Huge Rally Incoming Before Crash (Uncut) 02-15-2025

Huge Rally Incoming Before Crash: Expect Volatility, ‘Chaos’ | Chris Vermeulen

Christopher Mullen is back. He’s the chief market strategist at the technicaltraders.com. It’s been a couple of weeks, Chris, since you were back on the show. The markets, stock markets in particular, have been trading range-bound.

Gold is almost at $3,000. We’ll talk about gold, stocks, Bitcoin, bonds. Natural gas is an interesting one.

The dollar, we have to talk about. A lot of volatility in the DXY in recent weeks because of tariff news, so lots to discuss today. Chris is now signaling we’re talking about a potential move upwards in the market, so we’ll talk about that.

Welcome back to the show, Chris. Hey, thanks. Always a pleasure, David.

Yeah, exciting stuff happening in the markets here. You were talking to me about a market move the last time you were on the show, which was in person in Vancouver. Check out that interview link down below.

That was January 22nd when we aired that particular video. The comments were angry at you, Chris, because they were like, hey, he was bearish the last time you were on, and now he’s bullish. He just flip-flopped in a matter of two weeks.

What’s going on? Can you just address that? Have you shifted your stance? Have the markets moved in such a way that you’ve changed your outlook? Maybe it’s just a difference in timing and time horizon. Can you just address that? Yeah, 100%. It really is people’s perspective and what they listen to, what they absorb.

So we have been long in the markets for quite a while. A long-term trend is bullish. My bearish outtake, as everybody knows, or my long-term outtake is bearish.

I mean, I feel like this market this year, sooner than later, in the next month or two, I believe the markets are gonna put in a major market top. So I am bearish, but we still ride the trend higher. We have small, like our long-term investing, we haven’t got in in 2023.

We continue to be long here. Our shorter-term strategy, we do. We get in and out, depending if the market is showing signs of a short-term uptrend or downtrend.

But we are overall long in the markets. And so I think the big thing, people hear me negative, and they think that means I’m position negative. But as you know, I’m negative on the markets, but we’re actually long.

We have to ride the trend, follow the trend. So I think it’s important for people to understand what timeframes we’re looking at. Right now, we’re long in the markets, both long-term and short-term.

I think maybe last time you and I talked, a couple of times before that, we were long, the long-term investment strategy, but we are back in cash on our short-term strategy. So that’s where people, I think, get things confused. But yeah, the markets here definitely look like they want to go higher.

And we have to follow that trend and continue to ride it up. And when we look at the charts of like the SP500 and a whole bunch of different analysis on it, I mean, we do have a very, really nice chart pattern on the SP500. We’ve got a few different patterns, depending on what you wanna call it.

This could be a rounding formation. This could be seen as a bull flag pattern. It could also be seen as a cup and handle pattern.

I was talking to subscribers this morning, because everybody’s like, no, it’s this type of pattern, it’s that type of pattern. I’m like, it doesn’t really matter. It’s just, is it a bullish or bearish pattern? Throw whatever label you want on it.

But right now, it looks like the market is starting to break and run to the upside. The QQQ or the NASDAQ 100 definitely has an even more bullish bias. It’s had more of a beautiful rounding formation.

It’s starting to take the lead and move higher here. And it is pointing to higher pricing. And both our long-term and short-term analysis on the SP500, for example, if we look at our 30-minute chart, this shows us extreme oversold conditions.

As you know, we’ve had like bad Mondays. We’ve had like, I think this was the AI Monday, a huge gap down. We had a tariff Monday.

I can’t remember which one was which. But we get into these oversold conditions where everybody panics. And we dive into these oversold cycle lows, these emotional trades, which we had one again this week.

And when the market, when everybody gets spooked and we have these big moves, we get these lime green areas. And then the market naturally wants to go higher against those trends. And we’ve seen that over and over.

And it’s funny because the market keeps getting hit with bad news, but it’s super resilient. It just keeps clawing its way back. It gets hit again.

It gets back up. It’s like a boxer in a ring, doesn’t want to give up. And that is the sign that, you know, we’re climbing this wall of worry, but the market just continues to want to climb its way higher.

And, you know, the SPY, the NASDAQ, they’re very strong chart patterns pointing to the much higher pricing. The SPY daily chart really shows how it gets hit and then comes back. So I like this cycle analysis, momentum, intermarket analysis, what other assets are doing are showing money wants to flow back into the stock market here.

And we’ve got to ride it up. There’s potential for a half decent move. So we will talk about tariff Monday in just a bit.

That was February 3rd, by the way, a lot of volatility in the bond markets as well and the DXY on that day. We’ll come back to that. But just to go back to where it started with.

So I can kind of understand where people are coming from and how they may have been confused because on the 11th of January, when you were on, we were talking about the potential for a bigger pullback, possibly up to 25% from the market top, which was late last year. I mean, is that still at the time when we talked about that, the markets were kind of falling and the markets didn’t have a very good start to the year. But like you said, it’s kind of recovered since then and just traded sideways.

So do you still hold that view that potentially we could still see an up to 25% pullback from its highs? Oh, for sure. I think we’re gonna see way bigger than a 25% pullback. It’s just a matter of when that bear market starts.

When does the music end? When do institutions start all being scared to be the last one selling their shares? Once the institutional investors, portfolio managers start unloading their portfolio and they’re like, everybody else they know in the industry starting to secretly unload, that’s when the bear market starts. The market trends really are dictated by the big institutional traders and they’re not net sellers yet. And right now it’s like the mass participants, every time the market gets hit, everybody’s still in buy the dip mentality.

And until this kind of feeding frenzy kind of ends, the markets, we’re not gonna see that big correction. But I do think this year we’re gonna see a huge correction. But people are actually, short-term investors and traders are bullish.

We’re seeing the ARK ETFs push up to new multi-year highs. We’re seeing a lot of the aggressive sectors moving up. And that’s a sign that people, hey, they’re not afraid of the market.

They’re moving into the fast moving things, hoping to make some big, quick money. And that usually is actually a contrarian sign in this particular market scenario. But I do think we’re gonna have a huge correction.

It’s gonna be an awesome opportunity. But until then, don’t bet on that. Bet with the trend, which is up at this point.

And there’s some really good analysis. I haven’t showed this really anyone else in a long time. This is the cycle analysis that I kind of always mention in the background that runs.

Long story short, and I teach this in my book, Technical Trading Mastery. But long story short, this is the SPY. If you can identify the most active cycles in the market, which they change from month to month, you get all these short-term and long-term cycles.

And depending on the size of the cycle, you give it a weighting, you can blend them all together, and it’ll give you a prediction of which way the bias that the market should go. So for example, we’ve had some of these cycle lows in the market over the last little bit where we’ve had the stock market put in a significant low. These red sections on the bottom are when we have a cluster of cycles coming together.

And typically these end up being these standout lows in the stock market. And we just had one like a month and a half ago. And so we are projected to see a wave up over the next week or so, which is, this is a nice bull flag pattern on the SP500.

And it does project forward how much further we’re gonna go to the upside over the next month or so. So that’s really exciting to see all this and to take it a step further. Not only are cycles pointing to higher pricing, but if we look at sentiment in the charts, this is the SPY and this is a proprietary strategy that tells us the sentiment of individual investors.

Deep red means they have sold their shares, they’re betting on falling pricing. And typically when the investors do that, the market wants to go the opposite way because most people are trying to pick a top. Even orange bars mean investors are unloading and they’re buying put options.

They’re expecting the stock market to fall. And most people picking tops, it’s a net losing strategy over the long run. The market every time is gonna try and go higher.

Everybody bets on falling prices, it pushes higher. Well, not only do we have a ton of people betting and expecting on falling prices, but we’ve got a lot of orange bars in here. So there’s a ton of people offside all expecting this market to fall.

And the more people expecting it to fall means if it breaks and pops to the upside, we’re gonna have a big short squeeze, we should have a really nice run. So sentiment is in favor, cycles are in favor, the chart patterns are in favor. And that’s why I think we’re gonna have a really nice push here going higher and send stocks up over the next couple of weeks.

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Go to joindelete.me.com slash David Lin in the link down below or scan the QR code here to get started and get 20% off on all US plans. Take back your privacy today. Well, what’s the upside target for you, Chris? Well, the S&P 500 looks like it could go roughly about 3% or so.

That’s just kind of the first leg higher. The NASDAQ has a fairly similar chart pattern. Depending on how short-term we wanna look, if we were to just take a look at this very tight one, it’s really only about a percent and a half.

But when we base it on cycle low to cycle low, I mean, it ends up being a very big upside potential move just based on where we have these cycles. So you can see from here, and this is like nosebleed territory. This would be one crazy, crazy run to the upside.

More or less, we’d be looking at a move that’s about 6% all the way up to about 14.5%, 15% to the upside in the NASDAQ. So there’s some pretty good move for like a blow-off top in the markets here. Well, the NASDAQ has seen a lot of volatility in the last month, especially with DeepSeek disrupting the markets.

Can we pull up a NASDAQ chart and just take a look at whether or not the same analysis applies? And the importance here is that some, yeah, certain fundamental events have driven this volatility. So I’m wondering if the cycle analysis still applies even in the midst of this DeepSeek craze. Yes, I mean, news and stuff just kind of gets woven into the chart.

So that last chart I had was the QQQ, which is the NASDAQ chart. So it’s still about that 15%, 16% to the upside for the NASDAQ itself. SP500, if we were to do the same type of chart pattern, will show a fairly significant move to the upside as well, which is, let’s just grab this price action.

So it’s about 11%. So there’s a lot of upside potential from this cycle low, but cycle analysis and technical analysis doesn’t take any weighting into what the news is. That’s one of the things we have seen with the markets the most.

And what I was kind of trying to hint to before is the market trend, long-term trend is up, the short-term trend is up. And every time we have news that goes against the trend, it hits the stocks really hard, but then the tide is lifting and it just lifts them back up again. And then we have bad news again and it goes up.

So we have everything in favor, and this is why trading the news and things like that can throw people off. A lot of people thought the market was done, yet it’s actually building more of a base to go higher. And every dip here keeps getting bought and you don’t wanna fight that, that’s for sure.

Okay, so let me just ask a pretty general question for maybe those of us watching right now who may not be familiar with your work or seen our prior interviews. If you’re short-term bullish on the S&P and the NASDAQ, what indicators are you still looking for that could signal long-term bearishness? In other words, you’ve just presented an excellent case as to why people should stay long. Why should we then worry about this 25% pullback or perhaps even a greater pullback that we referenced earlier in the interview? Yeah, I mean, what we’d be looking for is some type of divergence.

I mean, we do have a lot of divergence. Most of the stock market move has been happening from the Magnificent Seven, doing most of the lifting. Most stocks and sectors aren’t really participating.

They’re not making new all-time highs. So this market is weak. The only way we know when we’re starting a new major downtrend is when we have damage to the chart.

So eventually, if we see NVIDIA and we see the Magnificent Seven really continue to underperform and start to move lower, that is gonna be even more of a red flag. But what we’re gonna need to see is some sharp breakdown on the charts and for it to form some type of bearish pattern for it to start another leg down. We’re gonna need to start to see some of these pivot lows over the past couple of months broken.

So we have a series of lower highs and lower lows, and that is the definition of a downtrend. So we really, we need to see weak market to be like, okay, well, now we are in a downtrend. And if the Magnificent Seven on average, which we can look at the ETF, the MAGS, which is the ETF that tracks these, if this goes into a bearish pattern, if it starts to break down here, that is gonna be definitely a red flag that the market, like right now, it has a very strong bull flag pattern.

And if it holds here, it could have another big run, which would move the markets dramatically higher. This here is another bull flag pattern. This here was a bull flag type of pattern.

So they are a bullish pattern, but the Magnificent Seven, once they totally lose traction, if they start to break down, and especially if the stock market is trying to hold up and the stock market’s like going sideways, that’s not a good sign. Eventually we’re gonna see these really pick up speed. I think we could see a lot of unwinding, more so in the semiconductors and the Nvidia space, that will pull the market down.

So that’s what I’d be looking for is price to break down and for these market leaders that are the heavyweights that drag the market up or drag it down. We wanna see this particular ETF breaking down. That’ll be definitely a bad sign for the markets.

Some traders may have asked you, or may be wondering how you as a trader are navigating tariffs. Now I know you look at technicals and you believe that news get woven into the charts anyway, but uncertainty around fiscal policy and trade policies are front and center for traders right now, given how volatile they’ve been making the markets. One narrative I’ve heard, Chris, is that it doesn’t really matter what Trump does because it seems to me like tariffs are transitory, meaning he’ll implement tariffs or announce them.

And then as soon as he gets a deal done with these countries he’ll rescind them. So he’s using them as a transactional tool. It doesn’t have any long-term impact or even medium-term impact on the markets.

Do you agree with that, first of all? And the broader question is how do you factor in tariffs and Trump’s policies into trading in 2025? Yeah, I mean, it’s ridiculous, all this. It’s a bartering chip for him now and he loves to just swing his axe around, show he’s the big man, right? So all we have to know is Trump’s in power. Expect chaos, expect all kinds of ridiculousness and all kinds of stuff that will be put in place one day and removed the next day.

All it means is expect increased volatility. And I mean, there’s nothing we can really do other than ride out the noise and the chop that it brings along. And it’s just gonna increase- Do you position yourself for this volatility by being long and short at the same time with different positioning sizes and whatnot? Like how do you, we don’t know which way it’s gonna swing.

That’s the point I’m making. Yeah, well, the whole point of my strategy is to identify if money is net flowing into an asset class or out. If it’s flowing in, we just wanna hold it.

Any bad news should eventually just get bought back up again and so it’s like, just understand which way the money’s flow is going into that asset and no matter what the news is, it should be buffered by the underlying money flowing in to support that price. It’s just gonna, it increases our risk. We could get shaken out of trades a little bit more but overall, you really just have to kind of stick with the underlying trends.

The trend is your friend. It should do the heavy lifting. You might keep getting knocked down like we have been with news but it just continues to lift the market over time, right? I wanna shift gears now and talk about gold and gold miners.

Let me start with the miners, Chris. Let me just share my screen real quick and then I’ll jump back to your screen because I already have this chart pulled up. This is the GX here and the SPX is this purple line here.

The SPX is about 4% year to date. I’m using a year to date chart and the gold miners are up 20%. That’s a huge outperformance alpha in the last seven weeks or so.

Let me just take a look actually how the GDX has performed relative to gold because gold is trading at near, well, above all time highs. It’s nearly $3,000. Now, yeah, the gold miners are starting to really outperform gold now.

You’re starting to see that leverage. How do you feel about the gold miners and then we can talk about gold overall? Yeah, it’s nice to see gold miners starting to outperform. I mean, they’ve been such an underperformer for so long.

I think there’s a lot of interest in the metal space right now. Gold’s making continuous highs and miners, they went from the bottom of my best asset now list so they were one of the worst performing like really just a month ago and now they’re at the top. Now the silver miners, gold miners, the ARK ETFs, they’re all up there and money’s piling into this space.

I feel like it might be getting a little bit overdone. I think we’re starting to see the gold miners. I’ll let you share your screen now if you want, yeah.

Sure, yeah, I think gold miners are starting to, they’re starting to run into some resistance. If we take a look at the charts, you can see it’s been a very nice run to the upside for gold miners here. But we’re starting to get some selling into this space, meaning we’ve had this really nice run.

We had a tight little bull flag here. Fibonacci extension puts us right up at 100% target right here. And that also happens to be where we saw the last kind of previous peak.

So the fact that gold’s been holding up and moving higher and we’re seeing miners start to sell off a little bit here, we’re getting this increased volatility, is not a good sign. And we’re getting this, what is kind of like a running correction where it’s gapping all over the place. And we’re starting to get signs that we’re about to probably see this have some type of pause or pullback.

The fact that it’s hit a measured move is not a bad thing. It just means we need to expect gold miners and silver miners to take a bit of a pause, build a little bull flag, that we can create a new launch pad for it to go higher. And that’s kind of where we’re at.

Gold miners are performing really well. Silver miners are struggling. They’re not really participating that much and looking that good.

But if I had to pick one, which I kind of have been talking about for a long time, I would pick physical gold itself because it’s making new highs. It’s not a stock stuck in the stock market. So if the market does start to pull back, gold miners, which are stuck in the market, are gonna get pulled down with it because they’re part of it.

Gold is a commodity. It’s outside of the space. And it’s seen more as not just a speculative play, but more so as a safe haven where people around the world can buy and they don’t have to worry about their money from selling positions in a bank, for the bank going bankrupt or anything.

So gold is like, get yourself out of the financial system, hold something that has physical value and that’s out of reach for a lot of banks to just vanish with it. So I think miners have had their run. Everybody’s interested in them.

They’re at resistance. They’ve hit 100% measured move based on momentum should stall out here. If they have a nice bull flag pattern, if they trade sideways for a week or two and start to turn back up, they’re gonna probably be a really nice trade.

They could do very, very well. But this leg of it is done. It needs a breather right now.

So gold’s at 2,900 right now. And I just wonder if once it reaches 3,000, I don’t know when it’s gonna happen. Nobody knows.

Maybe by tomorrow. Maybe by next week. Maybe it won’t happen.

But anyway, if it does reach $3,000, I wonder if that’s the equivalent of 100K Bitcoin in the sense that 100K Bitcoin was a major resistance level. There was a lot of selling pressure around 100K. Bitcoin pierced above 100K and peaked around 109,000.

But it traded range bound then. It was like this major psychological resistance level. And I wonder if there’s just gonna be a lot of selling pressure around 3,000 or if $3,000 gold is gonna be different from 100K Bitcoin in the sense that $3,000 gold is just gonna be a launch pad for 3,500 or whatever the case may be.

Yeah. Yeah, I think there’s a few things at play. When we look at gold, it’s had a series of these rallies and pauses.

We’ve had a move up and the pullback. And based on Fibonacci, we should be going up to about 3,056. 3,000, as you just mentioned, David, is a whole number.

There’s gonna be a lot of people saying, if gold hits 3,000, I’m gonna sell some of my position, lock in gains. There will be another camp that’ll be like, hey, if it hits 3,000, I’m shorting the heck out of it. So naturally 3,000, the first time you hit it is gonna have a bunch of profit taking and probably some shorts trying to pick a top.

But based on the momentum, we’re probably gonna go up to somewhere around 30, 50, 30, 60, somewhere in there. And I think Bitcoin has been lagging. It’s been struggling.

I think a lot of that, a lot of people say people who are into Bitcoin are also very same people or similar people to people who trade gold, right? And so gold has been leading the way. So maybe the gold has just been shinier right now and everybody’s like, you know what? Gold’s making new highs, I’m gonna own gold. And so maybe all the money that’s usually going into Bitcoin is now people are like, yeah, I’m going into gold right now.

And say when gold hits 3,000, we actually might see Bitcoin pick up speed because maybe people are gonna move out of gold and move over to Bitcoin. I still like the Bitcoin chart. It looks like it wants to go higher, but right now I think the Bitcoin money is actually going into gold.

And I think we’re gonna see money slosh between those two, maybe for the next couple of weeks. Okay, so $3,000 gold. I wonder if right now between $2,900 to $3,000 is the major FOMO zone.

In other words, this is the part of the chart where people who may have not paid attention to gold up until now are like, whoa, what happened? This thing’s rallying like a rocket ship and I better get in before it’s too late. It’s right below the $3,000 mark. A lot of people are probably rushing in now.

Is that what’s happening? Because I’m not seeing that rush in just yet, but maybe you are. Yeah, I think the rush is starting. I think this is part of it.

You and I have talked about this in the past. Long story short, the long-term chart, the Fibonacci of this huge long chart pattern, we hit that 100% measured move a month and a half ago. And so now anything after this is really just icing on the cake.

You can milk it if you’re still in it. I do believe we’re gonna have this squeeze up and then eventually I think we’re gonna have a sharper pullback. I do feel people are piling in.

Everyone wants to talk about it. I was just on BNN this morning and all they wanna do is talk about gold, right? And I think this blow off phase, we hit this 100% measured move so that move is done. Now it’s like, okay, the FOMO phase of whoever hasn’t been into it is now moving in.

Very similar to what we see over here. We actually, it’s hard to see here because everything’s squished down, but there was another FOMO move over here. There was another squeeze here where price blast past its 100% measured move of just people who aren’t in it are being like, I can’t take it anymore.

I gotta get in. Everybody’s in but me. And so I feel like that’s the phase we’re in.

I think we could tag that 3,000 or 350 and then I think we’re gonna get hit and see a bigger pause and pullback which I’ve been talking about for a long time. I’m expecting to happen at some point this year and then precious metals and miners are gonna become a screaming buy for 4,000, 5,000 gold and things like that. Is this the same logic with the stock market? In other words, we’re gonna get momentum to the upside for now and then a pullback? Is that, are you looking at it the same way as the SPX is my question? Yeah, so generally what happens, you get this complacency or this FOMO move, this euphoric move where everybody finally says, I gotta get into gold.

It’s one of the biggest gainers. It’s leading the way and they all kind of pile in. It’s the way it works.

The general masses seem to pile in right at the last minute and you and I have shared this chart here of just the emotions of the traders and that’s the euphoric phase for gold. I believe we’re in this final squeeze. If you’re not in it, you feel like you gotta get in it and then it’s gonna go into a correction along with the stock market.

Gold will pull up, pull back and sell off with the market to some regard. How much, 15%, 30%, I don’t know. We’ll have to see how it unfolds but I believe we’re starting to get into this euphoric phase and I think we’re seeing money moving out of Bitcoin and into gold, which is telling us that aggressive traders are piling into gold to chase it higher and that’s typically a contrarian sign that the market, this trend is about to come to a bit of an end here.

Isn’t gold a safe haven asset in the sense that it’s signaling something wrong with the economy or markets for people to pile into this safe haven asset? That’s one interpretation, what do you think? Yeah, yeah, everybody calls it a safe haven. I even call it a safe haven because that’s what everybody seems to call it and think of it as but nothing is really a safe haven. Everything has waves of strength and then they have waves of complete annihilation.

Gold has the same thing. So it is a safe haven in a situation like this where the stock market seems way overvalued, real estate’s overvalued. We’ve got tariffs, we’ve got a new president.

There’s tons of fear creeping into this market. There’s tons of uncertainty and people want to move to something that they feel is a solid asset that can’t just vaporize or go bankrupt. And so gold is that safe, natural safe haven where people around the world say, okay, I don’t know what’s going on.

I’m just gonna buy some gold bars and silver bars and rounds but it is not a safe haven once a bear market starts. We see very big corrections anywhere, 35%. This other one here was 44% correction after the bull run.

So I think we’re gonna see something big. I think we’re gonna see 20, 30% correction in gold at some point. And the stock market’s probably gonna have a 25 to 55% correction but they’re both still in an uptrend, people.

Don’t go betting against it now. I’m long both. I own gold and I’m long the stock market.

So I am bearish but I don’t, I’m not position bearish. What’s the timeline for, I think you said 30, 50 was the top with the next level you’re looking for. Are we expecting that this quarter, Chris? Yeah, I think it’s gonna happen in the next 30, 45 days or so.

I think that’s what, it could take maybe two months but we’re on our way there. We’re running pretty quick. We’re not far, really.

I mean, everyone, nobody knows timing exactly. The point is whether or not you see this as a longer term trend or a shorter term upwards move to 30, 50 is kind of where I’m getting at. It’s nothing more than a trade if we, yeah, it really is nothing more than a trade.

We’re almost there. We’re only like 3% away. So that’s like two big days in gold of people piling in.

You know, it’s nothing earth shattering by any means. Okay, the DXY, let’s move to the dollar now. I know you like the dollar.

You’ve liked it for quite some time. It’s been taking a bit of a beating recently in the last couple of days. And tariff Monday was February 3rd.

Huge volatility for the DXY on that particular day. If you want to pull up a daily chart going back to early February. Went up and then it went down after Trump said no tariffs on Canada and Mexico after they reached a deal.

So yeah, just not looking great for the DXY after Trump said no more tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Yeah, there’s a lot of volatility. He’s throwing a few grenades in there, right? Like he’s just literally tossing grenades out everywhere, blowing up sectors and commodities and all that stuff.

That’s what he, I think, likes to do. Do you still like the dollar is kind of what I’m getting at, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

So if we zoom out short-term wise, it is now in a short-term downtrend. We do have like lower highs, we have lower lows. But in the grand scheme of things, it has had a very nice run to the upside.

This is what is called an ABC correction. So you have A, B, C. This C correction, once you break this low, is what flushes the market out. We tend to see a lot of fear, a lot of selling, because now people are like, oh, it’s breaking down, it broke support.

Most people naturally put a stop underneath a significant pivot low. So this ABC correction kind of cleanses the market. And when we look at this big rally, this can be just seen as a bull flag pattern.

It could still flag and move a little bit lower, but in the grand scheme of things, this chart is pointing to about 116 for the US dollar. Right now we’re at 106. So there’s still a very big upside potential move from the long-term charts.

And I’m still bullish long-term on this. When we take a look at the long-term charts, we do have a series of higher lows, higher highs. It’s not the sexiest looking chart, but we see like a base, and then we see a rally and a big pause and a rally and a pause.

And really we had a breakout above these highs on this monthly chart, and now it’s coming back down and testing that breakout level. And if we were to do a Fibonacci extension on here to where that upside target could be, we’re looking at potentially 124 based on this current leg. So short-term, yes, it’s been beat up.

There’s a lot of panic selling, but it really hasn’t done any serious damage to the long-term chart by any means. And it is pointing to a much, much higher price. And if we go way back in time, you can see it could get way up to what we saw back in the early 2000s, potentially even before that back in the 80s.

And depending on how things unfold, the Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar pair, I mean, my charts show that we could go all the way to about a buck 74 exchange, which means one U.S. dollar is a dollar 74 Canadian, which will be absolutely wild. It’d be great for some people, terrible for others. And that means we’re gonna see a strong dollar.

We’re gonna have a really weak Canadian loonie. And I think a lot of that’s gonna play into what Trump does with tariffs. And he just finished saying this morning, I think, that Canada no longer has military support until we become part of America, which Canadians, I think, are rolling in their graves hearing that.

But it’s pretty wild. It’s entertaining and frustrating at the same time what’s going on with the precedent. But did you say 174 CAD USD? Yeah, like we’re talking craziness.

Like, yeah. This is like, we’re at 1.4 right now? Am I right? Yeah, 1.4. We spiked up to 1.48. I thought I had a chart of that. I do right here.

If we take a look here. And this is the monthly chart. So we hit these levels that we haven’t seen in a long time.

And we got up to 1.48 was the peak when Trump said all that. And now he’s pulled it back, and it’s pulled back quickly. But we’re gonna break and potentially go off the top of this chart.

I don’t have the data that goes further back, but this could be very big. I mean, Canada could struggle a lot with these tariffs and all that stuff. This is an opportunity, though.

There’s gonna be a huge movement in the market. Just gotta make sure you take advantage of it. I think holding U.S. dollars is important.

I think there’s a huge potential move up there alone. So I think all this creates opportunity if you look at it that way versus just being like, oh, everything’s out of control. I’m gonna lose my shirt.

There are ways to take advantage of all of this. So basically you’re expecting the dollar to strengthen versus CAD to a level not seen since the early 2000s. So like a 20-year high.

Yeah, and the dollar CAD really just hit a high that it hit a couple times in the past couple years. So it’s resistance. It hit it, and now it’s selling back, which is normal when you hit a level like this.

So we just need it to stabilize. And then I do think we’re probably gonna see this continue to go higher. Well, you and I are both Canadian, and we’re expecting a new government this year, either a conservative win or another liberal leader.

I don’t know what’s gonna happen exactly, but right now the Conservatives are leading in the polls. What happens if that were to transition and they were to implement more favorable business policies? That could be strengthening or bullish for the CADs? Where no, it doesn’t really matter? Yeah, I think it could be. I think the Canadian dollar really is bouncing around with what’s gonna go on with the states, with the tariffs.

So it adds that whole uncertainty, the volatility of one piece of news could come out and create a wild swing like we’ve seen in the past month. So there’s no doubt. We’re walking on landmines here, investors generally, just because of what’s going on with Trump kind of kicking the hornet’s nest.

Although everyone’s hornet’s nest everywhere. Right, perfect. One last asset class I’m gonna cover before we go, NatGas.

I think you wanted to talk about that. What’s going on with that market? Yeah, so a lot of people have been talking about NatGas. I’m just gonna drop back down to the daily chart.

So a lot of people are really bullish on it. And I have a bit different look on it. I have more so a pretty bearish outlook.

Overall, it has had a very nice run to the upside, series of bull flags and pauses all the way up. But we got into some really big volatility in terms of we had a sharp rally, a very sharp pullback. We’ve seen this happen three times with a lot of volatility just in these last few bars of huge pops and drops.

Three surges to new highs here is a very bearish chart pattern. And then we had this really strong break to the downside. We broke a short-term pivot low.

We broke a previous pivot low. And now we’re kind of clawing our way back right into resistance through the average prices through here. So I know a lot of people are talking very bullish economic data for the economics of liquid natural gas liquefied to go to Europe and how it could be a huge spike.

But based on this chart, really what’s happened is you create this sob blade where you’ve got higher highs and higher lows. But now we actually have a series of lower lows, lower highs, and it actually is kind of pointing to more so a downtrend. And I believe we’re gonna see natural gas run out of steam here and then start a leg down.

So this will be interesting on the energy space if we start to see this start to move lower because this has been a very, very big run. We went from like a buck 80 all the way to like 440. So huge percentage run.

And I think there’s quite a bit of downside here on in the short term. One thing that a lot, when you look back at the monthly chart of the price of natural gas, this could build a really nice launch pad for the economic scenario. And we could see a much bigger move later this year.

But overall, when you look at the short term chart, I think you gotta be more or less selling into this rally for natural gas. That’s what it looks like. I think we’re gonna see it have a big pullback and pause before it even wants to go any higher.

Great, good. So your most bullish asset for 2025, has that changed since last we spoke? Not really. I think, I mean, gold right now is still the upper play in terms of, it’s a nice trend.

And I think in terms of the best play, it’s tough because the market changes so fast, right? But yeah, I like gold holding its value. Equities, I think you should be long right now. But overall, I think a good play is preserving capital, having cash on the sidelines.

You kind of have to have a little bit of a mix in this current scenario that we’re in. All right, well, if you wanna follow more of Chris’s work, click on the link down below. What can we learn from you, Chris? What happens when people go to that website? Sure, yeah, if you go to my website, more or less I share videos, kind of like what you and I just did now.

I go into detail every morning before the opening bell on the intraday charts, the daily charts. I cover all the asset classes and precious metals. And I share what’s going on, what to expect for the day, how our positions are going.

I manage my own portfolio. I share my portfolio and my positions and my trades with subscribers. So you learn a lot.

You stay up to speed with the markets and you get to just ride the coattails of what I do. I follow the coattails of the markets and subscribers just kind of copy what I do or take advantage of my analysis and play it that way. Excellent, the link down below.

Thanks, Chris. Good update. We’ll speak again soon.

Thanks, David. Take care. Take care for now and thank you for watching.

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