch of like instant There’s two camps a lot of people I’ve heard I’ve people have said Chris tariffs aren’t gonna increase inflation and they have this whole story I don’t fully get it All I know is if it costs more to bring stuff in it’s probably going to jack up the price and so to me the inflation concerns are mostly around tariffs All right. Let’s let’s just sum up what we’ve talked about so far The markets have not been having a good start to the year in 2025 What are you personally doing right now? Just you know in light of the fact that the markets have already seen a big downturn already Perhaps worse is on the way later on but perhaps it’s oversold for now. What are you doing? Are you in cash? Are you not? Yeah So right now based on different strategies our long-term investment strategy if we take a look at our long-term Strategy here.

We are still in a bull market phase. So we had a buy signal way back in February of 2023 the markets have had a beautiful rally. This is a simple understand when you’re in a bull market or bear market So the simple bull market trend, we’re still up about 37 percent We’re still long the market But this strategy is very close to turning over and starting a bear market phase a lot like what we saw back in 2000 and 22 We saw we got a bear market phase and then the market went in and corrected for about a year So there’s a time to be long stocks and not so as a long-term investor You can still be long Just expect that price might go down a bit more and this trend might come to an end over the next month or so So investors can still be long but ready to pull the trigger to protect the capital from precipitous waterfall short-term traders when we look at the short-term chart This is our shorter-term strategy.

We got out of the market a little while ago Simply everything was saying Okay The market had a beautiful run to the upside and then it started to stall out we got into another trade and the market stalled Out again and the strategy says get out. So a short-term trader should be out. You should be in cash waiting for a new setup to either get long on the next bounce or Wait for a bear market to start at which point we trade an inverse ETF Which will rise in value as the market falls so short-term traders Really sideline at this moment based on how I trade long-term investors can still be long But getting ready didn’t have a plan to move to cash To protect their their lifestyle.

Are you gonna rotate to bonds bonds been having a good day. It’s been having a good month Can we take a look at the TLT chart? Sure. Yeah When you look at bonds just going back a couple years like this is a pretty ugly chart.

It’s sideways It’s all over the place. In fact, it has a downward bias in general still But bonds are starting to come to life So since the kovat spike bonds have gone from a topping phase to a bearish phase And now I believe bonds are trying to carve out a bottom they’re in a stage one bottom right now and after a stage one comes a stage two, which is a a Bull market move and I think bonds have got this short little the small bull flag pattern That actually is pointing to higher pricing and a 10-year note is showing that it has the inverse pattern to this it looks like yields are going to actually move down which means bonds are going to go up and just so people can get a visual of How this market moves if we take a look at you see this we’ll pull up here Here we go, so just so people can grasp these these stages so You know bonds were in a stage they topped they had a stage three blow-off phase They went through a stage four and now they’re going sideways in a stage one and so we just have to let this stage mature and Then it’s going to enter a stage two which everyone loves is a bull market and that’s what we’re waiting for And I think this year bonds will become an opportunity They’ve probably already bottomed. I know people have been piling in and moving in I don’t move into something until it’s clearly in an uptrend because bonds could still trade sideways for all we know another year or so And that’s a lot of time to just kind of sit back and and not have your money really doing a whole lot for you so Bonds are going to become a very good trade.

I think later this year in the next couple months It could become an opportunity actually so we’re getting close, but they’re not quite there just yet What are you bullish on right now then right now? I’m still bullish on gold I think gold has had the majority of its upside move I think we could see gold potentially the next upside target for gold is about 3,275 It hit my initial 2750 to 2800 we went to a multi-month pause Then we ended up hitting the 30 50 and 30 60 level I think you and I actually talked about in our last interview I’m saying that’s the next upside target and it’s had that pullback and that was kind of the 618 That was a little small target. The next target is about 3,000 20 or 3,275 so we still have some some more potential for for gold to rally another You know four or five percent to the upside up to this level When I look at the big picture of gold though, I as much as it’s in a strong uptrend I do feel like it is kind of in this last blow-off phase So what happens is we hit this and you and I’ve touched on this many times the big super cycle in gold Last time from the high in 2011 if we use Fibonacci extensions We we’ve seen this 100% measured move and this is really important this means the the move up and the correction tells us where the next two targets are and that was the 618 which we paused for a few years and then we came up and we hit this hundred percent measured move there now Zooming forward to the the more recent cycle from the fifth 2015 lows and these highs we come out to almost the same price target so What gold has hit in the last few months is the like 20 year cycle and projection? And now everything right now is icing on the cake and what happens is we get you know This final surge some of the biggest moves happen in an asset just before it tops and just before bottoms We saw this just before the top happened in gold back in 2011 We saw the final surge just before 2008 financial crisis where it hits targets But then it blows on past and that is exactly what we’re seeing right now. It’s hit its targets and it’s blowing on past I do think when the market goes into a stage four We’re going to see gold come back down to the twenty five hundred maybe even twenty two hundred and incorrect That’s what we see happen during stage four.

They’re not you know, the ultimate play They do not go up when the markets are collapsing. We tend to see gold silver in miners pull back fairly significantly and So I’m not a big fan of buying gold right here I do think you can pick it up at a better price over the next 12 months probably and And be closer to it starting that next rally up to twenty or fifty five hundred and seventy five hundred And there’s a bunch of big targets up there that I think gold will hit over the next ten years I think for some of the longer term Investors watching the show Chris They’re listening to us talk about this financial crisis in a looming bear market and they’re probably wondering how to protect their wealth So cash is one way you mentioned gold is expensive at current levels. So the bigger question is what do we do now? Yeah, I mean I the big thing as a long-term investor who’s really looking to protect their their capital their life savings protect their lifestyle From the next major financial reset.

I think there’s a couple ways you can play it One of them is to step aside. There’s nothing wrong with Not being in the market. Sometimes cash is one of the best and most powerful plays I mean we’re in cash right now with with one of our strategies.

Sometimes there just isn’t a good high probability trade Yes, there’s opportunity, but it’s not about trying to make money all the time sometimes you have to take a backseat and let the markets work out the jitters and some of the noise and Just be happy with the level of wealth you have and Knowing you’re not going to lose it And I think this is one of the reasons why gold does very well is simply if you do move to cash You probably don’t want to keep it all in a bank given the US markets The US banking system is actually I think extremely brittle and weak, you know There’s be nothing more frustrating than you Finally getting out on a market top putting all your money in a bank and being like I’m safe And then the bank goes bankrupt and you lose everything. That is why gold does so Well, people do not trust the financial system and people are liquidating. I look at Buffett.

He is fully loaded He’s got so much cash. It’s it’s crazy people move physical gold. It’s out of the financial system So cash is a position.

Maybe not keep it in a bank You can take a strategy like I do and we can benefit from falling pricing So there’s always going to be an asset that goes up could be the US dollar Index, it might go up could be bonds And it could be an inverse ETF as the market falls in a bear market Month on average month after month you can take advantage of it And if the market falls 5 or 10 percent you can play an ETF that will go up 5 or 10 percent or play a leverage Play so there’s a few different ways to play it passive which is like cash out sit on the sidelines safely Let the dust settle then reinvest all your money at a new bull market at the start of one or Take advantage of falling pricing and then invest all that new even more wealth into the markets At the start of a new bull market as well. How about real estate? when I look at housing as some way to park their wealth and Avoid any volatility short term and medium term. Do you agree with that? I think housing is going to go through a pretty big reset based on a bunch of new data in the States We have the biggest inventory of new home sales in southern United States ever it broke the 2006 peak so there is a huge flood of new homes Add to that the whole scenario with what’s going on with Canadians and tariffs and now Canadians are very upset and angry a lot of them are selling they’re gonna they’re planning to sell their homes When they move back we have this huge influxes They’re called snowbirds like a third of Canada pretty much moves to Florida for Christmas or and for the winter season get away from the cold and They all own homes and apartments and what’s going on is people are very upset and I think come this spring when everybody comes back in April We’re gonna see a lot of homes come up for sale on top of the record high homes for sale already So I think real estate is gonna get hit and I think Florida real estate is gonna get absolutely Slaughtered so in general though the housing market.

I think is gonna weaken We’re gonna see a lot of selling there’s been really no real demand There’s a million millions of homes for sale But things aren’t selling and people have to lower the price a lot more than they think to actually get a sale to go through And so the bottoms about to fall out. I don’t think it’s a safe play. I think Would you be selling your home right now if let’s say you’re a homeowner and you had extra inventory you want to offload Yeah, I think that’s For sure.

I think that’s a very good play I think for some if they have extra properties and they’re they’re deep in the money and You know You got to expect it I think rents eventually will fall and it means if you’re really close to the not being a cash flow positive property You know getting out of it. You might be able to buy a better property down the road In fact, I’m selling one of my real estate properties right now. Simply.

I’ve milked most of the upside potential I’ve given it the most value it can get and I would much rather move aside let chaos hit and I’ll have a new opportunity when There’s gonna be all kinds of opportunities to pick the next investment could be a business could be property Who knows could be stocks could be something else, but I’m liquidating Real estate because I believe there’s gonna be a better fresher investment that has a lot more upside potential than what I’m in right now If you were to step back as somebody who is not currently in the markets I know once you’ve dipped your toes in capital markets here, you know emotionally invested We can talk about how to deal with that later. But if you’re just observing at what point would you say to yourself? Okay, it’s not a bad time to get into equities. Okay, maybe I can start buying some real estate Okay, maybe I can pick up some risk assets here and there.

Yeah. Well, I I think If you’re new to this is a problem if you’re new to investing and new to real estate Unfortunately, you don’t really know no better like somebody who’s been around the block and has owned properties My my parents were big into real estate with my dad had 1600 doors at one point So I’ve grown up living and breathing real estate you you just get a feeling when Prices usually have gone down dramatically and there’s like this huge. It’s just opportunities everywhere You’re like like look at that building.

Look at this building and when you feel like there’s just opportunity everywhere That’s usually when I think you start to be like, okay I’m gonna start looking and seeing what numbers work and and how these go I mean that that’s something I cover in the newsletter that I do. I talk about real estate. I talk about gold I talk about how we how I manage all my capital my investments and You really I think have to put in let let the market reset and you need to see a lot of people Panicking when people around you are losing their shirts, unfortunately There’s all kinds of opportunity around and prices keep falling That’s when you start to become a little more aware like, you know what? There’s got to be some opportunities coming up and you got to look for those gems and the key I think is to not jump too soon I know people who are who are actually piling into the the Florida real estate space and I believe it’s actually gonna have one of the biggest drops and they think the market is putting in a bottom.

So It’s it’s you don’t want to jump too soon because I think there’s a long way to go I think for real estate, I think you really need to wait Potentially a year or longer real estate is pretty slow. It takes a while for inventory to pan out and to unfold I mean if you’re gonna get into real estate focus on somebody who understands real estate and And wait kind of for the go-ahead like most of the downside has been wiped out But I mean, I I’ve done a lot of different talks With various real estate people experts and they think the market is bottoming and they think it’s actually gonna double from here And and so you got to be aware like who is an expert like everybody’s an expert online these days They all say they’re professionals, but the reality is like man. Most people don’t know anything It’s scary like you charge everybody’s charging premiums for expert advice and you listen to you’re like that is not expert advice So I remember during 2020 right after kovat there was a huge surge in real estate prices across Canada most parts of the US as well For quite a few reasons one the Fed injected liquidity and all assets went up, right? It lifted all tight.

It was the tide that lifted all boats. It wasn’t just real estate But also people weren’t building Inventory stopped growing during that time because construction halted, right? Were you looking back at that era? Are you seeing any similarities between then and now or is it completely different? Well, I think the similarity kind of right now from maybe maybe not kovat but I think the last major housing top like this is one of the things that is my big warning is actually like the the amount of building permits for Multifamily and so what happens is we’ve gone through this wave of single-family homes There’s not a whole there really isn’t a whole lot of upside potential with them If you were to build one, you’ll be lucky if you get your money back I don’t think there’s a lot of upside right now. Everything’s expensive to build and there’s no demand There’s a million like tons too many homes for sale but what we’re seeing right now is this big surge in multifamily and that’s I like multifamily buildings and You get economies of scale you one piece of property that you can put like, you know 20 or 50 or 100 units on it they all share the same roof and a lot of them share common walls and So there is a way to squeeze out a little bit of money and we saw this just before the housing bubble back in 2006 2008 as the market was maturing we saw the surge of everybody Savvy investors saying okay The only way to actually continue to make money in real estate is to go multifamily because we actually get The margins are much better and we’re seeing that right now.

We’ve seen this big surge in multifamily permits And now we’re starting to see all these buildings, you know actually being built and come on to the market Which is why we’re seeing this flood of new homes and condos everywhere apartments So that to me is the warning sign going back to kovat. It felt like kind of chaos I don’t really relate anything back to kovat. I feel like that was a news-driven full-on crazy wild event I don’t think it was like the actual cycle of real estate in the economy playing out It was more like, you know, you everybody got startled and it shook everything up and it was kind of a hiccup So I still kind of fall back to the 2006 2008 real estate space in the markets from that perspective Okay, Chris, let’s turn back to the charts now.

We talked about gold stocks bonds Can we pull up a crude oil chart, please and take a look at what’s going on right now? I I have on my screen crude oil is down to below $70 a barrel probably good news for people at the pump But does it signal anything broader about the economy to you? Yeah, I oil has a pretty bearish chart pattern There’s a very critical line in the sand around the $65 per barrel area, which I believe it’s going to break at some point Based on the price action. We’ve had a sharp sell-off over the past couple of years. It’s been trading sideways this is known as a pennant or a kind of a Bearish pattern so price drops and then it kind of coils and it takes a breather And so this is very similar to a bull flag chart pattern and it’s a halfway point So whatever move it moved down percentage wise will be the same move that it has coming out of this So I believe we’re gonna see oil break down This is not going to be good for Canadians and the loony the currency We follow the oil price very closely But I think we’re gonna see oil break down and if oil breaks down it probably means also it’s leading that hey We’re probably going into a recession.

We’re gonna see sales of businesses and travel and all that stuff tighten right up products and So I’m not a big fan of this. I’m very bearish on oil I think energy stocks are going to have one of the biggest haircuts and catch a lot of people off surprise there’s big divergence oil has been going down for the last couple of years energy stocks been going up and when oil breaks down and Then add to that potentially a piece of bad economic news, I think energy stocks are going to be sold off in a huge way And it’s gonna it’s gonna hit the market pretty hard, but oil you got to be expecting I think lower prices over the next year or two Chris. Let’s finish off on Bitcoin We had talked about I think a hundred twelve thousand dollars was the top It got to that point at some point and now I like to kind of revisit this Action with you to see if you have a new top or a new bottom for us Sure.

Yeah, if we take a look at Bitcoin, I think that the next downside pattern here so that there was a a Couple plays here, but overall Bitcoin kind of put in this double top formation We got this double top and then it ended up breaking down through this topping pattern and it had a drop it had bear flag It’s it’s had another drop and another bear flag Based on this chart pattern. I was just talking with them some Traders earlier the next level is about seventy two thousand and You know, that’s a pretty good haircut from where we are And if Bitcoin is it falls down to this level about 15% it probably means the stock market the Nasdaq is selling down as well I would say they’re they’re very close in terms of if one’s going down the other one’s going down It’s very similar very Similar group of traders and investors people all want the magnificent seven. They all want Bitcoin They want what’s in the news and so they’re tied together from that regard and that was always my big concern It was Bitcoin was its own thing and then they brought Bitcoin into the futures market and it got woven in with the stock market and the Bias and all the stuff that goes with it And so now it starts to move kind of with the stock market Which is unfortunate because I really liked it when it was its own thing As soon as you tie it into the stock market It starts to have that bias woven into it because it’s the same group of people either they’re bullish or they’re bearish They’re buying or they’re selling and it might not move exactly the same as the stock market But when the stock market’s going down Bitcoin’s gonna get pulled down with it because it’s the same group of money moving either in and out of the asset So I think there’s about 15% downside in Bitcoin 15% down and in the magnificent seven stocks in general And so they’re kind of the same play, thanks Chris good update very important update today we’ll get this message out and What else can people learn? From you when they follow your work Yeah, well, they can if they want they can go to my website.

I have two books asset revesting, which is the strategy I showed Today, which is more or less. So understand if we’re in a bull market or bear market understand if the trend is up or down That is the most important is to make sure you’re holding assets going up And this is at my website the technical traders comm or they can go to my youtube channel the technical traders Also, if you like the technical side you like to read charts and and trade momentum signals and things like that Technical trading mastery is available at Amazon or on my website And more or less what I do with this. This is a trading newsletter as well my website.

I just managed my own portfolio I share a morning video every day before the market opens of what’s going on and how I’m managing positions And I share every trade that I do With traders and I cover kind of just like what you and I did but even in much more granular detail about where the markets are going today tomorrow how it affects our positions and Really? I ride the coattails of the markets and subscribers ride the coattails of what I do in my portfolio. Thanks very much Chris We’ll put the link down below. So make sure to follow Chris in the technical traders comm There we’ll speak again soon a couple weeks more volatility to unpack for sure Thanks, David.

Always a pleasure. Take care. Thank you for watching.

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