Gold Price REVALUATION to Happen in MONTHS? (Uncut) 02-12-2025

 Gold Price REVALUATION to Happen in MONTHS?

You’re watching Capital Cosmos. My name is Danny and today’s guest is Francis Hunt, fan favorite, market sniper, Francis Hunt. Thank you so much for coming on, my friend.

Thanks for inviting us again, Danny. Glad to be back. Yeah, let’s just dive right in, Francis.

I know we’ve got a lot of stuff to talk about. Hell, we were talking for about half an hour before we hit record. So there’s definitely a lot of meat on the bone when it comes to hot topics going on around the world.

But I want to ask you, for you right now, at this very moment, what is most topical on your radar screen? A lot is being said about tariffs. And the key phrase, short form answer, tariffs are inflation. China levied tariffs on LNG, liquid natural gas, from America in counter action to what America did, and also oil and other energies.

What does that do? If China was taking any American overflow, and we know Europe is being provided gas from Houston in America because of Russia bad, and not doing that one anymore, which has been very inflationary and very destructive, particularly to the spinal column of Europe, Germany, just think the automotive makers, VW, killing plants on their homeland for the first time ever, near bankruptcy, BMW, Mercedes trading below net asset value. So energies is violence in a way, in an economic tool sense. And the Chinese have gone straight for that.

So what that means is, if you are utilizing as a Chinese producer, any American oil or gas to manufacture, remember, globalization is, we said, no worries, everybody’s friends. Workshop can be China. We don’t need to do manufacturing anymore.

Terrible mistake, particularly for the United Kingdom, which has got rid of just about all its manufacturing. The US has realized it’s got rid of too much, but probably still has a bit more than the UK. The US is relying on technology and scale and the dollar currency for its hegemony, no longer being a big exporter, being a net importer.

And you find the UK, by focusing on financial services, was destroyed post subprime and hasn’t really recovered and is in a downward spiral trajectory, has no local. Manufacturing matters. Despite technology, despite other industries like AI, having a good manufacturing base and maintaining some home-based manufacturing is important, because you’re less smashed by offshore decisions that have knock-on effects to you.

And by putting a tariff on energy, let’s assume China uses X percent of US energy in manufacturing, that tariff gets built into the cost of the production, and nobody can replace China’s scale of production overnight. It’s a mutually, I don’t want to say beneficial relationship, but in some senses beneficial, but it’s also, they are tied together in destruction, in that America can’t replace the scale of production that China offers at the cost that China offers, and China can’t replace the buyer at the scale that America offers in any great way. So they are both putting in inflationary measures.

So if you buy, let’s assume you buy an item that’s made in a factory in China, which is actually using some percent of gas or oil provided from America, there’s an increased input cost in the PPI, the production price index, that will reflect, that’s going to put a cost on the output, assuming margins are staying the same, and there’s no great compression, and I can’t see why that China’s going to cut prices to help America get more tax money. So the Chinese government is getting a scoop and a take off American product, and it’s pushing the production price up. That product is, let’s say, coming to a Walmart, and America’s saying, you’re coming from China, therefore we’re also going to put a 10% on top of that.

You’re going to have a higher price that has a higher input of production cost on that item, and on top of it, the American government is going to tax. So who benefits? The two governments get a cash flow, and the price reflects the fact that there’s been a double take by two intermediaries that are not involved in the production process or the delivery process, and government is the worst allocator of capital. So America will send it to Israel, or sell them very cheap arms to pursue an attack on Iran, let’s say, or to pay the interest bill that is going to go higher to the cartel of bankers that were given the exorbitant privilege of borrowing money into existence and charging you for it.

As the interest rates go up, the cost paid to them goes up. So that money is not going into American infrastructure, and the Chinese government the same. Although I would say they play a longer game that is more strategic, it’s a communist nation, and government, as final arbiter of capital, is going to have to suit the communist government’s needs, which will be building partnerships, long-term investments in other nations’ infrastructure, a la the economic hitman model, which they’ve assumed and taken over from America, which is why there’s a Panama issue at the moment, because China has been creeping into Panama immensely, and Rubio has been down in Panama trying to get them to tear up an agreement, which has seen China building infrastructure.

I’ve driven that road, which is being replaced by a highway that China has built. So you’re sitting with, okay, hold on, we want more production to go on in our own country, so Americans are also making, by making Chinese production more expensive, thanks to the Chinese and the American tariffs, are also creating the possibility that a little bit of manufacturing will come back on shore. So it’s a bit of a reversal of globalization.

Now, what happened when we globalized? I know quite well, because I started a property company, even though everyone in the UK said, don’t do property, it’s going to crash. In 1999, I arrived in the UK, I saw that we were, this was under the Greenspan era, when everything was starting to be rolled out to China, and they kept interest rates artificially low. I said, we’re going to have asset price bubbles, and property prices are going to go up, because things are being manufactured, and the prices are actually going down as this is happening.

So they’re allowing much more liquidity, and the liquidity is flushing into assets. So every inflation cycle actually starts in asset prices first, not in the slice of bread and the liter of milk. You first get asset price inflation, it’s only last commodities move.

Commodities is the final shoe that breaks, because they are something that has been commoditized. Commoditized means there’s no supernormal profits in manufacturing this. Every technological inch is being exploited, and if you’re not scaled, you can barely make normal profits, nevermind supernormal profits.

So that’s farming. You need to be 60,000 hectares, 100,000 hectares farms, and you have to run it on five people. Huge tracts of land with very expensive combined harvest, with big mortgage financing on it, and all of that to come out.

So it got marginalized, and so commodities are last to move. Of course, we’re now seeing them move in the form of cocoa, arabica bean coffee, robusta bean coffee, and all of these things. They’ve been inside a range since the 70s, and they are smashing out.

So eventually even the commodities move, so we’re seeing that happening. But the interesting thing is, energy is very, very inflationary, and China has tariffed U.S. energy, and America that relies on Chinese goods has tariffed Chinese goods. So who’s the loser? The two governments get a cash flow, and the price paid by the American consumer in the U.S. has paid those two governments an extra tax take in an inflationary cost for the good item that they bought, that didn’t need to be there.

So the point I was making is, during the globalization phase, we actually had very low inflation and high growth, because we were creating a lot of liquidity, and it wasn’t causing inflation. Now, that was the Goldilocks period. It was referred to as Goldilocks by Greenspan.

We’re now in the inverse Goldilocks period, where we want to take production back on land, and we’re making other nations that have a competitive advantage in manufacturing, making them more expensive, so that less of their goods comes from offshore, and more is done locally. That’s reverse globalization, and it has an inflationary cost, because you got the deflationary benefits during the Greenspan era, which was, he couldn’t explain why there was no inflation. There was inflation.

The house prices, the stock market, and everything else. The commodities come last. Once you reach that stage, and we’ve reached that stage, because I’m mentioning the softs that are already running that all-time highs.

So we’ve had the perfect Goldilocks period. We now get the inverse Goldilocks period, which is stubbornly low growth, recessionary, consumer-wrecked, and high inflation rates, along with high interest rates. So that, unfortunately, is terrible for the bond market.

Remember Paul Falker? He pushed the rates all the way up to the highs. He deflated away all the debt Nixon and LBJ created in the Vietnam War, which saw America make the military industrial complex super rich, and made it one of the biggest vampire squids sucking tax cash flows, and it scaled it up. And now you have CIA, you’re just discovering about USAIDs, and all these other set-up quangos and organizations that are just spewing cash for nefarious reasons.

Those things are going to get shrunk back down immensely, because the cost of interest is now too high to pay to the banking cartel. The infrastructure needs attention is not going to get it. The unfunded liabilities are absolutely immense, and aren’t even being talked about, in terms of pensioners, Medicaid, welfare, and all of that.

And you know, Chicago professors in 2018-19 already said that’s at 600% of GDP at the time, the welfare. So you’re talking about a bankrupt nation. And eventually, the final key, because everyone says, who cares if we bankrupt, we can keep printing, we own the world currency, we can just crack on, there’s a new normal.

Not when the interest rates get too high, not when your debt collapses, and then you can’t spend the same anymore, because no one will buy that debt, and only you can self-monetize it. And offshore people are going, no thank you on the asset class, don’t forget, we’ve lost on TLT, the ETF, you’re talking about a 50% plus collapse since we called the turn in the bond market. The debt market is the foundation of the American hegemony.

And it is crumbling, and that’s going to cause FX rates, volatility. And the irony is, it pushes the dollar up at the expense of everyone else, because they borrowed offshore in dollars. So as the interest rates get higher, and they have to pay bigger amounts, they have to print more rands, more Turkish lira to buy dollars to pay the higher interest rate.

So even if they borrowed 100 billion over X amount of years, they have to pay back 150 billion. And they aren’t selling 50 billions worth of goods to the American market. So that’s a big problem.

So they’re going to destroy their currencies trying to print enough of it to make the interest payments. So you get this final surge. We talk about the village of currencies like this.

It’s always the beggars that are outside the walls that die first. Then you get inner walls, inner walls, and the center goes even higher under attack. You collapse from outside, and everything rushes into the middle.

That’s kind of like the village under attack. All the people in the outer layers try to get in towards the greater security as the horde comes. And that causes the dollar to spike and other currencies.

So we’re going to get currency volatility, we’re going to get USD dominance as part of this. And eventually, we’ll have a gold move on a huge dollar spike. But I think we get a rest first.

And we’ve made a number of technical targets that I’ll just show you. By the way, we did a 38.02, super precise move on gold. That is just finished a year long trade.

And I’d like to show that to you. Yeah, sure. One thing, one thing, France, a follow up question regarding some of the nth order effects of these tariffs that you mentioned.

Yes, inflationary first order effects definitely would come into play. But what of the deflationary consequences later down the line? Once prices become higher, surely wouldn’t that impact demand on the consumer side and create this deflationary tailwind, so to speak. And then, you know, both countries tend to, you know, they won’t be able to receive the same amount of cut from the tariffs as they would initially as the demand on both sides begins to dwindle due to the deflationary effects of the tariffs.

I believe it’s called Dubon’s paradox. Yes. So essentially, to summarize in a short sentence for you in response, all forms of taxation, especially when they get pushed beyond a certain point and a tariff is just a disguised tax.

That sounds very good. It’s a con. It’s like Donald Trump is pretending to protect America and American interests.

But he’s actually taxing his citizen with higher prices. All forms of moving away from free trade and adding tariffs is in essence a taxation. The more these things occur, you get taxed to a point of diminishing returns where it causes collapse and you default into essentially a communism.

And the UK is finding that they’re at about 45 percent income tax. They’re at ridiculous heights of corporation tax. And they’re telling them they’re going to tax more because they’ve got less money to spend.

There’s a point where if you push taxations or tariffs or any costs to free trade. And there’s only one exception when one country is dumping where a tariff may be justified, you get a situation where you get diminished economic activity. In other words, the incentives turn to everybody doing less rather than more.

The tax take is at its peak at moderate to low taxation, not at high taxation. That includes tariffs, VATs, GSTs, income tax, corporate tax, etc., etc. So you get the society you incentivize.

If you pay welfare and you punish those who seek to build wealth and add value, you end up in a Bolshevik communistic state, which was the killing of the bourgeoisie, the middle class, the academics, the capable. They slaughtered them. They slaughtered the German settler farmers in Russia that moved in there because they were self-reliant, they were reasonably wealthy, middle class, and they were feeding the whole nation.

And then they right-sized the food supply by slaughtering all their farmers and ended up starving their peasants too. That is why the biggest human sacrifice was Christian Orthodox Russians by the Bolsheviks during the pre-First World War era into around about 1917. And that brought in the likes of Trotsky, Lenin, and then later Stalin, which took us into World War II.

So it just kind of bridged in between First World War. The Russians refused to engage in the First World War. I think the warmongers resented them for that, and they didn’t take control over the media, and the Tsar didn’t have control over the media, and soon they started agitating, doing what they’re doing, and they managed to manifest a revolution that was funded by London and New York’s banking cartel.

And in fact, even Americans were in the then-soon-to-become-USSR during the Red and White Russian Revolution. And they were there to stop people coming to protect the Tsar. They were in the farther-flung areas because most of the Red threat was in and around Moscow and St. Petersburg.

They didn’t have that many people, and Russia is a big place. So that’s how you got Bolshevism. That’s how you got slaughter, torture, destruction of religion, and eventual mass starvation.

And then you got the brutality of Stalin and his soldiers, and how he managed these soldiers, and the people behind those soldiers that were raping and plundering, who they all were. So there’s a lot of a deep dive in all of this. And unfortunately, to today, there’s quite a lot of parallels to this process.

Too much taxation rolls socialism into communism. Socialism is almost like a gateway drug to communism. And the welfare state, the ubi-dom, the resentment is towards the self-reliant libertarian classes who find a way to still be of use and of value to others, and make reasonable alpha and money existence.

And communism is very much based off the culture of envy, as we were discussing. So you get that tendency to play to the lowest common denominator and seek dispossession. And we’re getting a little bit of that.

You get Trump and Elon, we were just mentioning before, we spoke on the South African story. It’s all well and great to say there’s a large percentage under white hands, but you’re talking about commercial farms for people who are actually producing all your food and getting you exports that are one of the few things that are earning you foreign currency to pay for your US dollar loans here in South Africa. But the culture of envy is a very popular one, and we will take the land away from them.

It’s not because those other people that think they will be the beneficiaries of that are wannabe farmers. They’re all urban. But it feeds to the lowest common denominator.

And communism, Bolshevik communism, is a lowest common denominator feeding system, and those that are behind it love to utilize that. And they weaponize the lowest common denominator people to pray and push for that communism. And it’s crabs in the bucket to take down your middle classes and punish them with taxes, regulation, push out the small landlords on the basis that everyone’s a slumlord, et cetera, et cetera, and an abuser.

This is the solidarity speak of totalitarianism. And that’s kind of where we are. Yeah.

Yeah. Well, before we pivot over to gold, I have one more follow-up question regarding the 10-year yield. This has been the topic of concern, especially within the Trump administration.

Besent came out the other week, and he said his main objective was to manage the 10-year yield down because the Fed, despite lowering interest rates, have actually skyrocketed the 10-year yield. So it doesn’t appear that the Fed’s been able to do what they need to do. It looks like the focus on the government now has shifted more so towards managing the yield.

I don’t want to say yield curve control, but they could bring the yield down, I guess, through managing the deficit or things along that nature. What do you think they meant by that? It’s fascinating. I bought a book at the airport by a guy called Scott Galloway.

It’s a certain kind of guy that gets to have his book put in the airport, and he was a young World Economic Forum leader. And he was recently on the diary of a CEO with a number of other speakers. And he said the Democrats handed back a great economy.

And he referenced once the US 10-year, but didn’t say very much. So let’s just discuss that point because you brought it up. You want to talk the US 10-year, let’s talk the US 10-year.

And I’m going to put you onto the US 10-year right here. And let’s also check if our friend Scott Galloway of the young World Economic Forum brigade is actually accurate about, you know, Kamala actually ran a good game, but, you know, she was left to the last. These are comments he made on this very popular YouTube diary of the CEO.

You’ll probably remember that Biden came in in 2020 on what was largely contemplated a stolen election. He apparently got more votes in the swing states than Obama originally. That’s the official story.

I don’t know. You know, I don’t want to get involved with an opinion on American stuff, but that sounds super fishy to me. It was never that catchy, entertaining in my world.

He was one of, I think he was about fourth or fifth best candidate in terms of the debates. That is 2020 when Biden came in. Right.

And this is the end. This is 2024. Essentially, the last year of the election concluded at the end of 24.

So kind of here. Trump’s officially been inaugurated 25. That’s what the 10-year rate has done during that period.

Even if we take it to September, there you are. That’s what rates did under the Democrats. And if we look at what that means for the bond market as a whole, I had this chart ready to show you, but I’ll go straight to it now.

Sure. You look at 2020. This is now a monthly chart, not a weekly.

This is TLT, long term debt holdings. Don’t forget, we had a short call on this from here. This is how valuation of American debt has done under the Democrats.

Now, I don’t get involved in left, right. Neither of them are working for you. So this isn’t a plug for the Republicans either.

But this particular author talks about being a Democrat and says that the Democrats handed a great economy back to the Republicans and that Biden lacked the ability to eloquently state this. Well, that’s what happened to the American debt valuations under the four years of the Democrats. By the way, their overspend on income in every month hit new highs.

So this is essentially me earning 100 grand, getting you to give me a credit card with 250,000 grand and living the full life by spending my 100 grand and the 250K overdraft living like that. And you’re saying, look how well he lives, he’s done a great job. And I hand my finances back to you and I bought all these perishables and lived the king of the life after four years, spending way more than I need.

And the value of my debt or credit score has done the equivalent of this. More damage in the four years on the debt market than a long term escalator bull market in debt from well before the 2000s. The whole debt game is up, which is why every time people ask me an economic question, I always start with the foundation of the American.

Fiat based system is based on a layer of debt and the debt has crumbled. Remember, it’s meant to be a boring, pretty stable, inched upwards for 40 years in value and paid a meager return, but compensated you a little bit for inflation. You chased equities for alpha 60 40.

It lost 50 percent in less than three years. It’s no longer stable. It’s no longer introducing low volatility to your high volatility equities.

It is the problem. You have your 40 and you got paid nothing relative to true inflation rates for it. So this is the debt based collapse.

It is not a Democrat success story. Neither is it a Republican one, by the way. But people like this who want to sell you books on building wealth and show up on Diary of the CEO and said it was the Democrats lack of ability to actually verbalize what a great economic job they’d done on living in cloud cuckoo land.

And he brought up the tenure. Just look at the tenure. The tenure has got expensive because nobody wants to lend money to a bottomless pit borrower.

That’s why. And in fact, the Chinese aren’t buying anymore. The Saudis aren’t circulating to the same degree.

The petrodollars anymore, no matter what they say, they they want to look like they walking a fence. But who wants to buy a guaranteed loss. Of these scales and with such a bad future, with such a bad future coming its way, do you want to be a holder of this asset class that is going to be deflated away a la Fokler with the rates climbing like this? So our default position has been higher rates in general.

That entire thing has turned and tariffs are going to help bring that. And with tariffs bringing higher rates, you’re going to have dollar dominance and the rest of the wrecking ball on the rest of the currencies that Ben Johnson correctly refers to. He deserves credit for that part of the statement.

An eventual super spike in the dollar, followed by a collapse. Because eventually America has to live within its means. Now, imagine you’ve been spending twice and you’ve been doing it on a hypervalued stock market, getting capital gains on hypervalued property and hypervalued equities and all forms of things.

And now you have to live within your means and all those assets collapse and lots of losses and bankruptcies occur. How’s your tax take going to move? Your tax take is going to drop even lower. Living within your means is going to be even harder and you’re going to cut virtually everything.

Forget infrastructure spend. You Americans are going to be asked to pay more to get a whole bunch less in the long run. And the size of the military that everybody says, we’ve got the military, we’re the biggest, strongest force.

You’re going to go into those deserts where they have the old B-52s and it’s going to be stock with things, planes you’ve paid hundreds of millions before that you can no longer even maintain. By the time you have to cut your cloth to your income in a reduced income state, which will be the crushed, the bankruptcies, the asset base collapses that have been hyperinflated, that is going to be such a harsh coming to ground. And people don’t understand.

You’re going to have to suddenly your income is going to halve and you’re going to have to live within it where you are spending twice as much. You’re probably talking about spending on citizens about 20% what you previously did. Imagine how many projects entirely on welfare and Medicaid have to be reneged on, renegotiated, how often your roads are going to get fixed.

Municipalities are going to be starved. And there are states that are even worse that have their own debt crisis within that, such as California and others. You’re going to see tar roads that have potholes that will be returned to dirt roads because no one can undertake the maintenance.

So it’s such a harsh one. And I know American audience, it sounds like I’m blackmailing and telling you about bad news and I’m depressing you. There is a way.

You’ve got to get gold, but you also have to contemplate the plight of the West. The West is going down and the flagpole bearer for the West is the US. And it’s not going to be the same.

Yeah. And I’d like to kind of segue here into some of our gold talk here, Francis. But before I do that, I want to give a quick shout out to our partners over at ITM Trading.

If you guys are looking for some of the better prices out there, be sure to give them a call. The number is down below as well as the link to consult with them and schedule your own strategy session in terms of how to accumulate your gold and silver. I can’t encourage it enough.

So if you’re looking for different ways that you can maneuver in this coming world that Francis is alluding to, I highly recommend checking them out. Link is down below as well as the phone number. So Francis, I’ll let you take it away.

Let’s talk about gold here for a second. I know you have a bit of a nuanced take on it, so I’ll let you go with this wherever you want. Yeah.

Just on the ITM Trading, it’s a transgenerational family business as well. It’s not a transactional approach. We actually affiliate with them as well.

And I encourage everyone to grab your link. I think they’re good guys and they’ll look after people well. Anyway, the gold price has just run a very big target for us.

And it’s usually after everything going giddy great and all the news flow being so much about potential resets in gold prices and everything. I always feel there’s a little bit, they leak a little bit of what you want to hear. And you’ve got to be careful of media being leaked.

That is why we make trading decisions based on technical chart based levels, not on news flow. Nothing could sound more bullish right now for gold. And we’re closed leverage longs.

Does that mean now I’m a short? Absolutely not. I’m an investment long and I will remain investment long because ensuring you get supply is the game. And once you have it, hold on to it and make sure it’s not going to be with someone who can hypothecate it to somebody else.

So owning is best. But this is quite a big flag continuation event. And we had two targets.

We also had this little squeeze wind up over here that also gave us this level. So we had a confluence of targets at the 2,900 level. So we are closed of a leverage long that we put on here.

And by the way, that’s 38.02. It’s been a year. We spoke about you’ll be rejected three times at the 2K mark. Rejected, quite severely rejected, the least at the smallest rejection.

And then when you get above it, it will serve as support. And then we had a beautiful squeeze there and we got long leverage and you hold it for a year. And that is a 38 times reward getting to 2,900.

And that trade has just landed. And what I’ve learned about targets is it’s a good place to take off your leverage, stick to it. And it usually ends up, targets are run.

So it doesn’t stop. It’s not an exact sign. They are typically run through.

But after that, you often get a pause pullback turn. So short time frame, I’d even buy us to neutral to even likely pullback orientated on gold right now. It’s not the time to go leverage long at 2,900.

For me, we are closed our trades and it’s the end of a 38.02 RRR return. However, on the macro timeframes, we have six, eight, seven and a half, really big on the monthly, three monthly and annual targets. So it’s not a top call ever, all time high on gold, but it might be a localized high for a while.

On that point, you have pauses and we’ve just done a YouTube of our own. And the pauses typically highlight like this. Here’s some targets for you from long ago, including the 80s.

You had at 1980 highs, you had a wait period right the way through to a low before you crossed those 80 highs at 800. It took the property crisis of 2008 and the inflationary practices of quantitative easing to get you there. That’s 28 years.

That’s from the last high to the next. Then you made this high. That was 2011.

You might recall it 1927. We didn’t trade the 2K. Remember, we get bulk at the 2K and we pull back.

When did you cross that high or cross again? You’re talking 2011 to roundabout 2020. So that’s nine years. Let’s just write these down.

28, nine. You can see these things are coming down. These are in years.

Let’s look at the smaller time frame. Whoops, I didn’t mean to delete all that, but I’ve got some stuff that’s in the way there. So get a smaller time frame.

So remember the 28 and the nine. You then made in 2020, it’s high. How long did it take before you took it out? 24.

Feb of 24, you took it out. That’s our 38 reward. So you went from 21.

You’re down to three years. So 28, nine, and three. It seems like it goes down by a factor of three each time.

Yeah, this was almost three and a half going from 28 because four to seven. Yeah, it’s about three and a half almost, a bit more. But you are dropping by a factor of three.

That doesn’t mean you’re going to be a year, but you could be three months. You could be four months. I don’t think you’re going to get consistency in the factor there perfectly.

If this was 29, maybe we could make a case for three being the unique number there. So you could make a localized high, but then go further. Maybe it’s one year.

Maybe it’s going to be six months. Maybe it’ll be three months, maybe three weeks. The truth of the matter is things are getting disorderly, but it might be localized high.

I wouldn’t put a lump sum investment right now in gold. Most times I would, but if it’s a lump sum, I’ll time it. If you DCA, keep DCA.

It’s not a timing tool. The key thing is you’re accumulating units. But I just want to highlight that.

The way I’ve always looked at gold, Francis, is just you kind of allocate a certain percentage of your disposable income to it on some frequent base, whether it be at the end of the month or at the end of the quarter or anything like that. And you just say, you know what? Whatever I have left over, I’m going to put 10% of it in gold and not even think about the price. It’s kind of like an insurance policy.

You just pay it. And then over time, you let averages work out, right? You’re not always going to get the lows. You’re not always going to get the highs.

But if you do it consistently over time, it’s kind of like going to a casino. You’re going to find a nice little sweet spot. You’re right.

You’re right. And just to make clear that I’m still a macro bull, and I’ve mentioned 6, 8, and 7 off, because many people say if you call a localized high, oh, he’s a bear. It’s not a binary thing.

It’s a time frame thing. Small, short term, medium time frame. I don’t think it’s going to be so great as it’s just been.

Long term, still a bull. Macro, still a bull. We also made a call, if you wanted to be neutral, because too many people like to go long gold, they think, what if you’re wrong? I said, OK, do a commodity delta neutral trade, long gold, short oil.

That was on an inverted head and shoulder. So this is gold divided by oil. We’ve done it both way around.

Oil divided by gold, it’s a head and shoulder. Gold divided by oil, it’s an inverted head and shoulder. And this has been a longstanding trade for us.

At this low, one ounce of gold bought you 14 barrels of oil. One ounce of gold, you’ll get 14 barrels of oil. That was as oil was hitting 129 on its rebound post the CB19 lows.

When this triggered and broke away the neckline, it did a return move, the neckline’s at 28. That means one ounce of gold buys you 28 barrels of oil. These targets are up here around 62 and 53.

We’re still expecting this to be made. But the difference might be if gold is slowing down its up move, you might have a bit more of that distance being made up on a little bit of oil weakness. In other words, tariffs kill consumers.

When consumer gets killed, they travel less, they buy less, less delivery, less packaging, oil go down more. Gold won’t go down as much as oil. It just needs to go down less for this to make target.

It doesn’t even have to go down at all. It can be flat or it can even go marginally up and oil can be going down. It just needs to be less weak than oil and tariffs are going to, especially tariffs on energies, are going to see less use of energies because the disposable income that people have is going to be less.

The degree of disposable expenditure will be less and all the things that travel delivery and oil and plastics, which are all oil based. So much of packaging is oil based. All of that purchase is going to go down.

So we highlight this trade as well. Just in case people think we’re calling tops on gold, we’re saying the relationship in these two still has higher to go. But that might not all be made with just so far, it’s all been made on gold dominance and oil has been indifferent.

It’s a tiny bit softer, but it’s chopped up, it’s chopped down. The bearish side of the oil call has been patchy for us. It’s generally slightly lower, but it’s not been consistently low.

That might change. And tariffs are part of that. And inflation is part of that.

And if we’re right about inflation coming back, tariffs being inflationary and governments taking a bigger tax take, which a tariff is, and passing that cost on to the consumer, essentially you have a consumption tax for Americans, even on basics. You wouldn’t get away with a tax on bread and milk if you were Trump. That’s not PR.

But if you’re getting cheap made goods that everybody needs from a foreign nation, bread and milk is probably not the example I would use for China, but let’s say plastic goods or consumable items, you are going to pick up costs and inflation. And that’s going to put a wrecked consumer is going to put a lot of downward pressure potentially on oil. Remember, as people are put off by the debt markets and they put off by the hyper valuation of the equity markets, the final reserve asset that used to be part of portfolios before we just had the 60-40 was holding gold.

So gold can even be moderately sideways in a deflationary environment. And it’s still technically going up against everything else because everything else is contracting. I see.

And what is silver’s relation to all of this? Does silver have any, I mean, silver hasn’t gone up as much as gold has. Does it have the same headwinds going against it? Okay. No, because gold is first as the monetary metal and this is a stage-based process.

And we still in stage one. Silver ends the bull market, doesn’t it? Yeah. And that’s right.

And everybody’s jumped straight to stage two and three. They go, well, this comes next and I want to be early. Now you’re going to sit around and let stage one play out for its fullness.

This is an entire worldwide-based reset of stage one, two, three, four of awareness. And you’ve jumped ahead of the game. And actually, technically, silver is underperforming gold and we are getting higher gold-silver ratios.

We called this a breakout to the upside on the gold-silver ratio. And it’s been a concern. And I am not a net buyer of silver, although I maintain and hold all that I’ve bought previously.

And eventually, you know, you might want to become a buyer and you have to deal with unobtainium. So, you know, investment doesn’t have the short time frame in us thinking that I would do a technical trade. But right now, gold has been the technical trade.

We will not leverage long silver. It is underperforming gold and gold has a higher price point. So in percentage terms for gold to outperform silver is quite something.

And this tells me institutions, billionaires and richies are doing the buying. And that’s what possibly causing the hypothecation that’s causing a panic. It’s the big money.

It’s the big money that moves into gold. It’s the people that move into silver. And the big money are the first movers because they can see what’s happening behind the fraudulent curtain more than you or I. And this is central banks, hedge funds, home offices maybe, and high net worth individuals.

And they are pushing gold. And you’ve got to follow the process. And that’s why we traded the gold long, because we had the technical setup and we didn’t in silver.

And silver is looking weaker than gold. How long is the process, Francis? Go ahead. So I would.

So when does it turn? You’re asking, essentially. I’m looking for this to come back around and to break the 75 level. Then I think we have a chance of the 65 being broken.

At the moment, this is an upside break. And you may run 100. You may run 110.

God forbid, you might even make a new high on gold silver ratio. We’re sitting there. There was one point where we considered this a possible head and shoulder.

But this now has turned into a very bulky right shoulder and it loses its proportionality. So I’m not putting a time on it because I can’t. It would be a wild guess.

Your guess might possibly be as good as mine. But as long as this is looking bullish to the upside, I’m a gold buyer, not a silver buyer. And the key point to remember is silver has more of an industrial component to it, like other metals, even palladium, for example.

And in a weak economy, if you’re relying on industry, it’s a problem. I still think it’s manipulated. I think it’s manipulated down to make the military industrial complex affordable, battery cars affordable.

That’s big users. But if we have a contraction in that space, it will come down as well. So it’s not a buy right now, but it certainly holds your existing investment, even accumulate on a DCA basis as well in silver.

But it’s underperforming gold and it’s likely to continue until technically it shows me that it’s reversing around this and coming the other way. And we’re not seeing that as yet. Despite all that you’re hearing about loan rates and all of that, the chart doesn’t lie.

And that’s how I close out news from affecting me. What does the chart say? It says it’s still not time for silver yet. Unpopular decision.

We’re still in stage one. It’s still a gold buyer’s market. Stay in stage one until it’s time to pivot to stage two.

You will get it. You won’t be the very first, but you’re not going to be sitting twiddling your thumbs going nowhere while gold is moving from 2000 to 2900. And you’ve just left the better part of 45 percent unparticipated in.

We’ve had an investment and we added gold investment on the count of this and we traded it and we’ve done nothing on silver. This is the reason why. There is a metal that is looking a little more interesting for those that will be find it hard to go dollar dominance.

So I don’t want to sound just that’s not a popular opinion. I know that. And people won’t like it.

It’s based off the charts and the charts guide me. But there is one metal that’s kind of interesting that I am going to show to you. Yes, it’s far more niche.

It’s a lot smaller. It’s actually South Africa and Russia as the main providers. I’m going to log scale that.

And it’s been moving higher and higher. We entered over here. Stop over there.

And it’s actually going to overperform. This is the target. We’ll do a partial close here.

This is one where we won’t unlike the gold. We won’t do a full closure. We think this could chronically outperform.

This is an upside HVF set up. And what you could find is even if we get a little bit of dollar strength because this is such a niched small market metal. This can still run on the dollar firming.

So I think if the gold is going to rest, we can have a dollar firming period. Bitcoin guys don’t want to hear that. I think crypto could be a bit dull.

Huge falling wedge of multi decade, you know, since 2005. Little note to the wise. There was a time two point three thousand two thousand three hundred.

My apologies. If I divide this by gold, there was a point that platinum was two and a half times more expensive than gold. Now about a third.

It’s a complete flip. So up top here. Two point three nine.

Three point five four. So it’s just over a third. And it was once two point four times.

And. Rarity. Eight ounces of silver for every one ounce of gold.

Twenty ounces of gold for every one ounce of platinum to be found on mining. There’s 20 times the production of gold in a year. Then there is roughly 19 point whatever.

Then then platinum. So platinum is 160 times rarer than silver. That is a super rare metal with unique properties.

And if I just go back to the platinum chart, we see this having an upside move. But that the biggest beneficiaries of that are the nations I’ve mentioned. Canada, Australia scratching around for some.

America got some, but they make up less than 20 percent of that metal. This is South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia. So, you know, real stalwarts of the stability spectrum that are in upside targets.

Yeah, I can draw the setup for you. So for those that want to stay in precious metals, don’t like my message, have a problem with being long a dollar against the Korean one, for example. You can pivot some of your investment into the platinum space.

This is a monthly chart, by the way. It’s a long setup and it’s the first in a new trend. This is why we think big overperformance in platinum.

So couldn’t we couldn’t we have said the same thing back in what is that, 2021, when we broke out of that consolidating triangle there? So here’s what can happen technically. So it’s a good question. It’s called the return move.

You have such a huge falling wedge with such a history of bearishness. And so many skinted out minds that are really battling the first sign of strength, it’s quite possible you get a lot of forward booking of pricing and you get a pullback. A return move to the falling wedge after the break.

By the way, the spill out the bottom of the wedge, which we call a type two falling wedge when you have so much negativity. So selling there, brutal sell off, selling for a sustained period across here, that’s three times. You never fully made it to the other side of the wedge.

You had a half move. We’ve got a splitter line here. You then kind of got there, then all hell broke loose March 2020.

I don’t need to tell you what happened there. You get that absolute spill, snapback rally into the wedge and you finally broken it out. So you often get a test one way inside of falling wedge.

Technically, it happens a lot and oil did that as well. So not only did we call $67 oil to be single digit oil, we said the rebound is going to take you well through a hundred at the time that it happened. And this is the same for platinum.

So the difference is platinum has been coiling whilst oil ran up to $129 and is now looking soft because it’s a consumer based thing. And you’ve got a very rare metal that you just can’t conjure up. There’s no printing platinum.

There’s no quickly opening a platinum mine and getting big flows either. It is really rare. Meaningful platinum mines are small and a lot in South Africa, they’re old.

They’re old. The well gotten gains are done. Zimbabwe and Russia, wow.

I mean, it’s a tough ask to get any, there’s no elasticity in supply here. You’re just going to have to bid more and want it more than the next guy because there’s only so much coming. And this is a big setup.

So it could be the big mover in spite of maybe a firmer dollar because it’s such a small market. If you need it, you have to pay for it. And it does have an industrial element like silver, but I think that industrial element is very small.

Everything about platinum market is very small and you might get a bit of a monetized, but this is cheaper than gold and rarer than gold. And it’s monetizable. And I think you could hold the entirety of the world’s platinum supply in like a 1500 square foot house or something like that.

It’s not that much. Very rare metal, very rare metal. It’s in the platinum group.

Palladium falls under that as well, which has been smashed. So the entire platinum group has been smashed, but palladium had a huge run at the expense of platinum. Now there’s another thing, Porsche headlines, by the way, small, it sounds like I’m going completely left field here.

Porsche is committing 800 million, I don’t know if it was euros, dollars equivalent, who was reporting the article, to go back to make internal combustion engines and cool engines again. So there’s this kind of, hey, this battery thing really did some serious damage. You’ve got to think of the Porsche Taycan, which is a beautiful car, super awesome inside, but it committed to this battery tech that if you have to replace it will cost 50,000 if it stops, you know, and the mileage reduces over time.

So those things have fallen through the floor in resale, done massive damage to the brand. They’re going back to making some ICE engines again. Now, the original play was people sold platinum for palladium because of the pivot to clean energies on the catalytic converters.

So one of the big things of the industrial uses was catalytic converters. So on the entire going green, platinum was destroyed a second time and the beneficiary was palladium during that period. It was substituted and palladium was actually a lot cheaper at one point, then went way more expensive because of demand and the fact that it was now being utilized and was needed for these things.

It might be worth bringing up the palladium chart because it’s in deep trouble and it’s falling off immensely. And if you then get a little bit of a washback, some of that substitution and play will also go away. I’m just going to hide all my lines because it’s absolute chaos, but we did a head and shoulders in that.

I won’t explain where, but at one point when platinum was, you know, $2,300. Platinum was $2,300 in 2007. Palladium was $357.

Palladium then ran up at one point and hit a high of 3.3. Again, washed out really down, down, down. We had a head and shoulders target there. Don’t want to talk too much about it.

It’s a very small metal, but a pump up and a dump and it looks like it’s basing. So you’ve actually had the whole platinum group now get smashed. But when this ran up like that, it was eating platinum’s dinner.

So platinum’s had a double smash. It got killed by its own brother in the family group first, and then all uses got killed again and it got knocked down again. So when that eventually bottoms for such a rare metal, there is a case to be made that platinum could be super interesting and very strategic as well, given its rarity.

So, yeah, we’ve spoken about a lot. I’ll show you an equity miner that we said might have a rest. It opened today.

All a miner, a gold miner that we were in. It’s in an upside HVF. It had a beautiful little squeeze inside of a squeeze.

You essentially could have got in on that level. We spoke about it in our community. It’s a community find credit to the HVF community.

And that’s a first target. This is another one with overperformance. So maybe some miners are going to play a bit of catch up, even if gold treads water, but it just doesn’t come all the way back down to 2K, like some people have been thinking or 1.8 and all of that.

A lot of accountants, they’re so jaded by the bear markets and the length that all valuations on miners are worked out on terrible gold prices. Gold could just stay where it is and people have to fix their spreadsheets and you could get that start to get that metal mining reval that could be on the cards. That doesn’t mean this will be the heart of the bull market, but it could certainly be a degree of green shoots.

And this set up for 10 when you could have had it at 389. That’s a big move. I think it rests here.

No metal second interim on the open of today in the US markets, which is still trading. And this is typically where we expect a pullback on the dash line. And then target is up top here.

So we’ve been long this for a while. It had quite a deep pullback to our access line and then it’s been nothing but good stuff. And maybe a little bit of a pullback before it goes there on gold reasserting or a minor rewriting and gold just standing still.

So there’s some miners that have great set up. All this and more you find in our community, great community set up and happy to share now that it’s triggered to others to keep an eye on it. And we’re saying north of 1016 and we won’t close in full.

We expect more and we have an overperformance method to stay. So we’ve shown you a minor, we’ve shown you platinum, we’ve shown you how wrecked the debt market is and how burned people must be and reserve assets. There’s not that many around.

And gold is your inflation reserve asset. We’ve made the case that taxes and tariffs on energy is highly inflationary. It’s highly inflationary in production.

And then to place a production tariff on it because it’s come from the wrong country is highly inflationary. And to reboard manufacturing where you have higher labor costs in the U.S. is highly inflationary if you want to replace the degree that you offshored your workshop to China. Everything in that is inflationary.

That sees buying power go down. That sees interest rates stubbornly needing to go high. That speaks of wrecked consumer disinflationary stagflation.

And we actually refer to as hyper stagflation because it is worldwide synchronized now, unlike the 70s where you would have had China largely out of the macroeconomy, other nations that were not plugged into globalization in the 70s when we had the stagflation are now going to be affected. So you have a worldwide stagflation, which I’ve also referred to as the inverse Goldilocks effect, which means you can pump any amount of liquidity you like, assets to the moon, everybody buying new cars every 18 months, houses to the moon, stock market to the moon, no inflation. Now it’s assets down, down, down.

All those with leverage, financially leveraged, because of the death markets, because of interest rates going down, of what’s the crazy car markets for exotics, you know, the Ferrari Purasunway, which is kind of a weird looking four by four, it’s half a million dollars before you really did a full spec on it. These sort of things pick them up when the overextended have to sell, buy your good stuff, be one of the guys in gold and cash equivalents like platinum and cash in bank. You can buy all sorts of stupid things that other people have been chasing up in a hyper and cars on assets, even the investment cars, dodgy assets.

You’re going to see commercial crash, property crash, rates stubbornly high, jobs, losses, bankruptcies. It sounds like I’m the doomsday fairy, but I have real motivation for it. You had a Goldilocks boom.

I went into the property business and exploited that and did famously well as a result of that, doing full development sites for the buy to let investment community. We went from nothing to, you know, because of the trend, catching the correctness of the trend. And everyone told me, no, 89, 90 property crashed.

It was nine years later. And I’m going, it’s about a pump in the UK. It’s going to keep pumping.

And then seven and eight came. And that was the beginning of a major depression. In truth, it was a depression.

And the global world is pivoted now between highly indebted to super highly indebted. You have a wall of refinance rollover debt that is between seven and nine trillion that Trump has to do before he spends a cent. And you have budgets that are designed to spend twice what you get in.

So first refinance the nine trillion that Yellen was putting on short debt all in time to fall on the 25th, the new president, which makes you think about whether the election was really in doubt or whether that was planned, because they love to crash the economy. They love an economic crash on the centre right political parties. It’s George Bush Senior, George Bush Junior, you name it, they do it.

So I’m seeing economic hardship, just like we called boom in the Greenspan era, but warned there’s going to be a real hangover to pay for. So we’re not always dark. We’re not always doomers.

But that is where you’re at. So I wish everyone good fortune in all of this. Play safe, play defence when everyone else is doing attack.

Play as if your income is about to be halved or you might lose your job or one of your earners if you’re a couple. Accumulate gold and silver. Be prepared to take it off grid.

They’re coming with tokenisation. They’re going to want to know all your wealth so that they can tax you out of it and revert everybody to serfdom for a technological Bolshevik communism. That is going to be surveillance.

And Elon and Trump are the escalators of the digital realm. They’re here. That’s their goal.

They were planned. It’s the agenda they’re given. It’s the normalisation of crypto.

It’s the mainstreaming of crypto. It is, oh, by the way, to stop the bad immigrants coming in from Mexico and Canada. We’ve got to do this biometric digital ID so that next time you vote, we never have a stolen election again.

The guys are going to eat it from the centre right where they wouldn’t have taken it from the left. That’s where I stand. And, you know, there’s quite a job in protecting yourself from all of this.

And that’s our speciality of our community. Follow on the YouTube channel, The Market Sniper and book a call if you want to chat to us a little more about building wealth in reset times, because that’s what we’re facing. Yeah, fantastic, Francis.

Is it cynicism or is it realism? I’ll let you guys decide. Let me know in the comments down below. I’ll have the links to all of your socials, Francis.

Thank you so much for coming on. And again, I’d like to remind you guys and encourage you to check out our good partners over at ITM Trading, whether you want to buy gold, silver or even platinum, book a call with them and see what best works with you. It’s totally free.

You’ve got nothing to lose by just booking a call and there’s no commitment necessary. And so with all that said, I’ve got to thank you guys for watching. Like and subscribe so you don’t miss an episode.

Write Go Francis Go if you agreed with Francis’ analysis. If you disagreed with anything, do let me know. I do read the comments.

And finally, check us out on Substack at capitalcosm.substack.com to get uncensored, ad-free and early access to all of my videos. So with all that said, thank you guys for watching again. Francis, thank you for coming on and I will see you in the next episode.

Bye y’all.