Why It’s Happening & What’s Next (Uncut) 04-16-2025

‘I’ve Never Seen This in Gold Before’: Why It’s Happening & What’s Next | Gary Wagner

Welcome back, I’m Jeremy Safran. Last week saw intense volatility across global markets, but amid the uncertainty, gold quietly delivered its strongest weekly performance in five years, surging past $3,240 an ounce before easing slightly here. Now, investors are now asking, is this a beginning of something much larger in terms of a move? And my guest today has been remarkably accurate in calling these moves all year.

He’s been tracking gold’s breakout, the shifting correlations in the dollar and the bond market, and the technical patterns most investors are missing. In fact, over the weekend, he texted me and said, Jeremy, I’ve been doing this for a very long time, and I’ve never seen anything quite like this. And he then went on to say, there’s more than meets the eye.

That’s why we had to bring him back on today’s show. Gary Wagner, of course, joins us. He’s the editor of thegoldforecast.com and a veteran technical analyst who’s been charting gold for decades right here at Kitco News.

Gary, great to see you. Great to see you, and exciting days for gold. Last week, we saw something we’ve really never seen before with the tremendous decline, and then the subsequent ascent to new record highs.

This is what a gold trader wishes for, and we’re seeing it. I’m not happy as to the reason, but with gold, we rarely are because gold moves higher with uncertainty, and boy, there is some uncertainty in the environment right now, the economic environment. Yeah, absolutely.

Okay, well, then let’s start up and pick up where that text left off. You said the move in gold was something you’ve never seen before. It didn’t just touch a new high.

I mean, it exploded past $3,200. What exactly is different about the setup here, Gary, and what in the charts really triggered that reaction from you? Well, if you pull up a chart, what I’m looking at is a four-hour, short-term Henkin Ashi chart. The difference between this type of chart and a candlestick chart is how it fixes the open.

In a candlestick chart, the open is the opening price, high, low, and closing price. In a Henkin Ashi, the open is fixed as the midpoint of the prior candle, and so what you get is an average, and that’s why it smooths everything out, and you can see that when we look in history, you typically get, even as the market moves higher, you get spurts of ascent and then small corrections, like two steps forward, one step back, two steps forward, one step back, and so this is typically what we see in a market that’s moving higher. Here, right around the 25th of March, we really saw it take off, but I have very rarely, if ever, seen a scenario in which we had this many large green candles, and let me explain why that is so significant.

In a Henkin Ashi, you look for two things. One, the absence of lower wicks, because as a marketplace begins to lose its trend, and realize the best thing this type of chart does is display in a very graphic way the strength of a trend, and so when you have these lower wicks on the way up on green candles or upper wicks on the way down, it tells you the trend is losing momentum. When you have small body candles, as you have here, the trend is not that strong, and so if you look, we’ve got all of these consistent Henkin Ashi candles on a four-hour basis.

This is over the three days where we saw gold move tremendously. Began with a Doji candle, open and close being the same right here, and no lower wicks, and huge body size up until the end of the week, and then this is what we’ve seen on Monday and Tuesday, and so I’ve never seen this many concurrent green Henkin Ashi candles, and to give you an example, I can pull this back far, but you see what I mean. Even during a time when gold is going up, it’s not parabolic, and this is how a parabolic chart looks in this format, a Henkin Ashi format, and that’s exciting because that tells me that the best thing we can hope for in terms of gold moving higher is a sideways market.

In other words, you get this big spurt up, then you have a period of consolidation in which gold builds a base at this new level. What you don’t want to see is a really strong hard up and then a really strong correction immediately. When you get this sideways action, that’s the healthiest thing you can see for a market that you believe is going to go higher.

However, it confirms that we are seeing gold build a base above $3,200, $3,244 on a Henkin Ashi, and if we convert this, give me one second, you’ll see the difference. This is a standard candlestick chart, so you see we’ve got big spurts, we do have days in which gold closed below it, and although it is a parabolic move, and especially if we move to a daily, you’ll see that, but it is certainly not as impressive as this, and that’s what got me really, really aware that we could be witnessing more in the future. This trend is not over by any stretch of the imagination according to these charts.

Right, right. So, I guess we’re looking at the beginning of a new leg higher here then? Well, right now, the best thing we could see after the kind of move we witnessed is consolidation. Like you get right here, the market moves up, it gives back a little bit, but you see it’s sideways, and that’s a market that is testing a new level that it has not been at either ever or for a while before returning to the bullish demeanor.

Here is the correction that we saw when we saw gold come down hard for three days. And that’s the other thing that impressed me. The move down was incredible.

I think it was $52 followed by an $82 decline and then another $50 decline. And you had that here, and then the ascent totally took out the tops, went to new all-time record highs, and rather than coming in Monday morning or Sunday in Australia and selling off, it’s trading sideways. That is impressive.

So, I mean, are you seeing any fresh resistance there? I mean, I talked to a couple of analysts and they thought maybe there was some exhaustion here, but it doesn’t really look like what you’re talking about. You mentioned that new base at $3,000. Are we looking at these Fibonacci targets towards $34, $36 range? Is there a new technical ceiling in sight? I will give you where I definitely have to have updated my upper-level target based on what we’re seeing.

Right. Right now, we are in uncharted territory. We’ve never been here before.

So I do have a technique to forecast where I believe it will go and how high it might get. And it’s a 30 to 60-day timeline. But right now, you can see that gold’s trading modestly higher, yesterday modestly lower.

But if you consider what we are looking at, 4th of February, tariffs go into effect, and we see a slow and methodical climb, and below it, we have moving averages, 20-day in purple, 50-day, which is the most important indicator in terms of a moving average to determine whether or not gold is in a short-term bullish or bearish trend. And what’s impressive is we had a very strong correction, as I said, 50, 80, 50, right? But look at where the lows came in at, just below, and look at where the close came in, above the 50-day. It says that there was no technical chart damage, if anything, it stayed above that.

Then on Tuesday, we have that doji, and remember, a doji is one in which you have balance between the bullish faction and the bearish faction, where neither faction is able to muster the momentum to move it higher or lower, and that’s where you get an open and close that are identical or one or two ticks apart, followed by this strong update. Of course, this occurred on the 9th, when the administration announced that he was raising tariffs to 145% with China, and I also believe the 90-day pause. So we know what that did to U.S. equities, and we saw what that did to gold.

It took gold from $3,000 to $3,250, a $250 move in a three-day time period, and that’s what really got my attention, absolutely. Okay, so you’re coming back here. I mean, that base that you talked around, $3,000, how important is it here? Because if you flip to the downside risk, if we do see a retracement, I mean, is that kind of the critical area where bulls need to hold? The 50-day is.

Now, this is also, if we measure from the low that came in last half February, $28.90, up to this top, and then this correction, it was a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is a deep but acceptable correction, and when I say acceptable, you can have a correction that deep and still, on a technical basis, be at a full bullish demeanor. It hasn’t caused any major technical chart damage. A break below that would, on a closing basis.

This is the interim term, 100-day, and look at how far below the 200-day is. It’s sitting at 2,700. There’s good distance between these, and they are widening.

So whenever you have them coming together or closer, that is not what you want to see, but you want to see those levels expand in terms of the difference between the pricing. Can you chart it into the future too, Gary? I mean, the next ceiling there, what is it, 3,400? Well, here’s what I’m looking at. When you have uncharted territory, and let me move this to a standard candlestick chart, I’m using what’s called a Fibonacci extension, and this is what I’m looking at in terms of realistic targets on the technical basis over the next 30 to 60 days.

And that is at minimum 3,300, more likely 3,400, and as high as $3,500 per ounce. Now, I realize that’s conservative compared to what some other analysts are saying, but those who know me know I’m very conservative, and this is a number I’ve never projected gold to go to, and that’s the exciting stuff. I really believe that when the dust settles, we could see gold at $3,400 to $3,500 per ounce.

Wow. What a time, Gary. We got to shift over because one of the biggest macro surprises is the dollar weakness.

I mean, the DXY is falling sharply even as long-term treasury yields are rising. Normally, they kind of move together. What’s your take on the dislocation, and how does it factor into your gold outlook? Well, we know that there is a 100% negative correlation.

A dollar weakness is gold strength. And we know that the dollar fell tremendously as the whole tariffs were announced and began to be implemented. When we consider that back in the middle of February, we’re still at about 107.

The dollar broke recently through 100, and when we go back historically, the last time the dollar got to this level was July of 2023. And here’s what technicians are concerned with. The dollar is going down because of the tariffs, unquestionably, but a heartbreak below this area, and then there becomes a level where there really isn’t any technical support till about 97 or even 93.

And if you look to see where it went to, these lows that came in in 21, May of 2021, were at 89. A break below the price point that it’s currently at is a perilous area because there’s really no technical levels that will provide hard support. And that’s what is most alarming when we look at the dollar.

And as long as the tariffs are being implemented, it’s going to continue to put pressure taking the dollar lower. Yeah. Finally, I mean, for active traders here, what’s the move? I mean, sounds like we’re in this momentum territory.

Is this a confirmation signal for adding to positions or a moment to kind of stay cautious and wait? Well, my sense is typically what you want to do is buy a dip. Yeah. So, for example, if you’re looking at what happened in March, the market goes from roughly 2,900 up to about 3,080.

And then it dips, not much, but to 3,040. You get a slight pullback. You get a slight pullback here.

Typically, the markets will rally and then they will correct, whether it’s profit taking, squaring of positions. We’re not seeing that right now. We are seeing consolidation.

Any sort of correction to me is an opportunity to initiate long positions if you’re neutral. If you’re long, you want to maintain your position and buy on dips. The key level that you want to make sure the gold stays above right now is about $3,115.

That is the 21-day simple moving average. And the other thing you want to see is gold stay above $3,190, which is the prior top that occurred on the Wednesday, April 2nd. Other than that, the healthiest thing we could see right now is sideways action.

Is gold forming a base at these new record levels and then moving up from there? And as I said, I believe that there is a decent probability that they’re going to move substantially higher. That’s what’s exciting right now. Yeah, absolutely.

We’ll continue to watch it. You’ve got to keep texting me over the weekend, my friend. Make sure we get this to the viewers first.

Gary Wagner is of thegoldforecast.com, which you should be checking out, by the way. There’s some great analysis there. Always great to have your charts and your insight, my friend.

Thanks for this. Thanks so much for having me. And this is a great day to be involved in gold, a great week, and a great month.

This is the time when gold traders have the ability to shine, and that’s good news for all of us. Yeah, amen to that. Well, we’ll hope for that sideways action here.

Thank you for watching. I’m Jeremy Safran. If this gold and this move in gold is only just the beginning, you won’t want to miss what’s ahead.

Be sure to like this video. Subscribe to our channel. Stay with us right here at Kitco News.

We’ll see you next time. Take care.