Fed Insiders Drop KEY Gold and Silver INTEL (Uncut) 03-22-2025

Fed Insiders Drop KEY Gold and Silver INTEL | Keith Weiner

Silver and gold have always been a bit different. In a certain sense, the question everybody should be asking is, why are there two monetary metals, gold and silver? Normally, these things, it’s winner take all. In the ancient world, it would take thousands of years.

But shouldn’t one emerge as the winner and then the other fall off? You’re watching Capital Cosm. My name is Danny. Today’s guest is Keith Wiener from Monetary Metals.

Keith, thank you so much for making time to come on the show, my friend. Thanks for having me. How are you? Pretty good, pretty good, especially considering the gold price recently.

Well, I should say, for the average person, a rising gold price is a fairly foreboding event. But for us gold investors, well, all things being equal, we may as well profit off of it. So how have you been, Keith? I’ve been doing okay.

It’s been a busy, crazy, busy time for us. As I said, I tweeted a couple of weeks ago that, I remember it was last week when the gold price first broke 3,000. I was like, okay, sounds like great news for gold people to make a profit.

But the only way to make a profit is by selling some of your gold. Right. Except with monetary metals, you can keep your gold.

You have your cake and eat it too. You can keep your gold and make money on it by getting a return for selling it. And I think people are starting to appreciate that more.

Gold price going up, clearly it can go up a lot more. We love to draw a graph of showing the dollar price falling. And of course, the gold price in dollar terms hit around even number of $3,000.

The price of the dollar in gold is not quite at around even number. But there’s a really big one psychologically coming, which is 10 milligrams. The dollar is currently 10.4 milligrams.

I see. So that’s like a psychological focal point? If anybody were focused on it, which I don’t think anybody is. So anyway, when it happens, we’ll post a graph of it and show, here’s the dollar since all these decades ago.

And now, of course, when they created the Fed in 1913, a dollar was 1,500 milligrams. It’s now down to 10 and change, 10.4. So 1,000 to 1. No, 100 to 1, more than 100 to 1 drop. Yeah.

It’s 90%, over 90 plus percent. Over 99%. 99%, yeah.

And so people are cheering it because they’re looking at the price of gold in dollars. But when you look at the price of the dollar, which is the money we all use, or currency at least, falling, it’s not so cheery anymore. It is foreboding.

Yeah. My good friend, Francis Hunt, he made this analogy the other day. Gold is simply at the same altitude that it’s always been.

It’s just that all these other currencies are parachuting off the plane, and they’re looking up like, oh, look how high gold is. But gold has still remained the same altitude throughout this entire time. So I want to open the floor over to you here, Keith.

Given everything that’s going on in the world of gold and finance and economics and all that other jazz, what is most topical on your radar screen at the moment? I think the story is getting a little bit old and it’s circulating around, but the flow of gold into the United States from the rest of the world, right? So it’s come from the UK, it’s come from Switzerland, it’s come from Asia. And there’s a certain irony to it, right? When gold is flowing out of the COMEX warehouses, the gold people say that’s bullish, and now that gold is flowing into the COMEX warehouses, that’s bullish. Okay, well, pick one, but not both.

But there’s been a lot of theories, I’ll just say that, as to why the gold is coming in. One of them is that, of course, there’s a lot of questions around, does the Treasury have the gold 8,000 tons that they say they have? So one theory says they don’t have the gold anymore, and now the DOGE is about to audit the Treasury and go to Fort Knox. Then they have to frantically fly it back in, repatriate it before this is discovered.

Other theories about Trump is making America strong again, he’s bringing the gold back. As is usually the case in the gold market, the reality is much more prosaic. But it’s important to understand.

And that is the big traders, right? So if you’re a retail investor, and you buy some gold, you buy some stocks, maybe you buy some crypto, whatever, you’re hoping for a price gain. I think, and with stocks, maybe dividends. And, you know, it’s easy to assume that all the players in the market are similarly situated.

Assume that the banks are betting on the price action like everybody else. And that’s, of course, why the crypto people think, oh, the banks can have bitcoins reserved. That it’s just a bet, right? So banks raise capital by borrowing money, you borrow money to bet on bitcoin.

And if bitcoin goes up, you win. If bitcoin goes down, well, I don’t talk about that. You’re out of business.

Banks aren’t in that business. Yeah, they do have proprietary trading desks. They will make Nimble come in and make a trade and get in and get out like everybody else.

But the main business of a bank is to make spreads, which are small and therefore boring. And so the spread that we talk about all the time, the gold basis, to arbitrage that spread, to profit from that spread, you buy spot and you simultaneously sell future. And you can make, you know, 4% per annum.

So, you know, Samsung on the order of $10 a month. So if you’re doing, if you’re selling forward to June, you know, $20 or something. Not huge amounts of money, pretty boring, not very exciting, but banks can do this with enormous leverage because they’re banks.

So if you can borrow a billion dollars, put that trade on, you know, that keeps the trade desk employees employed, that makes some profits for the bank. You know, and everything’s fine. So buy spot, sell future.

Okay, fine. In COVID, this trade kind of blew up in their faces because you couldn’t, so spot is London. You’re buying physical metal in London.

Forward or futures is New York. You’re selling futures in New York. If you have to deliver, as they discovered during COVID, it requires, I mean, they knew you put the gold on an airplane, but they discovered in COVID that maybe the airplanes don’t fly because, you know, these go on passenger airplanes for the most part.

You know, Brinks doesn’t have a fleet of aircraft. There’s not that much volume. Gold flying around goes in the belly of a regular, you know, plane and cargo hold.

If the planes aren’t flying, you can’t deliver the gold and now you suddenly have a big, you know, failure to deliver thing. There’s not too much remade of it from a monetary system, a dollar, price of gold. This doesn’t really affect any of that.

However, if you’re the trader and you’re violating your contract, you could be in big trouble. So the problem now is the threat of tariffs. And with 2020 still fresh in people’s minds, the risk, you know, officers at the banks are looking at this and saying, you’ve got to move the gold into the US.

If you get it through the window before the tariffs slam down, then no matter what may happen, you can deliver if you need to. And the banks are equally okay having physical gold in London versus New York. It doesn’t really matter that much.

So, you know, the migration begins. Gold is flowing from all kinds of places because there’s a spread there. That’s all it is.

And to make that spread, you now have to have it inside the US in case there’s tariffs. Now, I hope there’s not going to be tariffs on gold and silver. I mean, I’m not a fan of tariffs on consumer goods for that matter, but there’s whatever the rationale might be to protect manufacturers of certain consumer goods, that rationale does not exist on gold.

It’s not a consumer good. This is a financial market, and if you want to tariff it 25%, you’ll simply destroy the futures market, force it to move offshore. So I imagine jurisdictions like Dubai are waiting patiently to see, hey, it’s just coming our way, you know? If the US renders itself non-viable, like India or Vietnam, you know, you have a big tariff, but just kill it.

But it explains why all the gold’s coming in. It’s kind of a boring, prosaic kind of explanation. Spread traders are de-risking.

Okay, it is what it is. And if tariffs are serious on this stuff, then we’ll see what happens. That’s one thing that’s on my mind.

Obviously, $3,000 gold being on my mind, and to your point, that’s kind of a scary, dark scenario, is the world repudiating the dollar? Absolutely not. Are people repositioning a little bit at the margins right now? Yes, they are. And they’re starting to think about what does the post-dollar world might look like? Nobody has a clue, and nobody has a path to get there.

Well, monetary metals does, but leaving that aside. And so they’re starting to think, I want to own a little bit more gold and a little bit less of this, you know, world’s reserve currency. Is that a good thing? Well, not for the vast majority of people.

It has a capital in dollars, including productive businesses, the companies that make the stuff that we all rely on, like food, energy, computers, video cameras. You know, there’s an erosion of their capital going on, which is ultimately going to make us all poorer. It’s very interesting, especially as it relates to the outflow from the LBMA into the COMEX.

If we’re to attribute this to fear of tariffs, what happens when that fear is alleviated? I.e., if we do ever get clarity that gold and silver will be exempt in some form from these tariffs, should we expect to see a reverse in the flow of gold? I.e., from the COMEX in New York back to the LBMA in London, if that were indeed the case? Probably, and probably slowly, for two reasons. One, there isn’t necessarily a big rush to move back to London. I’m not sure what the urgency would be to do that once it’s in New York.

It’s like, okay, you leave it there. But over time, as trades come on and trades come off, it’ll probably tend to migrate back. But in the back of your mind, if you’re a risk officer at a bank, you have to think, okay, what’s the term when you’re playing hearts or spades? Once spades have been breached, once a spade has been played, it’s now out there, right? Anybody can play a spade after that.

What could come with tariffs in the future? Can there really be any certainty that because we don’t get a gold tariff today, can anyone really be certain that we’re not going to get a gold tariff next month or next year? There are certain things that are just best off. This is kind of an infamous thing on sitcoms or whatever. A couple is quarreling, or maybe a dramatic movie.

A couple is quarreling, and suddenly one says, well, if you do that, then I’m not going to love you anymore. Boom. Those words are said.

They can’t be unsaid. And now forever, there’s a cloud over that relationship forever. And that’s the danger with, maybe we’re going to tariff gold.

It’s out there. It’s not fully rescinded. So I’d imagine, we’ll see.

I could end up eating white words. Someone’s going to pull up this video in five years. See, Keith, you know you said.

But my guess would be that the inventory levels in New York, not necessarily in the comics. One of my big points, it’s like gold world, sort of should understand, but sometimes doesn’t appreciate. If you’re looking for great deals on gold and silver coins and bars from a company that you can trust, then you’ve got to check out the good folks over at Pimbex.

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There’s many, many, many, many vaults in the world. And there are many vaults in the U.S. that aren’t Comex vaults. So when you say the inventories are depleting, what you mean is in that small number of Comex vaults relative to the much larger world of vaults outside of Comex, there’s been a shift of gold from one to the other.

My guess would be that, you know, gold held in the U.S. probably elevated for a very long period of time as memories of this linger and the threat of there could be a tariff on this in the future. You know, what is the risk of that? And how do you assess that? And, you know, if you’re a bank and you’re putting on a billion dollars worth of position, is that a risk you really just care to ignore? It’s OK. Let’s have the gold, some of the gold in the U.S. And then, you know, more of the gold in London is ready to be, you know, flown.

So they’re going to probably work on their, you know, business continuity plans or disaster recovery plans or whatever. How fast could you move, you know, your gold position from London to New York if you had to? So one of the problems people say, oh, the Bank of England is running out of gold. That’s nonsense.

What they’re running out of is employees and labor bandwidth to shift the gold out. You know, if you’ve ever been to a big vault, and I’ve been to several, they’re very prosaic. You know, all this story is sad about it, but you get there, and it’s like, OK, you go down, you know, the elevator or whatever to the lower, usually it’s almost always underground.

And then, you know, there’s vault doors and electronic security systems, whatever. You get inside, and it’s like concrete floors, steel racking, pallets, and, you know, bricks lying around. The brick happens to be worth over, you know, $1.2 million, but basically gold bricks.

And there’s not a lot of employees to stand around watching the gold bricks. They don’t do anything. They just sit there, right? And then, you know, to get something in or out, everything’s done with dual controls.

So it’s, you know, two employees required to move it, and then the employee has to sign off that he’s counted it and verified it. Another employee has to sign off that he’s audited with the first one. You know, there’s a lot of checks and balances because these things are so valuable.

You don’t just have employees throwing these things around and having them leave without all these layers. So you have a couple of employees essentially in the monitoring room with, you know, watching the cameras. You have a couple of employees with physical security.

You have a couple of them moving it, a couple counting and auditing whenever it comes in and out. You know, so you’ve got the better part of a dozen employees involved in the operation. And now if all of a sudden everybody and their uncle wants to move bars out in quantity, you’ve got a bandwidth limitation.

It’s like an entire crowded, you know, imagine a movie theater that had 100,000 people in it and one exit door and someone says fire. Well, you can’t get out very quickly. It’s just a bandwidth limitation at the door and that’s the problem in the vault.

So those guys are, I don’t even know if they do overtime, maybe union contracts and whatever, and they work their shift and at five o’clock they’re done and you don’t necessarily have a night shift because you never needed it because these spikes in demand are occurring frequently. It’s not worth staffing up for a temporary spike. You know, you have all these sort of logistics type problems.

Anyways, I don’t know what it seemed either. I guess my point is that neither here nor there and people need to realize that this stuff doesn’t matter that much. I mean, if you’re in this business, this matters a lot.

This is life and death. To everyone else, life goes on. Is this going to, you know, drive the gold price up to 50,000? Is the US government revaluing gold? You know, if you take the total national debt of 36 trillion and divide by the 8,000 tons, you end up with, somebody saw the math the other day.

It’s $57,000 an ounce or whatever it works out to. No. But right now, you know, there’s a problem getting gold through the bandwidth.

They’re worried about tariffs. I don’t think they’re going to tariff gold, but that’s a political prediction and that could be wrong. Hopefully it’s not, but it could be.

Do you think they revalue gold to fair market value at least? Because they do have it and they’re not selling the balance yet at 42.22. Surely they would be incentivized to revalue it at some point, wouldn’t they? I just don’t think that they care. One of the points I’ve made, I don’t know if I just talked about this in an interview. I know I’ve written in a couple of articles about this.

You know, I’ve met any number of central bankers in my travels. You know, not the top, you know, the Jay Powell’s and the Janet Yellen’s. I haven’t met people at that level, but I’ve met one level down and two levels down.

They don’t think about gold. I had Danielle DiMartino Booth on my podcast. That was a year or two ago.

And we were talking, you know, so she worked at the Dallas Fed, I think for nine years and wrote a book called Fed Up. And so I asked her about, you know, do they think about gold, you know, in sort of the light of the price, you know, manipulation theory. And she said in her, all of her years at the Fed, nobody higher up ever asked for any kind of study or any kind of analysis on gold whatsoever.

Never came up in meetings, meeting minutes, discussion. Nobody asked the staffer for a report on it. And so she interviewed or met with Joseph Wang, who was at the New York Fed.

He wrote a book, I don’t remember the title of this book now, which is a pretty good one on the mechanics of the system. And he’s called Fed guy on Twitter. She said she spoke to him and he said the same thing at the New York Fed.

No one even asked about gold. So I just think they ignore it. It’s kind of like Ron Paul asking Ben Bernanke, okay, you say gold is useless.

And Bernanke says, yeah. Okay, why do you still have it? And Bernanke’s just kind of choking on it. He’s like, well, you know, let’s do a tradition.

Or I forget what he said, something like that. It’s kind of true. It’s like, it’s there.

You know, it’s not going to go away. It would be too much of a political hot button to try to get rid of the gold. You know, it would generate scrutiny and public outrage, all out of a port.

I was like, if you’re a politician, why would you take the career risk to say, get rid of it? Just let us sit there. They don’t care. They don’t think about it.

If you ask these people about gold, you know, they would respond or a Tesla engineer would respond if you said, where’s the carburetor? Like there’d be just this pause and a slight frown of like, wait, what? Why don’t you ask me about bell-bottom jeans and fuzz boxes for my electric car? Like lava lamps. You know, we’re past that now for 50 years, aren’t we? But that would be kind of their take on it. And I don’t think they care about it.

I don’t think, and I don’t think we’re valuing, I mean, sure they can mark the accounting to $3,000 to nails. By the way, the law of assets in accounting that goes back to Luca Pacioli in the Renaissance in Italy, you keep assets on the books at the lower of either current market price or acquisition price. That’s, you know, now if something’s super, super, super liquid, maybe there’s a justification in marking and I don’t want to get into the philosophy of accounting, but that’s how accounting is done, especially if you’re not planning on selling it.

If it’s an asset that you purchased with the intention to sell, I guess you’d be marking it daily. You could if you wanted to. But whether they do or don’t market, my point is, what difference does that make to anything? It’s not like it gives them, you know, there’s sort of a variation of MMT that says, okay, if you market up to 3,000, look at all the free capital the Fed can print and hand over, you know, whatever that is, $2,950 of free capital times, you know, 8,000 times 32,000 ounces.

It’s MMT, right? Okay. You want to print more money to go spend more money and go do that. But the fact that you’ve changed the book value of the gold doesn’t, doesn’t legitimize that in any way.

But don’t you think there will come a time where they will have no choice but to care about gold? And is that time not getting closer? So right now, they, they’re in the same position that, that they’ve been, you know, all these decades, you know, during which the gold people, you know, been expecting hyperinflation, which is what they issue, their debt paper is what everyone else calls money. And I am very much a iconoclast. And then there are people who agree with me, but not very many.

When I say the dollar is not money. So I was invited to speak at a, or present a paper at a Austrian economics conference put on by a university, San Juan, you know, or King Juan Carlos in Madrid. And this is a very Austrian.

And if you know anything about it, this is the department run by Jesus Huerta de Soto, very famous Austrian school economist and everybody there is Austrians. And I had a very challenging, you know, thesis to present. Actually, the guy ahead of me had the same thing.

He said, only gold is money. You know, he had that quote from JP Morgan, you know, the rest is credit. And unfortunately, his presentation was mostly pictures of old, you know, interesting.

If you’re a new numismatic, you know, the gold crystal coin coined in Lydia and this Roman coin and that, you know, whatever. Anyways, at the end of his talk, they ripped him a new one and I’m just sitting here, you know, biting my tongue that I’m about to say the same thing, but in a different way. And I said, you know, what, what the issue is paper.

It’s, it’s credit. It’s a promise to pay. And they’ve made that promise to redeemable.

So it’s a promise to pay that says in the five print, we’ll never pay, but it’s still a promise to pay. It doesn’t become money just because they’re not paying it now. It’s credit.

And I said, you know, in every era, there’s a question hanging in the air, screaming out to be asked and answered. And so if you go back to the time of the Renaissance, you know, the question that Copernicus answered was, does everything orbit around the earth? Or is it really true that things orbit around the sun? And, you know, those days you could get burned at the stake for, for saying that that was heresy. You know, today that question is, is the dollar money.

So I said, okay, I’m going to give you a thought experiment. And you don’t owe me an answer. I’m just, I’m annoying American.

And tomorrow morning, I’m going to get on a plane and jet back home, but you owe yourselves an answer. And you owe yourself that answer with rigor. And that is, you know, here’s a picture of a 19th century bank teller window.

And at that time, you could have walked up with a $20 bill. It said no words. It didn’t require any written, any oral communication.

You just pass that bill through the little, you know, cagey thing in the, in the curve slot to the teller. And the teller would push you back a gold coin. And I had a, a, a bill and I had a gold coin to show.

And I was like, you’ve changed this for this. If the word for this piece of paper, it’s money. Then what’s the word for the gold coin? Dead silence.

I finished my talk. Nobody, you know, confronted me. I had two or three sort of ordinary questions about what they, did you say that was, or, you know, whatever.

And, you know, it could be because I persuaded them, which I don’t think it could be because they realized that I had put a great deal of thought into it. And if they had confronted me, they weren’t necessarily likely to come out, you know, looking like the winner in front of all the students that were there. So they, they didn’t say anything, but let me get away with that.

But anyways, right now, nobody thinks of gold as money. Everyone would say the dollar is money. You idiot.

Why can’t you understand what a fifth grader can understand? The dollar is money. Well, that puts the U S dollar masters in a very interesting position. Doesn’t it? Who doesn’t want more money? The demand for money is unlimited.

And so they use this to get away with what they do because the demand for what they emit is, you know, seemingly unlimited. Yeah. There’s a limit.

They won’t run into it one day. And when they do all hell’s going to break loose, but today’s not that day. So right now they seem to get away with it, with impunity.

And, you know, that’s just how the system is wired. And people need, and this is monastery metals, you know, vision. People need a, a graceful transition pass, you know, to go with having the whole system collapse.

Yeah. It will collapse one day. And yeah.

After that collapse, people will be using gold. But if it’s anything like the last time the world collapsed in four 76 AD, you didn’t dare show that you had any, it was valuable. It was so valuable.

You didn’t dare show anybody. You had it. Does it kill you for it? It was about a thousand years before civilization or more than that arguably before civilization and recovered to the level that had under the Romans.

So it’s not, not something to look forward to. It’s all going to collapse. That was going to be a horrific, I don’t know.

I don’t know if this is the direction you want to go in, but every time I think about collapse and when, when do they really run out of their exorbitant privilege? Yeah, they will run out. I am not saying that I’m not an MMT or a Keynesian saying, Oh yeah, you can do this forever to find through the economy. No, there’s a limit.

But I’m also a fan of Adam Smith who said there’s a great deal of ruin in the nation. It takes longer than you think that can has more kicks left in it. You know, then you would estimate or myself, you know, if you asked me in 2012, how much more time I thought we had, I said, five, seven years tops.

Well, 2019 is coming gone. Right. And, you know, here we still are talking about it.

There’s a lot of kicks left in the can. And, and, you know, we’re getting closer to the end, everything we’ve done. I mean, the response to COVID was to consume enormous amounts of capital, shut down production and subsidize consumption.

Well, that’s a winning formula if ever there was. Right. And then since then we’ve gone on a new normal.

So post, Oh, sorry, post financial crisis, 2008, we had a trillion dollar plus deficit. You know, post COVID it’s, you know, it’s been trillions. And, you know, it used to be every time they hit a new trillion dollar level in the public debt, it was like, Oh my God.

And we talked about it for months. Nowadays you lose track of it. You blink, you know, they have 35 trillion, blink 36 trillion.

And we’re pretty close to 37 trillion. And we’ll go through a couple of those in a year. So we’re getting closer and now tariffs.

It’s going to shut down trade. That’s going to force a lot of debtors into default, right? If you’re in the rest of the world, you borrow dollars to finance your business. Now, all of a sudden it becomes harder to sell stuff to the U S harder to get your hands on dollars.

There’s going to be default coming. And what is that going to do? Well, nothing good. Destroying, you know, businesses as COVID did, you know, left and right.

And then we give, you know, crony subsidies to the, you know, to a few major cronies. And, you know, that’s, it’s never, it’s never as good as it was. Where do you see gold going from here? It’s currently well over $3,000, $3,000 used to be.

And you and I talked about this before we hit record. It used to be the go-to one of the go-to lines for click baity YouTube titles back in the old days, i.e. a year ago, but now it’s a reality. Have we, have we hit the top or is there still more juice left? And especially if you look at your, I see you shaking your head here, Keith, I also want to add in there.

There’s barely any attention from the retail side of things. So yeah, I’ll let you unwind that whichever way you will go ahead. That’s a very funny bull market, right? It’s unloved, unstoried, not really talked about too much.

Nobody believes that. And part of it is we have a long, dark bear market, call it, you know, after the gold price peaked in August of 2011. So from mid 2011 through 2018, for sure, maybe arguably into 2019, this bear market, every time the price would blip time and time and time again, you know, the usual suspects would say, that’s it.

Rocket ship blasting off, going to the moon and the stars and beyond. And then I would do some analysis based on the basis. It’s not durable.

This blip is going to fade like all the others. And so I was right on that. And I got a lot of hate mail at the time, but now I get headlines.

Even Keith Weiner is bullish because I wasn’t for a long damn time. But, you know, there’s a reason why Pavlov’s experiment with the dogs worked. Right.

It’s because we do something consistently over and over and over again. And eventually it becomes, you know, works and, and the dog is trained. The bell means salivate and you’re going to get food.

So the bell, you know, when the price goes up, that means the price is going to go down. And that, so, so in the West, not, not including the middle Eastern worlds and Turkey and India and Asia, which are on a different perception than the West right now, but in the West, and particularly retail, they’re not buying it. They’re not believing it.

And so you’ve got certain central banks that are buying, but that’s not in itself big enough to really move the market. You know, the mines put out 3000 tons a year. There’s not 3000 tons of central bank buying.

You know, people would say, well, China, blah, blah, blah, maybe, but what was I going to say? Anyway, in the West, you know, in the coin shops, I think there’s more sellbacks than there is buying right now. Not so necessarily in the middle East, but you know, that’s what it is here at the moment. Now, how is this going to break? Either, either retail is going to prove to be right and the price is going to break down.

They’re going to say, see, we’ve indicated, you know, Pavlov rang the bell and I just knew there was going to be food coming. I knew there was going to be a drop or are they going to eventually realize, no, this is a whole new dynamic where people are turning to gold. New people are turning to gold.

There hadn’t been before people increasing allocations to gold. People held one or 2% of the portfolio. Now all three or 4%, it was a lot of things moving in the world.

You know, one way to say this, which are good for gold. Another way of saying is, which are bad for the economy and therefore credit. And therefore people turn to gold as the escape hatch from bad credit.

Who wants to be a creditor? When the, when the creditors are abusing the credit, that’s, that’s the world we’re in, right? So you look at tariffs and trade Wars, you look at hot Wars, all of which are bad things. People turn to gold. There’s a hedge against those bad things.

And I think it’s terrible. I think we’re continuing, you know, yes, I think there’ll be a correction. You know, nothing ever goes in a straight line, but I think we’re in a bull market.

That’s, that’s a durable one. And for different reasons, the 2009 to 2011, that’s also important to say, you know, 2009, it was this belief. Oh my God, look at all the money printing was positive.

Everything we all know money printing is going to equal skyrocketing inflation. Well, when the money printing did happen, but the skyrocketing of inflation did not happen. People realize their thesis was wrong.

And then we ran out of buying and that was it. And so, you know, gold went from just under 2000 to just over a thousand, almost 50%. The gears, you know, to do it and disbelief and whatever, because the money printing continued.

But eventually we got to, I think, a thousand and 40. After being at 1980. But interestingly, what had been the ceiling, a thousand bucks, free financial crisis now became the floor.

And, you know, once, once it hit a thousand 80, a thousand 40 kind of level, that was certainly held time to buy. If you, if you were there and, you know, so that’s the time. So I, I think we’re in a bull market now.

Absolutely. Isn’t another telltale sign that the silver price hasn’t risen yet. I mean, it has technically, but it’s still, well, well, it’s all time high.

Shouldn’t we expect to see a pretty big movement into silver price before we can safely say that we’ve wrapped up this precious metals bull market. Cause it’s a, from historic, historically speaking, the gold price opens is the opener. And the silver price is the closer is, is that true from your analysis? And number, number two, does that ring true to the end of the gold bull market? I mean, that was certainly true in 2011.

Silver price hit nearly 50 bucks in April. I think it was. And then the gold price took a few more months before I finally hit its peak in August.

And then that was it this time around. Silver obviously has a silver is nowhere near. It’s all time high and gold blew through its previous all time high by 50%.

So clearly something’s different. And as I said, we’re not in the same, Oh, buy the metals because of inflation. That was the trade in 2009, 2011.

I think the trade now is increasing distrust in the credit system and, you know, silver and gold have always been a bit different. In a certain sense, the question everybody should be asking is why is there two? Why are there two monetary metals, gold and silver? Normally these things, it’s winner take all. I mean, you know, in the ancient world, it takes thousands of years, but shouldn’t one emerge as, as the winner and then the other fall, fall off.

And, you know, if you look at the modern computer world, I mean, everything from an eight bit bite to TCP IP, internet protocol, everything is winner take all. And yet we have two metals. Why? Well, they must be doing something different.

So I’m from a school of, of economics that says money is the most marketable commodity. Marketability is, is the, is the measure of the bid offer spread. It’s the inverse of that.

The tighter the spread, the more marketable, because if you’re going to use this thing as an indirect medium, you know, for exchange, the spread is the loss you take to trade in and out of this good and money, you want money to be the least loss. So the market over time is selecting and reselecting and reselecting and trying to find what’s the most marketable. And gold is the most marketable, but for larger transactions, if you are a wage earner and you’re setting aside 10% of your weekly wage, the amount of gold you could get not only would be emotionally unsatisfying, it’d be a little fleck.

You know, let’s say your weekly wage is $500 and you’re putting $50 into precious metal. What’s $50 worth of gold. You know, one 60th of an ounce, right? I mean, half a gram is the tight, you know, you couldn’t put it in your pocket.

You’d lose it in the lint just about, but $60 worth silver, a couple of ounces, you know, and an ounce of silver is, you know, it’s a hand, almost a handful of silver, right? So silver has always been the go-to money for, for working people. And gold has always been, you know, capital asset class. And for working people, the issue is they’re under enormous pressures and have been for, you know, each, each thing that’s happened with the global financial crisis, you know, the zero interest rate response to it, you know, COVID, you know, these things have all kind of pushed down, you know, suppressed, you know, wages and, and working people.

And so they’re hurting and they don’t have huge amounts. You know, net of their monthly expenses, grocery prices have gone up a lot, et cetera. They don’t have a huge amount to put into savings.

They’re really struggling. And so you see silver not performing in the same way, other than that it’s an industrial commodity. And, you know, some would trade more like copper in this mode.

It’s more appropriate for day-to-day transactions, whereas gold is more so appropriate for large amounts of savings. Right. But what I’m trying to get at is if there’s different groups of people that are the traditional silver buyer versus the gold buyer, and the silver buyer has been sidelined because the labor market is, is under pressure, especially globally.

The gold buyer is trading off against other capital assets and capital assets have done very well. And therefore there’s plenty. And we look at crypto, right.

Cryptos, you know, Bitcoin shoots up to a hundred thousand, everybody who’s looking to lift their crypto position a little bit, they don’t necessarily want to buy fiat. They buy gold. So, you know, gold is, it’s a different group of people that are buying the gold versus the silver.

And, and that’s why, you know, gold is, keeps making new all-time highs every day. And silver is nowhere near, right. It would have to, to go up by what, 60, 70% in order to get back to an all-time high that it made in 1980.

I mean, this is old. And that’s not even controlling for inflation. Right.

That’s just nominal price. Right. And, you know, will that happen before the end? Yeah, it may.

But right now, silver is in a different place. I think, I think silver’s bullish, but not the same way gold is. So, we just published our gold outlook report, which we do every year.

And I don’t want to give away the price targets, but I said, okay, look, if gold gets to this level, then that means silver is, you know, to get to this level. And the silver level is, you’re gonna disappoint a lot of people. With the gold level, everyone’s gonna say, ah, you know, yeah, there’s a lot more juice there.

So, we’ll eventually flip and we’ll, silver outperform. Will we see a gold, silver ratio of 30 again? Maybe. I’m not seeing it in the data right now.

That’s for sure. Gotcha. Well, I think we’ve covered pretty much everything I had in line for us here, Keith.

Anything else you want to talk about before we sign off here? That’s all I can think of at the moment as well. Those are the major happenings. Major happenings.

Cole, where can people find you if they want to hear and see more? Monetary-medals.com. We pay interest on your gold. We’re paying 4% right now. And then, for my pithy, witty, sarcastic, humor, at real Keith Wiener, that’s K-E-I-T-H-W-E-I, on Twitter.

There’s impostors running around with misspellings and all that. Yeah. Well, that’s a telltale sign that you’ve made it.

That’s right. As soon as I’ve arrived, I now have impostors. Exactly.

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Keith, thank you for coming on. And I will catch you in the next episode. Bye, all.